Applying the 2026 allocations to the 2014 World Cup

2018 version here.

First of all, I must say I'm against the expansion - and I'm saying this as a fan of a team that hasn't been to the World Cup since 1998. Further more, to quote the late David Taylor, I would like to disabuse anyone of the notion that I would embrace the expansion idea as it would give Romania a better chance of qualifying. More on this later in the post.

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.

FIFA Ranking: April 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 April.

No matches left.

UEFA Nations League update (31 March 2017)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

FIFA Ranking: April 2017 preview

Next update: 31 March 2017

125 matches left [Sim results at the end].

Brazil will be the next No. 1 if they win against Uruguay (away) and Paraguay (at home). However, the odds are not in their favor. Argentina (home vs. Chile, away to Bolivia) were 1st in 57.95% of the 10000 simulations I ran, with Brazil with only 42.05%. Of course, Elo ratings don't take into account high altitude.

AFC MA Ranking update (3 March 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.