2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.
With the EURO 2016 qualifying now complete, here's a look at how the leagues shape up.
For every team, bar Gibraltar, I've added 10000 points for the 2018 WCQs, while for the 24 EURO 2016 participants I've already included 3 tournament matches.
Changes since the September update (the current update includes both the October group games and the play-offs).
Russia replace Iceland in League A.
Sweden and Turkey replace Norway and Denmark in League B.
Cyprus replace Estonia in League C.
Best movers:
8 - Sweden
7 - Bosnia and Herzegovina
5 - Turkey
Worst movers:
-10 - Iceland
-8 - Denmark
-4 - Slovakia and Israel
1 1 Germany 24916 2 2 England 24501 3 3 Spain 24046 4 4 Belgium 24009 5 6 Portugal 23245 6 5 Austria 23116 7 8 Italy 22547 8 9 Switzerland 22326 9 7 France 22159 10 12 Netherlands 22085 11 11 Ukraine 21473 12 15 Russia 21309 ---------------------------------- 13 20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 21179 14 18 Croatia 21091 15 13 Czech Republic 20625 16 16 Romania 20540 17 25 Sweden 20306 18 14 Slovakia 20257 19 17 Poland 20215 20 10 Iceland 20196 21 24 Hungary 20184 22 22 Republic of Ireland 19698 23 28 Turkey 19625 24 21 Wales 19198 ---------------------------------- 25 29 Slovenia 19047 26 23 Norway 18987 27 19 Denmark 18811 28 26 Northern Ireland 18644 29 32 Scotland 18361 30 30 Albania 18235 31 27 Israel 18091 32 31 Montenegro 17351 33 34 Greece 17111 34 35 Bulgaria 16991 35 33 Finland 16981 36 38 Serbia 16246 37 36 Lithuania 15961 38 39 Cyprus 15671 ---------------------------------- 39 41 Belarus 15168 40 37 Estonia 15160 41 43 Georgia 14643 42 40 Azerbaijan 13941 43 42 Armenia 13365 44 44 Latvia 13241 45 45 Moldova 12710 46 46 FYR Macedonia 12671 47 50 Kazakhstan 12631 48 46 Luxembourg 12191 49 48 Faroe Islands 12130 50 49 Liechtenstein 11710 51 51 Malta 10910 52 52 San Marino 9170 53 53 Andorra 9060 54 54 Gibraltar 7300
League A
Pot 1: Germany, England, Spain, Belgium
Pot 2: Portugal, Austria, Italy, Switzerland
Pot 3: France, Netherlands, Ukraine, Russia
League B
Pot 1: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Romania
Pot 2: Sweden, Slovakia, Poland, Iceland
Pot 3: Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Turkey, Wales
League C
Pot 1: Slovenia, Norway, Denmark, Northern Ireland
Pot 2: Scotland, Albania, Israel, Montenegro
Pot 3: Greece, Bulgaria, Finland, Serbia
Pot 4: Lithuania, Cyprus
League D
Pot 1: Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Azerbaijan
Pot 2: Armenia, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia
Pot 3: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein
Pot 4: Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Gibraltar
Edgar,
ReplyDeleteI can't reproduce the presented coefficient for Hungary. I have (WC14 + 2*EC16 + 2*WC18)/5 = (27052 + 2*26934 + 2*10000)/5 = 20184.
WC14: 270521/10; EC16: (350014+3*18000)/15; WC18: 100000/10.
Rest is ok. I assume you let Russia play a (virtual) WC18 qualifying campaign - instead of using their qualifying campaign for EC16 according to the regulations - to get a comparable, not distorted Russian coefficient.
Thanks Ed! Somehow I had only one win for Hungary in the play-offs. Fixed now.
DeleteO, and I assume that for France you probably deliberately (for the same comparison reasons) ignored the two play-offs they played for WC14 qualifying when substituting their missing EC16 qualifying with WC14Q.
ReplyDelete(while officially their EC16Q should be substituted with their WC18Q, btw).
Always a lot of fuss, how to cope with these hosts and their missing qualifying campaigns, especially when you want to produce a ranking for UNL-seeding that makes sense ;)
That's what I was wondering as well. Why exclude France's play-offs? The seedings for the Nations League will be published after the WC 2018 qualifiers end, including the play-offs. There will be no exclusion of the play-offs like we had recently.
DeleteBecause as soon as the 2018 qualifiers start I will use those results for France.
DeleteYup, I thought a bit about France's 2014 playoffs, then decided against including them.
ReplyDeleteGood thing I kind of like stats :)
There's only one League D side that's played a Euros ... Latvia.
ReplyDeleteKosovo will be at the bottom. Most likely League C will be increased from 14 to 15, with the inclusion of the team ranked 39th (currently Belarus).
ReplyDeleteCan you clarify how France ranking will be calculated ?
ReplyDeleteI see in some site that the WC 2018 qualification campaign will replace missing qualifyers for Euro.
And in UEFA PDF it is written that missing qualifyiers will be replaced by *previous* WC qualification (i.e. WC 2014)...