The draw date, location and procedure for Round Three will be confirmed by the end of Round Two by the Organising Committee for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™.
But since some of my African readers have been very insistent, I've run 10000 simulations assuming the draw takes place in December, using the December FIFA ranking.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 29 October 2015.
Qualification chances
First column sorted descending - the opponent's chances are in the second column.
| 99.48% - Ghana | 0.52% - Comoros |
| 92.29% - Algeria | 7.71% - Tanzania |
| 92.29% - Nigeria | 7.71% - Swaziland |
| 92.05% - Côte d'Ivoire | 7.95% - Liberia |
| 91.92% - Senegal | 8.08% - Madagascar |
| 91.56% - Egypt | 8.44% - Chad |
| 87.02% - Cameroon | 12.98% - Niger |
| 80.44% - Mali | 19.56% - Botswana |
| 79.82% - Tunisia | 20.18% - Mauritania |
| 74.59% - Morocco | 25.41% - Equatorial Guinea |
| 72.69% - Gabon | 27.31% - Mozambique |
| 72.59% - Zambia | 27.41% - Sudan |
| 72.48% - Cape Verde Islands | 27.52% - Kenya |
| 68.29% - Congo DR | 31.71% - Burundi |
| 66.84% - Congo | 33.16% - Ethiopia |
| 63.79% - Guinea | 36.21% - Namibia |
| 63.05% - South Africa | 36.95% - Angola |
| 58.42% - Uganda | 41.58% - Togo |
| 57.27% - Burkina Faso | 42.73% - Benin |
| 51.50% - Rwanda | 48.50% - Libya |
Assuming the teams in the first column advance, these would be the pots (sorted by average pot over 10000 simulations):
Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Tunisia
Pot 2: Senegal, Egypt, Congo, Congo DR, Guinea
Pot 3: Cameroon, Mali, Nigeria, Uganda, Morocco
Pot 4: Zambia, Gabon, South Africa, Rwanda, Burkina Faso
Remember, only the group winner goes to the World Cup.
There could be a Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal/Egypt, Nigeria/Cameroon, South Africa/Zambia group and one with Tunisia/Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Uganda, Rwanda.
Broken down by pot (assuming qualification to the next stage):
Pot 4
100.00% - Comoros
99.74% - Swaziland
99.16% - Mozambique
98.64% - Madagascar
98.22% - Chad
96.91% - Namibia
96.89% - Tanzania
94.99% - Botswana
94.43% - Libya
91.11% - Burundi
90.55% - Kenya
90.47% - Burkina Faso
87.94% - Ethiopia
85.30% - Angola
83.59% - Rwanda
80.72% - Mauritania
75.04% - Niger
62.68% - Sudan
44.00% - South Africa
26.37% - Gabon
22.49% - Benin
17.19% - Zambia
14.02% - Togo
13.84% - Liberia
10.86% - Morocco
7.02% - Uganda
3.23% - Equatorial Guinea
Pot 3
84.53% - Equatorial Guinea
83.76% - Uganda
80.96% - Zambia
76.43% - Morocco
72.02% - Gabon
67.39% - Togo
60.88% - Liberia
60.17% - Nigeria
55.59% - South Africa
50.22% - Benin
39.66% - Mali
35.61% - Sudan
26.45% - Cameroon
24.96% - Niger
19.28% - Mauritania
16.31% - Rwanda
14.70% - Angola
12.06% - Ethiopia
9.53% - Burkina Faso
9.45% - Kenya
8.89% - Burundi
7.51% - Guinea
5.53% - Libya
5.01% - Botswana
4.36% - Congo DR
3.11% - Tanzania
3.09% - Namibia
2.02% - Congo
1.78% - Chad
1.52% - Egypt
1.36% - Madagascar
0.84% - Mozambique
0.26% - Swaziland
Pot 2
92.90% - Congo DR
90.37% - Guinea
89.35% - Egypt
88.38% - Congo
72.09% - Cameroon
60.09% - Mali
39.78% - Nigeria
34.69% - Senegal
27.01% - Benin
22.64% - Liberia
20.05% - Tunisia
18.59% - Togo
12.71% - Morocco
12.24% - Equatorial Guinea
9.23% - Uganda
1.85% - Zambia
1.71% - Sudan
1.61% - Gabon
0.41% - South Africa
0.10% - Rwanda
0.04% - Libya
Pot 1
100.00% - Côte d'Ivoire
100.00% - Algeria
100.00% - Ghana
100.00% - Cape Verde Islands
79.95% - Tunisia
65.31% - Senegal
9.61% - Congo
9.13% - Egypt
2.74% - Congo DR
2.64% - Liberia
2.12% - Guinea
1.46% - Cameroon
0.28% - Benin
0.25% - Mali
0.05% - Nigeria
Min/Max points assuming qualification
| Côte d'Ivoire | 856 | 950 |
| Algeria | 822 | 868 |
| Ghana | 766 | 813 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 725 | 805 |
| Tunisia | 656 | 711 |
| Senegal | 636 | 686 |
| Congo | 577 | 670 |
| Congo DR | 572 | 622 |
| Guinea | 571 | 621 |
| Egypt | 565 | 643 |
| Mali | 538 | 592 |
| Cameroon | 530 | 610 |
| Nigeria | 514 | 568 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 478 | 557 |
| Zambia | 466 | 498 |
| Uganda | 463 | 550 |
| Gabon | 458 | 498 |
| South Africa | 447 | 487 |
| Morocco | 442 | 553 |
| Togo | 433 | 574 |
| Liberia | 422 | 613 |
| Benin | 415 | 597 |
| Rwanda | 379 | 461 |
| Burkina Faso | 366 | 429 |
| Niger | 364 | 483 |
| Mauritania | 353 | 466 |
| Angola | 352 | 458 |
| Sudan | 350 | 533 |
| Ethiopia | 346 | 456 |
| Botswana | 343 | 426 |
| Burundi | 335 | 449 |
| Libya | 329 | 427 |
| Kenya | 312 | 442 |
| Namibia | 312 | 403 |
| Madagascar | 300 | 414 |
| Mozambique | 294 | 384 |
| Tanzania | 293 | 407 |
| Swaziland | 288 | 381 |
| Chad | 263 | 416 |
| Comoros | 165 | 349 |
What will be the clasament with points? to see if there is any chance for the teams to climb from one pot to higher pot?
ReplyDeleteAdded. Egypt can only climb to pot 1 (assuming 2 wins vs. Chad) only if at least one of Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Ghana, Cape Verde Islands and Tunisia fail to qualify.
DeleteAlso, by the looks of it, you need Senegal and Congo to either miss out or qualify with 2 draws.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletesee that in eloratings.net
DeleteCongo loss against Cameroon in CHAN qualifiers,,, what is the classment now ?
DeleteThank you for the effort.
ReplyDeleteThere is no informations about the date of the draw?
Can it be later than Taking into account that FIFA days in march are already taken for CAN17 qualifiers
all are waiting for date of the draw,,, hoping to be later as possible as they can,,
Deleteyes later as possible, ideally after qualification afcon 2017 it's important to have a real idea of fifa ranking at this time
DeleteDo you know when the drawing will take place?
ReplyDeleteThere is some sort of mistake in the stats in the Pot 1 scenario. How can Senegal have a 60% chance of making Pot 1, if Tunisia has an 80% chance? There is only one slot for grab, so the percentages should add up to 100%.
ReplyDeletethe author said those %s are for IF the team wins their playoff so you need to adjust for whether they will make it or not as per the first set of head to head %s
DeletePot 1 percentages would then be calculated as follows
99.48%*100% - Ghana
92.29%*100% - Algeria
92.29%*0.05% - Nigeria
92.05%*100% - Côte d'Ivoire
7.95%*2.64% - Liberia
91.92%*65.31% - Senegal
91.56%*9.13% - Egypt
87.02%*1.46% - Cameroon
80.44%*0.25% - Mali
79.82%*79.95% - Tunisia
72.48%*100% - Cape Verde Islands
68.29%*2.74% - Congo DR
66.84%*9.61% - Congo
63.79%*2.12% - Guinea
42.73%*0.28% - Benin
ie
Delete99.48% - Ghana
92.29% - Algeria
92.05% - Côte d'Ivoire
72.48% - Cape Verde Islands
63.82% - Tunisia
60.03% - Senegal
8.36% - Egypt
6.42% - Congo
1.87% - Congo DR
1.35% - Guinea
1.24% - Cameroon
0.20% - Mali
0.20% - Liberia
0.12% - Benin
0.05% - Nigeria
The third round of African qualifying is a group stage with 5 groups of 4 countries and the first matches are scheduled for October 2016. The draw date for this stage is June 24th 2016 and the 4 seeding pots of 5 countries will be ranked according to the June 2016 FIFA-ranking. Ranking date of this ranking is June 2nd 2016, so for African teams only the CHAN Cup 2016 in January (counting as friendlies for ranking purposes), two matchdays of Africa Cup 2017 Qualifying late March and the occasional friendly will offer opportunities to improve their ranking.
ReplyDeleteThese are the elo-predicted points and positions in the June 2016 ranking, based on the currently scheduled matches:
1 Algeria 821 (33)
2 Cote d'Ivoire 806 (36)
3 Cape Verde Islands 786 (37)
4 Ghana 768 (38)
5 Senegal 697 (42)
--
6 Tunisia 644 (47)
7 Cameroon 628 (49)
8 Nigeria 623 (50)
9 Guinea 594 (59)
10 Uganda 568.2 (61)
--
11 Egypt 568.1 (61)
12 Congo 557 (64)
13 Mali 552 (65)
14 Congo DR 549 (66)
15 South Africa 509 (70)
--
16 Zambia 467 (74)
17 Burkina Faso 415 (83)
18 Morocco 411 (85)
19 Gabon 405 (88)
20 Libya 338 (100)
Thanks Ed!
Delete