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Friday, January 8, 2016

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


Best movers:

18 - Kuwait
16 - Palestine
15 - Saudi Arabia

Worst movers:

-15 - Libya
-11 - Togo
-10 - Bahrain

Worst movers in the top 50:

-8 - Côte d'Ivoire
-7 - Algeria, Ghana
-4 - Congo

Best movers in the top 50:

6 - Costa Rica
5 - Cape Verde Islands
3 - Scotland

One team will improve its best ever ranking:

Hungary (19 - 20 in January 2016)

One will drop to new lows:

Lithuania (130 - 127 in January 2016)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Qatar (at least 82 - 78 in November 2008) - 7 years and 3 months
Saudi Arabia (at least 60 - 57 in March 2010) - 5 years and 11 months

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Bahrain (at most 131 - 138 in January 2001) - 15 years and 1 month
Ghana (at most 40 - 43 in January 2008) - 8 years and 1 month

Hungary will be ranked above Côte d'Ivoire for the first time in the last 11 years and 9 months.
Thailand will be ranked above Bahrain for the first time in the last 11 years and 9 months.
Cape Verde Islands will be ranked above Algeria for the first time in the last 7 years and 6 months.
Saudi Arabia will be ranked above South Africa for the first time in the last 5 years and 9 months.
Saudi Arabia will be ranked above Uzbekistan for the first time in the last 5 years and 1 month.

Probable February 2016 rank - Team - Probable February 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1494 0 0
2 Argentina 1455 0 0
3 Spain 1370 0 0
4 Germany 1347 0 0
5 Chile 1267 0 -2
6 Brazil 1251 0 0
7 Portugal 1219 0 0
8 Colombia 1211 0 0
9 England 1106 0 0
10 Austria 1091 0 0
11 Uruguay 1074 0 0
12 Switzerland 1050 0 0
13 Ecuador 1040 0 0
14 Netherlands 994 0 0
15 Italy 991 0 0
16 Romania 987 0 7
17 Wales 974 0 0
18 Croatia 958 0 0
19 Hungary 945 1 0
20 Turkey 933 1 0
21 Bosnia and Herzegovina 905 1 0
22 Mexico 898 1 0
23 Russia 895 1 0
24 France 868 1 0
25 Czech Republic 860 1 0
25 Slovakia 860 1 0
27 Ukraine 842 2 0
28 Northern Ireland 825 2 0
29 Republic of Ireland 810 2 0
30 Costa Rica 799 7 40
31 USA 793 1 9
32 Cape Verde Islands 790 7 45
33 Côte d'Ivoire 789 -14 -161
34 Poland 787 1 18
35 Sweden 771 -1 0
36 Albania 746 2 0
36 Algeria 746 -8 -99
38 Iceland 709 -2 -52
39 Greece 706 2 0
40 Denmark 692 2 7
41 Ghana 691 -8 -85
42 Trinidad and Tobago 663 8 40
43 Paraguay 652 3 0
44 Peru 644 3 0
44 Tunisia 644 -4 -67
46 Iran 626 -3 -46
47 Senegal 621 -2 -40
48 Scotland 609 4 0
49 Egypt 600 9 15
50 Norway 597 4 6
51 Serbia 590 4 0
52 Finland 583 -8 -80
53 Korea Republic 580 -2 -37
54 Congo 579 -6 -59
55 Saudi Arabia 571 20 97
56 Japan 569 -3 -38
57 Jamaica 568 -2 -22
58 Nigeria 566 8 26
59 Slovenia 565 2 0
60 Panama 564 5 20
61 Congo DR 556 -1 -24
62 Cameroon 548 -5 -38
63 Equatorial Guinea 530 6 26
64 Belarus 514 4 0
65 Australia 510 -6 -73
66 Guinea 503 -17 -121
67 Uzbekistan 502 6 13
68 Bolivia 500 2 0
69 Israel 498 2 0
69 South Africa 498 5 12
71 Bulgaria 494 1 0
72 United Arab Emirates 486 -8 -61
73 Morocco 481 3 12
74 Uganda 479 -12 -74
75 Mali 475 -12 -77
76 Zambia 463 -9 -53
77 Benin 458 1 0
78 Gabon 452 -1 -16
79 Qatar 444 5 40
80 Cyprus 441 0 0
81 Haiti 424 -2 -29
82 Venezuela 423 1 11
83 Jordan 408 3 10
84 Montenegro 403 1 0
85 Canada 402 3 14
86 Burkina Faso 380 3 -5
87 Estonia 379 3 0
88 Iraq 372 -1 -23
89 Antigua and Barbuda 371 3 0
90 Honduras 370 8 21
91 Botswana 367 4 4
92 China PR 365 -10 -48
93 Faroe Islands 357 3 0
94 Korea DPR 350 19 49
95 Guatemala 347 -2 -21
96 Libya 345 -15 -82
96 Oman 345 3 1
98 El Salvador 344 1 0
98 Rwanda 344 -7 -31
100 Kenya 339 1 0
101 Latvia 338 1 0
102 Liberia 337 1 0
103 Zimbabwe 335 5 13
104 Mozambique 334 5 18
105 Togo 329 -12 -39
106 Malawi 327 0 0
107 Niger 326 -4 -11
108 Kyrgyzstan 324 -1 0
109 Angola 321 -4 -12
110 Mauritania 320 1 18
111 Burundi 316 -1 9
112 Nicaragua 311 -16 -46
113 Palestine 307 18 40
114 Central African Republic 302 -3 0
115 Chad 301 -2 0
116 Aruba 298 -1 0
116 Turkmenistan 298 1 4
118 Azerbaijan 296 -2 0
119 Sierra Leone 290 2 5
120 St. Kitts and Nevis 289 -1 0
121 Kuwait 288 20 46
122 Belize 286 6 13
122 Georgia 286 -2 0
122 Thailand 286 -1 1
125 Armenia 285 -4 0
126 Syria 278 -1 0
126 Tanzania 278 0 1
128 Swaziland 277 5 12
129 Ethiopia 276 -11 -15
130 Lithuania 274 -3 0
131 Madagascar 272 -2 0
132 Bahrain 269 -11 -16
133 Kazakhstan 266 -1 0
134 Namibia 264 -1 -1
134 Philippines 264 1 0
136 Sudan 261 -6 -10
137 Hong Kong 259 -1 0
138 FYR Macedonia 257 0 0
139 Cuba 250 -3 -9
140 Lebanon 246 0 1
140 South Sudan 246 -1 0
142 Luxembourg 237 0 0
143 Barbados 227 2 13
144 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 221 -1 0
145 St. Lucia 216 -1 0
146 Vietnam 209 0 0
147 Guinea-Bissau 207 0 0
148 Singapore 196 0 0
148 Tajikistan 196 0 0
150 Curaçao 192 0 0
150 New Zealand 192 0 0
152 Lesotho 186 0 0
153 Afghanistan 183 0 0
154 Moldova 170 0 -2
155 Guam 169 1 0
156 Maldives 165 1 6
157 Myanmar 155 1 0
158 Bermuda 154 1 0
159 São Tomé e Príncipe 152 -4 -18
160 Dominican Republic 150 0 0
161 Malta 143 1 0
162 Grenada 139 1 0
162 Guyana 139 -1 -5
162 India 139 1 0
165 Gambia 135 0 0
165 Liechtenstein 135 0 0
167 American Samoa 128 0 0
167 Cook Islands 128 0 0
167 Samoa 128 0 0
170 Timor-Leste 127 0 0
171 Malaysia 126 0 0
172 Mauritius 120 0 0
172 Puerto Rico 120 0 0
174 Comoros 119 0 0
175 Yemen 113 0 -1
176 Dominica 107 0 0
177 Bangladesh 105 2 18
178 Laos 88 -1 0
178 US Virgin Islands 88 -1 0
180 Indonesia 86 0 2
181 Chinese Taipei 80 1 0
181 New Caledonia 80 1 0
183 Cambodia 79 -2 -4
184 Brunei Darussalam 74 0 0
185 Pakistan 72 0 0
186 Fiji 68 0 0
187 Montserrat 67 0 0
188 Sri Lanka 64 0 3
189 Suriname 57 0 0
190 Seychelles 56 0 0
190 Tahiti 56 0 0
192 Bhutan 49 0 0
193 Vanuatu 47 0 0
194 Macau 44 0 0
195 Cayman Islands 42 0 0
196 Nepal 40 0 -1
197 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 0 0
198 San Marino 28 0 0
199 British Virgin Islands 27 0 0
200 Solomon Islands 26 0 0
201 Andorra 6 0 0
201 Mongolia 6 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 4 0 0
204 Anguilla 0 0 0
204 Bahamas 0 0 0
204 Djibouti 0 0 0
204 Eritrea 0 0 0
204 Somalia 0 0 0
204 Tonga 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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37 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 8, 2016 at 6:50 PM

    Saudi Arabia in front of Japan and Australia!!!! Lol! And the draw for the Third Phase of World Cup Qualifiers is in April.
    Could be a weird seeding in April, with a group of death and a very soft group...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2016 at 6:09 PM

      Assuming they qualify in March 3 of Irsn, SK, Japan and Australia in one group with 2 direct WCQ spots and 1 (2 stage) playoff spot would definitely appear to be quite tough compared to the 2010 and 2014 groupings.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousJanuary 17, 2016 at 4:55 PM

      UAE's 2-1 friendly win over (understrength) Iceland on 16th January will put them ahead of Australia in the February FIFA rankings

      Delete
    3. UnknownJanuary 18, 2016 at 10:20 PM

      So, as of today the 18th, what would the AFC top 10 be for the February FIFA rankings?

      Delete
    4. EdJanuary 19, 2016 at 8:54 AM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    5. EdJanuary 19, 2016 at 9:50 AM

      Asian top 10 in the February ranking (with the friendly Egypt-Jordan still to play on January 27th; incorporated in this ranking as a loss for Jordan):

      1 Iran 626
      2 Korea Republic 580
      3 Saudi Arabia 571
      4 Japan 569
      5 United Arab Emirates 520
      6 Australia 510
      7 Uzbekistan 502
      8 Qatar 444
      9 Jordan 392
      10 Iraq 372

      Delete
    6. UnknownJanuary 20, 2016 at 3:51 AM

      Thank you!

      So with that knowledge in addition to the likelihood that the 4 best runners up from Asia in third round of qualifying will be Korea DPR, Iraq, Syria, & UAE - the seeding in April could be something like this:

      Pot 1 - Iran & Korea Rep.
      Pot 2 - Saudi Arabia & Japan
      Pot 3 - UAE & Australia
      Pot 4 - Uzbekistan & Qatar
      Por 5 - Iraq 7 North Korea
      Pot 6 - Thailand & Syria

      Delete
    7. EdJanuary 20, 2016 at 10:31 AM

      See: http://www.football-rankings.info/2015/12/2018-fifa-world-cup-afc-sims-18.html and the comments in that thread

      Delete
  2. AnonymousJanuary 8, 2016 at 6:52 PM

    And now i see another funny thing: Cape Verde first in the CAF! First!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Soccer-DB.infoJanuary 11, 2016 at 5:28 AM

      Cape Verde doesn't play in that CHAN nonsense final.

      Delete
  3. UnknownJanuary 9, 2016 at 6:37 AM

    I like surprise. That's football.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJanuary 9, 2016 at 11:54 AM

      More than football, it's FIFA ranking...

      Delete
  4. FootballInNepalJanuary 19, 2016 at 3:21 PM

    Nepal 4-1 Maldives, Nepal 0-0 Bangladesh On ongoing Bangbandhu Goldcup!!! It Wont be Counted??

    ReplyDelete
  5. UnknownJanuary 19, 2016 at 4:14 PM

    Enter your comment...india have won 4 friendly in 2016 after winning that matches only 7 points increased ?? why ?? and can you predict rank of india in march

    ReplyDelete
  6. EdJanuary 22, 2016 at 9:48 AM

    Abishek, India won 4 friendlies this SAFF Cup 2015 but that delivered only 127 points per match, because it was against low-ranked opposition. Their first timeframe average climbed from 87 to 99 because of that.
    At the same time the 4 friendly wins in the SAFF Cup 2011 no longer count for the ranking, so their fourth timeframe average dropped from 12 to 7. This results in a climb for India of only 7 points in the January ranking. It's all about averages in the ranking calculation.
    India will have 142 points and will be found around spot 160 in the March ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  7. EdgarJanuary 22, 2016 at 10:59 AM

    Thanks Ed!

    ReplyDelete
  8. UnknownJanuary 22, 2016 at 6:51 PM

    Enter your comment...Assuming India will win aganist Turkminstan in march as worldcup qualifers so(539 points) what will April fifa rank of India ??

    ReplyDelete
  9. EdJanuary 23, 2016 at 9:02 AM

    Elo predicts the result of the qualifier India-Turkmenistan as a draw. With that India will have 165 points around spot 154 in April.
    If India wins they will have 193 points around spot 150. In both cases assuming the qualifier against Iran is the predicted loss.

    ReplyDelete
  10. HosamJanuary 23, 2016 at 11:34 AM

    If Nigeria wins the CHAN, how many points will had in March ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJanuary 23, 2016 at 10:19 PM

      If they win the remaining 4 CHAN-matches Nigeria will have around 606 points in March. Of course the exact number of points will depend on the possible opposition in the three knock-out stages.
      At the moment elo predicts a draw against Guinea in the last group match, a win over Mali in the quarter finals, a loss to Cote d'Ivoire in the semis followed by a win against Congo DR in the play-off for third place. This results in 563 points for Nigeria in March.

      Delete
  11. HosamJanuary 25, 2016 at 1:26 PM

    ???how many points will Niger had in March ranking

    ReplyDelete
  12. EdJanuary 25, 2016 at 3:40 PM

    Niger will have 312 points in March (including the predicted CHAN-loss tomorrow against Tunisia).
    I wonder Hossam, and if I may ask, what on earth do you want with this information? If you want to explore some possible WC18Q seeding pot implications of the March CAF17-qualifiers then you need at least March ranking positions of the opponents of Egypt and Senegal, not ranking points, so I'm mystified :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownJanuary 25, 2016 at 4:45 PM

      yeah, Hossam, you should stop asking such nonsense questions. This may bother others.

      Delete
    2. EdJanuary 26, 2016 at 8:00 AM

      That is not what I said. I am just curious what Hossam wants to do with the info. He (and everybody) is allowed to ask any question. It's up to me if I want to answer a question. A question can't really 'bother' someone on the internet, does it ?

      Delete
    3. HosamJanuary 26, 2016 at 1:49 PM

      Sorry Ed for overload, i want Niger ranking points to calculate Senegal's points that will gain from possible 2 wins in March, Senegal and Tunisia compete with EGypt in the 5th seat in seeding pot, sorry again if there is interuption.

      Delete
  13. UnknownJanuary 26, 2016 at 12:15 PM

    :D maybe I had overstated about that.

    ReplyDelete
  14. HosamJanuary 26, 2016 at 1:52 PM

    Iam following your blog from 3 years regulary, and learn as a beginer how to calculate ranking points (manualy). Thank you again.

    ReplyDelete
  15. EdJanuary 26, 2016 at 4:54 PM

    Hossam, I feared as much. I will explain in detail how the calculation works in two parts.

    Part one:
    You need the following info to compute the matchpoints for a match:
    M: win/draw/loss: 3, 1 or 0 points. A win on PSO (Penalty Shoot Out) gives 2 points to the PSO-winner and 1 point to the PSO-loser;
    C: strength of confederation: CONMEBOL: 1; UEFA: 0.99; CAF/AFC/CONCACAF/OFC: 0.85. Take the average of confederation strengths of both teams;
    I: type of match: friendly match: 1.0; WC or continental qualifier: 2.5; continental final or Confederations Cup: 3.0; World Cup final: 4.0;
    T: strength of the opponent: take the position of the opponent in the current ranking (variable p) and calculate 200 minus p. Except when p = 1 then T = 200 and when p > 150 then M is always 50;

    The matchpoints P for a match are calculated as P = M * C * I * T.
    Example: CAF17-qualifier Egypt-Nigeria in March. Suppose it ends 2:0.
    M = 3 (for Egypt) or 0 (for Nigeria);
    C = (0.85 + 0.85) / 2 = 0.85;
    I = 2.5.
    The difficult part is always the T-factor because you need to know the position of Nigeria in the March ranking. At the moment you don't know that position of course, because that ranking is not yet published, but you could take as a proxy the position of Nigeria in the January ranking (66).
    T = 200 - 66 = 134 and matchpoints for Egypt are 3 * 0.85 * 2.5 * 134 = 854.25. For Nigeria it's 0 * 0.85 * 2.5 * (200 - 58) = 0 as Egypt's position in the January ranking is 58.
    Danger is of course that in the March ranking Nigeria could have quite another position. Elo predicts for instance a March-position of 59 for Nigeria which leads to 3 * 0.85 * 2.5 * (200 - 59) = 898.875 matchpoints for Egypt. As you can see that does make a difference already.
    In the case the match ends in a draw the matchpoints for Egypt are 1 * 0.85 * 2.5 * 134 = 284.75 and for Nigeria 1 * 0.85 * 2.5 * 142 = 301.75. Nigeria gets slightly more matchpoints for this draw because Egypt is higher positioned than Nigeria in the January ranking (58 vs. 66) and thus is Egypt deemed stronger than Nigeria and thus it is a better performance for Nigeria to reach a draw than it is for Egypt.

    ReplyDelete
  16. EdJanuary 26, 2016 at 4:54 PM

    Part two:
    For the calculation of the FIFA-points of a team you need to make some more calculations. You need the matchpoints of all the matches a team has played in the last 4 years (only matches that count for the ranking, which means: all matches that are presented in the FIFA fixture/results list on their site) and calculate a so-called timeframe matchpoint average for each year. A timeframe matchpoint average is the sum of matchpoints of all matches that do count for a ranking in a specific timeframe divided by the number of matches. The 4 timeframes for the FIFA points calculation are defined by the publication date of a ranking. Each timeframe has a specific length in days and each timeframe matchpoint average is weighted with a standard weight:
    1st timeframe: number of days = 365; weight = 1
    2nd timeframe: number of days = 365; weight = 0.5
    3rd timeframe: number of days = 365; weight = 0.3
    4th timeframe: number of days = 366; weight = 0.2

    The publication date of the March 2016 ranking is Thursday March 3 2016 (or in dd-mm-yyyy format 03-03-2016).
    1st timeframe spans from 04-03-2015 to 28-02-2016 (the Sunday before the publication date is the cut-off)
    2nd timeframe spans from 04-03-2014 to 03-03-2015
    3rd timeframe spans from 04-03-2013 to 03-03-2014
    4th timeframe spans from 03-03-2012 to 03-03-2013

    Simple example: suppose Egypt has played the following matches in the last 4 years with the matchpoints per match presented in the last column:
    1 17-11-2015 WCQ CHA 408,000
    1 14-11-2015 WCQ CHA 0,000
    1 11-10-2015 Fr ZAM 328,950
    1 06-8-2015 Fr CIV 320,450
    1 06-5-2015 Fr ALG 467,560
    1 26-3-2015 Fr EQG 382,500
    2 19-11-2014 CAFQ TUN 0,000
    2 15-11-2014 CAFQ SEN 0,000
    3 15-10-2013 WCQ GHA 0,000
    3 10-9-2013 WCQ GUI 851,400
    3 14-8-2013 Fr UGA 317,340
    4 28-12-2012 Fr QAT 263,160
    4 1-6-2012 WCQ MOZ 580,500

    The FIFA points calculation for the March 2016 ranking for Egypt follows these 3 steps:
    1: determine which match falls in which timeframe (presented in column 1 above: 1 = 1st timeframe; 2 = 2nd timeframe etc.)
    2: calculate the timeframe matchpoint average for each timeframe. One extra constraint here: the divisor must be at least 5:
    first timeframe: (408 + 0 + 328.95 + 320.45 + 467.56 + 382.5) / 6 = 1907.46 / 6 = 317.91
    second timeframe: (0 + 0) / 2 = 0 / 5 = 0
    third timeframe: (0 + 851.4 + 317.34) / 3 = 1168.77 / 5 = 233.754
    fourth timeframe: (263.16 + 580.5) / 2 = 843.66 / 5 = 168.732
    3: sum the timeframe averages with their weight: 1 * 317.91 + 0.5 * 0 + 0.3 * 233.754 + 0.2 * 168.732 = 421.78
    So Egypt will have 422 (rounded to integers) points in the March 2016 ranking, based on this example set of matches.

    That completes the explanation. As you can see you need a lot of info to compute a team's FIFA points for a certain ranking and you certainly don't need the FIFA points from the previous ranking in this whole calculation. See also for the official FIFA-explanation of their calculation method: http://resources.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/r%26a-wr/52/00/97/fs-590_10e_wrpoints_english.pdf

    I hope you have some more insight now (a spreadsheet program like Excel could be handy here) and if you have any further questions, don't hesitate to ask them !

    Btw this is not my blog, it is Edgar's blog. I just comment now and then (or a lot as some might say).

    ReplyDelete
  17. HosamJanuary 26, 2016 at 9:44 PM

    Thank you very much for the detailed explanation,, from following this blog i know how to calculate the ranking after long time of thinking. This wes a very difficult but finally i get it. Thank you again.

    ReplyDelete
  18. HosamJanuary 28, 2016 at 5:36 PM

    Ed, our stubid Egyptian federation arranges for two friendlies games against Libya and Jordan.we instructed them that gamef will affect our ranking but they incisted to play them and even contact the FIFA to confirm that they will be calculated. In addition we lose the 1st game against Jordan. Is there is any possibility to correct this fatal mistake and cancelling cAlculation of the two games???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJanuary 29, 2016 at 8:08 AM

      Indeed Hossam, it wasn't a clever move of your FA. Those two friendlies could harm Egypt's chances for first pot considerably. If they are both won, then Egypt already loses 7 points in the predicted June ranking in comparison to the situation without the friendlies.
      But now with the unexpected loss to Jordan Egypt has already lost 30 points, and with an also unexpected loss to Libya today that would cost Egypt a total of 60 points in June. Massive and unnecessary !
      Of course a lot will depend on the two qualifiers against Nigeria. Elo predicts at the moment an away-loss and a home-win for Egypt. If the away-match could be won Egypt would gain another 88 points from that win alone.
      So there is plenty to play for. But it all starts with winning matches, be it friendlies (like today against Libya) or qualifiers.

      I will give an updated overview of the CAF-seeding fight in two weeks (when the CHAN tournament and the Mexico-Senegal friendly are played), including different scenario's regarding the CAF-qualifiers.

      And no, when a match is deemed valid and is included in the calculation, it remains included. Your only hope lies then in some match-circumstances that makes the match invalid for inclusion into the calculation like:
      - a team uses more than 6 subs
      - the referee and/or assistants are not approved by FIFA
      - the match didn't observe the Laws of the Game.

      Delete
  19. HosamJanuary 29, 2016 at 11:48 AM


    - the match didn't observe the Laws of the Game.

    What are the laws of the game??

    ReplyDelete
  20. HosamJanuary 29, 2016 at 11:52 AM

    With win against libya, away draw against Nigeria, home win against Nigeria, how many points will Egypt had in June ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  21. gallagosFebruary 5, 2016 at 11:34 PM

    hey ed, now that the February rankings have been published, what do you predict south korea's place will be in April? I hope they land the second spot in Asia ranking...it seems like korea will be in third place in march...just below japan

    ReplyDelete

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