Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.
Probable July 2016 rank - Team - Probable July 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Argentina | 1608 | 0 | 105 |
| 2 | Colombia | 1506 | 1 | 178 |
| 3 | Germany | 1469 | 1 | 159 |
| 4 | Belgium | 1442 | -2 | 58 |
| 5 | Spain | 1427 | 1 | 160 |
| 6 | England | 1354 | 5 | 285 |
| 7 | Brazil | 1343 | 0 | 86 |
| 8 | France | 1303 | 9 | 378 |
| 9 | Portugal | 1297 | -1 | 116 |
| 10 | Uruguay | 1130 | -1 | -20 |
| 11 | Chile | 1124 | -6 | -169 |
| 12 | Mexico | 1116 | 4 | 174 |
| 13 | Italy | 1101 | -1 | 119 |
| 14 | Austria | 1077 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Ecuador | 1002 | -2 | 24 |
| 16 | Ukraine | 961 | 3 | 67 |
| 17 | Romania | 937 | 5 | 59 |
| 18 | Switzerland | 920 | -3 | -28 |
| 19 | Slovakia | 902 | 5 | 50 |
| 20 | Netherlands | 848 | -6 | -111 |
| 21 | Turkey | 842 | -3 | -77 |
| 22 | USA | 818 | 9 | 15 |
| 23 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 813 | -3 | -73 |
| 24 | Russia | 811 | 5 | -17 |
| 25 | Czech Republic | 810 | 5 | -5 |
| 26 | Croatia | 806 | 1 | -36 |
| 27 | Poland | 805 | 0 | -37 |
| 28 | Algeria | 781 | 4 | -5 |
| 29 | Hungary | 771 | -9 | -115 |
| 30 | Côte d'Ivoire | 751 | 6 | 19 |
| 31 | Ghana | 749 | 6 | 21 |
| 32 | Northern Ireland | 726 | -7 | -125 |
| 33 | Costa Rica | 723 | -10 | -130 |
| 34 | Wales | 713 | -8 | -133 |
| 35 | Republic of Ireland | 704 | -2 | -64 |
| 36 | Iceland | 675 | -2 | -76 |
| 37 | Iran | 674 | 2 | -14 |
| 38 | Sweden | 656 | -3 | -79 |
| 39 | Senegal | 651 | 2 | -26 |
| 40 | Paraguay | 636 | 4 | -2 |
| 41 | Egypt | 632 | 4 | 1 |
| 42 | Denmark | 630 | -4 | -67 |
| 43 | Tunisia | 627 | 4 | -2 |
| 44 | Peru | 621 | 4 | -2 |
| 45 | Serbia | 612 | 9 | 36 |
| 46 | Albania | 607 | -4 | -60 |
| 47 | Korea Republic | 592 | 3 | -11 |
| 48 | Venezuela | 589 | 29 | 133 |
| 49 | Norway | 588 | 2 | -5 |
| 50 | Scotland | 584 | -7 | -75 |
| 51 | Panama | 580 | 5 | 8 |
| 52 | Greece | 579 | -12 | -99 |
| 53 | Cameroon | 575 | 5 | 9 |
| 54 | Morocco | 574 | 8 | 19 |
| 55 | Jamaica | 573 | -9 | -57 |
| 56 | Uzbekistan | 569 | 10 | 25 |
| 57 | Japan | 564 | -4 | -17 |
| 58 | Congo DR | 563 | -6 | -26 |
| 59 | Australia | 555 | 0 | -8 |
| 60 | Mali | 546 | 3 | -8 |
| 61 | Cape Verde Islands | 545 | -12 | -75 |
| 62 | Guinea | 544 | -7 | -29 |
| 63 | South Africa | 543 | 5 | 14 |
| 63 | Trinidad and Tobago | 543 | 1 | -7 |
| 65 | Slovenia | 542 | -8 | -25 |
| 66 | Finland | 540 | 1 | 4 |
| 66 | Saudi Arabia | 540 | -1 | -5 |
| 68 | Benin | 525 | 7 | 52 |
| 69 | Uganda | 522 | 3 | 22 |
| 70 | Congo | 514 | -10 | -46 |
| 70 | Nigeria | 514 | -9 | -45 |
| 72 | Belarus | 507 | 6 | 65 |
| 73 | Burkina Faso | 487 | 0 | 8 |
| 74 | United Arab Emirates | 484 | -4 | -33 |
| 75 | Guinea-Bissau | 482 | 40 | 179 |
| 76 | Israel | 471 | -5 | -42 |
| 77 | Bulgaria | 446 | -8 | -72 |
| 78 | Jordan | 438 | 2 | 4 |
| 79 | Zambia | 436 | 0 | 0 |
| 80 | Qatar | 425 | 4 | 18 |
| 81 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 423 | 11 | 49 |
| 82 | China PR | 422 | -1 | -1 |
| 83 | Honduras | 398 | 3 | 5 |
| 84 | Antigua and Barbuda | 393 | -1 | -20 |
| 85 | Equatorial Guinea | 389 | -9 | -77 |
| 86 | Cyprus | 387 | -2 | -20 |
| 87 | Central African Republic | 386 | 9 | 35 |
| 87 | Kenya | 386 | 42 | 110 |
| 89 | New Zealand | 381 | 58 | 161 |
| 90 | Guatemala | 376 | 1 | -2 |
| 90 | Sierra Leone | 376 | 18 | 59 |
| 92 | Botswana | 375 | -5 | -16 |
| 93 | Liberia | 370 | 30 | 78 |
| 94 | Libya | 366 | 28 | 73 |
| 95 | Montenegro | 365 | -5 | -17 |
| 96 | Mozambique | 363 | 1 | 14 |
| 97 | Kazakhstan | 359 | 15 | 47 |
| 98 | Gabon | 355 | -10 | -33 |
| 99 | Iraq | 354 | 3 | 20 |
| 100 | Canada | 350 | -7 | -13 |
| 100 | Haiti | 350 | -26 | -128 |
| 102 | Armenia | 348 | 8 | 33 |
| 103 | Kyrgyzstan | 341 | 8 | 28 |
| 103 | Syria | 341 | -2 | 5 |
| 105 | Oman | 340 | -5 | 2 |
| 106 | Togo | 339 | -11 | -19 |
| 107 | Bolivia | 338 | -25 | -82 |
| 107 | Latvia | 338 | -3 | 8 |
| 109 | Rwanda | 334 | -6 | 2 |
| 109 | Swaziland | 334 | 8 | 32 |
| 111 | Puerto Rico | 332 | 47 | 165 |
| 112 | Chad | 326 | -6 | 0 |
| 112 | Palestine | 326 | 1 | 15 |
| 114 | Estonia | 323 | -20 | -37 |
| 115 | Korea DPR | 320 | -17 | -28 |
| 116 | Georgia | 318 | 21 | 58 |
| 117 | Mauritania | 317 | 4 | 23 |
| 118 | Turkmenistan | 312 | 16 | 48 |
| 119 | Nicaragua | 311 | -14 | -18 |
| 120 | Cuba | 305 | 6 | 20 |
| 120 | Thailand | 305 | -3 | 3 |
| 122 | Zimbabwe | 303 | -7 | 0 |
| 123 | Tanzania | 300 | 13 | 39 |
| 124 | Burundi | 297 | 8 | 28 |
| 124 | El Salvador | 297 | -25 | -45 |
| 126 | Lithuania | 293 | 1 | 11 |
| 127 | Bahrain | 289 | 3 | 18 |
| 128 | Namibia | 282 | 7 | 19 |
| 129 | Guyana | 280 | 1 | 9 |
| 130 | Niger | 277 | -13 | -25 |
| 131 | Madagascar | 273 | -23 | -44 |
| 132 | Ethiopia | 270 | -7 | -18 |
| 133 | Malawi | 269 | -26 | -51 |
| 134 | Angola | 263 | -11 | -29 |
| 135 | Curaçao | 261 | 19 | 70 |
| 136 | Philippines | 256 | -16 | -43 |
| 137 | Faroe Islands | 254 | -48 | -129 |
| 138 | Azerbaijan | 253 | 0 | 1 |
| 139 | Dominican Republic | 243 | 14 | 50 |
| 139 | FYR Macedonia | 243 | 0 | -7 |
| 139 | Vietnam | 243 | -6 | -23 |
| 142 | Sudan | 229 | -14 | -49 |
| 143 | Kuwait | 223 | -2 | -18 |
| 144 | Tajikistan | 220 | 20 | 70 |
| 145 | Luxembourg | 219 | 1 | -2 |
| 146 | Aruba | 216 | -3 | -17 |
| 147 | Hong Kong | 213 | -4 | -20 |
| 148 | Mauritius | 212 | -6 | -27 |
| 149 | Lebanon | 208 | 2 | 9 |
| 150 | Afghanistan | 206 | 6 | 22 |
| 151 | India | 200 | 12 | 49 |
| 152 | São Tomé e Príncipe | 197 | 0 | 0 |
| 152 | South Sudan | 197 | 5 | 23 |
| 154 | Comoros | 191 | 8 | 33 |
| 155 | Barbados | 182 | -15 | -63 |
| 155 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 182 | -7 | -29 |
| 157 | Grenada | 178 | -7 | -25 |
| 158 | Singapore | 175 | -9 | -32 |
| 159 | Myanmar | 167 | 2 | 6 |
| 160 | Lesotho | 166 | -5 | -19 |
| 161 | New Caledonia | 165 | 22 | 91 |
| 162 | Yemen | 160 | 16 | 58 |
| 163 | Gambia | 154 | 2 | 9 |
| 164 | Belize | 152 | -50 | -155 |
| 165 | Moldova | 151 | -6 | -14 |
| 166 | Malaysia | 140 | 7 | 24 |
| 167 | Papua New Guinea | 138 | 26 | 87 |
| 168 | American Samoa | 128 | 0 | 0 |
| 168 | Cook Islands | 128 | 0 | 0 |
| 170 | Suriname | 123 | 20 | 66 |
| 171 | St. Lucia | 121 | -26 | -104 |
| 172 | Guam | 120 | -12 | -44 |
| 173 | Dominica | 117 | -1 | -7 |
| 174 | Maldives | 115 | 0 | 0 |
| 175 | Tahiti | 114 | 4 | 18 |
| 176 | Malta | 109 | -10 | -32 |
| 177 | Laos | 107 | -3 | -8 |
| 178 | Samoa | 106 | -10 | -22 |
| 179 | Vanuatu | 103 | 6 | 31 |
| 180 | Cambodia | 95 | 4 | 22 |
| 181 | Fiji | 93 | 5 | 25 |
| 182 | Solomon Islands | 92 | -6 | -18 |
| 183 | Liechtenstein | 89 | -15 | -39 |
| 184 | Bangladesh | 85 | -3 | -8 |
| 184 | Chinese Taipei | 85 | 7 | 29 |
| 186 | Seychelles | 84 | -6 | -10 |
| 186 | Timor-Leste | 84 | -9 | -22 |
| 188 | Bermuda | 77 | -21 | -58 |
| 188 | Nepal | 77 | -6 | 0 |
| 190 | Kosovo | 66 | N/A | 66 |
| 191 | Indonesia | 65 | -4 | 0 |
| 192 | Bhutan | 64 | -4 | 0 |
| 193 | Sri Lanka | 58 | -4 | 0 |
| 194 | Pakistan | 54 | -2 | 0 |
| 195 | Macau | 50 | 1 | 8 |
| 196 | Montserrat | 44 | -2 | 0 |
| 196 | US Virgin Islands | 44 | -2 | 0 |
| 198 | Brunei Darussalam | 33 | -1 | -4 |
| 199 | Cayman Islands | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 200 | San Marino | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| 200 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 20 | -2 | -13 |
| 202 | Mongolia | 13 | 1 | 9 |
| 203 | Andorra | 12 | -1 | 1 |
| 204 | British Virgin Islands | 11 | -3 | -5 |
| 205 | Anguilla | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 205 | Bahamas | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 205 | Djibouti | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 205 | Eritrea | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 205 | Somalia | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 205 | Tonga | 0 | -1 | 0 |
I think it is a must to stop producing this ranking.As it is not used for confection of teams in WCQ after using of the "special " ranking.
ReplyDeleteEd, we had a questions and we need answers from anyone who are interesting in ranking and fair play:
ReplyDelete1- what was the reason for all this time to decide on the special FIFA ranking despite that the dates of the fifth round for the Africa Cup of Nations 2017 have already been set and previously known even before setting the date of the draw of the third round last November?
2- the date and the venue and the system of the draw of the third round of the qualifiers to the World Cup will be announced following the second round which is in November 2015” , date was fixed on the 24th of June in Cairo in order to conduct the draw.he usual procedure is that the last ranking of the national teams taken into consideration before the draw, which is the ranking of June 2 in which Egypt, was ranked fifth in the Africa, SO ,why was a special FIFA ranking was decided on the 5th of April, which is contradictory to the said articles of the FIFA World Cup Regulations.
3- dates around 8th to 10th June were set to be the dates to release the special FIFA Coca-Cola ranking,The ranking was CALCULATED on June 7th and was published to the media on June 8th before informing the Egyptian FA with it on the 9th of June.
4- Seeing that Egypt was ranked in the fifth place on the 2nd of June 2016 ranking –The Normal ranking- and seeing that Egypt won its last match against Tanzania on the 4th of June 2016, hence the logical procedure is that Egypt remains in its 5th position in the ranking, Egypt went to the seventh position in the SPECIAL ranking, why??
Hossam,
ReplyDeleteI don't know the answers. You know my point of view:
FIFA leaves much too much room for invented rules in their official World Cup qualifying regulations. Important issues like the seeding procedure for draws and the draw procedure to be used etc. are not written out at all in their published regulations but left to 'the discretion of organising committees'. The only 'concrete' regulation about the seeding is 'the FIFA ranking shall be used to seed the teams'. If you call that a concrete statement then you can sleep soundly....
Btw if they want to better their lifes then they should take example from f.i. UEFA where the complete qualification, seeding and drawing procedure of the EURO 2016 tournament are written out in regulations published December 12th 2013 (qualification started in September 2014).
Most of the times FIFA uses this room in the regulations in the expected way: using the latest ranking available at the time of the draw. But this time they have made a real mess of it:
- the second round of CAF-qualifying ended in November 2015;
- invent a special ranking on April 5th 2016. At that moment the June 2016 ranking could already be determined with reasonable precision after the March AFCON-qualifiers;
- introduce it in a very limited way: a mail to one African football association (Tunisia; Senegal FA reported also about it afterwards);
- in this brief introduction leave again all the room they could possibly need: no explanation how the extra ranking will be calculated and a window of publishing dates (June 8-10);
- finally they publish the special ranking (ok, calculated in the normal way, I have to give them that) on June 7th !
For now this whole process is more than suspect. It has corruption written all over it. I find it repulsive and disgusting. You have my sympathies, although you can't buy any bread with that.
And to be clear once again: I'm not the one deciding what content this blog publishes. It is Edgar's blog, I'm just commenting.
Thanks Ed, your message is clear. We sent a complaint to FIFA,CAF, and if no response,, we will go to CAS.
ReplyDeleteHossam, if I may ask (and you don't have to answer if you don't want to): who is "we" in your last reply ? What is your role exactly ? Are you part of Egyptian FA, just a committed fan ?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIam a normal fan , not a part of any assosiation , the news released today said that EFA sent a complaint
ReplyDeleteHossam, thanks for answering. I just read it also on Kingfut, although they only mention CAS, not FIFA or CAF. Anyway, I wish you as a fan and Egypt NT all the best with this complaint. May it bear fruit. And please, keep us posted about the results.
ReplyDeleteIam a follower for the blog since 2013,,, i ll update you sure.
ReplyDeleteFIFA accepted the compaint ,, ranking will be calculated again at 21 June. FIFA sent a letter today to the 20 teams in the draw.
ReplyDeletewhat will the situation in June 21 ?
ReplyDeleteIn Circular 1355 of FIFA, they say there may only maximum of 2 matches in any FIFA dates. So if any teamm play the 3rd match, it woudn't be counted, i.e. VIE vs SYR on 31st May. Are there any match else which wasn't counted in the same situation??
ReplyDeleteOnly Philippines come to mind - they have 3 matches schedule for their Peace Cup last year if I'm not mistaken. They had to change the format from league of 4 to straight KO.
Deletenow I wish that match hat taken place on 29th May. A lot of points for that win had lost
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteChile just won copa america and were in 5th, and now possibly 10th. does not make sense
ReplyDelete