▼

Friday, August 25, 2017

FIFA Ranking: September 2017 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 September. 127 matches left.

This preview is based on 10000 simulations.



Germany have a slight advantage in the fight for the top spot. They were 1st in 54.56% of the simulations. However, Brazil will keep first place with 2 wins (home vs. Ecuador, away vs. Colombia).

Country - Worst ranking - Best ranking - Average ranking

Germany 3 1 1.45
Brazil 3 1 1.57
Argentina 8 2 3.57
Portugal 7 3 4.18
Poland 11 3 5.36
Chile 10 3 5.95
Colombia 13 3 7.74
France 13 5 8.49
Belgium 13 4 8.86
Switzerland 12 5 9.01
Spain 19 6 10.92
Mexico 18 10 12.95
Italy 24 7 14.12
England 28 12 15.83
Wales 30 11 16
Croatia 23 11 16.35
Peru 29 11 17.23
Uruguay 30 8 18.04
Slovakia 35 9 19.81
Iceland 36 14 21.69
Sweden 36 13 22.78
Costa Rica 32 14 23.46
Iran 36 15 24
Northern Ireland 39 16 24.42
USA 36 18 25.59
Ukraine 44 12 26.74
Ecuador 41 12 27.09
Republic of Ireland 43 17 27.16
Egypt 42 21 30.29
Netherlands 47 16 30.6
Turkey 50 14 30.95
Bosnia and Herzegovina 44 22 31.06
Greece 59 19 34.45
Tunisia 48 22 35.23
Senegal 47 25 35.35
Congo DR 51 24 37.09
Japan 58 25 39.13
Romania 64 23 39.61
Cameroon 53 30 40.81
Czech Republic 61 14 42.56
Denmark 67 23 43.18
Austria 64 26 44.29
Serbia 60 28 45.11
Korea Republic 65 29 45.2
Australia 60 33 46.58
Paraguay 64 23 46.87
Burkina Faso 61 33 47.81
Haiti 56 41 48.13
Hungary 66 29 49.42
Côte d'Ivoire 66 38 50.3
Scotland 67 38 51.24
Bulgaria 70 19 51.39
Slovenia 70 30 52.01
Ghana 65 41 52.36
Montenegro 74 33 52.76
Algeria 69 39 52.79
Nigeria 74 30 52.87
Saudi Arabia 72 36 55.89
Panama 67 40 55.99
Morocco 69 40 56.25
Bolivia 74 30 57.64
Jamaica 64 49 57.92
Guinea 76 51 63.74
Uzbekistan 77 46 64.26
Russia 70 58 64.27
Albania 75 56 65.02
Belarus 81 50 66.76
South Africa 79 62 68.86
Mali 83 55 70.76
Venezuela 85 37 70.95
Armenia 87 38 71.67
China PR 87 59 73.13
Israel 85 46 73.38
United Arab Emirates 91 62 74.74
Uganda 85 62 75.14
Qatar 87 66 75.88
Honduras 87 67 76.64
Norway 101 47 78.15
Syria 94 62 79.17
Curaçao 90 78 83.74
Kenya 93 74 84.22
Azerbaijan 102 67 84.83
Cyprus 104 59 85.16
Congo 105 61 86.15
Trinidad and Tobago 102 69 86.78
Palestine 103 80 87.32
Benin 96 79 87.47
Gabon 103 66 87.92
Libya 107 63 88.03
Guinea-Bissau 97 84 90.27
Faroe Islands 110 60 91.63
Zambia 106 72 92.09
Mauritania 101 84 92.54
Estonia 112 68 93.43
Sierra Leone 101 88 94.66
Iraq 111 78 95.45
El Salvador 102 90 96.2
Canada 105 88 96.52
Lithuania 125 58 97.95
Cape Verde Islands 126 62 98.36
Madagascar 105 93 99.26
Zimbabwe 108 98 102.21
Mozambique 114 98 104.52
Kazakhstan 130 58 105.74
Nicaragua 112 100 106.14
India 124 99 107.78
Suriname 115 102 108.03
Niger 125 89 108.28
Jordan 122 100 108.3
Georgia 130 70 109.09
New Zealand 127 102 111.04
Oman 132 105 111.56
St. Kitts and Nevis 119 106 113.1
Finland 143 80 113.82
Korea DPR 134 105 115.92
Bahrain 137 105 116.11
Antigua and Barbuda 123 110 117
Rwanda 124 112 118.09
Philippines 133 108 118.25
Togo 132 109 118.85
Lebanon 131 95 119.46
Kyrgyz Republic 132 114 122.28
Equatorial Guinea 140 109 122.5
Tanzania 129 117 122.84
FYR Macedonia 151 80 123.71
Malawi 133 111 124.28
Central African Republic 132 121 126.39
Thailand 140 101 127.86
Burundi 134 123 128.46
Yemen 143 100 130.48
Guatemala 136 126 130.86
Namibia 137 127 131.87
Vietnam 142 126 132.39
Turkmenistan 146 117 132.83
Liberia 139 128 133.1
Latvia 152 72 134.04
Sudan 140 129 134.12
Luxembourg 152 76 135.8
Angola 142 131 136.64
Swaziland 143 133 137.93
Comoros 146 137 140.46
Andorra 149 76 140.89
New Caledonia 148 139 142.03
Lesotho 149 140 143.1
Ethiopia 150 141 144.14
Tajikistan 156 137 145.79
Hong Kong 154 135 145.86
Botswana 151 143 145.94
Moldova 161 89 147.04
Tahiti 154 147 149.41
South Sudan 155 148 150.56
Chinese Taipei 156 130 151.13
Chad 158 151 153.1
Myanmar 161 144 153.39
Maldives 160 117 154.82
Solomon Islands 167 126 155.71
Afghanistan 163 126 156.58
Guyana 162 155 157.49
Grenada 165 158 160.08
Singapore 172 153 161.37
Dominican Republic 166 159 161.5
Malaysia 174 153 163.11
Mauritius 168 161 163.13
Puerto Rico 169 162 164.2
Gambia 170 163 165.22
Papua New Guinea 171 164 166.36
Laos 172 165 167.56
Belize 175 167 169.75
Indonesia 175 166 169.95
Nepal 179 158 170
Kosovo 187 94 170.58
Cambodia 177 160 170.7
Barbados 176 168 170.75
Dominica 178 170 172.43
Bhutan 179 127 174.03
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 179 173 174.26
São Tomé e Príncipe 181 176 177.36
Macau 186 155 178.24
St. Lucia 182 177 178.41
Fiji 184 173 178.58
Aruba 183 178 179.65
Cuba 184 179 180.65
Kuwait 186 181 182.26
Bermuda 187 182 183.26
Liechtenstein 190 96 185.03
Djibouti 188 185 185.31
Brunei Darussalam 189 186 186.31
Malta 193 95 187.23
Vanuatu 191 188 188.28
Guam 192 189 189.28
Seychelles 193 190 190.28
Timor-Leste 194 192 192.13
American Samoa 195 193 193.13
Cook Islands 195 193 193.13
Samoa 195 193 193.13
Bangladesh 198 196 196.13
Mongolia 199 197 197.13
Sri Lanka 200 198 198.13
US Virgin Islands 201 199 199.13
Montserrat 202 200 200.13
Pakistan 202 200 200.13
Cayman Islands 204 202 202.13
Turks and Caicos Islands 204 202 202.13
San Marino 205 144 202.67
Gibraltar 206 139 204.26
British Virgin Islands 206 205 205.07
Anguilla 207 206 206.07
Bahamas 207 206 206.07
Eritrea 207 206 206.07
Somalia 207 206 206.07
Tonga 207 206 206.07

Min/max points - again based on sims.

1 Brazil 1604 1431 1677
2 Germany 1549 1470 1606
3 Argentina 1399 1247 1482
4 Switzerland 1329 1102 1210
5 Poland 1319 1162 1393
6 Portugal 1267 1270 1386
7 Chile 1250 1195 1316
8 Colombia 1208 1116 1341
9 Belgium 1194 1090 1265
10 France 1157 1083 1237
11 Spain 1114 1007 1184
12 Italy 1059 939 1176
13 England 1051 887 1056
14 Mexico 1046 1035 1116
15 Peru 1023 878 1103
16 Croatia 1007 946 1081
17 Uruguay 995 874 1142
18 Wales 951 863 1089
19 Sweden 933 822 1028
20 Iceland 927 824 987
21 Costa Rica 918 852 980
22 Slovakia 917 829 1140
23 Northern Ireland 897 772 945
24 Iran 893 812 969
25 Egypt 866 761 869
26 USA 865 814 916
27 Ukraine 843 733 1055
28 Congo DR 822 681 844
29 Republic of Ireland 816 747 930
30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 815 715 860
31 Senegal 794 707 829
32 Ecuador 791 767 1056
33 Turkey 779 690 985
34 Tunisia 776 705 862
35 Cameroon 737 671 780
36 Netherlands 734 719 947
37 Austria 723 608 830
38 Greece 716 633 905
38 Nigeria 716 521 784
40 Czech Republic 714 630 978
40 Paraguay 714 607 863
42 Romania 713 609 836
42 Serbia 713 625 789
44 Japan 696 638 826
45 Australia 691 625 745
46 Denmark 683 582 848
47 Burkina Faso 678 621 748
48 Algeria 677 564 684
49 Korea Republic 674 593 792
50 Ghana 665 583 678
51 Slovenia 652 552 782
52 Bulgaria 643 547 913
52 Montenegro 643 514 749
54 Côte d'Ivoire 636 582 692
55 Haiti 625 664 664
56 Hungary 616 572 789
57 Jamaica 614 607 626
58 Scotland 612 562 702
59 Saudi Arabia 601 542 721
60 Morocco 600 563 671
61 Panama 592 574 688
62 Russia 590 558 558
63 Albania 583 492 587
64 Uzbekistan 579 481 640
65 Mali 545 439 588
66 Guinea 536 492 616
66 South Africa 536 477 541
68 Bolivia 532 522 805
69 Venezuela 521 427 719
70 Israel 512 420 655
71 Belarus 503 454 620
72 Armenia 480 414 703
73 Uganda 464 421 552
74 United Arab Emirates 459 390 543
75 Honduras 455 414 502
76 Sierra Leone 448 366 366
77 China PR 447 414 564
78 Qatar 433 406 509
79 Azerbaijan 427 342 495
80 Syria 423 387 546
81 Congo 413 342 555
82 Kenya 412 389 423
83 Libya 399 328 517
83 Trinidad and Tobago 399 361 473
85 Norway 391 359 655
86 Curaçao 384 405 405
86 Mauritania 384 365 386
88 Gabon 381 345 515
89 Faroe Islands 376 309 590
90 Madagascar 370 343 343
91 Benin 369 381 408
92 Guinea-Bissau 365 381 381
93 Palestine 364 344 389
94 Cyprus 358 347 571
95 Canada 352 332 368
96 Zambia 345 334 448
97 India 341 271 316
98 Estonia 334 305 486
99 Lithuania 333 266 575
100 Guatemala 331 235 235
101 Zimbabwe 325 326 326
102 Iraq 324 308 412
103 El Salvador 320 361 361
104 Mozambique 315 300 326
105 Kazakhstan 308 254 572
106 Malawi 306 246 278
107 Suriname 305 303 303
108 Jordan 299 273 315
109 Nicaragua 295 307 307
110 Finland 293 215 404
110 Korea DPR 293 243 290
112 Georgia 290 253 478
113 Togo 289 248 280
114 Cape Verde Islands 284 263 548
115 Antigua and Barbuda 276 276 276
116 Equatorial Guinea 272 224 280
116 Niger 272 267 370
118 Central African Republic 271 251 251
119 Rwanda 260 273 273
120 Ethiopia 259 191 191
120 Oman 259 237 292
120 Tanzania 259 256 256
123 New Zealand 258 256 305
124 Bahrain 257 232 289
125 Lebanon 255 253 335
125 St. Kitts and Nevis 255 286 286
127 Philippines 249 249 280
128 Kyrgyz Republic 248 245 268
129 Andorra 246 191 445
130 Thailand 243 219 313
131 Latvia 242 182 463
132 Burundi 235 245 245
133 Liberia 232 230 230
134 Vietnam 231 215 241
135 FYR Macedonia 228 183 403
136 Luxembourg 223 185 448
136 Namibia 223 233 233
138 Angola 220 219 219
139 Swaziland 217 217 217
140 Botswana 201 190 190
141 Turkmenistan 200 204 257
142 Maldives 199 156 258
143 Comoros 197 204 204
143 Lesotho 197 193 193
145 New Caledonia 196 196 196
146 Hong Kong 192 175 215
146 Yemen 192 216 309
148 Chinese Taipei 185 175 229
148 South Sudan 185 177 177
150 Tahiti 181 181 181
151 Tajikistan 180 168 213
152 Sudan 179 228 228
153 Chad 168 168 168
154 Puerto Rico 167 132 132
155 Solomon Islands 162 137 235
156 Afghanistan 160 147 246
157 Myanmar 157 155 185
158 Gambia 156 131 131
159 Moldova 154 148 377
160 Mauritius 150 136 136
161 Dominican Republic 144 140 140
162 Grenada 140 141 141
163 Guyana 135 148 148
164 Papua New Guinea 130 130 130
165 Bhutan 123 102 238
166 Belize 119 118 118
166 Malaysia 119 115 158
168 Barbados 118 115 115
169 Nepal 117 101 141
169 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 117 107 107
171 Laos 116 126 126
171 Singapore 116 120 160
173 Aruba 113 92 92
174 Kuwait 111 75 75
175 Indonesia 110 111 120
176 Cambodia 109 110 138
177 Dominica 107 111 111
178 São Tomé e Príncipe 98 98 98
179 St. Lucia 95 94 94
180 Kosovo 90 67 358
181 Fiji 87 88 107
182 Cuba 80 88 88
183 Macau 79 72 154
184 Bermuda 72 72 72
185 Guam 69 50 50
186 American Samoa 64 38 38
186 Cook Islands 64 38 38
188 Brunei Darussalam 62 62 62
189 Bangladesh 60 35 35
190 Liechtenstein 56 56 358
190 Malta 56 44 349
192 Djibouti 53 64 64
192 Samoa 53 38 38
194 Seychelles 52 48 48
195 Vanuatu 51 51 51
196 Timor-Leste 42 40 40
197 Sri Lanka 34 29 29
198 Mongolia 30 30 30
199 US Virgin Islands 26 26 26
200 Pakistan 24 20 20
201 Montserrat 20 20 20
202 Cayman Islands 13 13 13
202 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 13 13
204 San Marino 12 10 190
205 British Virgin Islands 6 6 6
206 Anguilla 0 0 0
206 Bahamas 0 0 0
206 Eritrea 0 0 0
206 Gibraltar 0 0 203
206 Somalia 0 0 0
206 Tonga 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

on

26 comments:

  1. AnonymousSeptember 2, 2017 at 1:10 PM

    ...and Poland has no chance to be seeds...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownSeptember 3, 2017 at 1:02 AM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousSeptember 3, 2017 at 1:03 AM

      And that od based on what?

      Delete
  2. AnonymousSeptember 3, 2017 at 2:01 AM

    Crazy seventh round in European qualifiers. I think the surprises that will have the biggest impact are Iceland's defeat in Finland, Ireland's draw in Georgia, and Cyprus's three goals in 11 minutes against Bosnia.

    Play-offs look like this right now (assuming Croatia beats Kosovo when they finish their game):

    Pot A: Portugal, Italy, Slovakia, Sweden
    Pot B: Northern Ireland, Ukraine, Ireland, Greece
    Out: Montenegro

    Still a lot to play for, in particular in groups A, D, E, H, and I.

    ReplyDelete
  3. UnknownSeptember 6, 2017 at 11:57 AM

    Any chance for an analysis of potential World Cup pot 1 teams probability?

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousSeptember 6, 2017 at 2:18 PM

    Edgar, I enter every day at this web page. I think I speak for each of your followers, that we need you more than ever. These qualifiers are the most intense one I have ever experienced. Lots of thoughts and worries about posibilities to qualify, the risk of your team ending up being the worst second (UEFA) and add to that the complexity of the seeding situation for the Play Offs. As a Swede (living in Argentina - cheering for both countries) I would love to have info how the posibilities are to avoid that "worst second spot" and at the same time enter in the 4 seeds, by that avoiding in a terrifying Play Off for example Italia, Portugal/Switzwerland, Kroatia and Slovakia and go instead for the much easier sides Greece, Scotland/Slovenia, Turkiet and Montenegro. Edgar please arise from the dark offline shadow and give our hopes some realistic levels, so we can start getting up from our beds in the morning without stomach ache, stop feeling distracted during the day and please giv us the chance to be able to concentrate on more important this in life than football; love and well being for our children. Thanks man. You are the best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarSeptember 8, 2017 at 12:37 PM

      Fredrik, is that you? Very touching and very nice of Ed to provide the update. :)

      Delete
    2. AnonymousSeptember 9, 2017 at 10:19 PM

      I am Kristoffer, always check the site, almost never leave a comment. Thank You!

      Delete
    3. EdgarSeptember 15, 2017 at 9:41 AM

      You're welcome, Kristoffer!

      Delete
  5. UnknownSeptember 6, 2017 at 4:31 PM

    Next update on 8th ???~

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousSeptember 6, 2017 at 5:53 PM

    What a mess in Europe. Still 21 teams hunting for first of second place. Four teams in two points in group I. Let's try again:

    To qualify: France, Portugal, Germany, Serbia, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, Croatia

    Play-offs:
    Pot A: Switzerland, Italy, Slovakia, Iceland
    Pot B: Sweden, Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Denmark
    Out: Wales

    A lot of questions here:
    * Can Portugal beat Switzerland and claim first place?
    * Who's going to win group I?
    * Can Ireland overtake Wales for second place?
    * Denmark or Montenegro?
    * Which S team will finish second after England?
    * Who will screw up less between Bosnia and Greece?
    * Which two teams will come up on top in group I?
    * Will Sweden and Northern Ireland overtake Iceland in the FIFA rankings come October?
    * Will the race at the bottom of the play-offs between Wales and Bosnia be decided by a single goal?

    And don't let me start with Nation League rankings ...

    ReplyDelete
  7. EdSeptember 6, 2017 at 8:54 PM

    Although I'm not Edgar, such a cry of the heart deserves a thorough answer :)

    Here are (in a few parts) the probabilities for each team in each confederation in world cup 2018 qualifying after yesterday's matches. The results of all remaining scheduled matches are determined by drawing the number of goals each team scores in a scheduled match from ClubElo's expected goals formula (a probability distribution function which uses elo's home team win expectancy as the only parameter). A set of results for all remaining scheduled matches is called a simulation.
    The presented probabilities [%] are determined after 1000 simulations.

    -- UEFA after MD8 --
    columns:
    1: group
    2: 2nd place in group is seeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    3: 2nd place in group is unseeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group is worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2

    A - 17,4 - 79,9 - 2,7
    B - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    C - 18,6 - 80,1 - 1,3
    D - 39,2 - 22,4 - 38,4
    E - 63,7 - 31,3 - 5,0
    F - 32,9 - 58,5 - 8,6
    G - 99,2 - 0,8 - 0,0
    H - 0,0 - 65,7 - 34,3
    I - 29,0 - 61,3 - 9,7

    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group
    3: 2nd place in group and seeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    4: 2nd place in group and unseeded in play-offs (based on October 2017 ranking)
    5: 2nd place in group and worst in the ranking of groupnumbers 2
    6: 3rd-6th place in group
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+0.7*col3+0.3*col4)
    8: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to 3 September 2017 (after MD7)

    Group A
    FRA - 82,9 - 15,1 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 2,0 - 93,5 - -5,4
    SWE - 16,8 - 1,3 - 74,0 - 2,1 - 5,8 - 39,9 - +18,0
    NED - 0,3 - 1,0 - 5,5 - 0,4 - 92,8 - 2,7 - -4,4
    BUL - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,4 - 0,2 - 99,4 - 0,1 - -2.2
    BLR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    LUX - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    POR - 58,2 - 41,8 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 87,5 - +3,7
    SUI - 41,8 - 58,2 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 82,5 - -3,7
    HUN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    LVA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    FRO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    AND - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group C
    GER - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - +0,1
    NIR - 0,0 - 18,6 - 80,1 - 1,3 - 0,0 - 37,1 - +6,0
    CZE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - -1,8
    NOR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    AZE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    SMR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group D
    SRB - 92,1 - 0,0 - 5,3 - 2,6 - 0,0 - 93,7 - +31,2
    WAL - 6,5 - 39,2 - 0,0 - 23,4 - 30,9 - 33,9 - +3,0
    IRL - 1,4 - 0,0 - 17,1 - 12,4 - 69,1 - 6,5 - -33,7
    AUT - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - -0,3
    GEO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    MDA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group E
    POL - 82,3 - 14,7 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 3,0 - 92,6 - -2,4
    DEN - 10,8 - 49,0 - 8,3 - 2,5 - 29,4 - 47,6 - +5,8
    MNE - 6,9 - 0,0 - 23,0 - 2,5 - 67,6 - 13,8 - +2,9
    ROU - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - -1,7
    ARM - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    KAZ - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group F
    ENG - 99,4 - 0,6 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 99,8 - +4,5
    SVK - 0,6 - 32,3 - 37,4 - 6,7 - 23,0 - 34,4 - -19,0
    SCO - 0,0 - 0,0 - 16,9 - 1,4 - 81,7 - 5,1 - +1,2
    SVN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 4,2 - 0,5 - 95,3 - 1,3 - +0,6
    LTU - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    MLT - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group G
    ESP - 98,4 - 1,6 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 99,5 - +0,4
    ITA - 1,6 - 97,6 - 0,8 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 70,2 - -0,3
    ALB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - -0,1
    ISR - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    MKD - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    LIE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    ReplyDelete
  8. EdSeptember 6, 2017 at 8:55 PM

    Group H
    BEL - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - +0,3
    GRE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 39,0 - 15,8 - 45,2 - 11,7 - -7,1
    BIH - 0,0 - 0,0 - 26,7 - 18,4 - 54,9 - 8,0 - +1,8
    CYP - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,1 - 99,9 - 0,0 - -0,1
    EST - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    GIB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group I
    CRO - 47,0 - 13,2 - 6,0 - 4,3 - 29,5 - 58,0 - -15,6
    ISL - 29,1 - 0,1 - 38,0 - 2,2 - 30,6 - 40,6 - +21,3
    UKR - 16,0 - 0,4 - 14,8 - 1,4 - 67,4 - 20,7 - -16,0
    TUR - 7,9 - 15,3 - 2,5 - 1,8 - 72,5 - 19,4 - +12,9
    FIN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    KOS - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Highest probability to be seeded in play-offs
    ITA 97,6 (G)
    SUI 58,2 (B)
    DEN 49,0 (E)
    POR 41,8 (B)
    WAL 39,2 (D)

    Highest probability to be unseeded in play-offs
    NIR 80,1 (C)
    SWE 74,0 (A)
    GRE 39,0 (H)
    ISL 38,0 (I)
    SVK 37,4 (F)

    Highest probability to be worst nr 2 over all groups
    WAL 23,4 (D) it's all (seeded) or nothing (worst nr 2) for Wales :)
    BIH 18,4 (G)
    GRE 15,8 (G)
    IRL 12,4 (D)
    SVK 6,7 (F)
    CRO 4,3 (I)

    -- CAF after MD4 --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st place in group (= total probability to qualify for WC2018)
    3: 2nd-4th place in group
    4: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to September 2017 (after MD3)

    Group A
    TUN - 81,3 - 18,7 - +17,3
    COD - 18,7 - 81,3 - -14,6
    GUI - 0,0 - 100,0 - -2,6
    LBY - 0,0 - 100,0 - -0,1

    Group B
    NGA - 93,6 - 6,4 - -0,2
    ZAM - 6,4 - 93,6 - +2,7
    ALG - 0,0 - 100,0 - -0,4
    CMR - 0,0 - 100,0 - -2,1

    Group C
    CIV - 59,8 - 40,2 - -16,1
    MAR - 35,6 - 64,4 - +12,8
    GAB - 4,6 - 95,4 - +3,6
    MLI - 0,0 - 100,0 - -0,3

    Group D
    BFA - 45,4 - 54,6 - +0,6
    SEN - 33,9 - 66,1 - +2,7
    CPV - 13,1 - 86,9 - +11,1
    RSA - 7,6 - 92,4 - -14,4

    Group E
    EGY - 81,4 - 18,6 - +18,0
    UGA - 12,8 - 87,2 - -20,4
    GHA - 5,8 - 94,2 - +3,0
    CGO - 0,0 - 100,0 - -0,6

    -- AFC after MD10 --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-2nd place in group
    3: 3rd place in group
    4: 4th-6th place in group
    5: winner 5th place play-off
    6: winner 5th place play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    8: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col7/col5)
    9: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col7)
    10: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to September 2017 (after MD9)

    Group A
    IRN - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    KOR - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - +26,6
    SYR - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 37,1 - 37,1 - 18,3 - 49,3 - 18,3 - +1,6
    UZB - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - -38,8
    CHN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - -0,7
    QAT - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    Group B
    JPN - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    KSA - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - +55,8
    AUS - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 62,9 - 62,9 - 40,6 - 64,5 - 40,6 - -38,4
    UAE - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    IRQ - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    THA - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    ReplyDelete
  9. EdSeptember 6, 2017 at 8:55 PM

    -- CONCACAF after MD8 --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-3rd place in group
    3: 4th place in group
    4: 5th-6th place in group
    5: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONCACAF-AFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)
    8: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to September 2017 (after MD7)

    Hexagonal
    MEX - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    CRC - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - +0,3
    USA - 60,4 - 30,0 - 9,6 - 15,1 - 50,3 - 75,5 - -3,4
    PAN - 36,0 - 48,1 - 15,9 - 18,4 - 38,3 - 54,4 - +9,2
    HON - 3,6 - 21,9 - 74,5 - 7,6 - 34,7 - 11,2 - -11,8
    TRI - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0

    -- OFC --
    NZL to play-off against CONMEBOL nr. 5

    -- CONMEBOL after MD16 --
    columns:
    1: team
    2: 1st-4th place in group
    3: 5th place in group
    4: 6th-10th place in group
    5: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off
    6: winner CONMEBOL-OFC intercontinental play-off, given a team is in that play-off (100*col5/col3)
    7: total probability to qualify for WC2018 (col2+col5)
    8: difference (in %-points) in total probability to qualify for WC2018, compared to September 2017 (after MD15)

    Group
    BRA - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0
    URU - 99,4 - 0,6 - 0,0 - 0,6 - 100,0 - 100,0 - +11,5
    COL - 90,9 - 5,0 - 4,1 - 4,5 - 90,0 - 95,4 - +6,0
    ARG - 64,4 - 17,8 - 17,8 - 16,7 - 93,8 - 81,1 - -8,9
    PER - 32,4 - 27,4 - 40,2 - 23,9 - 87,2 - 56,3 - +37,0
    CHI - 11,9 - 36,0 - 52,1 - 31,5 - 87,5 - 43,4 - -18,4
    ECU - 0,5 - 7,3 - 92,2 - 5,8 - 79,5 - 6,3 - -10,5
    PAR - 0,5 - 5,9 - 93,6 - 4,6 - 78,0 - 5,1 - -14,4
    BOL - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
    VEN - 0,0 - 0,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 0,0


    -- winner intercontinental play-offs --
    CONCACAF 41,1 - AFC 58,9
    CONMEBOL 87,6 - OFC 12,4

    ReplyDelete
  10. EdSeptember 6, 2017 at 8:56 PM

    And the static elo-prediction:

    -- UEFA --
    After MD8 (of 10) of the European qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 9 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: France
    B: Portugal
    C: Germany
    D: Serbia
    E: Poland
    F: England
    G: Spain
    H: Belgium
    I: Croatia

    and as 8 best group numbers 2 (ordered by October 2017 ranking)
    D: Wales
    B: Switzerland
    G: Italy
    I: Turkey
    E: Denmark
    F: Slovakia
    C: Northern Ireland
    H: Greece
    Sweden from group A is worst group number 2.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD6:
    Serbia is group winner in D instead of Republic of Ireland
    Croatia is group winner in I instead of Iceland
    Turkey (instead of Croatia) is a seeded number 2
    Denmark is no longer worst number two and becomes an unseeded number 2
    Greece (instead of Bosnia-Herzegovina) is an unseeded number 2
    Sweden becomes the worst number two

    -- CAF --
    After MD4 (of 6) of the third round of African qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 5 countries to qualify as group-winner:
    A: Tunisia
    B: Nigeria
    C: Cote d'Ivoire
    D: Senegal
    E: Egypt

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD2:
    Tunisia (instead of Congo DR) as group winner in group A
    Nigeria (instead of Cameroon) as group winner in group B

    -- AFC --
    After MD10 (of 10) of the third round of Asian qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    A: Iran and Korea Republic are qualified
    B: Japan and Saudi Arabia are qualified
    Syria from group A and Australia from group B qualify for the 5th-place play-off. Australia qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Panama.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD8.
    Saudi Arabia qualified instead of Australia, who qualifies for the 5th-place play-off
    Syria is third in group A instead of Uzbekistan

    -- CONCACAF --
    After MD8 (of 10) of the hexagonal in CONCACAF qualifying for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts the following 3 countries to qualify:
    Mexico, Costa Rica and USA.
    Panama at fourth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against Australia.

    No changes compared to the prediction after MD6.

    -- CONMEBOL --
    After MD16 (of 18) of the South American qualifying campaign for Russia WC 2018 elo predicts:
    Brazil is qualified, Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina to qualify.
    Chile at fifth place qualifies for the intercontinental play-off against New Zealand.

    Changes compared to the prediction after MD14.
    Uruguay becomes second in the group while Chile drops to 5th place

    -- OFC --
    New Zealand is qualified for the intercontinental play-off against Chile.

    -- intercontinental play-offs --
    Australia qualifies for Russia WC 2018.
    Chile qualifies for Russia WC 2018.

    Changes compared to the previous prediction:
    Australia instead of Panama.
    Chile instead of Uruguay.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 7, 2017 at 1:11 AM

      Great job Ed. I very much want to thank you for the work you put in.

      Could you add the probabilities for the top seeds in the final World Cup draw? Unless FIFA alters the procedure I'm expecting it to be based on the October 2017 ranking.

      Delete
    2. EdSeptember 7, 2017 at 12:06 PM

      Edgar will give these probabilities soon, I think. I can give you this:

      With elo-predicted results (in parentheses: w-win d-draw l-loss) for each team's two scheduled matches until the October ranking this is the predicted top-20 of the October 2017 ranking at the moment:

      1 Brazil 1689 (w-w)
      2 Germany 1631 (w-w)
      3 Argentina 1539 (w-w)
      4 Portugal 1446 (w-w)
      5 Belgium 1333 (w-w)
      6 Poland 1324 (w-w)
      7 Wales 1250 (w-w)
      8 France 1226 (w-w)
      9 Spain 1218 (w-w)
      10 Colombia 1205 (w-d)
      11 Chile 1174 (w-l)
      12 Switzerland 1134 (w-l)
      13 England 1115 (w-w)
      14 Italy 1114 (w-w)
      15 Peru 1111 (l-d)
      16 Mexico 1092 (w-w)
      17 Uruguay 1034 (d-w)
      18 Turkey 1015 (w-w)
      19 Denmark 999 (d-w)
      20 Croatia 986 (w-d)

      Delete
    3. AnonymousSeptember 7, 2017 at 2:41 PM

      Great job Ed, thank you very much. So the seeds at the WC would be Russia-Bra-Ger-Arg-Por-Bel-Pol-Wal? And France-Spain-Eng-Ita would be in the european pot. As I am spanish I hope Wales to lose the play off and France to draw on of their two matches left. There could be really hard (and weak) groups at the WC: Germany-Spain/France-Mexico/USA-Uruguay/Chile or Wales-Slovakia-Australia-Tunisia

      Thanks

      Delete
    4. AnonymousSeptember 8, 2017 at 1:25 AM

      Does Italy lose a lot of spaces if it does not win one of the two remaining October games? What if it does not win both?

      Thank you in advance.

      Delete
    5. EdSeptember 8, 2017 at 8:55 AM

      win MKD - win ALB: 1114
      win MKD - draw ALB: 1047
      win MKD - loss ALB: 1014

      draw MKD - win ALB: 1066
      draw MKD - draw ALB: 999
      draw MKD - loss ALB: 966

      loss MKD - win ALB: 1042
      loss MKD - draw ALB: 975
      loss MKD - loss ALB: 942

      Delete
    6. Egyptian FanSeptember 8, 2017 at 6:09 PM

      Thanks Ed for the great effort.

      What if Columbia (w-w) and chile (W-W) or (W-D) will they definitely pass france and spain even if france and spain had a (w-w) in october?

      Delete
    7. EdSeptember 8, 2017 at 9:32 PM

      Yes, two wins is enough for both to overtake Spain and France (and Wales):

      COL (w-w): 1290
      CHI (w-w): 1256

      CHI (w-d): 1201

      Delete
  11. AnonymousSeptember 7, 2017 at 5:31 AM

    Ed, thank you very much. This does not ease my worries, but at least let me know how things are (for Sweden). Great job, really apreciated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarSeptember 8, 2017 at 12:38 PM

      Hear, hear! I second that - great job indeed, Ed!

      Delete