The coefficient will be made up of:
- 2011-13 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
– 2013-15 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
– 2015-17 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition: group stage and play-offs) - 40%
Pot 1: Germany, Portugal, Spain, England, Denmark, France, Sweden, Czech Republic, Serbia
Pot 2: Slovakia, Israel, Netherlands, Austria, Croatia, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Slovenia
Pot 3: Ukraine, Norway, Russia, Turkey, Romania, Iceland, Greece, Montenegro, Finland
Pot 4: Wales, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Moldova, Albania
Pot 5: Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Cyprus, Latvia, Estonia
Pot 6: Malta, Luxembourg, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands, San Marino, Andorra, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, Kosovo
1 Germany 39036 2 Portugal 38379 3 England 36621 4 Spain 36536 5 Denmark 35590 6 France 34262 7 Sweden 34259 8 Czech Republic 33690 9 Serbia 31060 ------------------------------- 10 Slovakia 31057 11 Israel 30787 12 Netherlands 29817 13 Austria 29406 14 Croatia 28240 15 Belgium 28237 16 Poland 28102 17 Switzerland 27882 18 Slovenia 27372 ------------------------------- 19 Ukraine 27372 20 Norway 26830 21 Russia 26414 22 Turkey 25926 23 Romania 25859 24 Iceland 25679 25 Greece 25522 26 Montenegro 24791 27 Finland 24581 ------------------------------- 28 Wales 23684 29 Bulgaria 23309 30 FYR Macedonia 23284 31 Georgia 22401 32 Hungary 22349 33 Republic of Ireland 22004 34 Scotland 21784 35 Moldova 20696 36 Albania 18584 ------------------------------- 37 Lithuania 18411 38 Azerbaijan 18331 39 Armenia 18126 40 Bosnia and Herzegovina 18056 41 Belarus 17741 42 Kazakhstan 16826 43 Cyprus 16636 44 Latvia 16516 45 Estonia 14498 ------------------------------- 46 Malta 14331 47 Luxembourg 12878 48 Northern Ireland 12611 49 Faroe Islands 12113 50 San Marino 10740 51 Andorra 10045 52 Liechtenstein 8058 53 Gibraltar 0 53 Kosovo 0
Hey Edgar, could you please take a closer look at Spain, the Netherlands and Norway ?
ReplyDeleteI have:
for ESP (47070 + 2*35053 + 2*32753)/5 = 36536
for NED (37752 + 2*27853 + 2*27814)/5 = 29817
for NOR (32145 + 2*20751 + 2*30251)/5 = 26830
You're right Ed - had a couple of mistakes in the 2017 preliminaries.
DeleteThank you!
How tie-break between Slovenia and Ukraine has been done?
ReplyDeleteFrom the regulations:
DeleteIf two or more associations have the same reference period coefficient, the following criteria are applied to the most recent half cycle, in the order given, to separate them:
a. coefficient;
b. average goal difference;
c. average number of goals scored;
d. average number of away goals scored;
e. average disciplinary points based only on yellow and red cards received (red
card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one
match = 3 points);
f. drawing of lots.
In the qualifying competition for EURO 2017 the coefficients were: SVN - 25352 and UKR - 24101.
Ed, FIFA indicated today that the draw for 2018 WC will be in December 1st, probably using November ranking. With that, and the games to be played, who would be the Seeds?
ReplyDeleteGabriel, did they announce that they will use November ranking or is that your assumption?
DeleteIt would make sense because African qualifiers finish in November, but European and South African teams involved in play-offs could gain unfair advantage over direct qualifiers.
Assumed.
DeleteBut you are right nogomet, they might use October.
I forgot about the play-offs.
Ed, if it is not too much to ask, again (sorry), how it would become in october? Any changes?
Elo predicts, based on all currently scheduled matches, that the top-10 of the November 2017 ranking looks like:
ReplyDelete1 Argentina
2 Germany
3 Brazil
4 Chile
5 Poland (!)
6 France
7 Belgium
8 Portugal
9 Mexico
10 Spain
All of the teams in the top-7 are predicted to qualify, so those teams (+ Russia) would populate pot 1.
Of course, a lot of qualifiers still have to be played and the elo prediction success-rate is about 58%.
Thanks Ed!
DeleteDo you have the point difference among them in this ranking if is not too much to ask?
Or if you have an excel spreadsheet to help me, Im writing an article about the possible Seeds, I will give you the correct credits. Mail me, if you have an excel that you could send me gage_cazotto@yahoo.com.br. It would help me a lot.
DeleteGabriel,
ReplyDeletethe last two World Cups in Brazil and South Africa FIFA used the appropriate October ranking to seed the finals draw in December. So Nogomet is probably right, although maybe for the wrong reason: in my experience the word 'fair' is not present in FIFA's vocabulary and at least of no consideration in their actions and deliberations.
So here's the elo-predicted top-15 from the October 2017 ranking:
1 Argentina 1807
2 Brazil 1729
3 Germany 1678
4 Chile 1444
5 France 1411
6 Portugal 1404
7 Poland 1371
8 Mexico 1345
9 Belgium 1323
10 Spain 1214
11 Colombia 1203
12 Republic of Ireland 1200
13 Uruguay 1199
14 England 1186
15 Switzerland 1145
Can we have an update to the U21 rankings to get an idea of how the seedings for the 2021 Qualifying might look?
ReplyDelete