As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 February 2016.
This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)
Pot 1: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Senegal
Pot 2: Tunisia, Egypt, Nigeria, Congo, Cameroon
Pot 3: Guinea, Congo DR, South Africa, Uganda, Mali
Pot 4: Morocco, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya
See the previous sims.
No changes in the pots - only in the order within the pots.
Côte d'Ivoire join Algeria - now both 100% in Pot 1 in 10000 simulations.
Cape Verde Islands improved from 80% to 84%, while Egypt's chances dropped.
Pot 4
100% - Gabon
100% - Libya
91.85% - Zambia
88.79% - Burkina Faso
80.33% - Morocco
13.29% - Uganda
12.15% - South Africa
11.26% - Mali
0.72% - Egypt
0.6% - Congo
0.43% - Cameroon
0.23% - Nigeria
0.19% - Congo DR
0.16% - Guinea
Pot 3
81.02% - Mali
71.77% - Uganda
64.91% - South Africa
59.14% - Congo DR
46.46% - Guinea
35.83% - Egypt
35.33% - Cameroon
34.48% - Congo
30.45% - Nigeria
18.88% - Morocco
10.93% - Burkina Faso
8.15% - Zambia
2.57% - Tunisia
0.08% - Senegal
Pot 2
85.39% - Tunisia
61.28% - Cameroon
59.67% - Nigeria
53.38% - Guinea
50.94% - Congo
46.54% - Egypt
40.67% - Congo DR
39% - Senegal
22.88% - South Africa
15.5% - Cape Verde Islands
14.94% - Uganda
7.72% - Mali
1.02% - Ghana
0.79% - Morocco
0.28% - Burkina Faso
Pot 1
100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
98.98% - Ghana
84.5% - Cape Verde Islands
60.92% - Senegal
16.91% - Egypt
13.98% - Congo
12.04% - Tunisia
9.65% - Nigeria
2.96% - Cameroon
0.06% - South Africa
Min/max points over the 10000 simulations:
| Algeria | 701 | 829 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 701 | 760 |
| Ghana | 651 | 767 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 620 | 873 |
| Senegal | 586 | 676 |
| Tunisia | 573 | 657 |
| Nigeria | 535 | 669 |
| Congo DR | 532 | 596 |
| Cameroon | 531 | 635 |
| Congo | 531 | 686 |
| Guinea | 528 | 596 |
| Egypt | 516 | 692 |
| South Africa | 487 | 613 |
| Uganda | 483 | 581 |
| Mali | 481 | 569 |
| Zambia | 414 | 514 |
| Morocco | 403 | 557 |
| Burkina Faso | 386 | 556 |
| Gabon | 381 | 408 |
| Libya | 297 | 297 |
Is there is possibility for Egypt to be in the 1st pot if they made draw and win against Nigeria??
ReplyDelete16.52%
DeleteWith two wins -> 100%
These are Egypt matches during last 4 years:
ReplyDelete2-6-2012 ----- 2-6-2013:
GUI(W) 857.85
CTA (L):0
CTA(D):230.05
OMA(D):92.8
CGO(W):273.48
TUN(L):0
GEO(D):125.55
GHA(L):0
CIV(L):0
CHL(L):0
QAT(L):0
ZIM(W):645
3-6-2013---- 2-6-2014:
ZIM(W):632.1
MOZ(W):625.65
AUG(W):317.3
GUI(W):851.4
GHA(L):0
GHA(W):1141.6
BIH(W):510.5
CHI(L):0
3-6-2014----- 2-6-2015:
JAM(D):103.5
SEN(L):0
TUN(L):0
BOT(W):694.8
BOT(W):694.8
SEN(L):0
TUN(L):0
EQG(W):382.5
3-6-2015 --- 29-5-2016:
MWI(W):267.75
TNZ(W):465.3
CHD(W):318.7
ZAM(W):328.9
CHD(L):0
CHD(W):408
JOR(L):0
LIB(W):303.45
NGR(W):879.75
NGR(W):879.75
These mathces equal 693 points (provided 2 wins vs Nigeria)
how it will be 709 ???
There was a mistake in my code triggered by the lack of matches in May and June for African teams. Fixed now. Thanks Hassan!
DeleteHow many points will Senegal had in June ranking if win and draw with Niger ?
DeleteSenegal would have 646 Points.
ReplyDeleteCopying what Ed posted yesterday, to help you Hassan.
res ALG - CPV - GHA - CIV - SEN | TUN - NGA - CMR - GUI - COD
w-w 829* - 873 - 767* - 760* - 676* | 657 - 669 - 635 - 596* - 596
w-d 786 - 789* - 728 - 740 - 646 | 629* - 624* - 600* - 573 - 575*
w-l 765 - 747 - 709 - 730 - 631 | 615 - 602 - 583 - 562 - 564
d-d 744 - 705 - 690 - 720 - 616 | 601 - 580 - 566 - 551 - 553
d-l 722 - 663 - 670 - 711 - 601 | 587 - 558 - 549 - 539 - 543
l-l 701 - 620 - 651 - 701 - 586 | 573 - 535 - 531 - 528 - 532
res MLI - CGO - UGA - EGY - RSA | ZAM - MAR - BFA - GAB - LBY
w-w 569* - 686 - 581 - 692 - 613 | 514 - 557 - 556 - 408 - 319*
w-d 539 - 634 - 549* - 634 - 571 | 480* - 506 - 499 - 399* - 301
w-l 525 - 608 - 532 - 604 - 550 | 464 - 480 - 471 - 395 - 293
d-d 510 - 583 - 516 - 575 - 529 | 447 - 454 - 443 - 390 - 284
d-l 495 - 557* - 500 - 546* - 508* | 430 - 429* - 414* - 386 - 275
l-l 481 - 531 - 483 - 516 - 487 | 414 - 403 - 386 - 381 - 266
I think even if Egypt managed to win and tie Nigeria, their shot is tho hope Tunisia to lose points against Togo, and Morocco beat Cape Verde twice. Difficult, but can happen.
ReplyDeleteCongo with win and draw will had 634 , equal to Egypt, who will be seeded??
ReplyDeleteFor all you interested in the latest elo-predicted June ranking for African teams, click here
ReplyDeleteHossam, if you really want to know: CGO 634,4, EGY 633,8.
Egypt has scheduled another friendly for the ranking: February 27th against Burkina Faso in Borg Al Arab.
ReplyDeleteWhat are they doing? They lose an extra 3 to 8 points in June with a win in this one (if they at least win and draw against Nigeria).
With worse results against Nigeria they could gain an extra 2 to 8 points with this friendly win, but then pot 1 is already out of sight anyway.
Isn't anyone in the Egyptian FA interested in optimizing their chances on pot 1 without any effort (i.e. not playing an unnecessary friendly) ??
In January 2 matches vs BFA was cancelled, so they decide to play this match again in Feb. I think so.
DeleteFurthermore, I don't think Egypt can take a slot on pot 1
That may well be the case, but it seems like they are doing everything they can to avoid pot 1 :)
DeleteAnd especially with this qualifying format (only number 1 of each group qualifies for Russia) when you are not in pot 1, this task becomes even harder to accomplish.
In the sims Edgar made above, pot 1 and pot 2 may be the same level about strength, except CIV. So pot 1 or pot 2 is not a problem
Deletewe told them that stupid friendlies will lose the pot 1 ,,, no response.
ReplyDeleteI am half Egyptian, and I don't think we will make it into pot 1. And that is fine. We will have to qualify the hard way, and I think we can do it. Don't worry Hossam.
ReplyDeleteI am half Egyptian, and I don't think we will make it into pot 1. And that is fine. We will have to qualify the hard way, and I think we can do it. Don't worry Hossam.
ReplyDelete