2017 CONCACAF Gold Cup simulations

The Gold Cup kicks off today.

The usual 10000 simulations.


First the average points in the group stage:

Costa Rica    6.331
Honduras      4.823
Canada        3.246
French Guiana 2.279
-------------------
USA           7.576
Panama        5.285
Martinique    2.762
Nicaragua     1.418
-------------------
Mexico        8.127
El Salvador   3.720
Jamaica       3.074
Curaçao       2.054

Worst 3rd:

18.32% - Martinique
14.11% - Jamaica
13.68% - Curaçao
12.79% - Nicaragua
11.75% - El Salvador
9.5% - Canada
9.24% - French Guiana
4.74% - Honduras
4.04% - Panama
1.28% - Costa Rica
0.43% - USA
0.12% - Mexico

Reaching the KO stage:

99.69% - Mexico
99.02% - USA
95.15% - Costa Rica
91.66% - Panama
83.76% - Honduras
69.34% - El Salvador
58.12% - Canada
56.41% - Jamaica
52.17% - Martinique
38.21% - French Guiana
34.9% - Curaçao
21.57% - Nicaragua

Reaching the semifinals:

91.32% - Mexico
83.88% - USA
64.48% - Costa Rica
39.32% - Honduras
37.7% - Panama
22.39% - El Salvador
19.11% - Jamaica
19.07% - Canada
8.4% - French Guiana
6.73% - Martinique
5.87% - Curaçao
1.73% - Nicaragua

Reaching the final

81.54% - Mexico
53.99% - USA
29.8% - Costa Rica
12.91% - Panama
10.05% - Honduras
3.61% - Canada
2.5% - El Salvador
2.21% - Jamaica
1.62% - Martinique
1.03% - French Guiana
0.4% - Curaçao
0.34% - Nicaragua

Winners:

41.75% - Mexico
33.59% - USA
14.66% - Costa Rica
4.91% - Panama
3.13% - Honduras
0.76% - Canada
0.35% - Jamaica
0.3% - El Salvador
0.29% - Martinique
0.19% - French Guiana
0.05% - Nicaragua
0.02% - Curaçao

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.