2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.
See the previous update (14 October 2016).
Best movers:
3 - Hungary, Denmark, Cyprus, Armenia
Worst movers:
-5 - Albania
-3 - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden
-2 - Russia, Romania
Turkey replace Albania in League B.
Cyprus replace Estonia in League C.
1 1 Germany 33086 2 3 Belgium 31382 3 2 France 31268 4 4 Portugal 31155 5 6 Spain 29730 6 7 England 29651 7 5 Russia 29258 8 8 Italy 29106 9 9 Switzerland 28786 10 10 Croatia 27099 11 11 Poland 26802 12 12 Iceland 24995 13 15 Netherlands 24965 14 13 Austria 24958 15 14 Wales 24809 16 17 Ukraine 24686 17 19 Republic of Ireland 24609 18 21 Hungary 24186 19 16 Bosnia and Herzegovina 24040 20 22 Slovakia 23654 21 18 Sweden 23406 22 20 Romania 22857 23 24 Czech Republic 22847 24 25 Turkey 22518 25 26 Slovenia 22287 26 27 Northern Ireland 22227 27 29 Israel 21752 28 23 Albania 21650 29 32 Denmark 21251 29 28 Greece 21251 31 30 Montenegro 20251 32 31 Norway 20148 33 33 Scotland 19921 34 34 Serbia 19526 35 35 Bulgaria 19311 36 36 Lithuania 17921 37 37 Finland 17321 38 41 Cyprus 16771 39 38 Azerbaijan 16701 40 39 Estonia 16161 41 40 Belarus 15888 42 42 Georgia 15403 43 46 Armenia 14445 44 43 Latvia 14321 45 44 Faroe Islands 13610 46 45 Kazakhstan 13271 47 49 Moldova 12930 48 47 FYR Macedonia 12531 49 48 Luxembourg 12511 50 50 Liechtenstein 11410 51 51 Malta 10730 52 52 Kosovo 10450 53 53 San Marino 8850 54 54 Andorra 8820 55 55 Gibraltar 8275
League A
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, France, Portugal
Pot 2: Spain, England, Russia, Italy
Pot 3: Switzerland, Croatia, Poland, Iceland
League B
Pot 1: Netherlands, Austria, Wales, Ukraine
Pot 2: Republic of Ireland, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovakia
Pot 3: Sweden, Romania, Czech Republic, Turkey
League C
Pot 1: Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Israel, Albania
Pot 2: Denmark, Greece, Montenegro, Norway
Pot 3: Scotland, Serbia, Bulgaria, Lithuania
Pot 4: Finland, Cyprus, Azerbaijan
League D
Pot 1: Estonia, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia
Pot 2: Latvia, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Moldova
Pot 3: FYR Macedonia, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Malta
Pot 4: Kosovo, San Marino, Andorra, Gibraltar
It's interesting that teams like Scotland, Serbia, or Bulgaria have a much tougher road to Euro 2020 than Estonia, Georgia, or Armenia.
ReplyDeleteI thought the same way 3 or 4 years ago when I had read the rules of Nations League for the first time and now I see that it comes to reality :( Relegation to lower league may be profitable for some teams to make their path to the big tournament easier.
ReplyDeleteOddly if you are eliminated with games to play in the World Cup qualifying then there is an incentive to lose those final matches, particularly for teams at bottom of league C!
ReplyDeleteThere is one interesting thing - how UEFA will deal with League C seeding?
ReplyDeleteThere are two options, both have a big advantage and a big disadvantage:
OPTION 1 (the way you presented above):
Pot 1: C1, C2, C3, C4
Pot 2: C5, C6, C7, C8
Pot 3: C9, C10, C11, C12
Pot 4: C13, C14, C15
OPTION 2:
Pot 1: C1, C2, C3, C4
Pot 2: C5, C6, C7, C8
Pot 3: C9, C10, C11
Pot 4: C12, C13, C14, C15
Taking into consideration that 4 teams will be relegated, each from one group, option 1 is not good, as there will be possible that C9 team go into 3-team-group and be relegated (as the weakest in their group); and C12 go into 4-team-group and be NOT relegated (as there would be weaker teams in its group: C13, C14 or C15).
In this case Option 2 is better way to seed, because all 4 weakest teams go to different groups and theoretically will be relegated.
But there is another important thing - how global ranking of League C will be made? This will be extremely important, because it is almost clear that not only group winners will play for the place in Euro 2020, but lower places too (some group winners may qualify via traditional qualifying, and some qualifying spots will drop from Leagues A and B to League C). So, League C teams will have played different number of matches (4 or 6). There are two ways to make a global ranking (i.e. compare second-placed team of three-team group with second-placed team of four-team group):
- count and average points per game (still not good enough because a team from a four-team group will have played with a weaker opponent and a team from a three-team group - not)
- count only record against 1 and 3 placed teams, and in this case Option 1 is better, because runners-up records would be comparable (opponents will be of the same strength).
There ideal way to solve this is to increase number of teams for League C to 16 and thus get rid of a three-team group. League D then would have 15 teams, but it is acceptable, as there will be no relegations from League D and possibly all 4 League D group winners will play for the last spot of Euro 2020, so the need of making global ranking will be less important.
I expect that League C will have 16 teams, not 15. What I don't understand is why League A has 12 instead of 16. Having more teams, would mean more games involving Germany, Italy, France, Spain, England - in other words, the teams that bring more money to the UEFA pot. It would also mean that those team would have a smaller chance to be relegated keeping League A rich in interest, attendances, TV rights, advertising, etc., with teams in League B pushing hard to be promoted.
DeleteAlso, does anyone know if the second edition of the Nations League would take place in 2020-21 or 2022-23?
DeleteIn one of the earliest introductionary texts about the Nations League UEFA has said:
DeleteIn every even year there are FIFA World Cup or UEFA EURO winners; now in every odd year there will be a UEFA Nations League champion.
So that would mean 2020-2021 for the second edition..
Thanks. That means that there would be no play-offs in the next edition (Georgia vs Armenia for a spot in the World Cup? I hope not) - just a final four with promotions and relegations.
DeleteJust posted this link onto the Welsh Football Fans Facebook page, hope this is acceptable, and thank you once again for all your hard work
ReplyDeleteUEFA has published an interim UEFA Country rankings for Nations League after Nov 14 matches.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/General/02/43/76/92/2437692_DOWNLOAD.pdf
There are big differences in the nations order comparing the list here.
See the article
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/news/newsid=2437695.html#how+uefa+nations+league+could+line
Edgar's numbers incorporate the not yet played qualifying matches for 10000 points each to obtain a more stable prediction of the resulting ranking after the qualifying is finished.
DeleteThe UEFA list is the situation at this moment.
Edgar, maybe you should mention this fact in each NT ranking post. This question keeps coming back again and again ...