Sweden (1723) vs. Denmark (1723)
Norway (1638) vs. Hungary (1632)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1728) vs. Republic of Ireland (1720)
Ukraine (1788) vs. Slovenia (1598)
As you'd expect, the chances of qualifying are around 50% for most of the teams.
72.36% - Ukraine
50.63% - Norway
50.51% - Denmark
50.44% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
49.56% - Republic of Ireland
49.49% - Sweden
49.37% - Hungary
27.64% - Slovenia
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.
Of course, the Elo rating knows nothing about Slovenia 75% record in play-offs - including the EURO 2000 play-off vs. Ukraine. (I missed the EURO 2004 elimination at the hand of Croatia.)
I ran the first EURO 2016 sims in April 2015 and the last in September 2015.
Using the qualification chances above for the teams in the play-offs and 100% for those already qualified, let's look at the differences.
Most improved from April:
| Turkey | 8.32 | 100 | 91.68 |
| Albania | 39.82 | 100 | 60.18 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 16.78 | 50.44 | 33.66 |
| Northern Ireland | 72.79 | 100 | 27.21 |
| Poland | 76.55 | 100 | 23.45 |
| Iceland | 77.41 | 100 | 22.59 |
| Russia | 81.55 | 100 | 18.45 |
| Wales | 82.8 | 100 | 17.2 |
| Switzerland | 86.14 | 100 | 13.86 |
| Republic of Ireland | 36.94 | 49.56 | 12.62 |
Most deteriorated from April:
| Netherlands | 91.22 | 0 | -91.22 |
| Scotland | 48.96 | 0 | -48.96 |
| Israel | 45.79 | 0 | -45.79 |
| Sweden | 87.34 | 49.49 | -37.85 |
| Denmark | 85.49 | 50.51 | -34.98 |
| Slovenia | 60.1 | 27.64 | -32.46 |
| Serbia | 16.57 | 0 | -16.57 |
| Finland | 11.07 | 0 | -11.07 |
| Greece | 8.34 | 0 | -8.34 |
| Bulgaria | 7.65 | 0 | -7.65 |
Most improved from September:
| Turkey | 25.7 | 100 | 74.3 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 20.41 | 50.44 | 30.03 |
| Albania | 73.69 | 100 | 26.31 |
| Croatia | 85.86 | 100 | 14.14 |
| Northern Ireland | 90.27 | 100 | 9.73 |
| Poland | 90.29 | 100 | 9.71 |
| Russia | 90.54 | 100 | 9.46 |
| Republic of Ireland | 44.76 | 49.56 | 4.8 |
| Romania | 98.09 | 100 | 1.91 |
| Switzerland | 98.68 | 100 | 1.32 |
Most deteriorated from September:
| Netherlands | 47.65 | 0 | -47.65 |
| Denmark | 75.07 | 50.51 | -24.56 |
| Norway | 73.21 | 50.63 | -22.58 |
| Israel | 21.67 | 0 | -21.67 |
| Hungary | 67.41 | 49.37 | -18.04 |
| Sweden | 66.6 | 49.49 | -17.11 |
| Scotland | 11.32 | 0 | -11.32 |
| Ukraine | 81.5 | 72.36 | -9.14 |
| Slovenia | 35.88 | 27.64 | -8.24 |
| Montenegro | 2.52 | 0 | -2.52 |
Slovenia doesn't have a 100% record in play-offs. It lost the Euro 2004 play-off to Croatia.
ReplyDeleteThanks! Updated.
DeleteIt is a rematch of Euro 2000 play-off qualifiers though and Slovenia won the two legs. Massive underdogs this time.
Deletebosnia will do it. 3rd time lucky
ReplyDeleteHi, do the Euro 2016 play-off matches (eg. Bosnia - Rep Ireland) count towards the seedings for Euro 2020 qualifying draw?
ReplyDeleteSo could a team that finished 3rd in their group, then goes on to win the home and away play-off matches, actually gain more points than a team that finished ahead of them in their group??
Seedings for EURO 2020 qualifying draw will be determined based on the results of the 2018-19 Nations league, not by coefficients. However, the seedings for the Nations league will be determined by coefficients, and the play-offs do count, so yes, a team can benefit from participating in the play-offs.
DeleteThanks nogomet!
Delete