Only two matches left - both friendlies as far as FIFA are concerned. They are actually CHAN qualifiers.
This is how the points and ranks could change for these 4 teams:
Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank
Côte d'Ivoire | 863 | 890 | 26 | 22 |
Ghana | 793 | 817 | 30 | 28 |
Congo | 593 | 625 | 52 | 47 |
Cameroon | 572 | 597 | 60 | 51 |
In the table below I've used the minimum points for these teams.
Best movers:
39 - Chad
38 - Cyprus
36 - São Tomé e Príncipe
Worst movers:
-44 - Sudan
-36 - Armenia
-30 - Dominican Republic
Best movers in the top 50:
19 - Turkey
13 - Serbia and Paraguay
12 - Republic of Ireland
Worst movers in the top 50:
-18 - Slovenia
-14 - Israel
-12 - Norway
Seven teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Belgium (1 - 2 in June 2015)
Chile (5 - 6 in April 1998)
Austria (10 - 11 in October 2015)
St. Kitts and Nevis (101 - 106 in November 2012)
Aruba (112 - 115 in October 2015)
Belize (117 - 118 in July 2015)
South Sudan (134 - 144 in October 2015)
Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:
Honduras (95 - 95 in November 1998)
Djibouti (207 - 207 in July 2015)
Nine teams will drop to new lows:
Lithuania (123 - 119 in November 2012)
Kuwait (133 - 128 in February 2015)
Moldova (154 - 149 in July 1994)
New Zealand (159 - 156 in September 2007)
Indonesia (174 - 171 in October 2015)
Suriname (184 - 181 in October 2015)
Nepal (192 - 190 in October 2015)
Sri Lanka (194 - 193 in February 2013)
Solomon Islands (199 - 197 in October 2015)
Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:
Liberia (86 - 83 in November 2002) - 13 years
Swaziland (130 - 123 in July 2008) - 7 years and 4 months
Kyrgyzstan (124 - 124 in September 2008) - 7 years and 2 months
Turkey (18 - 12 in June 2009) - 6 years and 5 months
Northern Ireland (at least 30 - 30 in October 2009) - 6 years and 1 month
Uganda (68 - 63 in October 2010) - 5 years and 1 month
Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:
FYR Macedonia (139 - 147 in May 1994) - 21 years and 6 months
Honduras (95 - 95 in November 1998) - 17 years
Netherlands (16 - 21 in June 2000) - 15 years and 5 months
New Caledonia (180 - 188 in May 2006) - 9 years and 6 months
Mozambique (125 - 126 in April 2007) - 8 years and 7 months
Burkina Faso (93 - 111 in June 2008) - 7 years and 5 months
Slovenia (64 - 73 in October 2008) - 7 years and 1 month
Armenia (127 - 131 in June 2009) - 6 years and 5 months
Denmark (35 - 36 in May 2010) - 5 years and 6 months
Puerto Rico (170 - 170 in September 2010) - 5 years and 2 months
Tahiti (191 - 194 in September 2010) - 5 years and 2 months
Chile will be ranked above Brazil for the first time ever.
Northern Ireland will be ranked above USA for the first time ever.
Cape Verde Islands will be ranked above Denmark and USA for the first time ever.
Hungary will be ranked above Denmark for the first time ever.
Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan will be ranked above Kuwait for the first time ever.
Kazakhstan will be ranked above FYR Macedonia for the first time ever.
Guam will be ranked above New Zealand for the first time ever.
Timor-Leste will be ranked above India for the first time ever.
November 2015 rank - Team - November 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Belgium | 1440 | 2 | 53 |
2 | Germany | 1388 | 0 | -13 |
3 | Argentina | 1383 | -2 | -36 |
4 | Portugal | 1364 | 0 | 129 |
5 | Chile | 1288 | 4 | 111 |
6 | Spain | 1287 | 0 | 64 |
7 | Colombia | 1233 | -2 | 5 |
8 | Brazil | 1208 | -1 | 4 |
9 | England | 1179 | 1 | 18 |
10 | Austria | 1130 | 1 | 30 |
11 | Switzerland | 1073 | 1 | 29 |
12 | Uruguay | 1051 | 8 | 132 |
13 | Italy | 1040 | 4 | 78 |
14 | Romania | 1039 | -1 | -3 |
15 | Wales | 1032 | -7 | -163 |
16 | Netherlands | 976 | -2 | -28 |
17 | Czech Republic | 974 | -2 | -9 |
18 | Turkey | 941 | 19 | 224 |
19 | Croatia | 924 | -3 | -41 |
20 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 923 | 10 | 136 |
21 | Ecuador | 921 | 10 | 156 |
22 | Russia | 885 | 4 | 40 |
23 | France | 881 | -1 | -18 |
23 | Mexico | 881 | 4 | 39 |
25 | Algeria | 872 | -6 | -55 |
26 | Côte d'Ivoire | 863 | -5 | -53 |
27 | Slovakia | 857 | -9 | -79 |
28 | Ukraine | 806 | -4 | -68 |
29 | Northern Ireland | 797 | 6 | 73 |
30 | Ghana | 793 | -5 | -56 |
31 | Iceland | 792 | -8 | -90 |
32 | Cape Verde Islands | 762 | 9 | 61 |
33 | Hungary | 759 | 0 | 18 |
33 | USA | 759 | -4 | -48 |
35 | Denmark | 743 | -7 | -92 |
36 | Albania | 723 | -4 | -32 |
37 | Greece | 718 | 7 | 42 |
38 | Poland | 712 | 5 | 32 |
39 | Senegal | 678 | -1 | -35 |
40 | Costa Rica | 671 | 2 | -20 |
41 | Tunisia | 668 | -5 | -54 |
42 | Republic of Ireland | 659 | 12 | 72 |
43 | Iran | 651 | -4 | -52 |
44 | Scotland | 649 | -4 | -53 |
45 | Sweden | 647 | 0 | -25 |
46 | Norway | 637 | -12 | -102 |
47 | Paraguay | 610 | 14 | 58 |
48 | Korea Republic | 606 | 5 | 16 |
49 | Serbia | 605 | 14 | 67 |
50 | Japan | 603 | 5 | 21 |
51 | Congo | 593 | -2 | -43 |
52 | Guinea | 589 | 3 | 7 |
53 | Trinidad and Tobago | 588 | 6 | 24 |
54 | Congo DR | 587 | 6 | 24 |
55 | Finland | 586 | 9 | 52 |
56 | Egypt | 583 | -5 | -37 |
56 | Peru | 583 | -6 | -40 |
58 | Nigeria | 582 | -6 | -18 |
59 | Australia | 573 | -1 | 6 |
60 | Cameroon | 572 | -12 | -68 |
61 | Israel | 559 | -14 | -100 |
61 | Jamaica | 559 | -4 | -17 |
63 | Mali | 552 | -1 | 6 |
64 | Slovenia | 547 | -18 | -115 |
65 | Panama | 515 | 0 | -14 |
66 | Bulgaria | 497 | 12 | 83 |
67 | United Arab Emirates | 495 | 3 | 4 |
68 | Uganda | 491 | 7 | 36 |
69 | Equatorial Guinea | 487 | -2 | -23 |
70 | Belarus | 479 | 28 | 129 |
71 | Uzbekistan | 477 | 3 | 13 |
71 | Zambia | 477 | 0 | -10 |
73 | Gabon | 470 | -8 | -59 |
73 | Haiti | 470 | 4 | 52 |
75 | South Africa | 461 | -2 | -4 |
76 | Cyprus | 444 | 38 | 144 |
77 | Bolivia | 442 | -10 | -68 |
78 | Montenegro | 426 | -6 | -44 |
79 | Morocco | 422 | 1 | 15 |
80 | Antigua and Barbuda | 417 | 3 | 17 |
80 | Saudi Arabia | 417 | 8 | 33 |
82 | Jordan | 411 | 17 | 63 |
83 | Venezuela | 408 | -14 | -93 |
84 | China PR | 403 | -3 | -2 |
85 | Qatar | 397 | 7 | 32 |
86 | Liberia | 394 | 9 | 34 |
87 | Iraq | 392 | -2 | -4 |
88 | Togo | 386 | -9 | -25 |
89 | Faroe Islands | 385 | -4 | -11 |
90 | Estonia | 370 | -3 | -18 |
91 | Guatemala | 367 | -9 | -34 |
92 | Oman | 365 | 10 | 27 |
93 | Burkina Faso | 363 | -17 | -64 |
94 | El Salvador | 361 | 0 | -2 |
95 | Honduras | 359 | -6 | -20 |
96 | Rwanda | 356 | -3 | -8 |
97 | Malawi | 351 | 4 | 12 |
98 | Angola | 344 | -1 | -9 |
99 | Latvia | 342 | 4 | 7 |
100 | Nicaragua | 341 | -5 | -19 |
101 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 340 | 11 | 37 |
102 | Canada | 335 | 2 | 2 |
103 | Benin | 333 | -3 | -8 |
104 | Mauritania | 328 | -15 | -51 |
105 | Botswana | 327 | 6 | 22 |
105 | Niger | 327 | 15 | 40 |
107 | Burundi | 321 | 6 | 19 |
108 | Cuba | 312 | 9 | 18 |
109 | Zimbabwe | 305 | 0 | -8 |
110 | Central African Republic | 302 | 16 | 31 |
111 | Georgia | 301 | -1 | -7 |
112 | Aruba | 299 | 3 | 0 |
113 | Libya | 297 | -8 | -31 |
114 | Ethiopia | 294 | -6 | -21 |
115 | Azerbaijan | 293 | -10 | -35 |
115 | Bahrain | 293 | 8 | 10 |
117 | Belize | 292 | 1 | 0 |
118 | Madagascar | 290 | 9 | 28 |
118 | Namibia | 290 | 7 | 16 |
120 | Korea DPR | 288 | 9 | 36 |
121 | Sierra Leone | 281 | 0 | -5 |
121 | Turkmenistan | 281 | 34 | 109 |
123 | Lithuania | 279 | -7 | -19 |
124 | Kyrgyzstan | 277 | 22 | 82 |
125 | Kenya | 274 | 6 | 29 |
125 | Mozambique | 274 | -18 | -53 |
127 | Armenia | 271 | -36 | -106 |
128 | Sudan | 267 | -44 | -132 |
129 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 262 | -7 | -22 |
130 | Swaziland | 258 | 5 | 34 |
131 | Kazakhstan | 256 | 11 | 57 |
132 | Syria | 254 | -9 | -29 |
133 | Kuwait | 252 | -5 | -8 |
134 | South Sudan | 246 | 10 | 48 |
135 | Tanzania | 245 | 1 | 27 |
136 | Chad | 240 | 39 | 140 |
137 | Philippines | 236 | -3 | -2 |
138 | Palestine | 233 | -8 | -13 |
139 | FYR Macedonia | 230 | -7 | -9 |
140 | Lebanon | 228 | 0 | 27 |
141 | Guinea-Bissau | 216 | 6 | 23 |
142 | Barbados | 206 | 12 | 31 |
143 | St. Lucia | 204 | -4 | -4 |
144 | Thailand | 202 | 1 | 6 |
145 | Hong Kong | 199 | 8 | 19 |
146 | Luxembourg | 197 | -4 | -2 |
147 | Lesotho | 193 | -7 | -8 |
147 | Vietnam | 193 | 2 | 6 |
149 | Dominican Republic | 187 | -30 | -103 |
150 | Curaçao | 182 | 2 | 1 |
151 | Bermuda | 181 | -13 | -28 |
152 | Guyana | 179 | -15 | -31 |
152 | Singapore | 179 | 5 | 15 |
154 | Moldova | 177 | -22 | -62 |
155 | Guam | 170 | -5 | -13 |
156 | Afghanistan | 168 | -6 | -15 |
157 | São Tomé e Príncipe | 165 | 36 | 117 |
158 | Malta | 164 | -1 | 0 |
159 | New Zealand | 163 | -11 | -25 |
160 | Tajikistan | 159 | 0 | 3 |
161 | Myanmar | 157 | 2 | 10 |
162 | Timor-Leste | 155 | 8 | 37 |
163 | Liechtenstein | 154 | -7 | -16 |
164 | Samoa | 152 | -2 | 0 |
165 | American Samoa | 144 | -1 | 0 |
166 | Maldives | 141 | 10 | 45 |
167 | Grenada | 137 | -8 | -22 |
168 | Gambia | 135 | -7 | -19 |
169 | Cook Islands | 132 | -3 | 0 |
170 | Puerto Rico | 129 | -5 | -5 |
171 | Malaysia | 127 | 0 | 16 |
172 | India | 122 | -5 | -6 |
173 | Mauritius | 117 | -5 | -6 |
174 | Indonesia | 108 | -3 | -3 |
175 | Dominica | 104 | -1 | 2 |
176 | Laos | 90 | 3 | 5 |
177 | Comoros | 89 | 16 | 41 |
178 | US Virgin Islands | 88 | 0 | 0 |
179 | Yemen | 81 | 1 | -1 |
180 | Bangladesh | 80 | 2 | 3 |
180 | Bhutan | 80 | -7 | -26 |
180 | New Caledonia | 80 | -11 | -40 |
183 | Cambodia | 78 | 3 | 12 |
184 | Suriname | 77 | -3 | -2 |
185 | Pakistan | 76 | -8 | -13 |
186 | Brunei Darussalam | 74 | 1 | 13 |
187 | Chinese Taipei | 71 | -4 | 2 |
188 | Montserrat | 67 | -4 | 0 |
189 | Fiji | 60 | 0 | 0 |
189 | Seychelles | 60 | -5 | -7 |
191 | Tahiti | 56 | -3 | -4 |
192 | Nepal | 51 | -2 | 0 |
193 | Cayman Islands | 49 | -2 | 0 |
194 | Sri Lanka | 45 | -3 | -4 |
195 | Macau | 44 | -2 | -4 |
196 | San Marino | 35 | 0 | 0 |
197 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 33 | 0 | 0 |
198 | British Virgin Islands | 27 | 1 | 0 |
199 | Solomon Islands | 26 | -2 | -7 |
200 | Tonga | 17 | 0 | 0 |
201 | Vanuatu | 13 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Eritrea | 8 | 0 | 0 |
203 | Mongolia | 6 | 0 | 0 |
203 | Somalia | 6 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Andorra | 5 | 0 | 0 |
206 | Papua New Guinea | 4 | 0 | 0 |
207 | Anguilla | 0 | 1 | 0 |
207 | Bahamas | 0 | 1 | 0 |
207 | Djibouti | 0 | -1 | -4 |
If FIFA considers CHAN qualifiers as friendlies, I think this is a good sign that UEFA Nations League matches will also be considered as friendlies by FIFA.
ReplyDeleteThings could go both ways.
DeleteI"ve added the september-november games in my database, but fail to calculate the correct scores for some countries. Haven't checked them all in details, but how Haiti gets their current score? Somehow i'm missing 24 points (2,04 after dividing by 12 (# games) and the 85% continent factor). After checking FIFA's website, i see they give the same points to the games as i do... Other teams i fail to calculate correct are Ghana
ReplyDeleteUSA, Korea Republic, Peru, Panama, United Arab Emirates, El Salvador,
Malawi, Canada, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Palestine, Lebanon, Myanmar and Bangladesh (i haven't checked them all, but they seem to be correct at first view). Someone who could help me?
For CONCACAF teams who played a Gold Cup match on 7 and 8 July 2015, FIFA used 9 July 2015 instead of 4 June 2015 rankings to calculate the points. Maybe this is the reason for miscalculations.
DeleteJeroen, here's the detailed calculation for Haiti for november 2015:
ReplyDeletecycle date opponent type pts rankdat pos wght stat conf conf matchpts
4 11-11-2011 ATG FIFA World Cup 2014 Q 0 okt-11 90 1.10 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
4 15-11-2011 ATG FIFA World Cup 2014 Q 3 okt-11 90 1.10 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 726.000
4 9-9-2012 BER Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 sep-12 102 0.98 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 646.800
4 11-9-2012 PUR Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 sep-12 137 0.63 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 415.800
3 14-11-2012 GUY Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 nov-12 116 0.84 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 554.400
3 18-11-2012 GRN Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 Q 3 nov-12 149 0.51 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 336.600
3 7-12-2012 TRI Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 1 nov-12 79 1.21 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 266.200
3 9-12-2012 DOM Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 3 nov-12 92 1.08 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 712.800
3 11-12-2012 ATG Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 3 nov-12 121 0.79 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 521.400
3 14-12-2012 CUB Caribbean Nations Cup 2012 0 nov-12 141 0.59 2.5 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
3 19-1-2013 CHI Friendly 2013 0 jan-13 30 1.70 1 CONMEBOL 0.940 0.000
3 6-2-2013 BOL Friendly 2013 0 jan-13 41 1.59 1 CONMEBOL 0.940 0.000
3 20-3-2013 OMA Friendly 2013 0 mrt-13 105 0.95 1 AFC 0.870 0.000
3 24-3-2013 DOM Friendly 2013 0 mrt-13 96 1.04 1 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
3 8-6-2013 ESP Friendly 2013 0 jun-13 1 2.00 1 UEFA 0.940 0.000
3 11-6-2013 ITA Friendly 2013 1 jun-13 8 1.92 1 UEFA 0.940 180.480
3 8-7-2013 HON CONCACAF Gold Cup 2013 0 jul-13 55 1.45 3 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
3 12-7-2013 TRI CONCACAF Gold Cup 2013 3 jul-13 87 1.13 3 CONCACAF 0.880 894.960
3 15-7-2013 SLV CONCACAF Gold Cup 2013 0 jul-13 94 1.06 3 CONCACAF 0.880 0.000
3 6-9-2013 KOR Friendly 2013 0 aug-13 56 1.44 1 AFC 0.870 0.000
2 9-9-2014 CHI Friendly 2014 0 aug-14 12 1.88 1 CONMEBOL 0.925 0.000
2 10-10-2014 BRB Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 Q 3 sep-14 161 0.50 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 318.750
2 12-10-2014 SKN Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 Q 1 sep-14 117 0.83 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 176.375
1 12-11-2014 ATG Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 1 okt-14 70 1.30 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 276.250
1 16-11-2014 JAM Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 0 okt-14 113 0.87 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 0.000
1 18-11-2014 CUB Caribbean Nations Cup 2014 3 okt-14 112 0.88 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 561.000
1 27-3-2015 CHN Friendly 2015 1 mrt-15 83 1.17 1 AFC 0.850 99.450
1 7-7-2015 PAN CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 1 jul-15 62 1.38 3 CONCACAF 0.850 351.900
1 10-7-2015 USA CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 0 jul-15 34 1.66 3 CONCACAF 0.850 0.000
1 13-7-2015 HON CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 3 jul-15 80 1.20 3 CONCACAF 0.850 918.000
1 18-7-2015 JAM CONCACAF Gold Cup 2015 0 jul-15 76 1.24 3 CONCACAF 0.850 0.000
1 4-9-2015 GRN FIFA World Cup 2018 Q 3 sep-15 158 0.50 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 318.750
1 8-9-2015 GRN FIFA World Cup 2018 Q 3 sep-15 158 0.50 2.5 CONCACAF 0.850 318.750
ranking date: 5-11-2015
cycle pts MP MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
1 2844.100 10 10 284.41 1 284.41
2 495.125 3 5 99.03 0.5 49.51
3 3466.840 16 16 216.68 0.3 65.00
4 1788.600 4 5 357.72 0.2 71.54
FIFA HAI 470.47
Sorry for the lousy format !
tnx Ed & Nogomet. Found some errors right now (indeed, Haiti was that problem, weird FIFA publishes other results on their site than used in the calculation), but some others will require more work to figure out. We'll look harder ;).
ReplyDelete