Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.
Probable October 2016 rank - Team - Probable October 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Argentina | 1762 | 0 | 116 |
2 | Germany | 1465 | 1 | 118 |
3 | Colombia | 1425 | 1 | 102 |
4 | Brazil | 1410 | 0 | 87 |
5 | Belgium | 1382 | -3 | 13 |
6 | Chile | 1358 | 0 | 74 |
7 | Portugal | 1231 | 0 | 3 |
8 | France | 1220 | 0 | 32 |
9 | Spain | 1168 | 2 | 27 |
10 | England | 1137 | 2 | 7 |
10 | Wales | 1137 | 0 | -24 |
12 | Uruguay | 1134 | -3 | -39 |
13 | Italy | 1082 | 0 | -42 |
14 | Poland | 1029 | 3 | 45 |
15 | Croatia | 1027 | -1 | -32 |
16 | Switzerland | 1003 | 0 | -17 |
17 | Mexico | 1001 | -2 | -56 |
18 | Netherlands | 949 | 6 | 88 |
19 | Costa Rica | 946 | -1 | 3 |
20 | Turkey | 934 | 1 | 49 |
21 | Hungary | 929 | -1 | 16 |
22 | Slovakia | 863 | 6 | 43 |
23 | USA | 862 | -1 | -12 |
24 | Iceland | 846 | 3 | 17 |
25 | Peru | 830 | 0 | -11 |
26 | Algeria | 827 | 9 | 78 |
27 | Ecuador | 820 | -8 | -97 |
28 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 807 | -5 | -56 |
29 | Romania | 795 | 3 | 22 |
30 | Austria | 792 | -4 | -47 |
31 | Côte d'Ivoire | 790 | 3 | 38 |
32 | Senegal | 783 | 7 | 99 |
33 | Republic of Ireland | 776 | -2 | 2 |
34 | Ukraine | 766 | -5 | -33 |
35 | Northern Ireland | 739 | -5 | -59 |
36 | Tunisia | 721 | 6 | 59 |
37 | Australia | 719 | 8 | 76 |
38 | Sweden | 715 | 3 | 38 |
39 | Iran | 708 | -2 | -4 |
40 | Czech Republic | 691 | -7 | -71 |
41 | Serbia | 687 | 9 | 85 |
42 | Ghana | 685 | 1 | 27 |
43 | Denmark | 677 | 3 | 40 |
44 | Korea Republic | 672 | 3 | 38 |
45 | Greece | 656 | 3 | 34 |
46 | Uzbekistan | 646 | 3 | 25 |
47 | Scotland | 628 | -3 | -24 |
48 | Congo DR | 623 | 3 | 34 |
49 | Albania | 619 | -9 | -59 |
50 | Paraguay | 613 | -14 | -107 |
51 | Congo | 610 | 3 | 25 |
52 | Russia | 608 | -14 | -77 |
53 | Egypt | 570 | 0 | -17 |
54 | Japan | 568 | 2 | -6 |
54 | Mali | 568 | 1 | -12 |
56 | Morocco | 562 | 2 | -8 |
56 | Nigeria | 562 | 8 | 28 |
58 | South Africa | 559 | 4 | 20 |
59 | Panama | 551 | 3 | 12 |
60 | Cameroon | 544 | -1 | -21 |
61 | Guinea | 539 | 0 | -10 |
62 | United Arab Emirates | 536 | 4 | 32 |
63 | Trinidad and Tobago | 533 | 6 | 43 |
64 | Saudi Arabia | 530 | -12 | -58 |
65 | Benin | 525 | 6 | 42 |
66 | Burkina Faso | 519 | 1 | 17 |
67 | Antigua and Barbuda | 518 | 22 | 137 |
68 | Venezuela | 516 | -8 | -46 |
69 | Guinea-Bissau | 515 | 4 | 41 |
70 | Cape Verde Islands | 508 | 2 | 33 |
71 | Belarus | 486 | -14 | -87 |
72 | Norway | 483 | -2 | -4 |
72 | Uganda | 483 | -7 | -26 |
74 | China PR | 474 | 4 | 29 |
75 | Jamaica | 473 | 5 | 43 |
76 | Libya | 461 | 0 | -5 |
77 | Haiti | 454 | 16 | 82 |
78 | Slovenia | 448 | -11 | -54 |
79 | Bolivia | 444 | -4 | -24 |
80 | Guatemala | 434 | -1 | -9 |
81 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 433 | -4 | -24 |
82 | Honduras | 421 | 0 | 0 |
83 | Montenegro | 407 | 22 | 81 |
84 | Israel | 397 | 14 | 51 |
85 | Bulgaria | 395 | -11 | -75 |
86 | Latvia | 389 | 9 | 32 |
87 | Kenya | 378 | 4 | 0 |
88 | Zambia | 377 | 4 | 0 |
89 | Equatorial Guinea | 373 | -8 | -51 |
90 | Qatar | 366 | -5 | -23 |
91 | Mozambique | 359 | -2 | -22 |
92 | Sierra Leone | 352 | 1 | -20 |
92 | Togo | 352 | 8 | 18 |
94 | Malawi | 338 | 5 | -4 |
95 | Finland | 337 | -11 | -72 |
96 | Chad | 334 | 9 | 8 |
97 | Botswana | 332 | 0 | -16 |
97 | Jordan | 332 | -11 | -55 |
97 | Liberia | 332 | 6 | 3 |
100 | Swaziland | 330 | 0 | -4 |
101 | Central African Republic | 325 | 21 | 26 |
101 | Nicaragua | 325 | 1 | -5 |
101 | Rwanda | 325 | 6 | 0 |
104 | Canada | 323 | -1 | -6 |
104 | Gabon | 323 | 4 | -1 |
106 | Kyrgyzstan | 322 | 2 | -2 |
106 | Turkmenistan | 322 | 10 | 10 |
108 | Kazakhstan | 317 | -25 | -94 |
109 | Zimbabwe | 316 | 4 | 0 |
110 | Faroe Islands | 313 | 1 | -6 |
111 | Mauritania | 308 | -15 | -41 |
112 | Namibia | 300 | 9 | -1 |
113 | Estonia | 299 | 17 | 25 |
113 | Lithuania | 299 | 4 | -12 |
115 | Iraq | 289 | 13 | 10 |
116 | Korea DPR | 288 | 2 | -14 |
116 | New Zealand | 288 | -28 | -94 |
118 | Syria | 286 | -4 | -29 |
119 | Palestine | 285 | -1 | -17 |
120 | Dominican Republic | 281 | -6 | -34 |
120 | Philippines | 281 | 5 | -16 |
122 | Oman | 275 | -12 | -48 |
123 | Armenia | 270 | -11 | -47 |
124 | Curaçao | 268 | -2 | -31 |
125 | Ethiopia | 267 | 1 | -17 |
126 | Guyana | 262 | -8 | -40 |
126 | Niger | 262 | -4 | -37 |
128 | Puerto Rico | 249 | 10 | 15 |
129 | Bahrain | 247 | -3 | -37 |
130 | Yemen | 244 | 17 | 34 |
131 | Madagascar | 243 | 0 | -26 |
132 | Angola | 236 | 2 | -11 |
133 | Azerbaijan | 232 | 0 | -20 |
133 | El Salvador | 232 | 7 | 4 |
135 | India | 230 | 13 | 25 |
136 | Burundi | 229 | -7 | -49 |
137 | Cyprus | 228 | -50 | -156 |
138 | Hong Kong | 227 | 4 | 6 |
138 | Tajikistan | 227 | 6 | 12 |
140 | Cuba | 226 | -1 | -3 |
141 | Georgia | 224 | -4 | -16 |
142 | Comoros | 223 | 10 | 32 |
143 | Lebanon | 222 | 0 | 4 |
143 | Thailand | 222 | -8 | -24 |
145 | Luxembourg | 213 | 0 | 0 |
146 | Tanzania | 212 | -14 | -52 |
147 | Afghanistan | 208 | 2 | 7 |
147 | Vietnam | 208 | -6 | -17 |
149 | Sudan | 204 | -14 | -42 |
150 | Lesotho | 201 | 0 | 1 |
151 | FYR Macedonia | 195 | -5 | -16 |
152 | Mauritius | 194 | 1 | 10 |
153 | São Tomé e Príncipe | 177 | -2 | -20 |
154 | Grenada | 172 | 2 | 0 |
155 | Myanmar | 165 | -2 | -19 |
156 | Barbados | 163 | 1 | -8 |
157 | Maldives | 161 | 8 | 14 |
158 | Papua New Guinea | 152 | 4 | 0 |
159 | Aruba | 147 | 1 | -8 |
160 | Chinese Taipei | 145 | 18 | 48 |
161 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 142 | 3 | -6 |
162 | Belize | 141 | 4 | 0 |
163 | Kosovo | 135 | 5 | 0 |
163 | Suriname | 135 | 12 | 35 |
165 | Malaysia | 131 | -7 | -27 |
166 | Singapore | 130 | -11 | -46 |
167 | Cambodia | 123 | 6 | 20 |
167 | Kuwait | 123 | -8 | -33 |
167 | South Sudan | 123 | 0 | -15 |
167 | St. Lucia | 123 | 4 | 6 |
171 | Tahiti | 120 | 1 | 4 |
172 | Moldova | 119 | -11 | -35 |
173 | Dominica | 110 | -3 | -14 |
174 | Laos | 107 | 2 | 8 |
175 | Gambia | 106 | -6 | -23 |
176 | New Caledonia | 104 | -14 | -48 |
177 | Vanuatu | 103 | -4 | 0 |
178 | Malta | 97 | -2 | -2 |
179 | Bangladesh | 94 | 6 | 19 |
180 | Fiji | 93 | -1 | 0 |
181 | Timor-Leste | 88 | 2 | 8 |
182 | Guam | 86 | -2 | -5 |
183 | Indonesia | 83 | -2 | -6 |
184 | Liechtenstein | 82 | -2 | -4 |
185 | Seychelles | 79 | 3 | 7 |
186 | Bermuda | 77 | -2 | 0 |
187 | Nepal | 74 | -1 | 0 |
188 | Solomon Islands | 66 | -2 | -8 |
189 | American Samoa | 64 | 1 | 0 |
189 | Cook Islands | 64 | 1 | 0 |
189 | Samoa | 64 | 1 | 0 |
192 | Bhutan | 53 | -3 | -12 |
193 | Sri Lanka | 48 | 0 | -4 |
194 | US Virgin Islands | 44 | 1 | 0 |
195 | Macau | 40 | 0 | -4 |
196 | Pakistan | 39 | -2 | -7 |
197 | Brunei Darussalam | 32 | 0 | -1 |
198 | Montserrat | 30 | 0 | 0 |
199 | Cayman Islands | 21 | 0 | 0 |
200 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 20 | 0 | 0 |
201 | San Marino | 17 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Mongolia | 13 | 0 | 0 |
203 | Andorra | 11 | 0 | 0 |
203 | British Virgin Islands | 11 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Bahamas | 0 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Djibouti | 0 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Eritrea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Gibraltar | 0 | - | - |
205 | Somalia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
205 | Tonga | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Here are (in two parts) the probabilities for each team in each confederation in world cup qualifying at the start of the October matchdays. Calculated using the ClubElo's expected goals formula based on expected home team win expectancy according to elo.
ReplyDeleteAll probabilities [%] after 1000 simulations.
-- UEFA --
columns:
- group
- 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs
- 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs
- 2nd place in group and worst number 2
A 34,1 52,6 13,3
B 76,5 21,3 2,2
C 30,4 51,2 18,4
D 33,3 56,1 10,6
E 25,0 58,3 16,7
F 39,8 50,4 9,8
G 75,9 20,4 3,7
H 62,2 32,3 5,5
I 22,8 57,4 19,8
columns:
- team
- 1st place in group
- 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs
- 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs
- 2nd place in group and worst number 2
- 3rd-6th place in group
Group A
FRA 54,2 12,7 13,7 2,6 16,8
NED 36,5 14,6 20,1 4,3 24,5
SWE 6,0 3,8 9,9 3,0 77,3
BUL 1,7 1,0 4,3 1,9 91,1
BLR 1,6 2,0 4,6 1,5 90,3
LUX 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0
Group B
SUI 53,7 28,4 6,4 0,6 10,9
POR 38,9 36,8 8,2 0,3 15,8
HUN 6,6 9,6 4,6 0,8 78,4
LAT 0,8 1,7 2,1 0,5 94,9
FAR 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0
AND 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0
Group C
GER 90,6 6,1 1,7 0,0 1,6
CZE 5,0 11,4 19,6 7,0 57,0
NIR 3,1 8,1 16,1 5,7 67,0
NOR 1,2 4,2 11,8 4,1 78,7
AZB 0,1 0,6 2,0 1,6 95,7
SMR 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0
Group D
WAL 32,8 8,7 15,5 1,3 41,7
AUT 26,6 9,7 14,0 3,4 46,3
IRL 25,9 7,5 14,8 3,0 48,8
SRB 14,3 7,3 11,0 2,3 65,1
GEO 0,3 0,1 0,8 0,5 98,3
MOL 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 99,8
Group E
POL 40,6 8,9 15,4 3,7 31,4
DEN 36,4 8,0 19,1 4,0 32,5
ROM 14,6 5,0 12,9 3,7 63,8
MNE 5,9 1,9 5,8 3,3 83,1
ARM 1,9 0,7 3,6 1,1 92,7
KAZ 0,6 0,5 1,5 0,9 96,5
Group F
ENG 77,6 10,3 6,3 0,8 5,0
SCO 15,3 14,0 18,6 3,6 48,5
SVK 5,2 11,9 16,8 3,3 62,8
SVN 1,8 3,3 7,8 1,4 85,7
LIT 0,1 0,3 0,8 0,7 98,1
MLT 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,0 99,9
Group G
ESP 49,9 33,9 7,6 1,3 7,3
ITA 47,6 36,8 8,0 1,1 6,5
ALB 2,2 4,1 3,4 0,5 89,8
ISR 0,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 97,4
MAC 0,1 0,1 0,6 0,2 99,0
LIE 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0
Group H
BEL 64,5 20,8 5,3 0,6 8,8
BOS 27,9 30,0 13,6 2,3 26,2
GRE 6,8 10,8 10,3 1,8 70,3
EST 0,6 0,5 2,5 0,6 95,8
CYP 0,2 0,1 0,6 0,2 98,9
GIB 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0
Group I
TUR 34,8 8,8 15,9 5,0 35,5
CRO 33,2 7,3 15,0 5,5 39,0
ISL 17,1 3,3 12,4 4,1 63,1
UKR 12,6 2,8 10,7 3,8 70,1
FIN 2,2 0,5 3,3 1,1 92,9
KOS 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,3 99,4
-- CAF --
columns:
- team
- 1st place in group
- 2nd-4th place in group
Group A
TUN 31,0 69,0
GUI 26,2 73,8
COD 23,8 76,2
LBY 19,0 81,0
Group B
ALG 33,5 66,5
NGA 31,4 68,6
CMR 27,9 72,1
ZAM 7,2 92,8
Group C
CIV 51,2 48,8
MLI 23,3 76,7
MAR 18,6 81,4
GAB 6,9 93,1
Group D
SEN 52,0 48,0
RSA 28,1 71,9
BFA 10,9 89,1
CPV 9,0 91,0
Group E
EGY 37,2 62,8
GHA 33,2 66,8
UGA 17,8 82,2
CGO 11,8 88,2
The attentative reader will have seen that the numbers for the second place in UEFA are not as described:
Delete- 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs
- 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs
- 2nd place in group and worst number 2
but are determined according to
- 2nd place in group and 1st-4th in ranking of numbers 2
- 2nd place in group and 5th-8th in ranking of numbers 2
- 2nd place in group and worst number 2
Next time they really will be divided into seeded and unseeded, assuming the seeding of the 8 groupnumbers 2 will follow the FIFA-ranking of October 2017 instead of the points-ranking of groupnumbers 2.
-- AFC --
ReplyDeletecolumns:
- team
- 1st-2nd place in group
- 3rd place in group
- 4th-6th place in group
- winner 5th place play-off
- winner 5th place play-off, given a team is in that play-off
- winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
- total probability to qualify for WC2018
Group A
KOR 67,9 19,7 12,4 13,0 66,0 8,6 76,5
IRN 59,8 23,2 17,0 16,7 72,0 11,3 71,1
UZB 55,1 26,5 18,4 14,8 55,8 7,8 62,9
CHN 8,7 15,5 75,8 8,6 55,5 4,2 12,9
SYR 5,7 9,4 84,9 4,2 44,7 0,8 6,5
QAT 2,8 5,7 91,5 2,9 50,9 1,4 4,2
Group B
AUS 77,9 14,4 7,7 5,9 41,0 3,4 81,3
JPN 55,7 24,0 20,3 12,6 52,5 6,9 62,6
KSA 34,9 25,7 39,4 9,0 35,0 3,6 38,5
UAE 27,3 26,7 46,0 9,7 36,3 3,9 31,2
THA 2,0 5,2 92,8 1,2 23,1 0,4 2,4
IRQ 2,2 4,0 93,8 1,4 35,0 0,7 2,9
-- CONCACAF --
columns:
- team
- 1st-3rd place in group
- 4th place in group
- 5th-6th place in group
- winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
- total probability to qualify for WC2018
Hexagonal
MEX 88,2 6,9 4,9 4,2 92,4
CRC 73,5 15,2 11,3 7,9 81,4
USA 67,5 16,9 15,6 9,5 77,0
PAN 38,9 24,3 36,8 10,6 49,5
HON 18,6 18,9 62,5 7,9 26,5
TRI 13,3 17,8 68,9 6,9 20,2
-- OFC --
columns:
- team
- 1st place in group
- 2nd-3rd place in group
- winner 1st place play-off
- winner 1st place play-off, given a team is in that play-off
- winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
Group A
NZL 70,8 29,2 61,1 86,3 8,6
NCL 19,4 80,6 13,1 67,5 1,0
FIJ 9,8 90,2 5,8 59,2 0,2
Group B
TAH 46,5 53,5 10,4 22,4 0,2
PNG 27,6 72,4 4,5 16,3 0,0
SOL 25,9 74,1 5,1 19,7 0,0
-- CONMEBOL --
columns:
- team
- 1st-4th place in group
- 5th place in group
- 6th-10th place in group
- winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
- total probability to qualify for WC2018
Group
ARG 92,5 5,4 2,1 5,4 97,9
BRA 86,8 9,1 4,1 8,1 94,9
URU 77,4 13,9 8,7 12,4 89,8
COL 59,3 18,8 21,9 17,9 77,2
CHI 52,3 21,6 26,1 20,4 72,7
ECU 20,5 15,7 63,8 12,4 32,9
PAR 8,4 10,7 80,9 9,0 17,4
PER 2,2 4,1 93,7 3,9 6,1
BOL 0,5 0,4 99,1 0,4 0,9
VEN 0,1 0,3 99,6 0,1 0,2
thanks Ed, that's very interesting information to review
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome. Apparently Edgar didn't find the time and I was becoming (very) curious myself, so I thought I'd give it a go.
ReplyDeleteSorry for the lousy formatting.
I'm planning to update this overview after every matchday.
Why do you think Russia will fall below the FIFA Rankings?
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by 'think'? These aren't thoughts but calculations
DeleteКыргызстан алга!
ReplyDeleteЖашасын!
Delete