FIFA Ranking: July 2017 preview

Overdue, I know (so I've been told by e-mail). With deadlines at work and end of school year events for my kids, there's little time for the blog these days.

Anyway, FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 July.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.


Germany could overtake Brazil on top of the pile, but it only happened in 17.15% of the sims.

Four team will improve their best ever ranking:

Poland (at least 7 - 10 in June 2017)
Northern Ireland (at least 24 - 25 in June 2016)
Congo DR (at least 31 - 37 in February 2017)
Mauritania (at least 82 - 85 in December 1995)

For will return to their worst ever ranking (or drop even lower):

Netherlands (at most 32 - 32 in April 2017): 72.71% to drop further.
USA (at most 36 - 36 in July 2012): 86.76% to drop further.
Kuwait (at most 172 - 172 in November 2016)
Liechtenstein (at most 189 - 189 in November 2016)

Four will drop to new lows:

Finland (at most 109 - 108 in June 2017)
Latvia (at most 129 - 124 in April 2017)
Sudan (at most 163 - 158 in June 2017)
Malta (at most 189 - 183 in December 2016)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

India (at least 98 - 94 in February 1996) - 21 years and 5 months
Iran (at least 25 - 23 in May 2006) - 11 years and 2 months
Andorra (at least 130 - 129 in May 2006) - 11 years and 2 months
Djibouti (at least 186 - 185 in November 2009) - 7 years and 8 months
Chinese Taipei (at least 148 - 147 in March 2011) - 6 years and 4 months


Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Côte d'Ivoire (at most 55 - 58 in September 2004) - 12 years and 10 months
Cape Verde Islands (at most 112 - 114 in May 2010) - 7 years and 2 months
Hungary (at most 56 - 62 in August 2010) - 6 years and 11 months
Namibia (at most 147 - 153 in June 2011) - 6 years and 1 month
Ethiopia (at most 135 - 138 in May 2012) - 5 years and 2 months

Poland will be ranked above France and Spain for the first time ever.
USA will be ranked below Iran and Congo DR for the first time ever.
Ukraine and Congo DR will be ranked above Netherlands for the first time ever.
Haiti will be ranked above Côte d'Ivoire and Hungary for the first time ever.
Norway will be ranked below Qatar and Mauritania for the first time ever.
Palestine will be ranked above Jordan and Finland for the first time ever.

Sweden will be ranked above Netherlands after 17 years and 1 month.

Country - Worst ranking - Best ranking - Average ranking

Brazil	2	1	1.172
Germany	7	1	2.203
Argentina	4	2	2.852
Switzerland	6	3	4.404
Poland	7	4	5.478
Chile	12	2	6.826
Portugal	12	2	7.018
Colombia	8	6	7.279
France	9	7	8.398
Belgium	10	8	9.407
Spain	12	9	11.140
Italy	13	12	12.407
England	15	13	13.423
Mexico	22	9	14.154
Peru	16	14	14.569
Croatia	17	15	15.583
Uruguay	18	16	16.698
Sweden	20	17	18.041
Iceland	21	18	19.047
Wales	22	19	20.063
Slovakia	23	20	21.076
Northern Ireland	24	21	22.117
Iran	25	23	23.125
Egypt	26	24	24.210
Ukraine	28	25	25.326
Costa Rica	29	26	26.333
Senegal	30	27	27.403
Congo DR	31	28	28.411
Republic of Ireland	32	29	29.447
Bosnia and Herzegovina	33	30	30.521
Ecuador	34	31	31.676
Cameroon	41	14	32.202
Netherlands	35	32	32.912
Turkey	36	33	33.953
Tunisia	37	34	35.047
Paraguay	38	35	36.104
USA	40	36	37.201
Austria	41	37	38.492
Greece	42	38	39.516
Nigeria	43	40	40.662
Czech Republic	44	41	41.781
Romania	45	42	42.781
Serbia	45	42	42.781
Australia	61	13	44.566
Burkina Faso	47	44	44.960
Japan	48	45	46.177
Denmark	49	46	47.177
Algeria	50	47	48.180
Ghana	52	36	48.928
Russia	69	17	49.287
Haiti	52	48	49.416
Korea Republic	53	50	51.017
Panama	54	51	52.083
Slovenia	55	52	53.198
Bulgaria	56	53	54.320
Montenegro	56	53	54.320
Côte d'Ivoire	58	55	56.434
Hungary	59	56	57.436
South Africa	60	57	58.462
Scotland	61	58	59.462
Mali	62	60	60.687
Morocco	63	61	61.695
Saudi Arabia	64	62	62.695
Albania	65	63	63.897
Uzbekistan	66	64	64.898
Guinea	67	65	65.981
Bolivia	68	66	66.982
Venezuela	69	67	67.985
Israel	70	69	69.022
Belarus	71	70	70.026
Honduras	72	71	71.026
Armenia	74	72	72.263
Uganda	75	73	73.263
Jamaica	77	72	73.630
United Arab Emirates	76	74	75.028
China PR	78	76	76.080
Trinidad and Tobago	79	77	77.104
Qatar	80	78	78.104
Azerbaijan	81	79	79.127
Mauritania	82	80	80.130
Syria	83	81	81.130
Sierra Leone	84	82	82.150
Kenya	85	83	83.522
Guinea-Bissau	86	84	84.522
Congo	87	85	85.607
Libya	88	86	86.622
Norway	90	87	87.655
Curaçao	96	74	87.924
Faroe Islands	91	88	88.962
Gabon	92	89	90.239
Benin	95	90	91.972
Palestine	96	91	93.042
Zambia	97	90	93.458
Mozambique	104	88	93.508
Madagascar	101	86	94.085
Cyprus	97	93	94.855
India	98	95	97.128
Estonia	100	97	98.409
Lithuania	101	98	99.409
Canada	102	99	100.419
Guatemala	105	101	102.192
El Salvador	106	102	103.192
Iraq	106	102	103.192
Nicaragua	108	100	104.354
New Zealand	122	38	104.358
Malawi	117	97	105.732
Kazakhstan	108	104	105.950
Suriname	109	105	107.118
Zimbabwe	122	100	108.120
Jordan	110	107	108.920
Togo	111	108	110.021
Finland	112	109	111.163
Georgia	113	110	112.356
Korea DPR	114	111	113.367
Cape Verde Islands	116	112	114.492
Niger	117	113	115.598
Antigua and Barbuda	118	115	116.662
Equatorial Guinea	119	116	117.738
Central African Republic	120	117	118.759
Oman	120	117	118.759
Burundi	122	119	121.112
Bahrain	123	122	122.482
Lebanon	124	123	123.482
St. Kitts and Nevis	124	123	123.482
Tanzania	138	112	124.490
Philippines	127	125	125.945
Kyrgyzstan	128	126	126.945
Rwanda	128	126	126.945
Andorra	130	128	128.945
Latvia	131	129	130.062
Thailand	132	130	131.207
Swaziland	133	131	132.305
Botswana	140	123	132.835
Vietnam	135	132	133.409
FYR Macedonia	136	133	134.427
Luxembourg	137	134	135.448
Ethiopia	139	135	136.943
Turkmenistan	140	137	137.955
Comoros	142	139	139.708
Angola	153	131	140.728
Maldives	143	140	140.806
New Caledonia	144	141	141.829
South Sudan	144	141	141.829
Hong Kong	146	143	143.944
Yemen	146	143	143.944
Chinese Taipei	148	145	146.293
Lesotho	151	135	146.466
Tahiti	149	146	147.347
Tajikistan	150	148	148.985
Liberia	152	149	150.761
Namibia	159	147	150.808
Chad	154	151	152.342
Puerto Rico	155	152	153.342
Solomon Islands	156	153	154.406
Mauritius	159	136	154.761
Afghanistan	157	154	155.406
Myanmar	158	155	156.546
Moldova	159	156	157.739
Grenada	180	150	158.268
Dominican Republic	161	159	159.710
Guyana	162	160	160.880
Gambia	164	161	162.100
Papua New Guinea	165	162	163.100
Bhutan	166	163	164.237
Cuba	166	163	164.237
Sudan	166	163	164.237
Belize	170	166	167.443
Malaysia	170	166	167.443
Singapore	172	168	169.443
Nepal	173	169	170.681
Laos	174	170	171.681
Barbados	183	160	171.830
Aruba	175	171	173.006
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	182	160	173.266
Cambodia	176	172	174.052
Kuwait	176	172	174.052
Indonesia	178	174	176.073
São Tomé e Príncipe	180	176	177.590
Kosovo	182	178	179.028
Fiji	183	179	180.317
Macau	184	181	181.657
Bermuda	185	182	183.230
St. Lucia	194	163	183.994
American Samoa	186	183	184.584
Cook Islands	186	183	184.584
Djibouti	186	183	184.584
Dominica	191	176	184.629
Brunei Darussalam	189	186	187.784
Guam	189	186	187.784
Seychelles	194	158	188.597
Bangladesh	191	188	190.036
Liechtenstein	192	189	191.036
Malta	192	189	191.036
Samoa	194	192	193.352
Vanuatu	195	194	194.498
Timor-Leste	196	196	196.000
Sri Lanka	197	197	197.000
Mongolia	198	198	198.000
US Virgin Islands	199	199	199.000
Pakistan	200	200	200.000
Montserrat	201	201	201.000
Cayman Islands	202	202	202.000
Turks and Caicos Islands	202	202	202.000
San Marino	204	204	204.000
British Virgin Islands	205	205	205.000
Anguilla	206	206	206.000
Bahamas	206	206	206.000
Eritrea	206	206	206.000
Gibraltar	206	206	206.000
Somalia	206	206	206.000
Tonga	206	206	206.000

Min/max points - again based on sims.

June Rank - Country - June Points - July Min Points - July Max Points

1	Brazil	1715	1603	1603
2	Argentina	1626	1413	1413
3	Germany	1511	1260	1637
4	Chile	1422	1099	1436
5	Colombia	1366	1208	1208
6	France	1332	1199	1199
7	Belgium	1292	1194	1194
8	Portugal	1267	1103	1426
9	Switzerland	1263	1329	1329
10	Poland	1198	1319	1319
10	Spain	1198	1114	1114
12	Italy	1193	1059	1059
13	England	1119	1051	1051
13	Wales	1119	922	922
15	Peru	1108	1014	1014
16	Uruguay	1099	995	995
17	Mexico	1050	897	1183
18	Croatia	1033	1007	1007
19	Costa Rica	913	839	839
20	Egypt	903	866	866
21	Slovakia	883	917	917
22	Iceland	877	927	927
23	USA	861	724	752
24	Ecuador	858	791	791
25	Turkey	855	779	779
26	Republic of Ireland	854	816	816
27	Senegal	839	831	831
28	Northern Ireland	837	897	897
29	Bosnia and Herzegovina	835	815	815
30	Iran	829	893	893
31	Netherlands	820	782	782
32	Cameroon	811	716	1026
33	Hungary	802	616	616
34	Sweden	793	933	933
35	Austria	750	723	723
36	Paraguay	748	753	753
37	Ukraine	737	843	843
38	Nigeria	730	715	715
39	Congo DR	728	823	823
40	Greece	726	716	716
41	Tunisia	705	764	764
41	Burkina Faso	705	698	698
43	Korea Republic	703	662	662
44	Czech Republic	690	714	714
45	Japan	689	684	684
46	Romania	686	713	713
47	Côte d'Ivoire	685	631	631
48	Australia	681	608	1054
49	Ghana	678	665	731
50	Serbia	666	713	713
51	Denmark	660	683	683
52	Montenegro	647	643	643
53	Algeria	636	677	677
53	Saudi Arabia	636	601	601
55	Israel	635	512	512
56	Slovenia	631	652	652
56	Morocco	631	604	604
58	Venezuela	630	521	521
59	Panama	626	653	653
60	Bulgaria	615	643	643
61	Scotland	603	612	612
62	Uzbekistan	582	579	579
63	Russia	561	518	955
64	Haiti	554	667	667
65	South Africa	547	613	613
66	Mali	544	607	607
66	Albania	544	583	583
68	Armenia	527	480	480
69	Honduras	517	499	499
70	Curaçao	492	359	472
71	Uganda	478	476	476
72	Guinea	476	541	541
73	Bolivia	473	532	532
74	Kenya	463	408	408
75	United Arab Emirates	450	459	459
76	Azerbaijan	439	427	427
77	Trinidad and Tobago	436	436	436
77	Syria	436	423	423
79	Jamaica	435	442	484
80	Faroe Islands	431	376	376
81	Benin	427	366	366
82	China PR	425	441	441
83	Belarus	419	503	503
84	Cape Verde Islands	418	284	284
85	Congo	412	399	399
86	Gabon	409	373	373
87	Norway	391	391	391
88	Qatar	374	435	435
89	St. Kitts and Nevis	362	255	255
90	Swaziland	361	232	232
91	Cyprus	356	358	358
92	Libya	351	396	396
93	Antigua and Barbuda	349	276	276
94	Namibia	345	149	180
95	Guatemala	344	320	320
95	New Zealand	344	258	729
97	Madagascar	341	331	396
98	Estonia	337	334	334
99	Zambia	335	347	369
100	India	331	341	341
100	Nicaragua	331	305	328
100	Kazakhstan	331	308	308
103	Guinea-Bissau	330	407	407
104	Mauritania	327	425	425
104	Lithuania	327	333	333
106	Mozambique	326	323	384
106	El Salvador	326	319	319
108	Finland	323	293	293
109	Canada	318	331	331
109	Jordan	318	300	300
109	Equatorial Guinea	318	272	272
112	Togo	317	296	296
113	Sierra Leone	309	415	415
114	Korea DPR	307	288	288
115	Zimbabwe	303	260	330
116	Palestine	294	364	364
117	Malawi	287	278	340
118	Oman	285	271	271
119	Suriname	284	305	305
120	Iraq	280	319	319
121	Botswana	273	204	255
122	Georgia	271	290	290
122	Latvia	271	242	242
124	Yemen	268	192	192
125	Ethiopia	265	215	215
126	Philippines	251	249	249
127	Thailand	249	235	235
128	Rwanda	246	248	248
129	Central African Republic	237	271	271
130	Niger	236	283	283
131	Vietnam	235	231	231
132	Kyrgyzstan	233	248	248
133	Bahrain	232	257	257
133	Puerto Rico	232	167	167
135	Lebanon	228	255	255
136	FYR Macedonia	218	228	228
137	Tajikistan	205	179	179
138	Guyana	194	135	135
139	Tanzania	193	215	285
140	Lesotho	190	174	219
141	Angola	188	170	232
141	Belize	188	119	119
143	Turkmenistan	187	214	214
144	Comoros	186	203	203
145	Luxembourg	184	223	223
145	Dominican Republic	184	144	144
147	South Sudan	183	196	196
148	Burundi	179	262	262
148	Hong Kong	179	192	192
150	Mauritius	175	151	215
151	Tahiti	174	181	181
151	Liberia	174	172	172
153	Papua New Guinea	169	130	130
154	Chad	168	168	168
155	Malaysia	148	119	119
156	Maldives	146	199	199
157	Singapore	143	118	118
158	Afghanistan	140	160	160
158	Sudan	140	123	123
160	Chinese Taipei	136	185	185
161	Moldova	135	154	154
162	New Caledonia	133	196	196
163	Myanmar	132	157	157
164	Grenada	131	94	171
165	Cuba	124	123	123
166	Bhutan	123	123	123
167	Gambia	120	132	132
168	Kuwait	118	111	111
169	Nepal	116	117	117
169	Barbados	116	84	135
171	Aruba	114	113	113
172	Laos	113	116	116
173	Kosovo	112	90	90
174	Cambodia	107	111	111
175	Indonesia	105	110	110
176	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	104	88	139
177	St. Lucia	102	52	129
178	São Tomé e Príncipe	98	98	98
179	Vanuatu	94	51	51
180	Solomon Islands	90	162	162
181	Fiji	87	87	87
182	Malta	84	56	56
183	Guam	82	62	62
184	Macau	77	82	82
185	Bermuda	75	72	72
186	Andorra	69	246	246
186	Liechtenstein	69	56	56
188	Brunei Darussalam	65	62	62
189	American Samoa	64	64	64
189	Cook Islands	64	64	64
189	Samoa	64	53	53
192	Bangladesh	62	60	60
193	Dominica	61	56	107
194	Seychelles	57	51	154
195	Djibouti	53	64	64
196	Timor-Leste	51	42	42
197	Sri Lanka	34	34	34
197	Mongolia	34	30	30
199	US Virgin Islands	26	26	26
200	Pakistan	24	24	24
201	Montserrat	20	20	20
201	Turks and Caicos Islands	20	13	13
203	Cayman Islands	13	13	13
204	San Marino	12	12	12
205	British Virgin Islands	6	6	6
206	Anguilla	0	0	0
206	Bahamas	0	0	0
206	Eritrea	0	0	0
206	Gibraltar	0	0	0
206	Somalia	0	0	0
206	Tonga	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.