▼

Friday, September 23, 2016

FIFA Ranking: October 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 20 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.



Probable October 2016 rank - Team - Probable October 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Argentina 1762 0 116
2 Germany 1465 1 118
3 Colombia 1425 1 102
4 Brazil 1410 0 87
5 Belgium 1382 -3 13
6 Chile 1358 0 74
7 Portugal 1231 0 3
8 France 1220 0 32
9 Spain 1168 2 27
10 England 1137 2 7
10 Wales 1137 0 -24
12 Uruguay 1134 -3 -39
13 Italy 1082 0 -42
14 Poland 1029 3 45
15 Croatia 1027 -1 -32
16 Switzerland 1003 0 -17
17 Mexico 1001 -2 -56
18 Netherlands 949 6 88
19 Costa Rica 946 -1 3
20 Turkey 934 1 49
21 Hungary 929 -1 16
22 Slovakia 863 6 43
23 USA 862 -1 -12
24 Iceland 846 3 17
25 Peru 830 0 -11
26 Algeria 827 9 78
27 Ecuador 820 -8 -97
28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 807 -5 -56
29 Romania 795 3 22
30 Austria 792 -4 -47
31 Côte d'Ivoire 790 3 38
32 Senegal 783 7 99
33 Republic of Ireland 776 -2 2
34 Ukraine 766 -5 -33
35 Northern Ireland 739 -5 -59
36 Tunisia 721 6 59
37 Australia 719 8 76
38 Sweden 715 3 38
39 Iran 708 -2 -4
40 Czech Republic 691 -7 -71
41 Serbia 687 9 85
42 Ghana 685 1 27
43 Denmark 677 3 40
44 Korea Republic 672 3 38
45 Greece 656 3 34
46 Uzbekistan 646 3 25
47 Scotland 628 -3 -24
48 Congo DR 623 3 34
49 Albania 619 -9 -59
50 Paraguay 613 -14 -107
51 Congo 610 3 25
52 Russia 608 -14 -77
53 Egypt 570 0 -17
54 Japan 568 2 -6
54 Mali 568 1 -12
56 Morocco 562 2 -8
56 Nigeria 562 8 28
58 South Africa 559 4 20
59 Panama 551 3 12
60 Cameroon 544 -1 -21
61 Guinea 539 0 -10
62 United Arab Emirates 536 4 32
63 Trinidad and Tobago 533 6 43
64 Saudi Arabia 530 -12 -58
65 Benin 525 6 42
66 Burkina Faso 519 1 17
67 Antigua and Barbuda 518 22 137
68 Venezuela 516 -8 -46
69 Guinea-Bissau 515 4 41
70 Cape Verde Islands 508 2 33
71 Belarus 486 -14 -87
72 Norway 483 -2 -4
72 Uganda 483 -7 -26
74 China PR 474 4 29
75 Jamaica 473 5 43
76 Libya 461 0 -5
77 Haiti 454 16 82
78 Slovenia 448 -11 -54
79 Bolivia 444 -4 -24
80 Guatemala 434 -1 -9
81 St. Kitts and Nevis 433 -4 -24
82 Honduras 421 0 0
83 Montenegro 407 22 81
84 Israel 397 14 51
85 Bulgaria 395 -11 -75
86 Latvia 389 9 32
87 Kenya 378 4 0
88 Zambia 377 4 0
89 Equatorial Guinea 373 -8 -51
90 Qatar 366 -5 -23
91 Mozambique 359 -2 -22
92 Sierra Leone 352 1 -20
92 Togo 352 8 18
94 Malawi 338 5 -4
95 Finland 337 -11 -72
96 Chad 334 9 8
97 Botswana 332 0 -16
97 Jordan 332 -11 -55
97 Liberia 332 6 3
100 Swaziland 330 0 -4
101 Central African Republic 325 21 26
101 Nicaragua 325 1 -5
101 Rwanda 325 6 0
104 Canada 323 -1 -6
104 Gabon 323 4 -1
106 Kyrgyzstan 322 2 -2
106 Turkmenistan 322 10 10
108 Kazakhstan 317 -25 -94
109 Zimbabwe 316 4 0
110 Faroe Islands 313 1 -6
111 Mauritania 308 -15 -41
112 Namibia 300 9 -1
113 Estonia 299 17 25
113 Lithuania 299 4 -12
115 Iraq 289 13 10
116 Korea DPR 288 2 -14
116 New Zealand 288 -28 -94
118 Syria 286 -4 -29
119 Palestine 285 -1 -17
120 Dominican Republic 281 -6 -34
120 Philippines 281 5 -16
122 Oman 275 -12 -48
123 Armenia 270 -11 -47
124 Curaçao 268 -2 -31
125 Ethiopia 267 1 -17
126 Guyana 262 -8 -40
126 Niger 262 -4 -37
128 Puerto Rico 249 10 15
129 Bahrain 247 -3 -37
130 Yemen 244 17 34
131 Madagascar 243 0 -26
132 Angola 236 2 -11
133 Azerbaijan 232 0 -20
133 El Salvador 232 7 4
135 India 230 13 25
136 Burundi 229 -7 -49
137 Cyprus 228 -50 -156
138 Hong Kong 227 4 6
138 Tajikistan 227 6 12
140 Cuba 226 -1 -3
141 Georgia 224 -4 -16
142 Comoros 223 10 32
143 Lebanon 222 0 4
143 Thailand 222 -8 -24
145 Luxembourg 213 0 0
146 Tanzania 212 -14 -52
147 Afghanistan 208 2 7
147 Vietnam 208 -6 -17
149 Sudan 204 -14 -42
150 Lesotho 201 0 1
151 FYR Macedonia 195 -5 -16
152 Mauritius 194 1 10
153 São Tomé e Príncipe 177 -2 -20
154 Grenada 172 2 0
155 Myanmar 165 -2 -19
156 Barbados 163 1 -8
157 Maldives 161 8 14
158 Papua New Guinea 152 4 0
159 Aruba 147 1 -8
160 Chinese Taipei 145 18 48
161 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 142 3 -6
162 Belize 141 4 0
163 Kosovo 135 5 0
163 Suriname 135 12 35
165 Malaysia 131 -7 -27
166 Singapore 130 -11 -46
167 Cambodia 123 6 20
167 Kuwait 123 -8 -33
167 South Sudan 123 0 -15
167 St. Lucia 123 4 6
171 Tahiti 120 1 4
172 Moldova 119 -11 -35
173 Dominica 110 -3 -14
174 Laos 107 2 8
175 Gambia 106 -6 -23
176 New Caledonia 104 -14 -48
177 Vanuatu 103 -4 0
178 Malta 97 -2 -2
179 Bangladesh 94 6 19
180 Fiji 93 -1 0
181 Timor-Leste 88 2 8
182 Guam 86 -2 -5
183 Indonesia 83 -2 -6
184 Liechtenstein 82 -2 -4
185 Seychelles 79 3 7
186 Bermuda 77 -2 0
187 Nepal 74 -1 0
188 Solomon Islands 66 -2 -8
189 American Samoa 64 1 0
189 Cook Islands 64 1 0
189 Samoa 64 1 0
192 Bhutan 53 -3 -12
193 Sri Lanka 48 0 -4
194 US Virgin Islands 44 1 0
195 Macau 40 0 -4
196 Pakistan 39 -2 -7
197 Brunei Darussalam 32 0 -1
198 Montserrat 30 0 0
199 Cayman Islands 21 0 0
200 Turks and Caicos Islands 20 0 0
201 San Marino 17 0 0
202 Mongolia 13 0 0
203 Andorra 11 0 0
203 British Virgin Islands 11 0 0
205 Anguilla 0 0 0
205 Bahamas 0 0 0
205 Djibouti 0 0 0
205 Eritrea 0 0 0
205 Gibraltar 0 - -
205 Somalia 0 0 0
205 Tonga 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

on

9 comments:

  1. EdOctober 2, 2016 at 9:38 PM

    Here are (in two parts) the probabilities for each team in each confederation in world cup qualifying at the start of the October matchdays. Calculated using the ClubElo's expected goals formula based on expected home team win expectancy according to elo.
    All probabilities [%] after 1000 simulations.

    -- UEFA --

    columns:
    - group
    - 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs
    - 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs
    - 2nd place in group and worst number 2

    A 34,1 52,6 13,3
    B 76,5 21,3 2,2
    C 30,4 51,2 18,4
    D 33,3 56,1 10,6
    E 25,0 58,3 16,7
    F 39,8 50,4 9,8
    G 75,9 20,4 3,7
    H 62,2 32,3 5,5
    I 22,8 57,4 19,8

    columns:
    - team
    - 1st place in group
    - 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs
    - 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs
    - 2nd place in group and worst number 2
    - 3rd-6th place in group

    Group A
    FRA 54,2 12,7 13,7 2,6 16,8
    NED 36,5 14,6 20,1 4,3 24,5
    SWE 6,0 3,8 9,9 3,0 77,3
    BUL 1,7 1,0 4,3 1,9 91,1
    BLR 1,6 2,0 4,6 1,5 90,3
    LUX 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0

    Group B
    SUI 53,7 28,4 6,4 0,6 10,9
    POR 38,9 36,8 8,2 0,3 15,8
    HUN 6,6 9,6 4,6 0,8 78,4
    LAT 0,8 1,7 2,1 0,5 94,9
    FAR 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0
    AND 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0

    Group C
    GER 90,6 6,1 1,7 0,0 1,6
    CZE 5,0 11,4 19,6 7,0 57,0
    NIR 3,1 8,1 16,1 5,7 67,0
    NOR 1,2 4,2 11,8 4,1 78,7
    AZB 0,1 0,6 2,0 1,6 95,7
    SMR 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0

    Group D
    WAL 32,8 8,7 15,5 1,3 41,7
    AUT 26,6 9,7 14,0 3,4 46,3
    IRL 25,9 7,5 14,8 3,0 48,8
    SRB 14,3 7,3 11,0 2,3 65,1
    GEO 0,3 0,1 0,8 0,5 98,3
    MOL 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 99,8

    Group E
    POL 40,6 8,9 15,4 3,7 31,4
    DEN 36,4 8,0 19,1 4,0 32,5
    ROM 14,6 5,0 12,9 3,7 63,8
    MNE 5,9 1,9 5,8 3,3 83,1
    ARM 1,9 0,7 3,6 1,1 92,7
    KAZ 0,6 0,5 1,5 0,9 96,5

    Group F
    ENG 77,6 10,3 6,3 0,8 5,0
    SCO 15,3 14,0 18,6 3,6 48,5
    SVK 5,2 11,9 16,8 3,3 62,8
    SVN 1,8 3,3 7,8 1,4 85,7
    LIT 0,1 0,3 0,8 0,7 98,1
    MLT 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,0 99,9

    Group G
    ESP 49,9 33,9 7,6 1,3 7,3
    ITA 47,6 36,8 8,0 1,1 6,5
    ALB 2,2 4,1 3,4 0,5 89,8
    ISR 0,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 97,4
    MAC 0,1 0,1 0,6 0,2 99,0
    LIE 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0

    Group H
    BEL 64,5 20,8 5,3 0,6 8,8
    BOS 27,9 30,0 13,6 2,3 26,2
    GRE 6,8 10,8 10,3 1,8 70,3
    EST 0,6 0,5 2,5 0,6 95,8
    CYP 0,2 0,1 0,6 0,2 98,9
    GIB 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0

    Group I
    TUR 34,8 8,8 15,9 5,0 35,5
    CRO 33,2 7,3 15,0 5,5 39,0
    ISL 17,1 3,3 12,4 4,1 63,1
    UKR 12,6 2,8 10,7 3,8 70,1
    FIN 2,2 0,5 3,3 1,1 92,9
    KOS 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,3 99,4

    -- CAF --
    columns:
    - team
    - 1st place in group
    - 2nd-4th place in group

    Group A
    TUN 31,0 69,0
    GUI 26,2 73,8
    COD 23,8 76,2
    LBY 19,0 81,0

    Group B
    ALG 33,5 66,5
    NGA 31,4 68,6
    CMR 27,9 72,1
    ZAM 7,2 92,8

    Group C
    CIV 51,2 48,8
    MLI 23,3 76,7
    MAR 18,6 81,4
    GAB 6,9 93,1

    Group D
    SEN 52,0 48,0
    RSA 28,1 71,9
    BFA 10,9 89,1
    CPV 9,0 91,0

    Group E
    EGY 37,2 62,8
    GHA 33,2 66,8
    UGA 17,8 82,2
    CGO 11,8 88,2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 5, 2016 at 5:05 PM

      The attentative reader will have seen that the numbers for the second place in UEFA are not as described:
      - 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs
      - 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs
      - 2nd place in group and worst number 2
      but are determined according to
      - 2nd place in group and 1st-4th in ranking of numbers 2
      - 2nd place in group and 5th-8th in ranking of numbers 2
      - 2nd place in group and worst number 2

      Next time they really will be divided into seeded and unseeded, assuming the seeding of the 8 groupnumbers 2 will follow the FIFA-ranking of October 2017 instead of the points-ranking of groupnumbers 2.

      Delete
  2. EdOctober 2, 2016 at 9:39 PM

    -- AFC --
    columns:
    - team
    - 1st-2nd place in group
    - 3rd place in group
    - 4th-6th place in group
    - winner 5th place play-off
    - winner 5th place play-off, given a team is in that play-off
    - winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    - total probability to qualify for WC2018

    Group A
    KOR 67,9 19,7 12,4 13,0 66,0 8,6 76,5
    IRN 59,8 23,2 17,0 16,7 72,0 11,3 71,1
    UZB 55,1 26,5 18,4 14,8 55,8 7,8 62,9
    CHN 8,7 15,5 75,8 8,6 55,5 4,2 12,9
    SYR 5,7 9,4 84,9 4,2 44,7 0,8 6,5
    QAT 2,8 5,7 91,5 2,9 50,9 1,4 4,2

    Group B
    AUS 77,9 14,4 7,7 5,9 41,0 3,4 81,3
    JPN 55,7 24,0 20,3 12,6 52,5 6,9 62,6
    KSA 34,9 25,7 39,4 9,0 35,0 3,6 38,5
    UAE 27,3 26,7 46,0 9,7 36,3 3,9 31,2
    THA 2,0 5,2 92,8 1,2 23,1 0,4 2,4
    IRQ 2,2 4,0 93,8 1,4 35,0 0,7 2,9

    -- CONCACAF --
    columns:
    - team
    - 1st-3rd place in group
    - 4th place in group
    - 5th-6th place in group
    - winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    - total probability to qualify for WC2018

    Hexagonal
    MEX 88,2 6,9 4,9 4,2 92,4
    CRC 73,5 15,2 11,3 7,9 81,4
    USA 67,5 16,9 15,6 9,5 77,0
    PAN 38,9 24,3 36,8 10,6 49,5
    HON 18,6 18,9 62,5 7,9 26,5
    TRI 13,3 17,8 68,9 6,9 20,2

    -- OFC --
    columns:
    - team
    - 1st place in group
    - 2nd-3rd place in group
    - winner 1st place play-off
    - winner 1st place play-off, given a team is in that play-off
    - winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off

    Group A
    NZL 70,8 29,2 61,1 86,3 8,6
    NCL 19,4 80,6 13,1 67,5 1,0
    FIJ 9,8 90,2 5,8 59,2 0,2

    Group B
    TAH 46,5 53,5 10,4 22,4 0,2
    PNG 27,6 72,4 4,5 16,3 0,0
    SOL 25,9 74,1 5,1 19,7 0,0

    -- CONMEBOL --
    columns:
    - team
    - 1st-4th place in group
    - 5th place in group
    - 6th-10th place in group
    - winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
    - total probability to qualify for WC2018

    Group
    ARG 92,5 5,4 2,1 5,4 97,9
    BRA 86,8 9,1 4,1 8,1 94,9
    URU 77,4 13,9 8,7 12,4 89,8
    COL 59,3 18,8 21,9 17,9 77,2
    CHI 52,3 21,6 26,1 20,4 72,7
    ECU 20,5 15,7 63,8 12,4 32,9
    PAR 8,4 10,7 80,9 9,0 17,4
    PER 2,2 4,1 93,7 3,9 6,1
    BOL 0,5 0,4 99,1 0,4 0,9
    VEN 0,1 0,3 99,6 0,1 0,2

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 4, 2016 at 11:17 AM

    thanks Ed, that's very interesting information to review

    ReplyDelete
  4. EdOctober 4, 2016 at 12:14 PM

    You're welcome. Apparently Edgar didn't find the time and I was becoming (very) curious myself, so I thought I'd give it a go.
    Sorry for the lousy formatting.

    I'm planning to update this overview after every matchday.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousOctober 12, 2016 at 1:20 PM

    Why do you think Russia will fall below the FIFA Rankings?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousOctober 13, 2016 at 11:26 AM

      What do you mean by 'think'? These aren't thoughts but calculations

      Delete
  6. AnonymousOctober 13, 2016 at 5:22 PM

    Кыргызстан алга!

    ReplyDelete