See the previous update (14 October).
Club points updated after the end of the AFC CL and AFC Cup semifinals.
FIFA ranking points computed for November 2016, considering scheduled matches as defeats.
Rank - Association - Total - NT Point - Club Points - 2014 Rank
| 1 | Korea Republic | 91.889 | 21.889 | 70.000 | 1 |
| 2 | United Arab Emirates | 86.386 | 18.407 | 67.978 | 7 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 85.244 | 21.815 | 63.430 | 2 |
| 4 | Iran | 79.615 | 30.000 | 49.615 | 3 |
| 5 | Qatar | 76.942 | 13.259 | 63.682 | 9 |
| 6 | Australia | 72.473 | 23.111 | 49.362 | 6 |
| 7 | China PR | 72.321 | 14.704 | 57.617 | 8 |
| 8 | Japan | 72.051 | 19.741 | 52.310 | 4 |
| 9 | Uzbekistan | 56.316 | 19.926 | 36.390 | 5 |
| 10 | Kuwait | 36.848 | 4.333 | 32.515 | 11 |
| 11 | Iraq | 36.693 | 10.074 | 26.619 | 10 |
| 12 | Syria | 33.914 | 12.519 | 21.396 | 19 |
| 13 | Thailand | 33.393 | 7.111 | 26.282 | 13 |
| 14 | Hong Kong | 30.984 | 6.556 | 24.428 | 20 |
| 15 | Jordan | 30.933 | 11.222 | 19.711 | 12 |
| 16 | Malaysia | 28.286 | 5.037 | 23.249 | 22 |
| 17 | Vietnam | 28.241 | 7.519 | 20.722 | 15 |
| 18 | India | 28.085 | 8.037 | 20.048 | 23 |
| 19 | Bahrain | 27.599 | 9.741 | 17.858 | 16 |
| 20 | Lebanon | 21.627 | 6.296 | 15.331 | 17 |
| 21 | Indonesia | 20.255 | 3.407 | 16.847 | 18 |
| 22 | Oman | 19.138 | 9.704 | 9.434 | 14 |
| 23 | Myanmar | 17.319 | 4.852 | 12.467 | 21 |
| 24 | Tajikistan | 16.845 | 7.074 | 9.771 | 28 |
| 25 | Philippines | 15.550 | 9.148 | 6.402 | 27 |
| 26 | Maldives | 15.377 | 6.111 | 9.266 | 26 |
| 27 | Singapore | 13.259 | 4.667 | 8.592 | 24 |
| 28 | Palestine | 11.464 | 7.926 | 3.538 | 25 |
| 29 | Turkmenistan | 11.451 | 7.407 | 4.043 | 30 |
| 30 | Kyrgyzstan | 9.818 | 9.481 | 0.337 | 32 |
| 31 | Korea DPR | 8.259 | 8.259 | 0.000 | 31 |
| 32 | Afghanistan | 7.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 29 |
| 33 | Yemen | 6.815 | 6.815 | 0.000 | 35 |
| 34 | Laos | 5.762 | 3.741 | 2.022 | 33 |
| 35 | Chinese Taipei | 5.074 | 5.074 | 0.000 | 43 |
| 36 | Cambodia | 4.889 | 4.889 | 0.000 | 42 |
| 37 | Bangladesh | 4.122 | 3.111 | 1.011 | 37 |
| 38 | Bhutan | 3.815 | 3.815 | 0.000 | 46 |
| 39 | Guam | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 34 |
| 40 | Nepal | 2.296 | 2.296 | 0.000 | 38 |
| 41 | Timor-Leste | 2.222 | 2.222 | 0.000 | 39 |
| 42 | Brunei Darussalam | 2.111 | 2.111 | 0.000 | 45 |
| 43 | Pakistan | 1.481 | 1.481 | 0.000 | 39 |
| 44 | Sri Lanka | 1.444 | 1.444 | 0.000 | 36 |
| 45 | Macau | 1.407 | 1.407 | 0.000 | 41 |
| 46 | Mongolia | 0.481 | 0.481 | 0.000 | 44 |
With Al-Ain in the ACL final, UAE are back in 2nd overall, and 1st in the West region.
I've ran 10000 simulations for the remaining club and national team matches. Things have pretty much settled.
Looking at the top 6 in each region, several associations are locked: Korea Republic (1), Uzbekistan (5), Thailand (5), Hong Kong (6).
United Arab Emirates are almost safe in West region's top spot: United Arab Emirates 91.12%, Saudi Arabia 8.79%
Japan now heavy favorites to get 2nd in the East: Japan 77.92%, China PR 19.51%, Australia 2.57%
Philippines chances of a top 24 finish have improved somewhat, but they are still outsiders: Myanmar 96.92%, Tajikistan 90.97%, Philippines 12.11%.
Using the same conditions as those in the 2016 AFC CL (i.e. Kuwait suspended; Iraq, Oman, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria with no licensed clubs), this is how allocations and qualification shape up - assuming Tajikistan's champions get the license. I also assume Tajikistan will be moved to the East - to have 12 MAs in each region. A slight change - I'm using the average rank over 10000 simulations, not the ranking above.
West
GS = Group Stage
PO = Play-off round
PR2 = 2nd preliminary round
PR1 = 1st preliminary round
Association - GS - PO - PR2 - PR1
| United Arab Emirates | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Iran | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Qatar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Uzbekistan | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Play-off round
Al-Wahda (United Arab Emirates) vs. Al-Wehdat (Jordan)
Al-Taawoun (Saudi Arabia) vs. Uzbekistan 3
Esteghlal (Iran) vs. Al-Sadd (Qatar)
El Jaish (Qatar) vs. Uzbekistan 2
East
Association - GS - PO - PR2 - PR1
| Korea Republic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Japan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| China PR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thailand | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Hong Kong | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Malaysia | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Vietnam | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| India | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myanmar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tajikistan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Preliminary round 1
[1] Bengaluru FC (India) vs. Tajikistan 1
[2] Indonesia 1 vs. Yadanarbon (Myanmar)
Preliminary round 2
[3] China PR 4 vs. Match [2] winners
[4] Sukhothai (Thailand) vs. Match [1] winners
[5] Bangkok United (Thailand) vs. Hà Nội T&T (Vietnam)
[6] Southern District (Hong Kong) vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim (Malaysia)
Play-off round
Korea Republic 4 vs. Match [6] winners
Japan 4 vs. Match [5] winners
China PR 3 vs. Match [4] winners
Brisbane Roar (Australia) vs. Match [3] winners
Is Tajiskistan part of the East Zone??? I thought only India and Maldives are part of the East Zone and the rest of South Asian region competes with the West Zone.
ReplyDeleteI think Tajikistan will be ranked among the West Zone as it is part of the Central Asia and this region plays with the West Zone. Am I right?
DeleteI assume AFC will move Tajikistan to the East, because most likely there will be 13 MAs in the West and 11 in the East. Tajikistan is the Eastern most of those in the West.
Delete