Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points + simulations see the preview.
Probable June 2016 rank - Team - Probable June 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Argentina | 1503 | 0 | -29 |
| 2 | Germany | 1366 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Belgium | 1343 | -1 | -21 |
| 4 | Colombia | 1328 | 0 | -9 |
| 5 | Chile | 1320 | -2 | -33 |
| 6 | Spain | 1267 | 0 | -10 |
| 7 | Brazil | 1257 | 0 | -4 |
| 8 | Portugal | 1181 | 0 | -3 |
| 9 | Uruguay | 1150 | 0 | -8 |
| 10 | Austria | 1077 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | England | 1069 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Ecuador | 990 | 0 | -29 |
| 13 | Italy | 982 | 2 | 23 |
| 14 | Switzerland | 966 | 0 | -8 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 959 | 2 | 28 |
| 16 | Mexico | 942 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | France | 925 | 4 | 18 |
| 18 | Romania | 923 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Turkey | 892 | -6 | -91 |
| 20 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 886 | 0 | -27 |
| 20 | Hungary | 886 | -2 | -39 |
| 22 | Ukraine | 862 | 0 | -18 |
| 23 | Costa Rica | 853 | 2 | 24 |
| 24 | Northern Ireland | 851 | 2 | 26 |
| 25 | Wales | 846 | -1 | 7 |
| 26 | Croatia | 842 | -3 | -14 |
| 26 | Poland | 842 | 1 | 21 |
| 28 | Russia | 828 | -1 | 7 |
| 29 | Czech Republic | 815 | 0 | 5 |
| 30 | Slovakia | 799 | 2 | 15 |
| 31 | USA | 787 | -2 | -23 |
| 32 | Algeria | 786 | 1 | 15 |
| 33 | Republic of Ireland | 768 | -2 | -24 |
| 34 | Iceland | 751 | 1 | 27 |
| 35 | Sweden | 735 | 1 | 22 |
| 36 | Côte d'Ivoire | 732 | -2 | -6 |
| 37 | Ghana | 728 | 1 | 35 |
| 38 | Denmark | 697 | 3 | 11 |
| 39 | Greece | 696 | -2 | 1 |
| 40 | Iran | 688 | 2 | 16 |
| 41 | Senegal | 677 | 2 | 26 |
| 42 | Scotland | 659 | -2 | -28 |
| 43 | Albania | 643 | 2 | 11 |
| 44 | Paraguay | 638 | -5 | -50 |
| 45 | Egypt | 631 | -1 | -17 |
| 46 | Tunisia | 629 | 1 | 9 |
| 47 | Peru | 623 | -1 | -8 |
| 48 | Cape Verde Islands | 620 | -1 | 0 |
| 49 | Korea Republic | 603 | 5 | 12 |
| 50 | Jamaica | 598 | 5 | 13 |
| 51 | Norway | 593 | -2 | -12 |
| 52 | Panama | 583 | 0 | -10 |
| 53 | Congo DR | 581 | -2 | -15 |
| 53 | Japan | 581 | 4 | 4 |
| 55 | Serbia | 576 | 1 | -5 |
| 56 | Guinea | 573 | 2 | 3 |
| 57 | Slovenia | 567 | 4 | 9 |
| 58 | Cameroon | 566 | 5 | 10 |
| 59 | Australia | 563 | -9 | -38 |
| 60 | Congo | 560 | -1 | -2 |
| 60 | Mali | 560 | 5 | 9 |
| 62 | Morocco | 555 | 2 | 0 |
| 63 | Trinidad and Tobago | 550 | -10 | -42 |
| 64 | Saudi Arabia | 545 | -4 | -14 |
| 65 | Uzbekistan | 544 | 1 | -5 |
| 66 | Nigeria | 543 | 1 | 3 |
| 67 | Finland | 536 | -6 | -22 |
| 68 | South Africa | 529 | 2 | 22 |
| 69 | Bulgaria | 518 | 0 | 10 |
| 70 | United Arab Emirates | 517 | -2 | -4 |
| 71 | Israel | 513 | 5 | 46 |
| 72 | Uganda | 500 | 0 | 9 |
| 73 | Burkina Faso | 479 | 2 | 10 |
| 74 | Haiti | 478 | -3 | -24 |
| 75 | Benin | 473 | -2 | -16 |
| 76 | Equatorial Guinea | 466 | 7 | 50 |
| 77 | Zambia | 447 | 1 | -10 |
| 78 | Venezuela | 446 | -4 | -30 |
| 79 | Belarus | 442 | -2 | -23 |
| 80 | Jordan | 434 | 2 | 16 |
| 81 | China PR | 423 | 0 | 0 |
| 82 | Bolivia | 420 | -3 | -20 |
| 83 | Qatar | 418 | 0 | 2 |
| 84 | Antigua and Barbuda | 413 | 1 | 0 |
| 85 | Cyprus | 407 | -5 | -19 |
| 86 | Botswana | 401 | 5 | 22 |
| 87 | Gabon | 395 | 1 | 0 |
| 88 | Honduras | 393 | -2 | -13 |
| 89 | Faroe Islands | 383 | 1 | 0 |
| 89 | Guatemala | 383 | 0 | -6 |
| 91 | Montenegro | 382 | 3 | 17 |
| 92 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 374 | 0 | 6 |
| 93 | Estonia | 365 | 0 | -1 |
| 94 | Canada | 363 | 1 | 6 |
| 95 | Central African Republic | 351 | 1 | -4 |
| 96 | Mozambique | 349 | 5 | 11 |
| 97 | Korea DPR | 348 | 15 | 34 |
| 98 | El Salvador | 342 | -1 | -5 |
| 99 | Oman | 338 | -1 | -8 |
| 99 | Togo | 338 | 4 | 4 |
| 101 | Syria | 336 | 9 | 20 |
| 102 | Iraq | 334 | 2 | 1 |
| 103 | Rwanda | 332 | -16 | -69 |
| 104 | Latvia | 330 | 3 | 7 |
| 105 | Nicaragua | 329 | 0 | 0 |
| 106 | Chad | 326 | -8 | -20 |
| 107 | Malawi | 320 | -1 | -6 |
| 108 | Madagascar | 317 | 29 | 60 |
| 108 | Sierra Leone | 317 | 10 | 19 |
| 110 | Kyrgyzstan | 313 | -10 | -29 |
| 111 | Kazakhstan | 312 | 6 | 12 |
| 112 | Palestine | 311 | 18 | 40 |
| 113 | Belize | 307 | 1 | 0 |
| 114 | Guinea-Bissau | 303 | -12 | -33 |
| 114 | Zimbabwe | 303 | 12 | 23 |
| 116 | Niger | 302 | 4 | 6 |
| 116 | Swaziland | 302 | 17 | 33 |
| 116 | Thailand | 302 | 3 | 5 |
| 119 | Philippines | 299 | -4 | -5 |
| 120 | Libya | 293 | -8 | -21 |
| 121 | Angola | 292 | 0 | 1 |
| 121 | Liberia | 292 | -13 | -30 |
| 123 | Ethiopia | 288 | 0 | -1 |
| 123 | Mauritania | 288 | -14 | -33 |
| 125 | Armenia | 285 | -15 | -31 |
| 125 | Cuba | 285 | 0 | 0 |
| 125 | Kenya | 285 | -9 | -18 |
| 128 | Sudan | 278 | 0 | 2 |
| 129 | Bahrain | 271 | 1 | 0 |
| 129 | Guyana | 271 | 3 | 1 |
| 131 | Burundi | 269 | -9 | -21 |
| 132 | Azerbaijan | 268 | 1 | -1 |
| 133 | Vietnam | 266 | 12 | 38 |
| 134 | Turkmenistan | 264 | -7 | -13 |
| 135 | Namibia | 263 | 0 | -4 |
| 136 | Lithuania | 261 | 2 | 7 |
| 137 | Georgia | 260 | -14 | -29 |
| 138 | Tanzania | 254 | -9 | -20 |
| 139 | Barbados | 245 | 5 | 14 |
| 140 | Kuwait | 241 | 0 | -3 |
| 141 | Mauritius | 239 | 13 | 54 |
| 142 | FYR Macedonia | 237 | -1 | 2 |
| 143 | Aruba | 233 | -7 | -26 |
| 143 | Hong Kong | 233 | 0 | -1 |
| 145 | St. Lucia | 225 | -6 | -22 |
| 146 | Luxembourg | 221 | 0 | 0 |
| 147 | New Zealand | 220 | 14 | 57 |
| 148 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 211 | -7 | -24 |
| 149 | Singapore | 207 | -1 | 5 |
| 150 | Grenada | 203 | 7 | 24 |
| 151 | Lebanon | 199 | 7 | 23 |
| 152 | São Tomé e Príncipe | 197 | -2 | 0 |
| 153 | Dominican Republic | 193 | -2 | 0 |
| 154 | Lesotho | 192 | -6 | -10 |
| 155 | Curaçao | 191 | -3 | 0 |
| 156 | Afghanistan | 184 | -9 | -27 |
| 157 | South Sudan | 174 | -2 | -8 |
| 158 | Puerto Rico | 167 | -6 | -24 |
| 159 | Moldova | 165 | -3 | -16 |
| 160 | Myanmar | 161 | 7 | 14 |
| 161 | Comoros | 158 | -2 | -8 |
| 162 | Guam | 151 | 0 | 0 |
| 162 | India | 151 | 0 | 0 |
| 164 | Tajikistan | 150 | 0 | 0 |
| 165 | Gambia | 145 | 3 | 0 |
| 166 | Malta | 141 | -1 | -8 |
| 167 | Bermuda | 135 | 2 | 0 |
| 168 | American Samoa | 128 | 2 | 0 |
| 168 | Cook Islands | 128 | 2 | 0 |
| 168 | Liechtenstein | 128 | 5 | 8 |
| 168 | Samoa | 128 | 2 | 0 |
| 172 | Dominica | 124 | -7 | -25 |
| 173 | Laos | 118 | 3 | 13 |
| 174 | Malaysia | 116 | 0 | -1 |
| 174 | New Caledonia | 116 | 17 | 63 |
| 176 | Maldives | 115 | -16 | -50 |
| 177 | Timor-Leste | 111 | -2 | 1 |
| 178 | Yemen | 102 | -1 | 0 |
| 179 | Tahiti | 96 | 17 | 61 |
| 180 | Seychelles | 94 | -1 | 11 |
| 180 | Vanuatu | 94 | 1 | 22 |
| 182 | Bangladesh | 93 | -4 | 6 |
| 183 | Nepal | 77 | -3 | 0 |
| 184 | Chinese Taipei | 70 | -2 | 0 |
| 185 | Fiji | 68 | -2 | 0 |
| 185 | Solomon Islands | 68 | 7 | 22 |
| 187 | Cambodia | 67 | -4 | -1 |
| 188 | Indonesia | 65 | -3 | 0 |
| 189 | Bhutan | 64 | -3 | 0 |
| 190 | Sri Lanka | 58 | -3 | 0 |
| 191 | Suriname | 57 | -3 | 0 |
| 192 | Pakistan | 54 | -2 | 0 |
| 193 | Montserrat | 44 | -5 | -13 |
| 193 | US Virgin Islands | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Macau | 42 | -1 | 0 |
| 196 | Brunei Darussalam | 37 | -1 | 0 |
| 197 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 198 | Papua New Guinea | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| 199 | Cayman Islands | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 200 | San Marino | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | British Virgin Islands | 16 | 0 | 2 |
| 202 | Mongolia | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 203 | Andorra | 3 | -1 | -2 |
| 204 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | Bahamas | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | Djibouti | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | Eritrea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | Somalia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | Tonga | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I checked the ranking tools on FIFA.com and realised that even if Hungary win against the Ivory Coast, they'll drop one position. Can you tell me which particular Hungarian game will be excluded from the equation as of June?
ReplyDeleteFirst timeframe average of Hungary is more than 600. So any friendly (even a friendly win) in May will drop the FIFA points of Hungary in June.
ReplyDeleteFurthermore for the June ranking calculation the friendly draw against Denmark (177 matchpts) on 22/5/14 drops to 3rd timeframe and the friendly win against Czech Republic (522 matchpts) on 1/6/12 drops out of the 4th timeframe.
My personal opinion on the top 10 teams in the World right now -
ReplyDelete1) Argentina
2) Germany
3) Belgium
4) Chile
5) Uruguay
6) Spain
7) France
8) England
9) Portugal
10) Colombia
France are massively underrated. Brazil are in bad form currently.
Thanks you for always keep us posted.
ReplyDeleteDo you know if the friendly for Lebanon vs Kyrgyzstan on June 2 will be a good thing for our ranking?
A good thing, if you win or draw.
DeleteGibraltar and Kosovo are new members of the ranking at the day of 13th May, please make some changes here -.-
ReplyDeleteGibraltar will enter the ranking with 0 points, thus last.
DeleteKosovo have a friendly with Central African Republic. They will have 19 points for a draw, 57 for a win.
Actually Gibraltar won't be entering the ranking before playing a match.
DeleteKosovo's friendly vs. CAR was apparently canceled.
because Australia fell 9 places ?? and if Australia win or draw with England this May she walks a house ??
ReplyDeleteEd can you tell me how Mauritius wins 13 places even though they have not played matches for May ?
ReplyDeleteakeel, the 3 matches (1 win, 2 losses) Mauritius played last year May for the Cosafa Cup 2015 dropped to the second timeframe and are now weighted only half instead of full. This boosts Mauritius' points total from 185 in the May ranking to 239 in the June ranking.
DeleteThis process is called devaluation of points and can cause a change in FIFA-points, even if a team does not play any matches the past month.
thank you :D
DeleteEd, can you give us the complete ranking for 2 June?
ReplyDeleteThis is the June ranking:
ReplyDelete1 Argentina 1503
2 Belgium 1384
3 Colombia 1328
4 Germany 1310
5 Chile 1293
6 Spain 1267
7 Brazil 1257
8 Portugal 1181
9 Uruguay 1150
10 Austria 1077
11 England 1069
12 Italy 982
13 Ecuador 978
14 Netherlands 959
15 Switzerland 948
16 Mexico 942
17 France 925
18 Ukraine 894
19 Turkey 892
20 Hungary 886
20 Bosnia-Herzegovina 886
22 Romania 878
23 Costa Rica 853
24 Slovakia 852
25 Northern Ireland 851
26 Wales 846
27 Croatia 842
27 Poland 842
29 Russia 828
30 Czech Republic 815
31 USA 803
32 Algeria 786
33 Republic of Ireland 768
34 Iceland 751
35 Sweden 735
36 Cote d'Ivoire 732
37 Ghana 728
38 Denmark 697
39 Greece 696
40 Iran 688
41 Senegal 677
42 Albania 667
43 Scotland 659
44 Paraguay 638
45 Egypt 631
46 Jamaica 630
47 Tunisia 629
48 Peru 623
49 Cape Verde Islands 620
50 Korea Republic 603
51 Norway 593
52 Congo DR 590
53 Japan 581
54 Serbia 576
55 Guinea 573
56 Panama 572
57 Slovenia 567
58 Cameroon 566
59 Australia 563
60 Congo 560
61 Nigeria 559
62 Morocco 555
63 Mali 554
64 Trinidad and Tobago 550
65 Saudi Arabia 545
66 Uzbekistan 544
67 Finland 536
68 South Africa 529
69 Bulgaria 518
70 United Arab Emirates 517
71 Israel 513
72 Uganda 500
73 Burkina Faso 479
74 Haiti 478
75 Benin 473
76 Equatorial Guinea 466
77 Venezuela 456
78 Belarus 442
79 Zambia 436
80 Jordan 434
81 China PR 423
82 Bolivia 420
83 Antigua and Barbuda 413
84 Qatar 407
84 Cyprus 407
86 Honduras 393
87 Botswana 391
88 Gabon 388
89 Faroe Islands 383
90 Montenegro 382
91 Guatemala 378
92 St. Kitts and Nevis 374
93 Canada 363
94 Estonia 360
95 Togo 358
96 Central African Republic 351
97 Mozambique 349
98 Korea DPR 348
99 El Salvador 342
100 Oman 338
101 Syria 336
102 Iraq 334
103 Rwanda 332
104 Latvia 330
105 Nicaragua 329
106 Chad 326
107 Malawi 320
108 Sierra Leone 317
108 Madagascar 317
110 Armenia 315
111 Kyrgyzstan 313
112 Kazakhstan 312
113 Palestine 311
114 Belize 307
115 Guinea-Bissau 303
115 Zimbabwe 303
117 Thailand 302
117 Niger 302
117 Swaziland 302
120 Philippines 299
121 Mauritania 294
122 Libya 293
123 Liberia 292
123 Angola 292
125 Ethiopia 288
126 Cuba 285
127 Lithuania 282
128 Sudan 278
129 Kenya 276
130 Bahrain 271
130 Guyana 271
132 Burundi 269
133 Vietnam 266
134 Turkmenistan 264
135 Namibia 263
136 Tanzania 261
137 Georgia 260
138 Azerbaijan 252
139 FYR Macedonia 250
140 Barbados 245
141 Kuwait 241
142 Mauritius 239
143 Aruba 233
143 Hong Kong 233
145 St. Lucia 225
146 Luxembourg 221
147 New Zealand 220
148 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 211
149 Singapore 207
150 Grenada 203
151 Lebanon 199
152 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 197
153 Dominican Republic 193
154 Curacao 191
155 Lesotho 185
156 Afghanistan 184
157 South Sudan 174
158 Puerto Rico 167
159 Moldova 165
160 Guam 164
161 Myanmar 161
162 Comoros 158
163 India 151
164 Tajikistan 150
165 Gambia 145
166 Malta 141
167 Bermuda 135
168 American Samoa 128
168 Cook Islands 128
168 Samoa 128
168 Liechtenstein 128
172 Dominica 124
173 Malaysia 116
174 Laos 115
174 Maldives 115
176 Solomon Islands 110
177 Timor-Leste 106
178 Yemen 102
179 Tahiti 96
180 Seychelles 94
181 Bangladesh 93
182 Nepal 77
183 New Caledonia 74
184 Cambodia 73
185 Vanuatu 72
186 Fiji 68
187 Indonesia 65
188 Bhutan 64
189 Sri Lanka 58
190 Suriname 57
191 Chinese Taipei 56
192 Pakistan 54
193 Papua New Guinea 51
194 Montserrat 44
194 US Virgin Islands 44
196 Macau 42
197 Brunei Darussalam 37
198 Turks and Caicos Islands 33
199 Cayman Islands 21
200 San Marino 20
201 British Virgin Islands 16
202 Andorra 11
203 Mongolia 4
204 Kosovo 0
204 Gibraltar 0
204 Tonga 0
204 Eritrea 0
204 Somalia 0
204 Djibouti 0
204 Bahamas 0
204 Anguilla 0
Thanks! I have one question though. FIFA awarded Turkey a win vs Greece for their friendly in November 2015. Shouldn't Turkey have 919 points and switch positions with Ukraine?
DeleteI hadn't noticed that awarded match before (and would only have stumbled upon it when I compare my ranking to FIFA's), so it must be changed this last month. This means the matchpoints for that match will be calculated with the May 2016 ranking. Turkey: 919 pts on spot 18, Greece: 678 pts on spot 40.
DeleteI knew it was a trick question, to ask for a ranking you can perfectly calculate yourself :D
No, no, I only calculate the rankings for the top 30 and I needed the full rankings for the July calculations. So it wasn't a trick question. ;) My calculation techniques in Excel are rather rudimentary and you'd be probably disgusted if you saw them. :) I always check what I got with your's and Edgar's calculations.
DeleteBTW, the decision on Turkey-Greece was made 3 days ago:
http://www.fifa.com/governance/news/y=2016/m=5/news=greece-sanctioned-for-fielding-ineligible-player-in-friendly-2792710.html
ok, I believe you :) Thanks for the link and for the coming tournament: Go Croatia Go !!
DeleteThanks for the support! Given the guy who is currently our coach, I'm not an optimist, even on the question of passing the group stage. But I will allow myself to be surprised. :)
DeleteHey Ed can you give me average point of each timeframe for Germany? I tried calculating but it was 1310.51
Delete12330/16 => 770.63 => 154.13
5593.5/10 => 559.35 => 167.81
17296.8/15 => 1153.12 => 576.56
3708.045/9 => 412.01
total: 1310.51
what's wrong with it?
Not much Dinh. Just don't round the results of each division and multiplication and you will see that you end at 1310.495 = 1310.
Deleteoh nơ I know why there's always 0.01 or 0.02 difference from final points when I calculate myself. tks Ed
DeleteGuy's interested in your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteTo those who get so worked up about the rankings I always say they should be used to Group teams by bands. And bands of 10 seem appropriate.
If you are 8Th you are a top band team, 12Th you are second band and so on.
The ranking shouldn't be seen as 3Rd is obviously better than 4Th because they don't play enough games.
When viewed as bands I believe the rankings are pretty spot on.
FIFA ranking needs a major overhaul, not patching here and there.
DeleteHow you calculate malaysia ranking ?
ReplyDeletecycle date opponent matchpts
Delete4 8-6-2012 SIN 43,000
4 12-6-2012 SIN 129,000
4 11-9-2012 VIE 0,000
4 16-10-2012 HKG 129,000
4 3-11-2012 VIE 0,000
4 7-11-2012 THA 0,000
4 14-11-2012 HKG 43,000
4 20-11-2012 BAN 43,000
4 25-11-2012 SIN 0,000
4 28-11-2012 LAO 129,000
4 1-12-2012 IDN 129,000
4 9-12-2012 THA 43,000
4 13-12-2012 THA 0,000
4 6-2-2013 QAT 0,000
4 22-3-2013 YEM 322,500
3 10-9-2013 CHN 0,000
3 15-10-2013 BHR 169,850
3 8-11-2013 KUW 0,000
3 15-11-2013 BHR 0,000
3 19-11-2013 QAT 0,000
3 1-3-2014 PHI 62,780
3 5-3-2014 YEM 322,500
3 27-4-2014 PHI 49,020
2 8-8-2014 TJK 0,000
2 14-9-2014 IDN 0,000
2 20-9-2014 CAM 127,500
2 12-11-2014 SYR 0,000
2 16-11-2014 VIE 0,000
2 23-11-2014 MYA 53,550
2 26-11-2014 THA 0,000
2 29-11-2014 SIN 127,500
2 7-12-2014 VIE 0,000
2 11-12-2014 VIE 158,100
2 17-12-2014 THA 0,000
2 20-12-2014 THA 147,900
2 26-3-2015 OMA 0,000
1 6-6-2015 HKG 42,500
1 11-6-2015 TLS 114,750
1 16-6-2015 PLE 0,000
1 29-8-2015 BAN 42,500
1 3-9-2015 UAE 0,000
1 8-9-2015 KSA 0,000
1 8-10-2015 LAO 127,500
1 13-10-2015 TLS 318,750
1 12-11-2015 PLE 0,000
1 17-11-2015 UAE 0,000
1 24-3-2016 KSA 0,000
1 29-3-2016 MAC 42,500
1 28-5-2016 MYA 42,500
cycle pts MP MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
1 731,000 13 13 56,23 1 56,23
2 614,550 13 13 47,27 0,5 23,64
3 604,150 8 8 75,52 0,3 22,66
4 1010,500 15 15 67,37 0,2 13,47
MAS 116,00
Somethink wrong about Vietnam's ranking. As I caculated, they must have 275 points not 266 points (include match won Syria 2-0 in 31/5). Please reply me, thanks :)
ReplyDeleteOpps *something not somethink
Deletethis match is after deadline (29/5)
Delete