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Friday, October 28, 2016

FIFA Ranking: November 2016 probable ranking

Next update: 18 November.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 24 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.



Probable November 2016 rank - Team - Probable November 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Argentina 1667 0 46
2 Brazil 1461 1 51
3 Germany 1433 -1 -32
4 Colombia 1409 1 48
5 Belgium 1356 -1 -26
6 Chile 1331 0 58
7 France 1324 0 53
8 Portugal 1229 0 -2
9 Uruguay 1187 0 12
10 Wales 1181 1 68
11 Spain 1166 -1 -2
12 Switzerland 1129 2 58
13 England 1114 -1 24
14 Croatia 1103 2 76
15 Italy 1083 -2 1
16 Poland 1052 -1 23
17 Costa Rica 1041 1 70
18 Mexico 1001 -1 0
19 Netherlands 922 1 21
20 Ecuador 890 -1 -42
21 Iceland 889 0 -9
22 Iran 884 5 47
23 Turkey 851 2 8
24 Peru 843 -1 -22
25 USA 842 -1 -10
26 Hungary 840 -4 -51
27 Slovakia 837 -1 -3
28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 825 0 18
29 Austria 808 1 16
30 Ukraine 804 -1 1
31 Republic of Ireland 793 2 17
32 Senegal 791 0 8
33 Northern Ireland 767 3 28
34 Paraguay 745 3 7
35 Romania 736 -1 -10
36 Côte d'Ivoire 726 -5 -64
37 Egypt 719 9 93
38 Tunisia 715 0 -6
39 Greece 711 3 55
40 Korea Republic 699 4 59
41 Czech Republic 696 -1 33
42 Albania 693 5 74
43 Algeria 692 -8 -49
44 Australia 659 -4 -4
45 Sweden 646 -6 -69
46 Japan 644 5 43
47 Denmark 627 3 21
48 Nigeria 616 12 54
49 Ghana 611 -4 -17
50 Congo DR 606 -1 -3
51 Serbia 604 -8 -46
52 Mali 599 6 31
53 Slovenia 595 -1 0
54 Saudi Arabia 589 0 -4
55 Morocco 587 5 25
56 Cape Verde Islands 584 15 76
57 Venezuela 581 11 65
58 Montenegro 576 -2 6
59 Russia 573 -6 -21
60 Cameroon 569 -1 2
61 Uzbekistan 558 -13 -59
62 United Arab Emirates 543 8 30
63 Panama 530 0 -21
64 Benin 526 2 1
64 South Africa 526 -2 -33
66 Guinea 524 -2 -15
66 Scotland 524 -9 -45
68 Guinea-Bissau 515 1 0
69 Burkina Faso 513 -2 -6
70 Uganda 506 2 6
71 Haiti 505 16 100
72 Congo 504 -17 -71
73 Bulgaria 492 16 97
74 Honduras 483 12 72
75 Curaçao 467 2 15
75 Libya 467 1 6
77 Jamaica 461 -2 -3
78 Trinidad and Tobago 454 -13 -79
79 Guatemala 443 4 9
79 St. Kitts and Nevis 443 -6 -29
81 Bolivia 436 -1 -8
82 Antigua and Barbuda 433 0 -2
83 Belarus 423 -6 -29
83 China PR 423 1 4
85 Faroe Islands 422 -11 -47
85 Norway 422 -4 -16
87 Israel 405 -8 -45
88 Kenya 397 -3 -19
89 Qatar 388 2 3
90 Azerbaijan 386 -2 -18
91 Togo 385 2 10
92 Zambia 374 2 0
93 Finland 368 8 31
94 Sierra Leone 357 3 5
95 Kazakhstan 354 -5 -32
96 Namibia 347 22 47
97 Swaziland 343 9 13
98 Syria 338 -2 -19
99 Rwanda 336 8 11
100 New Zealand 334 16 28
101 Jordan 332 3 0
102 Liberia 327 2 -5
102 Malawi 327 -2 -11
104 Mauritania 326 11 18
105 Central African Republic 325 2 0
105 Mozambique 325 -10 -34
107 Lithuania 324 -9 -23
108 Zimbabwe 323 2 0
109 Georgia 312 13 36
110 Armenia 310 15 40
111 Latvia 304 5 -2
112 Nicaragua 303 -5 -22
113 Philippines 302 11 31
114 Botswana 296 -13 -41
115 Bahrain 295 8 23
116 Equatorial Guinea 293 -24 -87
117 Ethiopia 291 9 24
118 Cyprus 290 21 62
119 Canada 282 -9 -41
119 Gabon 282 -9 -41
121 Korea DPR 274 5 7
122 Iraq 272 -9 -42
123 Estonia 266 -4 -33
123 Oman 266 6 6
125 Cuba 264 17 38
126 Dominican Republic 263 -5 -18
127 Kyrgyzstan 256 -28 -87
128 Niger 246 0 -16
129 Vietnam 235 7 4
130 Luxembourg 230 0 -22
131 Burundi 222 7 -7
132 Guyana 221 -1 -26
133 Madagascar 220 0 -23
134 India 217 3 -13
135 El Salvador 216 0 -16
136 Tajikistan 215 4 -12
137 Palestine 214 -17 -71
138 Turkmenistan 210 -24 -99
139 Hong Kong 205 1 -22
139 Sudan 205 9 1
139 Tahiti 205 33 85
142 Thailand 204 4 -3
143 Lesotho 202 7 1
144 Comoros 201 -1 -22
145 Angola 199 -11 -37
146 Mauritius 194 5 0
146 Puerto Rico 194 5 0
148 Lebanon 191 1 -11
149 Afghanistan 189 -4 -19
150 Yemen 184 -18 -60
151 Suriname 183 -4 -22
152 Chad 179 -49 -155
153 São Tomé e Príncipe 177 0 0
154 Maldives 165 4 4
155 Barbados 163 2 0
156 Malaysia 151 8 16
157 Grenada 150 -3 -22
158 Aruba 147 2 0
159 Tanzania 146 -15 -66
160 Belize 141 3 0
160 Chinese Taipei 141 1 -4
162 Papua New Guinea 140 -3 -12
163 FYR Macedonia 138 -8 -29
164 Cambodia 135 3 12
164 Kosovo 135 0 0
166 Myanmar 131 -10 -34
167 Laos 130 8 23
168 Singapore 126 3 4
169 South Sudan 123 -2 0
170 Kuwait 117 -3 -6
171 Moldova 114 2 -5
172 Dominica 110 2 0
173 Gambia 106 3 0
173 Vanuatu 106 4 3
175 Bhutan 103 4 10
175 New Caledonia 103 -9 -25
177 Fiji 102 2 9
177 Nepal 102 9 28
177 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 102 -15 -40
180 Indonesia 100 -1 7
181 St. Lucia 95 -14 -28
182 Guam 90 0 4
183 Malta 85 -5 -12
184 Bangladesh 84 4 11
185 Seychelles 79 -1 0
186 Bermuda 77 -1 0
187 Liechtenstein 75 -4 -6
188 Sri Lanka 68 6 20
189 Brunei Darussalam 66 3 9
190 American Samoa 64 -1 0
190 Cook Islands 64 -1 0
190 Samoa 64 -1 0
193 Timor-Leste 63 -7 -11
194 Solomon Islands 55 -1 -1
195 Macau 45 1 5
196 US Virgin Islands 44 -1 0
197 Pakistan 40 0 1
198 Mongolia 30 4 17
198 Montserrat 30 0 0
200 Cayman Islands 21 -1 0
201 Turks and Caicos Islands 20 -1 0
202 San Marino 17 -1 0
203 Andorra 12 0 1
204 British Virgin Islands 11 -1 0
205 Anguilla 0 0 0
205 Bahamas 0 0 0
205 Djibouti 0 0 0
205 Eritrea 0 0 0
205 Gibraltar 0 0 0
205 Somalia 0 0 0
205 Tonga 0 0 0

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16 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 28, 2016 at 12:53 PM

    Excuse me, I just want to ask, why the team did not play a few months, the point can be reduced?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarOctober 28, 2016 at 12:58 PM

      As games drop from a time frame to another, the averages change, and thus the total points for the them also change. It could be positive or negative.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousOctober 28, 2016 at 1:33 PM

      thanks for info Ed

      Delete
  2. AnonymousOctober 30, 2016 at 1:19 AM

    Italy wins its WC qualifying match, draws against #2 Germany in a friendly, and ... loses two spots. Maybe the azzurri need to stop playing in order to climb the rankings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 30, 2016 at 9:45 AM

      The qualifying is against Liechtenstein: pointswise that's like winning a friendly against a mediocre team. And friendlies never help your ranking when you are a top-team. If you really want to climb the ranking try doing a 'Wales': stop playing friendlies for a year.

      Delete
  3. AnonymousNovember 1, 2016 at 12:50 AM

    Ed let's assume that there are 5 south American teams in the top 7 and therefore (we assume) seeded for the world cup.

    Any thoughts on what fifa would do?

    I don't think they'll want that in a European world cup.

    Issue is even if they go back to a last world cup plus rankings plan I still think you get 4 south American teams seeded.

    I'd be interested in your usual pragmatic thoughts on the matter.

    ReplyDelete
  4. EdNovember 1, 2016 at 3:35 PM

    Why shouldn't FIFA want 4 or 5 seeded South American teams in a 'European' world cup? It's the fair result of their own ranking(methods).
    If they start to tinker with the seeding mechanism, it surely would be a sign they don't trust their own ranking. On the other hand, I don't trust FIFA anymore when it comes to establishing seeding pots. So I won't be surprised when they do start to tinker with it and still maintain their sacred principle that 'the FIFA-ranking is used for seeding' of FIFA-tournaments.

    In 2014
    pot 1: 4 UEFA, 4 CONMEBOL;
    pot 2: 5 CAF, 2 CONMEBOL, 1 UEFA;
    pot 3: 4 CONCACAF, 4 AFC;
    pot 4: 8 UEFA - with a draw amongst all 9 remaining UEFA-teams to transfer 1 UEFA team (Italy) to pot 2

    In 2010
    pot 1: 5 UEFA, 2 CONMEBOL, 1 CAF;
    pot 2: 5 CAF, 3 CONMEBOL;
    pot 3: 3 CONCACAF, 4 AFC, 1 OFC;
    pot 4: 8 UEFA

    In 2006
    pot 1: 5 UEFA, 2 CONMEBOL, 1 CONCACAF;
    pot 2: 5 CAF, 2 CONMEBOL, 1 OFC;
    pot 3: 3 CONCACAF, 4 AFC, 1 UEFA;
    pot 4: 8 UEFA - with the lowest ranked UEFA-team (Serbia Montenegro) transferred to pot 3

    In 2002
    pot 1: 4 UEFA, 2 CONMEBOL, 2 AFC;
    pot 2: 5 CAF, 3 CONCACAF;
    pot 3: 3 CONMEBOL, 2 AFC, 3 UEFA;
    pot 4: 8 UEFA - with the 3 lowest ranked UEFA-team transferred to pot 3 and drawn into groups with 1 UEFA team

    If FIFA wants to maintain the geographical pots, beside pot 1, the logical thing to do would be to put in pot 2 for Russia: 5 CAF, 1 or 0 CONMEBOL and 2 or 3 UEFA teams, depending on 4 or 5 seeded CONMEBOL-teams. The 'lucky' UEFA teams are the lowest ranked ones.
    A step towards a seeding of all participating teams based on the FIFA ranking, as done in a few minor FIFA-tournaments already, could further solve the eventual problem of creating geographical pots of unequal strength.

    Fact: we have to go all the way back to 1986 in Mexico to find the first team, not seeded in pot 1, that became World Champion (Argentina). So a spot in pot 1 for Russia will be undeniably desirable. But it is not a guarantee of course. The games gotta be played by the seeded South Americans, also against strong European opponents. Last time in Brazil that proved to be difficult, especially at the business-end of the tournament.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdNovember 2, 2016 at 2:23 PM

      Three small addendums regarding the draw of the UEFA-teams in each WC:
      - in 2002 the 8 seeds were drawn in the 8 groups, then 8 out of 11 UEFA teams in pot 4 were drawn in the 8 groups and after that the 3 remaining UEFA teams were drawn in groups with only 1 UEFA team.
      - in 2006 Serbia-Montenegro were last ranked among the UEFA teams in the November 2005 FIFA-ranking, though for the seeding in pot 1 quite another ranking was used, based on performances in the past 2 WC's combined with 3 ranking-snapshots. In that ranking Ukraine was the worst UEFA-team.
      - in 2010 no special draw-regulations regarding the UEFA-teams were necessary.
      - in 2014 Italy was then drawn into a group with a CONMEBOL top seed (Uruguay).
      All these regulations were to assure that a maximum of two UEFA teams in each group resulted.

      Delete
  5. AnonymousNovember 2, 2016 at 11:08 AM

    Act surprised when the they decide that rankings are used but you can't qualify via a play-off and be seeded.

    :)

    That kills off the chance of 5 Sth American seeds.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousNovember 3, 2016 at 11:15 AM

      That's a very simple way of rigging the seeding, hopefully it doesn't happen though.

      Delete
  6. AnonymousNovember 16, 2016 at 11:48 PM

    Forty percent of games played. Time to start looking at probable UEFA play-off seeding groups:

    Pot A: Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands, Bosnia
    Pot B: Ukraine, Czech Republic, Serbia, Slovenia
    Out: Denmark

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. tarzoNovember 17, 2016 at 3:02 AM

      Pot 1:Netherlands,Portugal,İtaly,Turkey
      Pot 2:Bosnia,Slovenia,Serbia,Northern İreland

      Delete
  7. EdNovember 17, 2016 at 10:12 PM

    Here are (in a few parts) the probabilities for each team in each confederation in world cup 2018 qualifying after the November matchdays from last week. The scored goals for each team in a scheduled match are calculated using ClubElo's expected goals formula, which uses the home team win expectancy according to elo.
    All probabilities [%] after 1000 simulations.

    -- UEFA --
    columns:
    1: group
    2: 2nd place in group is seeded in play-offs (based on Oct 2017 ranking)
    3: 2nd place in group is unseeded in play-offs (based on Oct 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group is worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2

    A - 59,2 - 34,6 - 6,2
    B - 90,7 - 9,1 - 0,2
    C - 15,2 - 56,1 - 28,7
    D - 39,0 - 47,4 - 13,6
    E - 14,8 - 62,5 - 22,7
    F - 16,6 - 68,4 - 15,0
    G - 89,8 - 9,8 - 0,4
    H - 41,2 - 55,9 - 2,9
    I - 33,5 - 56,2 - 10,3

    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group
    3: 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs (based on Oct 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs (based on Oct 2017 ranking)
    5: 2nd place in group and worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2
    6: 3rd-6th place in group
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+0.7*col3+0.3*col4)

    Group A
    FRA - 82,2 - 15,2 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 2,6 - 92,8
    NED - 13,1 - 42,9 - 9,6 - 3,4 - 31,0 - 46,0
    SWE - 4,2 - 1,1 - 20,2 - 1,6 - 72,9 - 11,0
    BUL - 0,5 - 0,0 - 4,2 - 1,1 - 94,2 - 1,8
    BLR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,6 - 0,1 - 99,3 - 0,2
    LUX - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    SUI - 61,5 - 35,5 - 0,7 - 0,0 - 2,3 - 86,6
    POR - 36,8 - 54,5 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 8,7 - 75,0
    HUN - 1,7 - 0,7 - 8,4 - 0,2 - 89,0 - 4,7
    LVA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    FRO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    AND - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group C
    GER - 98,4 - 1,5 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 99,5
    NIR - 1,3 - 13,5 - 27,0 - 10,0 - 48,2 - 18,9
    CZE - 0,2 - 0,2 - 22,8 - 10,2 - 66,6 - 7,2
    NOR - 0,1 - 0,0 - 2,9 - 5,2 - 91,8 - 1,0
    AZE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 3,4 - 3,3 - 93,3 - 1,0
    SMR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group D
    IRL - 63,0 - 22,6 - 0,6 - 1,8 - 12,0 - 79,0
    SRB - 23,8 - 0,0 - 35,6 - 6,6 - 34,0 - 34,5
    WAL - 10,5 - 16,0 - 1,1 - 3,0 - 69,4 - 22,0
    AUT - 2,7 - 0,4 - 9,8 - 2,2 - 84,9 - 5,9
    GEO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,3 - 0,0 - 99,7 - 0,1
    MDA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group E
    POL - 82,7 - 12,1 - 0,0 - 0,5 - 4,7 - 91,2
    DEN - 6,6 - 1,6 - 23,3 - 11,1 - 57,4 - 14,7
    MNE - 5,8 - 0,0 - 20,9 - 5,1 - 68,2 - 12,1
    ROU - 4,8 - 1,1 - 17,1 - 4,6 - 72,4 - 10,7
    ARM - 0,1 - 0,0 - 1,1 - 1,2 - 97,6 - 0,4
    KAZ - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 0,2 - 99,7 - 0,0

    Group F
    ENG - 89,0 - 8,6 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 2,3 - 95,0
    SVK - 6,3 - 7,9 - 30,7 - 6,0 - 49,1 - 21,0
    SVN - 4,0 - 0,0 - 29,0 - 4,8 - 62,2 - 12,7
    SCO - 0,7 - 0,1 - 8,3 - 3,1 - 87,8 - 3,3
    LTU - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,4 - 1,0 - 98,6 - 0,1
    MLT - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group G
    ESP - 58,1 - 37,1 - 0,2 - 0,2 - 4,4 - 84,1
    ITA - 40,1 - 52,7 - 3,9 - 0,0 - 3,3 - 78,2
    ISR - 1,5 - 0,0 - 5,4 - 0,2 - 92,9 - 3,1
    ALB - 0,3 - 0,0 - 0,3 - 0,0 - 99,4 - 0,4
    MKD - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    LIE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group H
    BEL - 86,7 - 10,1 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 3,2 - 93,8
    BIH - 7,3 - 31,0 - 22,1 - 1,0 - 38,6 - 35,6
    GRE - 6,0 - 0,1 - 33,3 - 1,5 - 59,1 - 16,1
    EST - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,3 - 0,2 - 99,5 - 0,1
    CYP - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,2 - 0,2 - 99,6 - 0,1
    GIB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0

    Group I
    CRO - 62,7 - 19,5 - 0,3 - 1,2 - 16,3 - 76,4
    ISL - 16,3 - 6,9 - 23,5 - 2,6 - 50,7 - 28,2
    UKR - 15,3 - 5,0 - 19,2 - 3,3 - 57,2 - 24,6
    TUR - 5,7 - 2,1 - 13,0 - 3,2 - 76,0 - 11,1
    FIN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 0,0 - 99,9 - 0,0
    KOS - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 0,0 - 99,9 - 0,0

    ReplyDelete
  8. EdNovember 17, 2016 at 10:13 PM

    -- CAF --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    3: 2nd-4th place in group

    Group A
    COD - 49,9 - 50,1
    TUN - 48,2 - 51,8
    GUI - 1,3 - 98,7
    LBY - 0,6 - 99,4

    Group B
    NGA - 73,5 - 26,5
    CMR - 16,2 - 83,8
    ALG - 8,7 - 91,3
    ZAM - 1,6 - 98,4

    Group C
    CIV - 74,6 - 25,4
    MAR - 13,7 - 86,3
    GAB - 6,2 - 93,8
    MLI - 5,5 - 94,5

    Group D
    SEN - 39,1 - 60,9
    RSA - 37,0 - 63,0
    BFA - 22,3 - 77,7
    CPV - 1,6 - 98,4

    Group E
    EGY - 79,3 - 20,7
    UGA - 14,0 - 86,0
    GHA - 6,0 - 94,0
    CGO - 0,7 - 99,3

    -- AFC --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-2nd place in group
    3: 3rd place in group
    4: 4th-6th place in group
    5: winner 5th place play-off
    6: winner 5th place play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    8: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col7/col5)
    9: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col7)

    Group A
    IRN - 86,5 - 11,5 - 2,0 - 7,6 - 66,1 - 4,5 - 59,2 - 91,0
    KOR - 73,6 - 21,7 - 4,7 - 13,5 - 62,2 - 8,5 - 63,0 - 82,1
    UZB - 33,3 - 46,7 - 20,0 - 27,3 - 58,5 - 15,5 - 56,8 - 48,8
    SYR - 3,7 - 10,4 - 85,9 - 4,8 - 46,2 - 2,5 - 52,1 - 6,2
    QAT - 2,6 - 7,9 - 89,5 - 4,5 - 57,0 - 2,1 - 46,7 - 4,7
    CHN - 0,3 - 1,8 - 97,9 - 0,8 - 44,4 - 0,5 - 62,5 - 0,8

    Group B
    JPN - 71,9 - 17,9 - 10,2 - 9,8 - 54,7 - 6,5 - 66,3 - 78,4
    AUS - 63,0 - 21,6 - 15,4 - 10,3 - 47,7 - 6,4 - 62,1 - 69,4
    KSA - 39,3 - 29,5 - 31,2 - 10,0 - 33,9 - 3,8 - 38,0 - 43,1
    UAE - 25,1 - 28,9 - 46,0 - 10,8 - 37,4 - 6,0 - 55,6 - 31,1
    IRQ - 0,7 - 2,0 - 97,3 - 0,5 - 25,0 - 0,2 - 40,0 - 0,9
    THA - 0,0 - 0,1 - 99,9 - 0,1 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CONCACAF --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-3rd place in group
    3: 4th place in group
    4: 5th-6th place in group
    5: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)

    Hexagonal
    MEX - 95,6 - 3,6 - 0,8 - 2,3 - 63,9 - 97,9
    CRC - 93,8 - 4,6 - 1,6 - 2,5 - 54,3 - 96,3
    PAN - 56,5 - 29,4 - 14,1 - 12,8 - 43,5 - 69,3
    USA - 38,7 - 32,7 - 28,6 - 14,6 - 44,6 - 53,3
    HON - 12,5 - 20,9 - 66,6 - 8,1 - 38,8 - 20,6
    TRI - 2,9 - 8,8 - 88,3 - 3,2 - 36,4 - 6,1

    -- OFC --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group
    3: 2nd-3rd place in group
    4: winner 1st place play-off
    5: winner 1st place play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col4/col2)
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    7: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col6/col4)

    Group A
    NZL - 88,0 - 12,0 - 79,4 - 90,2 - 9,6 - 12,1
    FIJ - 9,9 - 90,1 - 6,8 - 68,7 - 0,3 - 4,4
    NCL - 2,1 - 97,9 - 1,5 - 71,4 - 0,1 - 6,7

    Group B
    TAH - 37,6 - 62,4 - 6,0 - 16,0 - 0,3 - 5,0
    PNG - 37,8 - 62,2 - 3,4 - 9,0 - 0,2 - 5,9
    SOL - 24,6 - 75,4 - 2,9 - 11,8 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- CONMEBOL --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-4th place in group
    3: 5th place in group
    4: 6th-10th place in group
    5: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)

    Group
    BRA - 99,6 - 0,3 - 0,1 - 0,2 - 66,7 - 99,8
    URU - 88,3 - 7,7 - 4,0 - 7,0 - 90,9 - 95,3
    ARG - 72,2 - 15,3 - 12,5 - 14,8 - 96,7 - 87,0
    CHI - 68,8 - 19,6 - 11,6 - 17,5 - 89,3 - 86,3
    COL - 37,5 - 28,4 - 34,1 - 25,7 - 90,5 - 63,2
    ECU - 31,0 - 21,2 - 47,8 - 18,0 - 84,9 - 49,0
    PER - 2,3 - 5,4 - 92,3 - 4,7 - 87,0 - 7,0
    PAR - 0,3 - 2,1 - 97,6 - 1,6 - 76,2 - 1,9
    BOL - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    VEN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- winner intercontinental play-offs --
    CONCACAF 43,5 - AFC 56,5
    CONMEBOL 89,5 - OFC 10,5

    ReplyDelete
  9. EdNovember 17, 2016 at 10:13 PM

    And the static elo-prediction:

    -- UEFA --
    After MD4 (of 10) of the European qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 9 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: France
    B: Portugal
    C: Germany
    D: Republic of Ireland
    E: Poland
    F: England
    G: Spain
    H: Belgium
    I: Croatia

    and as 8 best group numbers 2 (ordered by October 2017 ranking)
    B: Switzerland
    G: Italy
    A: Netherlands
    F: Slovakia
    H: Bosnia-Herzegovina
    I: Ukraine
    C: Northern Ireland
    D: Serbia
    Denmark from group E is worst group number 2.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD3:
    Netherlands and Slovakia are seeded numbers 2
    Ukraine and Serbia (instead of Iceland and Wales) are unseeded numbers 2

    -- CAF --
    After MD2 (of 6) of the third round of African qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 5 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: Tunisia
    B: Nigeria
    C: Cote d'Ivoire
    D: Senegal
    E: Egypt

    No changes compared to the prediction after MD1.

    -- AFC --
    After MD5 (of 10) of the third round of Asian qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    A: Iran and Korea Republic to qualify
    B: Japan and Australia to qualify
    Uzbekistan from group A and United Arab Emirates from group B qualify for the 5th-place play-off. Uzbekistan qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against USA.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD4:
    United Arab Emirates instead of Saudi Arabia as number 3 in group B

    -- CONCACAF --
    After MD2 (of 10) of the hexagonal in CONCACAF qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 3 countries to qualify:
    Mexico, Costa Rica and Panama.
    USA at fourth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Uzbekistan.

    Changes compared to the initial prediction:
    Panama and USA trade places and are now number 3 and 4 respectively in the group

    -- CONMEBOL --
    After MD12 (of 18) of the South American qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Chile to qualify.
    Colombia at fifth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against New Zealand.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD10:
    Chile climbs to 4th place and Colombia drops to 5th place

    -- OFC --
    After MD2 (of 6) of the third round of Oceania qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 2 countries to qualify for the 1st-place play-off:
    A: New Zealand
    B: Tahiti
    New Zealand qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Colombia.

    No changes compared to the initial prediction.

    -- intercontinental play-offs --
    USA qualifies for Russia WC 2018.
    Colombia qualifies for Russia WC 2018.

    Changes compared to the previous prediction:
    USA instead of Uzbekistan and Colombia instead of Chile.

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