AFC MA Ranking update (18 November 2016)

We're almost there. 6 matches left - two in the AFC Champions League and the first four games of the AFF Championship.

AFC have published the entry manual for ACL and ACC. Going by the letter of the regulations, India and Maldives would be moved to the West, however I stick by my original approach and I expect Tajikistan to be moved to the East.



Despite being 6th in the East, Hong Kong lost their direct groups stage spot because of paragraph 11.12 on page 21 of the entry manual.

If an eligible club refuses to enter an AFC Competition, despite being licensed and meeting the sporting criteria, the slot allocated to its MA shall be annulled, regardless of whether it is a direct slot or playoff slot.

As you perhaps know, vacant group stage slots are awarded not to the next best ranked MA, but to the highest MA that hasn't been allocated 3 direct group stage slots.

There have been two very costly draws recently.

First China PR vs. Qatar. Assuming Iraqi clubs don't get the AFC license, the third ranked MA in the West zone would get that direct slot. With a win in China, Qatar would have been 3rd, with El Jaish going to the group stage. As Qatar failed to get the 3 points, the direct slot will be allocated to Iran's Persepolis.

Same goes for Thailand vs. Australia. Hong Kong's direct slot will be going to China's Shanghai SIPG, but it would have been Brisbane Roar's had the Socceroos prevailed in Bangkok.

I don't understand the articles claiming AFF Championship games will count towards the FIFA ranking for the first time. This is incorrect. These games have always been included in the calculation (well, at least since I've started computing the ranking).

See the previous update.

Club points updated after the end of the AFC CL and AFC Cup semifinals.

FIFA ranking points computed for November 2016, considering scheduled matches as defeats.

FIFA ranking points are final for all teams except Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar and Philippines.

Rank - Association - Total - NT Point - Club Points - 2014  Rank

1	Korea Republic	96.311	26.311	70.000	1
2	United Arab Emirates	88.192	20.213	67.978	7
3	Saudi Arabia	85.600	22.171	63.430	2
4	Iran	79.615	30.000	49.615	3
5	Qatar	79.078	15.395	63.682	9
6	Japan	76.551	24.241	52.310	4
7	China PR	73.540	15.922	57.617	8
8	Australia	73.302	23.940	49.362	6
9	Uzbekistan	57.394	21.004	36.390	5
10	Iraq	37.626	10.502	27.124	10
11	Kuwait	36.919	4.404	32.515	11
12	Syria	35.060	13.664	21.396	19
13	Thailand	34.676	8.394	26.282	13
14	Hong Kong	32.145	7.716	24.428	20
15	Jordan	31.493	11.782	19.711	12
16	Vietnam	28.965	8.243	20.722	15
17	Malaysia	28.782	5.533	23.249	22
18	India	28.216	8.168	20.048	23
19	Bahrain	27.607	9.749	17.858	16
20	Lebanon	22.295	6.964	15.331	17
21	Indonesia	20.611	3.764	16.847	18
22	Oman	19.447	10.013	9.434	14
23	Tajikistan	18.466	8.695	9.771	28
24	Myanmar	17.398	4.931	12.467	21
25	Philippines	17.054	10.652	6.402	27
26	Maldives	15.477	6.211	9.266	26
27	Singapore	13.561	4.969	8.592	24
28	Palestine	11.894	8.356	3.538	25
29	Turkmenistan	11.572	7.528	4.043	30
30	Korea DPR	10.314	10.314	0.000	31
31	Kyrgyzstan	10.312	9.975	0.337	32
32	Afghanistan	7.114	7.114	0.000	29
33	Yemen	6.926	6.926	0.000	35
34	Laos	6.915	4.893	2.022	33
35	Chinese Taipei	5.609	5.609	0.000	43
36	Cambodia	4.856	4.856	0.000	42
37	Bangladesh	4.173	3.162	1.011	37
38	Bhutan	3.877	3.877	0.000	46
39	Nepal	3.388	3.388	0.000	38
40	Macau	3.087	3.087	0.000	41
41	Guam	3.049	3.049	0.000	34
42	Brunei Darussalam	2.785	2.785	0.000	45
43	Timor-Leste	2.409	2.409	0.000	39
44	Sri Lanka	1.656	1.656	0.000	36
45	Pakistan	1.506	1.506	0.000	39
46	Mongolia	1.430	1.430	0.000	44

Philippines and Myanmar fighting for the last top 24 spot. Over 10000 simulations: Myanmar 55.29%, Philippines 44.71%. Philippines will get it only if they win vs. Singapore, while Myanmar lose vs. Vietnam.

Malaysia could still overtake Vietnam, depending on both teams performance in their opening AFF Championship matches. Based on the current setup, it will make the difference between playing home or away in the second preliminary round, as the champions of the MA ranked 7th in the East will host the champions of the MA ranked 8th. Over 10000 simulations: Vietnam 67.78%, Malaysia 32.22%.

Using the same conditions as those in the 2016 AFC CL (i.e. Kuwait suspended; Iraq, Oman, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria with no licensed clubs), this is how allocations and qualification shape up - assuming Tajikistan's champions get the license. I also assume Tajikistan will be moved to the East - to have 12 MAs in each region.

West

Matches

Play-off round

Al-Wahda (United Arab Emirates) - Al-Wehdat (Jordan)
Al-Fateh (Saudi Arabia) - Uzbekistan 3
Esteghlal (Iran) - Al-Sadd (Qatar)
El Jaish (Qatar) - Uzbekistan 2

East

Matches

Preliminary round 1

[1] Istiklol (Tajikistan) vs. Yadanarbon (Myanmar)

Preliminary round 2

[2] Sukhothai (Thailand) vs. Match [1] winners
[3] Bangkok United (Thailand) vs. Indonesia 1
[4] Kitchee (Hong Kong) vs. Bengaluru FC (India)
[5] Hà Nội T&T (Vietnam) vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim (Malaysia)

Play-off round

Jeju United (Korea Republic) vs. Match [5] winners
Kawasaki Frontale / Kashima Antlers (Japan) vs. Match [4] winners
Shanghai Shenhua (China PR) vs. Match [3] winners
Brisbane Roar (Australia) vs. Match [2] winners

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.