2018 FIFA World Cup AFC sims (18 December 2015)

Two weeks late, I know :)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 14 December 2015. And assuming Myanmar - Kuwait will finally be played on 19 March 2016 (currently there's no information from FIFA regarding's this match).

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format:



Winners + four best runners-up advance to the 3rd round of WCQ and 2019 AFC Asian Cup finals
The remaining runners-up + all 3rd placed teams + four best 4th placed teams advance to the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.
The remaining 4th placed teams + all the 5th placed teams will go through 2 rounds of play-off matches to determine the final 8 teams to advance to the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.

Most likely to be involved in the Asian Cup play-offs:

100.00% - Bangladesh
100.00% - Bhutan
100.00% - Cambodia
100.00% - Laos
99.96% - Yemen
98.90% - India
98.64% - Timor-Leste
94.54% - Malaysia
90.44% - Maldives
81.78% - Chinese Taipei
78.83% - Myanmar
50.55% - Afghanistan
5.15% - Tajikistan
1.12% - Guam
0.09% - Bahrain

Most likely to have a best 4th placed team:

99.98% - Group D
99.95% - Group H
94.85% - Group B
49.45% - Group E
21.17% - Group G
18.22% - Group F
9.56% - Group C
6.82% - Group A

Top 10 most likely to be among best 4th placed teams:

98.88% - Guam
93.77% - Tajikistan
68.78% - Philippines
49.08% - Afghanistan
31.13% - Bahrain
21.17% - Myanmar
18.22% - Chinese Taipei
9.56% - Maldives
5.46% - Malaysia
1.36% - Timor-Leste

Most likely to advance to the 3rd round of AFC Asian Cup qualification:

100.00% - Kyrgyzstan
100.00% - Philippines
100.00% - Singapore
100.00% - Turkmenistan
99.97% - Lebanon
99.91% - Bahrain
99.79% - Vietnam
99.06% - Hong Kong
98.88% - Guam
96.72% - Palestine
94.85% - Tajikistan
93.33% - Oman
75.06% - Kuwait
74.65% - China PR
68.79% - Jordan
49.45% - Afghanistan
38.20% - Korea DPR
24.78% - United Arab Emirates
21.17% - Myanmar
18.22% - Chinese Taipei
15.40% - Iraq
9.56% - Maldives
5.88% - Saudi Arabia
5.46% - Malaysia
3.68% - Australia
2.81% - Uzbekistan
1.48% - Syria
1.36% - Timor-Leste
1.10% - India
0.25% - Iran
0.10% - Japan
0.04% - Yemen
0.04% - Korea Republic
0.01% - Thailand

Most likely to have a best 2nd placed team:

98.42% - Group E
84.80% - Group F
72.62% - Group A
58.99% - Group H
27.53% - Group B
26.29% - Group C
24.93% - Group G
6.42% - Group D

Top 10 most likely to be among best 2nd placed teams:

86.99% - Syria
50.62% - Korea DPR
48.03% - United Arab Emirates
43.28% - Thailand
41.31% - Iraq
25.35% - China PR
24.55% - Kuwait
21.31% - Saudi Arabia
13.93% - Australia
13.60% - Jordan

Most likely to advance to the next round of World Cup qualification:

100.00% - Qatar
99.99% - Thailand
99.96% - Korea Republic
99.90% - Japan
99.75% - Iran
98.52% - Syria
97.19% - Uzbekistan
96.32% - Australia
94.12% - Saudi Arabia
84.60% - Iraq
75.22% - United Arab Emirates
61.80% - Korea DPR
31.21% - Jordan
25.35% - China PR
24.94% - Kuwait
6.67% - Oman
3.28% - Palestine
0.94% - Hong Kong
0.21% - Vietnam
0.03% - Lebanon

And now, for the seeding, assuming it will use the April 2016 FIFA ranking and there will be 6 pots.

Assuming the top 12 from the list above advance, these would be the pots (sorted by average pot over the 10000 sims):

Pot 1: Iran, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Japan, Australia
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Uzbekistan, Qatar
Pot 5: Iraq, Korea DPR
Pot 6: Thailand, Syria

Broken down by pot (assuming qualification to the next stage):

Pot 6

100.00% - Hong Kong
100.00% - Lebanon
85.21% - Syria
79.24% - Thailand
33.33% - Vietnam
31.48% - Kuwait
26.18% - Korea DPR
13.74% - Iraq
2.74% - Palestine
0.04% - Qatar

Pot 5

80.48% - Iraq
79.57% - Palestine
73.74% - Korea DPR
61.90% - Vietnam
53.93% - Kuwait
34.93% - Oman
27.45% - Qatar
20.19% - Thailand
18.14% - Jordan
13.79% - Syria
3.39% - China PR
0.09% - United Arab Emirates

Pot 4

95.98% - China PR
78.37% - Jordan
72.24% - Qatar
63.87% - Oman
25.76% - United Arab Emirates
22.42% - Saudi Arabia
19.45% - Uzbekistan
17.68% - Palestine
14.60% - Kuwait
5.78% - Iraq
4.79% - Australia
4.76% - Vietnam
0.99% - Syria
0.57% - Thailand
0.08% - Korea DPR

Pot 3

71.15% - Uzbekistan
49.83% - United Arab Emirates
42.98% - Saudi Arabia
28.93% - Australia
20.90% - Japan
3.49% - Jordan
2.57% - Korea Republic
1.20% - Oman
0.63% - China PR
0.27% - Qatar

Pot 2

75.93% - Japan
50.74% - Australia
33.77% - Korea Republic
24.04% - United Arab Emirates
15.09% - Saudi Arabia
9.37% - Uzbekistan
0.13% - Iran

Pot 1

99.87% - Iran
63.66% - Korea Republic
19.52% - Saudi Arabia
15.54% - Australia
3.17% - Japan
0.28% - United Arab Emirates
0.03% - Uzbekistan

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.