2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding simulations

The draw for the 3rd round will take place on 18 January 2017. This has been announced by Tajik FA and Kyrgyz FA. This is all very nice.

Regarding the seeding criteria, I only have a comment on Facebook (by the Tajikistan FA), stating FIFA ranking will be used. Even so, I have to assume it will be the January 2017 FIFA ranking.



The usual 10000 simulations - based on the current list of fixtures. Yes, I've included the KO stages of the AFF Championship.

Teams are sorted on average pot over the 10000 sims.

Pot 1: Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, Kyrgyzstan, Philippines, Korea DPR
Pot 2: India, Palestine, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan
Pot 3: Lebanon, Afghanistan, Maldives, Yemen, Myanmar, Chinese Taipei
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Guam, Cambodia, Kuwait, Bhutan

Pot 4

100.00% - Kuwait
100.00% - Bhutan
99.83% - Cambodia
98.75% - Guam
87.00% - Singapore
68.52% - Malaysia
36.96% - Chinese Taipei
8.94% - Myanmar

Pot 3

100.00% - Yemen
98.17% - Maldives
90.67% - Myanmar
84.68% - Afghanistan
82.24% - Lebanon
63.04% - Chinese Taipei
31.48% - Malaysia
14.54% - Turkmenistan
13.00% - Singapore
9.07% - Tajikistan
8.03% - Vietnam
3.66% - Hong Kong
1.25% - Guam
0.17% - Cambodia

Pot 2

96.34% - Hong Kong
92.88% - Palestine
91.77% - Vietnam
91.63% - India
90.93% - Tajikistan
85.46% - Turkmenistan
17.76% - Lebanon
15.32% - Afghanistan
10.79% - Korea DPR
4.89% - Philippines
1.83% - Maldives
0.39% - Myanmar
0.01% - Kyrgyzstan

Pot 1

100.00% - Jordan
100.00% - Bahrain
100.00% - Oman
99.99% - Kyrgyzstan
95.11% - Philippines
89.21% - Korea DPR
8.37% - India
7.12% - Palestine
0.20% - Vietnam

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Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.