2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding sims by team

10000 simulations for each team and set of results.

Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal - are safe in Pot 1 no matter what happens.
Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya - locked in Pot 4.

A couple of very important matches:


04 June Tanzania vs. Egypt

The Pharaos need to win to be in Pot 1. Any other result will hand the last pot 1 spot to Tunisia (easy match vs. Djibouti)

03 June Swaziland vs. Guinea

With a win, the guest will be safe in Pot 2. A draw drops their chances to 15% while a loss will see them drop to Pot 3.

30 May Morocco - Congo

Both teams involved in this friendly are Pot 2 contenders. Congo will be safe in Pot 2 with 3 points here and another win vs. Kenya, while Morocco will be 86% in Pot 2 with a win in this match and another vs. Libya.

30 May France - Cameroon

With a win in Nantes and another vs. Kenya, Cameroon will be safe in Pot 2. A loss against Les Bleus will see their Pot 2 chances drop to 5.7%.

04 June Botswana - Uganda

A very simply equation for the Uganda Cranes. Win = Pot 3. Any other result = Pot 4.



Tunisia

Defeat vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 45.9%; Pot 2: 54.1%;
Draw vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 56.5%; Pot 2: 43.5%;
Win vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 57.3%; Pot 2: 42.7%;


Egypt

Defeat vs. Tanzania - Pot 2: 100%;
Draw vs. Tanzania - Pot 2: 100%;
Win vs. Tanzania - Pot 1: 100%;

Congo DR

Pretty much locked in Pot 2. Even if they lose both their matches (Romania and Madagascar), they're 96.5% in Pot 2.

Cape Verde Islands

Defeat vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 10.5%; Pot 3: 89.5%;
Draw vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 86.3%; Pot 3: 13.7%;
Win vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 100%;

Mali

Defeat vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 19.9%; Pot 3: 80.1%;
Draw vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 73.5%; Pot 3: 26.5%;
Win vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 97.9%; Pot 3: 2.1%;

Guinea

Defeat vs. Swaziland - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Swaziland - Pot 2: 15.7%; Pot 3: 84.3%;
Win vs. Swaziland - Pot 2: 100%;

Nigeria


No matches for the Super Eagles.

Pot 2: 42.44%; Pot 3: 57.56%;

Congo

Defeat vs. Morocco; Defeat vs. Kenya - Pot 3: 84.7%; Pot 4: 15.3%;
Defeat vs. Morocco; Draw vs. Kenya - Pot 3: 100%;
Defeat vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 66.9%; Pot 3: 33.1%;
Draw vs. Morocco; Defeat or Draw vs. Kenya - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 84.9%; Pot 3: 15.1%;
Win vs. Morocco; Defeat vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 2.2%; Pot 3: 97.8%;
Win vs. Morocco; Draw vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 81.7%; Pot 3: 18.3%;
Win vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 100%;

Morocco

Defeat vs. Congo; Defeat vs. Libya - Pot 3: 79.6%; Pot 4: 20.4%;
Defeat vs. Congo; Draw vs. Libya - Pot 3: 80.4%; Pot 4: 19.6%;
Defeat vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Congo; Defeat vs. Libya - Pot 3: 87.7%; Pot 4: 12.3%;
Draw vs. Congo; Draw vs. Libya - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 2: 0.9%; Pot 3: 99.1%;
Win vs. Congo; Defeat or Draw vs. Libya - Pot 3: 100%;
Win vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 2: 86%; Pot 3: 14%;

Cameroon

Defeat vs. France; Defeat vs. Mauritania - Pot 3: 88.4%; Pot 4: 11.6%;
Defeat vs. France; Draw vs. Mauritania - Pot 3: 100%;
Defeat vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 5.7%; Pot 3: 94.3%;
Draw vs. France; Defeat or Draw vs. Mauritania - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 69.4%; Pot 3: 30.6%;
Win vs. France; Defeat vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 5%; Pot 3: 95%;
Win vs. France; Draw vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 74.1%; Pot 3: 25.9%;
Win vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 100%;

South Africa

Defeat vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 60.1%; Pot 4: 39.9%;
Draw vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 69.3%; Pot 4: 30.7%;
Win vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 84.5%; Pot 4: 15.5%;

Uganda

Defeat vs. Botswana - Pot 4: 100%;
Draw vs. Botswana - Pot 4: 100%;
Win vs. Botswana - Pot 3: 100%;

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