2018 World Cup simulations (18 November 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 15 November 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.


Previous simulations (14 October 2016).

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

Congo DR and South Africa replace Tunisia and Senegal. The race is very close in their groups.

AFC: Iran, Korea Republic, Japan, Australia
CAF: Egypt, Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DR, South Africa
CONCACAF: Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, USA
CONMEBOL: Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, Argentina, Colombia
UEFA: Germany, England, France, Belgium, Spain, Poland, Switzerland, Italy, Croatia, Republic of Ireland, Portugal, Netherlands, Iceland


99.93% - Brazil
99.78% - Germany
98.93% - Mexico
97.37% - Costa Rica
96.6% - England
96.29% - France
95.7% - Uruguay
92.39% - Iran
92.34% - Belgium
89.36% - Spain
88.47% - Chile
88.38% - Argentina
87.99% - Poland
83.62% - Switzerland
82.3% - Italy
81.1% - Egypt
80.99% - Croatia
80.74% - Republic of Ireland
79.91% - Korea Republic
79.23% - Portugal
78.28% - Japan
77.12% - Nigeria
76.39% - Côte d'Ivoire
75.55% - Panama
74.5% - Australia
59.8% - Colombia
59.73% - USA
50.19% - Congo DR
49.86% - Netherlands
49.23% - Ecuador
48.53% - Tunisia
45.32% - Uzbekistan
41.13% - South Africa
40.49% - Senegal
36.05% - Saudi Arabia
31.75% - Iceland
31.68% - Serbia
31.5% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
28.41% - United Arab Emirates
22.63% - Ukraine
18.8% - Turkey
17.7% - Slovakia
17.61% - Sweden
17.48% - Honduras
17.43% - Burkina Faso
16.14% - Wales
14.04% - Cameroon
13.95% - Morocco
13.42% - Denmark
13.33% - Uganda
11.74% - Montenegro
11.48% - Greece
9.81% - Slovenia
9.6% - Romania
8.66% - New Zealand
8.29% - Northern Ireland
8.11% - Czech Republic
7.86% - Peru
7.12% - Algeria
6.33% - Scotland
6.18% - Trinidad and Tobago
5.76% - Austria
5.16% - Mali
5.12% - Ghana
4.97% - Qatar
4.5% - Gabon
3.99% - Syria
3.67% - Hungary
2.34% - Israel
1.72% - Zambia
1.51% - Paraguay
1.18% - Bulgaria
0.95% - Cape Verde Islands
0.92% - Guinea
0.63% - Norway
0.57% - Iraq
0.45% - Congo
0.37% - China PR
0.36% - Libya
0.21% - Fiji
0.16% - Armenia
0.15% - Belarus
0.13% - Lithuania
0.11% - Albania
0.1% - Tahiti
0.07% - Azerbaijan
0.06% - New Caledonia
0.05% - Georgia
0.05% - Papua New Guinea
0.04% - Finland
0.04% - Solomon Islands
0.02% - Kazakhstan

Top 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:

Chile	88.47	54.08	34.39
Republic of Ireland	80.74	54.13	26.61
Poland	87.99	61.95	26.04
Nigeria	77.12	51.94	25.18
Panama	75.55	51.52	24.03
Congo DR	50.19	34.51	15.68
Egypt	81.1	66.43	14.67
Côte d'Ivoire	76.39	63.07	13.32
South Africa	41.13	27.98	13.15
Burkina Faso	17.43	5.01	12.42

Bottom 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran last time:

Paraguay	1.51	22.81	-21.3
Colombia	59.8	80.9	-21.1
Senegal	40.49	60.28	-19.79
Romania	9.6	29.35	-19.75
USA	59.73	78.5	-18.77
Cameroon	14.04	29.53	-15.49
Austria	5.76	20.24	-14.48
Trinidad and Tobago	6.18	20.26	-14.08
Montenegro	11.74	24.86	-13.12
Guinea	0.92	13.81	-12.89

 
Top 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran before the qualifiers:

Nigeria	77.12	29.81	47.31
Uruguay	95.7	50.78	44.92
Republic of Ireland	80.74	38.23	42.51
Egypt	81.1	40.75	40.35
Switzerland	83.62	43.88	39.74
Poland	87.99	58.14	29.85
Iran	92.39	63.6	28.79
Croatia	80.99	54.9	26.09
Panama	75.55	50.46	25.09

Bottom 10 based on difference between these sims and those ran before the qualifiers:

Ghana	5.12	36.46	-31.34
Algeria	7.12	34.99	-27.87
Guinea	0.92	27.2	-26.28
Peru	7.86	33.35	-25.49
Wales	16.14	41.54	-25.4
Turkey	18.8	42.87	-24.07
Colombia	59.8	82.89	-23.09
Denmark	13.42	35.83	-22.41
Romania	9.6	29.32	-19.72
USA	59.73	79.41	-19.68

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.