More info in this post.
The usual 10000 simulations - based on the current list of fixtures. Teams are sorted on average pot over the 10000 sims.
Pot 1: Jordan, Oman, Bahrain, Kyrgyzstan, Korea DPR, Philippines
Pot 2: India, Palestine, Tajikistan, Hong Kong, Turkmenistan, Vietnam
Pot 3: Maldives, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Chinese Taipei, Myanmar
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, Kuwait, Bhutan, Guam
Pots are pretty much settled - only the last two pot 3 spots still to fight for, with Chinese Taipei and Myanmar heavy favorites over Malaysia and Singapore.
Pot 4
100.00% - Kuwait
100.00% - Bhutan
100.00% - Guam
99.99% - Cambodia
89.55% - Singapore
70.03% - Malaysia
27.49% - Myanmar
12.94% - Chinese Taipei
Pot 3
100.00% - Lebanon
100.00% - Yemen
100.00% - Afghanistan
99.85% - Maldives
87.06% - Chinese Taipei
72.47% - Myanmar
29.97% - Malaysia
10.44% - Singapore
0.16% - Vietnam
0.04% - Turkmenistan
0.01% - Cambodia
Pot 2
100.00% - Palestine
100.00% - Tajikistan
100.00% - Hong Kong
99.98% - India
99.96% - Turkmenistan
99.84% - Vietnam
0.15% - Maldives
0.04% - Myanmar
0.02% - Philippines
0.01% - Singapore
Pot 1
100.00% - Jordan
100.00% - Oman
100.00% - Bahrain
100.00% - Kyrgyzstan
100.00% - Korea DPR
99.98% - Philippines
0.02% - India
if the match VIE_SYR still included, could it change something? VN could be in pot 2?
ReplyDeleteNo, only 15 extra points, not enough to overtake Korea DPR (last team in Pot 1 on average points).
DeleteWhy FIFA didn't include the match Vietnam win Syria 2-0 in May 2016 ?
ReplyDeletethere would be at most 2 matches played on FIFA day (30 May - 7 June), so if the match had played in 29 May, it would have been counted.
DeleteWhat is 10000 simulations ??
ReplyDeleteA result is generated for each match based on Elo ratings of the teams involved. Repeat 10000 times.
DeleteCould you give me 1 example, please !!!! Ex: Cambodia
DeleteI will try to explain this as simple as possible.
ReplyDeleteThe number of goals each team scores in a match can be drawn out of a probability distribution. This distribution is based on the relative strength of both participants in the match, expressed in the elo home-team win expectancy. If you want to know more about this, see the ClubElo website.
For each scheduled match you can draw a number out of the probability distribution for the number of goals scored in the match by the home-team and you can draw a number out of the probability distribution for the number of goals scored in the match by the away-team. This way you get a match-result for the match. And that for each scheduled match. One set of drawn results for all scheduled matches is called one simulation.
Based on a set of drawn match-results a January 2017 ranking can be calculated which leads to certain teams ending in pot 1, certain teams ending in pot 2 etc.
Each simulation of match-results of all scheduled matches can result in a different January 2017 ranking and thus in a different distribution of teams over the 4 pots.
Finally, over all 10.000 simulation-results you can simply count for each team how many times they end in pot 1, how many times they end in pot 2 etc. And these are the probabilities Edgar presents in his post.
It's was completely understand ,, Thank so much for you explanation.
ReplyDeleteAnd could it have another last update ?
ReplyDeleteor maybe AFC seedings as Play off Round ? Depend on Round 2 ranking
ReplyDelete