FIFA Ranking: April 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 April. I will most likely post updates, God willing, on 25 March and 1 April. I promise there will be no jokes related to the ranking :)

170 matches - only 55 of them are friendlies, so there are a lot of points to be gained.

Belgium's time at the top spot seems close to the end.



Argentina and Chile are really pushing the Belgians. The Albiceleste are the most likely to take their place, but Chile are hosting them on 24 March and with a win they could very well take the lead.

Top team over 10000 simulations (using ClubElo's expected goals formula):

71.65% - Argentina
26.88% - Chile
1.47% - Belgium

Two teams will drop to new lows:

Indonesia (at most 182 - 180 in February 2016)
New Caledonia (at most 190 - 188 in May 2006)

The min/max points are computed simply counting a team's fixtures as losses or wins.

The worst/best/average rank are the result of 10000 simulations. The table is sorted ascending on average rank.

Country - Min Points - Max Points - Worst Rank - Best Rank - Avg Rank

Argentina	1370	1532	5	1	1.32
Belgium	1352	1423	6	1	2.72
Chile	1281	1454	7	1	2.89
Germany	1240	1380	7	2	4.28
Brazil	1189	1375	10	2	5.19
Spain	1236	1358	7	2	5.46
Colombia	1140	1337	10	3	6.37
Portugal	1125	1223	11	6	8.16
Uruguay	1029	1232	14	6	9.67
Ecuador	986	1204	15	6	10.43
Austria	1006	1134	14	8	10.52
England	1011	1124	14	9	11.48
Switzerland	974	1078	16	9	12.60
Italy	939	1056	18	10	14.31
Hungary	905	965	22	14	16.63
Mexico	873	934	23	15	17.04
Turkey	878	983	25	13	17.12
Romania	871	971	25	14	17.90
Netherlands	868	989	26	12	17.94
Wales	818	946	32	14	21.68
Bosnia and Herzegovina	832	913	29	15	22.46
Ukraine	789	880	33	17	22.93
France	799	907	34	15	23.06
Croatia	784	900	35	16	23.82
Czech Republic	792	898	34	16	24.96
Russia	800	873	35	19	26.32
USA	776	843	35	21	26.92
Costa Rica	748	866	37	20	27.24
Slovakia	754	844	38	21	29.69
Northern Ireland	757	865	37	20	29.72
Poland	721	821	40	23	30.73
Algeria	686	813	43	24	30.99
Republic of Ireland	711	831	40	23	31.63
Côte d'Ivoire	699	758	41	30	34.65
Sweden	696	801	43	26	35.16
Cape Verde Islands	620	873	51	19	35.24
Iceland	684	764	44	30	37.97
Greece	660	743	45	32	38.27
Ghana	628	726	49	34	38.82
Denmark	638	733	49	33	40.00
Paraguay	622	826	53	23	41.72
Peru	604	761	56	30	41.89
Iran	575	672	60	37	42.88
Albania	610	702	54	35	45.02
Senegal	561	651	63	39	46.28
Tunisia	564	648	65	39	49.36
Trinidad and Tobago	556	614	65	43	50.36
Egypt	540	700	70	36	50.82
Scotland	545	687	70	37	52.08
Jamaica	563	696	66	36	52.22
Panama	532	635	70	41	52.65
Norway	549	628	69	42	53.94
Korea Republic	536	596	69	47	54.42
Finland	558	663	67	39	55.28
Nigeria	521	655	73	39	56.01
Serbia	544	637	70	41	56.08
Congo	510	666	74	38	57.21
Slovenia	538	615	71	43	57.71
Australia	467	601	79	47	57.91
Cameroon	522	626	73	41	58.37
Guinea	525	593	71	49	58.63
Japan	515	577	71	49	58.93
Congo DR	532	596	70	47	59.34
Saudi Arabia	483	631	76	41	62.69
United Arab Emirates	441	571	81	53	64.65
Uzbekistan	464	549	79	56	66.15
Haiti	474	642	79	41	66.28
Uganda	475	572	79	53	66.47
South Africa	474	573	79	52	67.91
Mali	463	551	82	58	68.60
Venezuela	443	664	84	39	70.82
Equatorial Guinea	416	648	89	40	72.01
Bolivia	440	683	84	38	72.90
Israel	467	557	82	57	73.41
Zambia	433	514	85	64	74.41
Belarus	440	514	85	65	74.87
Morocco	401	555	94	57	75.50
Benin	380	489	98	69	79.74
Cyprus	426	511	88	65	80.49
Bulgaria	413	508	90	66	81.13
Jordan	395	479	92	69	81.27
Qatar	384	471	97	71	81.91
Burkina Faso	375	516	98	65	82.63
Antigua and Barbuda	320	496	115	67	82.98
Rwanda	381	421	97	78	86.03
Gabon	381	408	97	81	88.82
China PR	325	423	109	78	89.44
Botswana	357	402	101	81	89.49
Honduras	356	427	104	77	89.81
Montenegro	350	448	105	72	89.87
Estonia	352	440	104	75	90.62
Canada	357	532	105	64	91.75
El Salvador	337	438	109	75	92.43
Faroe Islands	358	383	104	86	94.53
Togo	298	515	124	66	96.86
Oman	320	429	113	77	97.36
Guatemala	319	455	117	73	100.51
Iraq	281	387	129	86	101.73
Mozambique	312	468	118	71	102.37
Kenya	303	359	121	91	102.86
Malawi	302	447	122	74	103.52
Korea DPR	314	346	118	95	103.54
Libya	287	341	129	95	104.54
Angola	291	404	129	83	105.10
Armenia	294	361	127	91	107.99
Mauritania	299	352	124	94	108.38
Nicaragua	308	349	119	95	109.71
Thailand	295	365	128	91	109.95
Central African Republic	256	405	143	83	110.21
Liberia	258	322	136	100	110.30
Kyrgyzstan	301	340	123	96	111.37
Niger	296	425	127	80	111.60
Syria	267	393	136	86	112.33
Belize	307	307	121	106	113.52
Latvia	298	372	125	90	114.07
St. Kitts and Nevis	211	368	152	89	115.37
Georgia	280	308	132	105	117.40
Aruba	259	460	141	73	120.57
Tanzania	257	324	143	100	121.85
Kuwait	244	381	144	88	122.18
Sierra Leone	261	336	141	98	122.62
Burundi	254	325	143	100	122.86
Ethiopia	268	391	141	86	124.23
Palestine	237	369	145	89	124.30
Madagascar	243	325	145	98	124.75
Swaziland	257	325	144	99	125.12
Azerbaijan	269	297	139	113	125.30
Kazakhstan	258	320	142	103	126.04
Bahrain	239	351	146	94	127.35
Zimbabwe	235	304	147	107	128.21
Cuba	256	285	143	118	128.56
Chad	231	326	149	99	128.70
South Sudan	182	406	161	82	131.68
Lithuania	254	373	144	92	131.75
Sudan	233	494	148	69	132.03
FYR Macedonia	235	326	147	99	132.03
Namibia	241	292	146	117	132.89
Turkmenistan	241	277	145	122	134.54
Philippines	225	389	151	87	135.31
Vietnam	183	328	161	99	138.00
Hong Kong	234	303	148	107	139.53
Luxembourg	221	323	152	101	139.88
St. Lucia	238	238	148	133	141.07
Guyana	142	270	168	124	141.85
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	220	381	153	90	142.13
Guinea-Bissau	181	336	160	98	142.46
Barbados	178	284	161	118	143.95
Singapore	203	232	156	140	148.38
Lesotho	180	223	160	141	149.89
Puerto Rico	127	255	174	131	150.58
Tajikistan	149	330	168	99	150.81
Afghanistan	189	268	160	129	150.94
Dominican Republic	120	257	176	129	151.93
Lebanon	169	251	163	134	153.24
Gambia	122	256	175	130	153.66
Curaçao	138	252	170	132	156.18
Moldova	159	192	167	148	156.19
India	151	270	168	125	157.81
Maldives	144	209	168	147	159.17
Guam	151	239	168	137	160.28
Grenada	134	173	171	153	160.29
New Zealand	163	163	166	155	160.52
Bermuda	135	218	172	144	162.22
Mauritius	122	255	175	132	162.74
Malta	143	161	170	156	163.48
Myanmar	144	176	170	152	163.89
Liechtenstein	120	165	176	154	166.43
Dominica	84	137	180	162	168.59
American Samoa	128	128	173	164	168.71
Cook Islands	128	128	173	164	168.71
Samoa	128	128	173	164	168.71
São Tomé e Príncipe	98	295	178	116	169.60
Malaysia	115	200	176	149	170.03
Comoros	98	235	178	138	171.02
Timor-Leste	110	176	177	154	173.57
Yemen	98	146	179	160	173.62
Bangladesh	87	148	181	165	177.15
Nepal	80	80	182	178	178.69
Cambodia	68	103	185	173	180.56
Fiji	68	68	186	179	180.78
Laos	66	102	187	173	182.54
Seychelles	54	112	193	172	183.02
Indonesia	65	65	188	182	183.69
Chinese Taipei	54	113	192	172	183.90
Bhutan	64	90	189	176	183.95
Sri Lanka	58	58	191	184	186.40
Montserrat	57	57	192	185	187.40
Suriname	57	57	192	185	187.40
Solomon Islands	21	72	201	179	188.35
US Virgin Islands	44	108	197	173	188.41
Pakistan	54	54	194	187	189.69
New Caledonia	53	53	195	190	191.31
Vanuatu	47	47	196	191	192.31
Brunei Darussalam	37	37	198	194	194.40
Tahiti	35	35	199	195	195.40
Macau	33	59	199	184	196.05
Turks and Caicos Islands	33	33	200	196	196.55
British Virgin Islands	14	78	204	179	198.70
Cayman Islands	20	20	203	198	199.09
Papua New Guinea	4	55	204	187	199.92
Anguilla	0	128	205	165	200.34
San Marino	20	20	204	199	200.38
Djibouti	0	158	205	160	201.25
Andorra	5	24	204	198	201.81
Mongolia	4	4	205	202	203.28
Bahamas	0	0	206	204	204.61
Eritrea	0	0	206	204	204.61
Somalia	0	0	206	204	204.61
Tonga	0	0	206	204	204.61

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.