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Friday, October 16, 2015

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.



Belgium are the new number 1 team. Germany would have been on top with a win vs. the Republic of Ireland.

The top 21 is set.

Best movers:

38 - Cyprus
36 - São Tomé e Príncipe
31 - Turkmenistan

Worst movers:

-34 - Armenia
-29 - Dominican Republic
-22 - Moldova

Best movers in the top 50:

19 - Turkey
12 - Republic of Ireland
11 - Paraguay

Worst movers in the top 50:

-16 - Slovenia
-12 - Norway and Israel
- 9 - Slovakia

Four teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Belgium (1 - 2 in June 2015)
Chile (5 - 6 in April 1998)
Austria (10 - 11 in October 2015)
South Sudan (at least 135 - 144 in October 2015)

9 teams will drop to new lows:

Lithuania (at most 121 - 119 in November 2012)
Kuwait (at most 132 - 128 in February 2015)
Moldova (154 - 149 in July 1994)
New Zealand (159 - 156 in September 2007)
Indonesia (174 - 171 in October 2015)
Suriname (184 - 181 in October 2015)
Nepal (at most 192 - 190 in October 2015)
Sri Lanka (at most 194 - 193 in February 2013)
Solomon Islands (at most 199 - 197 in October 2015)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Liberia (at least 89 - 88 in December 2002) - 12 years and 11 months
Kyrgyzstan (at least 127 - 127 in October 2008) - 7 years and 1 month
Turkey (18 - 12 in June 2009) - 6 years and 5 months
Northern Ireland (at least 30 - 30 in October 2009) - 6 years and 1 month

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

FYR Macedonia (at most 138 - 147 in May 1994) - 21 years and 6 months
Honduras (at most 93 - 95 in November 1998) - 17 years
Netherlands (16 - 21 in June 2000) - 15 years and 5 months
New Caledonia (180 - 188 in May 2006) - 9 years and 6 months
Slovenia (at most 62 - 62 in July 2009) - 6 years and 4 months
Armenia (at most 125 - 125 in September 2009) - 6 years and 2 months
Denmark (35 - 36 in May 2010) - 5 years and 6 months
Puerto Rico (170 - 170 in September 2010) - 5 years and 2 months
Tahiti (at most 191 - 194 in September 2010) - 5 years and 2 months

Chile will be ranked above Brazil for the first time ever.
Northern Ireland will be ranked above USA for the first time ever.
Cape Verde Islands will be ranked above Denmark and USA for the first time ever.
Hungary will be ranked above Denmark for the first time ever.
Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan will be ranked above Kuwait for the first time ever.
Kazakhstan will be ranked above FYR Macedonia for the first time ever.
Guam will be ranked above New Zealand for the first time ever.
Timor-Leste will be ranked above India for the first time ever.

Probable November 2015 rank - Team - Probable November 2015 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Belgium 1440 2 53
2 Germany 1388 0 -13
3 Argentina 1383 -2 -36
4 Portugal 1364 0 129
5 Chile 1288 4 111
6 Spain 1287 0 64
7 Colombia 1233 -2 5
8 Brazil 1208 -1 4
9 England 1179 1 18
10 Austria 1130 1 30
11 Switzerland 1073 1 29
12 Uruguay 1051 8 132
13 Italy 1040 4 78
14 Romania 1039 -1 -3
15 Wales 1032 -7 -163
16 Netherlands 976 -2 -28
17 Czech Republic 974 -2 -9
18 Turkey 941 19 224
19 Croatia 924 -3 -41
20 Bosnia-Herzegovina 923 10 136
21 Ecuador 921 10 156
22 Côte d'Ivoire 900 -1 -16
23 Russia 885 3 40
24 France 881 -2 -18
24 Mexico 881 3 39
26 Algeria 872 -7 -55
27 Slovakia 857 -9 -79
28 Ukraine 806 -4 -68
29 Northern Ireland 797 6 73
30 Iceland 792 -7 -90
31 Ghana 777 -6 -72
32 Cape Verde Islands 762 9 61
33 Hungary 759 0 18
33 USA 759 -4 -48
35 Denmark 743 -7 -92
36 Albania 723 -4 -32
37 Greece 718 7 42
38 Poland 712 5 32
39 Tunisia 689 -3 -33
40 Senegal 687 -2 -26
41 Costa Rica 671 1 -20
42 Republic of Ireland 659 12 72
43 Iran 651 -4 -52
44 Scotland 649 -4 -53
45 Sweden 647 0 -25
46 Norway 637 -12 -102
47 Paraguay 610 14 58
48 Korea Republic 606 5 16
49 Serbia 605 14 67
50 Japan 603 5 21
51 Nigeria 601 1 1
52 Cameroon 597 -4 -43
53 Congo 593 -4 -43
54 Trinidad and Tobago 588 5 24
55 Finland 586 9 52
56 Egypt 583 -5 -37
56 Peru 583 -6 -40
58 Australia 573 0 6
58 Congo DR 573 2 10
60 Guinea 570 -5 -12
61 Mali 565 1 19
62 Israel 559 -15 -100
62 Jamaica 559 -5 -17
64 Slovenia 547 -18 -115
65 Panama 515 0 -14
66 Bulgaria 497 12 83
67 United Arab Emirates 495 3 4
68 Equatorial Guinea 487 -1 -23
69 Zambia 485 2 -2
70 Belarus 479 28 129
71 Gabon 478 -6 -51
72 Uzbekistan 477 2 13
73 Uganda 474 2 19
74 Haiti 470 3 52
75 South Africa 464 -2 -1
76 Cyprus 444 38 144
77 Bolivia 442 -10 -68
78 Montenegro 426 -6 -44
79 Antigua and Barbuda 417 4 17
79 Saudi Arabia 417 9 33
81 Jordan 411 18 63
81 Togo 411 -2 0
83 Venezuela 408 -14 -93
84 China PR 403 -3 -2
85 Qatar 397 7 32
86 Liberia 394 9 34
87 Iraq 392 -2 -4
88 Faroe Islands 385 -3 -11
89 Estonia 370 -2 -18
90 Guatemala 367 -8 -34
91 Oman 365 11 27
92 Morocco 364 -12 -43
93 El Salvador 361 1 -2
94 Honduras 359 -5 -20
95 Rwanda 356 -2 -8
96 Burkina Faso 354 -20 -73
97 Malawi 351 4 12
98 Latvia 342 5 7
99 Nicaragua 341 -4 -19
100 St. Kitts and Nevis 340 12 37
101 Canada 335 3 2
102 Benin 333 -2 -8
103 Burundi 329 10 27
104 Botswana 327 7 22
105 Angola 323 -8 -30
106 Mauritania 316 -17 -63
107 Zimbabwe 315 2 2
108 Cuba 312 9 18
108 Libya 312 -3 -16
110 Georgia 301 0 -7
111 Aruba 299 4 0
111 Niger 299 9 12
113 Azerbaijan 293 -8 -35
113 Bahrain 293 10 10
115 Belize 292 3 0
116 Madagascar 290 11 28
116 Namibia 290 9 16
118 Korea DPR 288 11 36
119 Sudan 285 -35 -114
120 Ethiopia 282 -12 -33
121 Sierra Leone 281 0 -5
121 Turkmenistan 281 34 109
123 Lithuania 279 -7 -19
124 Kyrgyzstan 277 22 82
125 Kenya 274 6 29
126 Armenia 271 -35 -106
127 Central African Republic 269 -1 -2
128 Mozambique 265 -21 -62
129 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 262 -7 -22
130 Swaziland 258 5 34
131 Kazakhstan 256 11 57
132 Syria 254 -9 -29
133 Kuwait 252 -5 -8
134 South Sudan 246 10 48
135 Tanzania 245 1 27
136 Philippines 236 -2 -2
137 Palestine 233 -7 -13
138 FYR Macedonia 230 -6 -9
139 Lebanon 228 1 27
140 Guinea-Bissau 216 7 23
141 Barbados 206 13 31
142 St. Lucia 204 -3 -4
143 Thailand 202 2 6
144 Hong Kong 199 9 19
145 Luxembourg 197 -3 -2
146 Vietnam 193 3 6
147 Lesotho 188 -7 -13
148 Dominican Republic 187 -29 -103
149 Chad 183 26 83
150 Curaçao 182 2 1
151 Bermuda 181 -13 -28
152 Guyana 179 -15 -31
152 Singapore 179 5 15
154 Moldova 177 -22 -62
155 Guam 170 -5 -13
156 Afghanistan 168 -6 -15
157 São Tomé e Príncipe 165 36 117
158 Malta 164 -1 0
159 New Zealand 163 -11 -25
160 Tajikistan 159 0 3
161 Myanmar 157 2 10
162 Timor-Leste 155 8 37
163 Liechtenstein 154 -7 -16
164 Samoa 152 -2 0
165 American Samoa 144 -1 0
166 Maldives 141 10 45
167 Grenada 137 -8 -22
168 Gambia 135 -7 -19
169 Cook Islands 132 -3 0
170 Puerto Rico 129 -5 -5
171 Malaysia 127 0 16
172 India 122 -5 -6
173 Mauritius 117 -5 -6
174 Indonesia 108 -3 -3
175 Dominica 104 -1 2
176 Laos 90 3 5
177 Comoros 89 16 41
178 US Virgin Islands 88 0 0
179 Yemen 81 1 -1
180 Bangladesh 80 2 3
180 Bhutan 80 -7 -26
180 New Caledonia 80 -11 -40
183 Cambodia 78 3 12
184 Suriname 77 -3 -2
185 Pakistan 76 -8 -13
186 Brunei Darussalam 74 1 13
187 Chinese Taipei 71 -4 2
188 Montserrat 67 -4 0
189 Fiji 60 0 0
189 Seychelles 60 -5 -7
191 Tahiti 56 -3 -4
192 Nepal 51 -2 0
193 Cayman Islands 49 -2 0
194 Sri Lanka 45 -3 -4
195 Macau 44 -2 -4
196 San Marino 35 0 0
197 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 0 0
198 British Virgin Islands 27 1 0
199 Solomon Islands 26 -2 -7
200 Tonga 17 0 0
201 Vanuatu 13 0 0
202 Eritrea 8 0 0
203 Mongolia 6 0 0
203 Somalia 6 0 0
205 Andorra 5 0 0
206 Papua New Guinea 4 0 0
207 Anguilla 0 1 0
207 Bahamas 0 1 0
207 Djibouti 0 -1 -4

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33 comments:

  1. HosamOctober 18, 2015 at 1:20 PM

    What is the expected seeding of WC qualifiers group stage draw (CAF)???
    According to elo results

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 18, 2015 at 3:05 PM

      Hossam, the third round of African qualifying is a group stage with 5 groups of 4 countries and the first matches are scheduled for October 2016. The draw date and seeding procedure is yet unknown, although probably there will be 4 pots of 5 countries, ranked according to the prevailing FIFA-ranking at the draw date.
      Elo predicts the following 20 countries to come through the play-offs in round 2 in November and their resulting points and positions in the December 2015 ranking:

      1 Cote d'Ivoire 960 (FIFA 19)
      2 Algeria 868 (25)
      3 Ghana 773 (32)
      4 Cape Verde Islands 765 (34)
      5 Tunisia 728 (38)
      --
      6 Senegal 687 (44)
      7 Egypt 619 (49)
      8 Cameroon 609 (51)
      9 Congo 608 (53)
      10 Mali 605 (55)
      --
      11 Guinea 596 (56)
      12 Nigeria 587 (58)
      13 Congo DR 584 (61)
      14 Morocco 512 (66)
      15 Zambia 494 (69)
      --
      16 Uganda 492 (71)
      17 Gabon 484 (73)
      18 South Africa 460 (76)
      19 Burkina Faso 388 (88)
      20 Libya 380 (91)

      Delete
    2. HosamOctober 18, 2015 at 3:47 PM

      Are these results updated after recent games,, like SENEGAL loss against Algeria&Guniea?
      And Tunisia draw against Gabon??

      Delete
    3. EdOctober 18, 2015 at 10:08 PM

      What do you think Hossam ? Of course: all results up until yesterday were included and the results of the scheduled matches were elo-predicted in above ranking.
      Senegal drops from 713 pts in October to 678 pts in November because of the two (friendly) losses in October (they are predicted to win the return-friendly against Guinea next week), and in November they are predicted to win both WC-qualifiers against Madagascar (530 matchpoints each), so in the December ranking they will climb again with these results to 687 pts.
      On the other hand a WC-qualifier win over Chad delivers Egypt only 325 matchpoints while their first time-frame average is around 350, so that doesn't improve their FIFA-points not substantially.
      Sorry Hossam, you have to be patient with Egypt climbing the ranks again. They have lost a lot of ground in the ranking towards the African top teams with their last two Africa Cup misses, and that can't be repaired in a jiffy. You need consistent, winning performances in matches that really count for the rankings like WC-qualifiers against equal opposition in the third round of African qualifying, before you can start climbing again.

      Delete
    4. HosamOctober 18, 2015 at 10:15 PM

      Sorry Ed for overload ,,, thank you very much

      Delete
    5. EdOctober 18, 2015 at 10:27 PM

      No problem, you're welcome. I can imagine it's hard for an Egypt-fan, first winning three African Cups in a row, being God in Africa, and then missing the next three. The drop is really big and your position in seeding pots will (for the near future) not be at the front row, that's the reality for now. But with important, high-valued African Cup-qualifiers and WC-qualifiers coming next year, there are plenty of chances to get back at that position, maybe next year already.

      Delete
    6. HosamOctober 18, 2015 at 11:16 PM

      We are waiting date of the group stage draw,, willing to be late as early as possible,, the 1st match will be in Octobre 2016,,,
      Thank you again

      Delete
  2. AnonymousOctober 18, 2015 at 2:00 PM

    I am wondering whether you can calculate the probabilities for the 12 AFC teams to make it through to the next stage of World Cup Qualification

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 19, 2015 at 12:57 AM

    Hi! Why CHAN matches are signed as friendly in FIFA.com?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 19, 2015 at 9:14 AM

      Because they are not qualifiers for the African continental cup, the African Cup of Nations.

      Delete
    2. EdgarOctober 23, 2015 at 9:16 AM

      And because CAF asked FIFA to do this.

      Delete
  4. TobcoachOctober 19, 2015 at 1:13 PM

    Belgium the new number 1.... Well deserved, they are the most consistent team at the moment. If things fall their way they could be on top for the coming months, maybe even until March 2016. And maybe we will see another new team on top in May and June 2016. Just maybe...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RafaOctober 21, 2015 at 8:07 AM

      It's highly arguable if Belgium deserves to be considered the number 1 team in the world.

      I disagree.

      They are consistent, but definitely not the most consistent team out there. They have won games against medium teams, and played the FIFA flawed ranking system well.

      But in the end, it's hard to believe that they would fare so well when facing some of the real heavyweights, like Germany, Argentina, Brazil and Chile.

      Delete
    2. UnknownOctober 28, 2015 at 3:13 PM

      Belgium was consistent the last few years (except against Wales :) ) no wonder, with the most expensive team in the world...
      Are they better than Germany, Brazil, e.a. ? Of course not! However, on a good day... who knows? :)
      But that's the Fifa system... we Belgians can only marvel and enjoy. :)

      Delete
  5. AnonymousOctober 23, 2015 at 3:52 AM

    Bosnia will qualify and enter pot 2 at Euros. This is excellent news for Pot 3 and Pot 4 teams there.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousOctober 26, 2015 at 7:21 PM

    Dear friend, i have a big question, the friendly match between ivory coast and morocco desn't appear in the fifa comptabilization, do yiu know why?

    ReplyDelete
  7. UnknownNovember 5, 2015 at 4:01 PM

    Am for Team Uganda Cranes....Uganda Cranes we Go.

    ReplyDelete
  8. UnknownNovember 18, 2015 at 12:25 AM

    The new CAF ranking ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 18, 2015 at 7:00 PM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. UnknownNovember 18, 2015 at 7:21 PM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. UnknownNovember 18, 2015 at 7:23 PM

      1-Cote d'Ivoire 950, 2-Algérie 845, 3-Ghana 778, 4-Cap-Vert 745, 5-Tunisie 711, 6-Sénégal 661, 7 Congo 638, 8-Guinée 621, 9-Egypte 585, 10-Cameroun 583, 11-Mali 552, 12-Nigeria 541,13-Ouganda 510,14-Afrique de sud 487, 15-R.D Congo 480, 16-Zambie 481, 17-Maroc 469, 18-Gabon 468, 19-Libye 427, 20-Burkina Faso.

      Delete
    4. UnknownNovember 18, 2015 at 7:46 PM

      Nouveau classement de la CAF des 20 Equipe qualifiées au tour des poules.1-C.d'Ivoire 950, 2-Algérie 845, 3-Ghana 778, 4-Cap-Vert 745, 5-Tunisie 711, 6-Sénégal 661, 7-Congo 638, 8-Guinée 621, 9-Egypte 585, 10-Cameroun, 11-Mali, 12-Nigeria 541,13-Ouganda, 14-Afrique Sud 487, 15-R.D Congo 481, 16-Zambie 481, 17-Maroc 469, 18-Gabon 468, 19-Libye 427, 20-Burkina Faso 381.

      Delete
    5. HosamNovember 19, 2015 at 12:42 AM

      RD CONGO 580,,, the 10th

      Delete
    6. Mohammed KadiNovember 19, 2015 at 9:00 PM

      10e Cameroun 583, 11 RDCongo 580, 12 Mali 552, 13 Nigeria 541, 14 Ouganda 510, 15 Afrique-Sud 487; le reste sans changement. Le tirage aura mi-juin 2016, les tètes de série seront les équipes qui ont participé aux deux dernières phases 2010-2014. les compétitions débuteront en Octobre 2016 à Novembre 2017.

      Delete
    7. Mohammed KadiNovember 19, 2015 at 10:55 PM

      19/11/2015 Coupe du Monde 2018 : La constitution des chapeaux pour le 3è tour Afrique

      La FIFA a officialisé la formation des chapeaux du tirage au sort pour le 3è tour des éliminatoires de la Coupe du Monde, Russie 2018. La répartition des pays a été faite selon le classement FIFA dernier.
      L’Algérie, le Cap Vert et la Côte d’Ivoire qui dominent le classement sont dans le chapeau 1 en compagnie du Sénégal et du Ghana. Ces cinq équipes ne s’affronteront pas lors de la phase de poule et constitueront les têtes de série.
      Le deuxième pot contient d’autres grosses pointures du football continental à savoir le Cameroun, le Congo, la Guinée, la RD Congo et la Tunisie.
      Tout compte fait, après le tirage au sort, le public verra un groupe de la mort, vu que les deux derniers pots contiennent aussi des nations de football. Le pot 3 regroupe l’Egypte, le Mali, le Nigeria, l’Ouganda et la Zambie. L’Afrique du Sud, le Burkina Faso, le Gabon, la Libye et le Maroc sont logés dans le
      dernier pot 4
      Il n’est pas exclu de retrouver l’Algérie, le Cameroun, le Nigeria et le Maroc dans un groupe, et autre le Sénégal, la Tunisie, l’Egypte et le Gabon dans une poule.
      Les Chapeaux :
      – Pot 1 : Algérie, Cap Vert, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Sénégal.
      – Pot 2 : Cameroun, Congo, Guinée, RD Congo, Tunisie.
      – Pot 3 : Égypte, Mali, Nigeria, Ouganda, Zambie.
      – Pot 4 : Afrique du Sud, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Libye, Maroc.

      Delete
    8. Mohammed KadiNovember 19, 2015 at 11:23 PM

      L’instance internationale du football mondial a fixé le mois de juin 2016 pour ce tirage au sort, sans donner le jour exact.

      Du moins, la Confédération Africaine de Football (Caf) a communiqué mercredi 18 novembre le programme des six rencontres de la phase de groupe de ces éliminatoires, de la manière suivante :

      -1e journée : 3 octobre 2016

      -2e journée : 7 novembre 2016

      -3e journée : 28 août 2017

      -4e journée : 2 septembre 2017

      -5e journée : 2 octobre 2017

      -6e journée : 6 novembre 2017

      Seul le premier de chaque poule sera qualifié pour la phase finale du Mondial prévu du 14 juin au 15 juillet 2018 en Russie.

      Delete
    9. Mohammed KadiNovember 20, 2015 at 2:47 AM

      URGENT: Avec les pots ainsi constitués. Le tirage au sort pour la constitution des poules en directions des éliminatoires va se dérouler le 28 Novembre prochain à Saint-Pétersburg, en Russie. Communiqué du comité de l'organisation de la coupe du monde 2018 du 19 novembre 2015.

      Delete
    10. nogometNovember 20, 2015 at 9:37 AM

      I doubt these dates are correct because they are on Mondays, just outside of the FIFA calendar.

      Delete
    11. EdNovember 20, 2015 at 6:08 PM

      Mohammed, can you give a source for the November 28 draw date?
      http://m.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y=2015/m=11/news=june-draw-for-third-round-of-african-zone-qualifiers-2733952.html says it's June 24th 2016.

      If it's June next year the pot-distribution will be based on the June 2016 ranking. Do you have a source for the pot-distribution you mention ?

      Delete
    12. HosamNovember 20, 2015 at 6:15 PM

      Ed, sorry for overload, we want a post from you about expected June ranking for CAF, based on Elo ratings.

      Delete
  9. EdNovember 21, 2015 at 8:15 AM

    Hossam, I can't give a prediction until the ranking date of the June 2016 ranking is known.
    Maybe you have followed the discussion last year November about the possible ranking dates of this years July ranking for the WC-draw and their rather vast implications on the seeding. I don't want to speculate too much this time, so I will wait until next year's ranking dates are officially published and that will be somewhere in December I guess.

    ReplyDelete