The usual 10000 simulations. The coefficient will not include the play-offs.
Hats off to Finland for playing fair!
League D
100% - Faroe Islands
100% - Latvia
100% - Luxembourg
100% - Kazakhstan
100% - Moldova
100% - Liechtenstein
100% - Malta
100% - Kosovo
100% - Andorra
100% - San Marino
100% - Gibraltar
99.96% - FYR Macedonia
99.52% - Armenia
95.31% - Georgia
93.33% - Belarus
54.08% - Azerbaijan
53.48% - Lithuania
4.32% - Estonia
League C
100% - Greece
100% - Norway
100% - Bulgaria
100% - Israel
100% - Finland
100% - Cyprus
99.3% - Albania
99.08% - Montenegro
98.16% - Serbia
95.68% - Estonia
95.39% - Scotland
92.97% - Slovenia
88.24% - Romania
53.33% - Czech Republic
46.52% - Lithuania
45.92% - Azerbaijan
39.68% - Hungary
20.93% - Denmark
6.67% - Belarus
6.38% - Turkey
5.67% - Republic of Ireland
4.69% - Georgia
0.48% - Armenia
0.46% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.33% - Austria
0.05% - Ukraine
0.04% - FYR Macedonia
0.03% - Northern Ireland
League B
98.09% - Northern Ireland
97.19% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
96.44% - Austria
94.4% - Russia
94.33% - Republic of Ireland
93.62% - Turkey
92.69% - Sweden
91.64% - Ukraine
85.13% - Slovakia
79.07% - Denmark
76.49% - Netherlands
60.32% - Hungary
53.03% - Wales
46.67% - Czech Republic
11.76% - Romania
10.09% - Iceland
7.03% - Slovenia
4.61% - Scotland
2.73% - Croatia
1.84% - Serbia
1.21% - France
0.92% - Montenegro
0.7% - Albania
League A
100% - Germany
100% - Portugal
100% - Belgium
100% - Spain
100% - England
100% - Switzerland
100% - Italy
100% - Poland
98.79% - France
97.27% - Croatia
89.91% - Iceland
46.97% - Wales
23.51% - Netherlands
14.87% - Slovakia
8.31% - Ukraine
7.31% - Sweden
5.6% - Russia
3.23% - Austria
2.35% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.88% - Northern Ireland
Sorting teams by the average league:
Austria dropped to League B, replaced by Wales.
Czech Republic dropped to League C, replaced by Denmark.
League A
Pot 1: Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Spain
Pot 2: England, Switzerland, Italy, Poland
Pot 3: France, Croatia, Iceland, Wales
League B
Pot 1: Netherlands, Slovakia, Ukraine, Sweden
Pot 2: Russia, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Ireland
Pot 3: Republic of Ireland, Turkey, Denmark, Hungary
League C
Pot 1: Czech Republic, Romania, Slovenia, Scotland
Pot 2: Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Greece
Pot 3: Norway, Bulgaria, Israel, Finland
Pot 4: Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania
League D
Pot 1: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia
Pot 2: FYR Macedonia, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Luxembourg
Pot 3: Kazakhstan, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta
Pot 4: Kosovo, Andorra, San Marino, Gibraltar
I know the simulations are only based on poisson ELO model, but in practice I believe Wales chances are higher to get to League A, since a last match draw would probably be bad for both them and Ireland -
ReplyDeleteThey will probably be worst RU
I taught that for UEFA Nations League they will use NOV 2017 ranking? Why Serbia only has just 2 percent chance being in B league if they are already there, being 20th European league on the list?
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like it will be the October 2017 ranking: "...Team Coefficient Rankings following the end of the European Qualifiers for the 2018 FIFA World Cup (as per 11 October 2017, play-off results will not be included)" - http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/news/newsid=2498274.html
DeleteZoran,
ReplyDeleteit is the October 2017 ranking that will be used as seeding instrument for the Nations League (see the link that Anon provied).
But not the FIFA-ranking (where Serbia is indeed 20th european nation yet) but the UEFA National Team Coefficient ranking where Serbia is 28th at the moment. The Nations League is an UEFA competition, so UEFA uses their own ranking to seed the teams.
I should have added that to avoid confusion but the quote and the link seemed adequate.
DeleteAlso, I noticed that Poland are in pot 2 while France are in pot 3. They should have won against Luxembourg I guess. However another site had France in pot 2 and Poland in pot 3. Most likely it's because they use a different method but maybe France not having to qualify for Euro2016 also plays a part?
The NT-ranking after the October matches can have only one solution, no matter what method is used to calculate intermediate NT-rankings. And in that solution the missing qualification results of France for EURO 2016 are substituted with their World Cup 2018 qualification results (without eventual play-off results, that is) conform the regulations. And the missing qualification results of Russia for WC 2018 are just left blank.
DeleteCrap. Thanks for explanation.
ReplyDeleteEd or Edgar could you add the probabilities for the top seeds in League A, please?
ReplyDeleteAfter 1.000 simulations.
Deletecolumn 1: team
column 2: League A
column 3: league A pot 1
column 4: league A pot 2
column 5: league A pot 3
GER - 100,0 - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,0
POR - 100,0 - 99,4 - 0,6 - 0,0
BEL - 100,0 - 94,8 - 5,2 - 0,0
ESP - 100,0 - 78,8 - 21,2 - 0,0
FRA - 100,0 - 22,0 - 77,7 - 0,3
ENG - 100,0 - 4,4 - 95,6 - 0,0
SUI - 100,0 - 0,4 - 99,6 - 0,0
ITA - 100,0 - 0,2 - 99,8 - 0,0
POL - 100,0 - 0,0 - 0,3 - 99,7
CRO - 96,8 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 96,8
ISL - 90,0 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 90,0
WAL - 48,5 - 0,0 - 0,0 - 48,5
Hello Ed/Edgar
ReplyDeleteWhat would be the Armenian odds for getting into Division D if they win against Poland the day after tomorrow?
Also Edgar, when will you start using betting odds instead of the Elo ranking? (altough I probably see that there are multiple reasons for you not to use them even though it would make the predictions more accurate)
Since odds are obviously only exists for the scheduled matches (and not the playoffs for example), I think it makes sense to use ELO ratings
DeleteThank you Amir!
ReplyDeleteAfter MD9 of EUFA WCQ
ReplyDeleteFrance, Croatia and Iceland have sealed their place in League A
- Wales, Netherlands, Sweden, Ukraine, Austria will battle it out for the 12th and last League A spot on EUFA WCQ MD10 competition
Slovakia, Russia, B-H, N Ireland and Ireland become the first teams to lock in League B places
- they will be joined by 4 of the above teams who miss out on League A
- they will also be joined by 3 of Denmark, Turkey, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Scotland and Slovenia following EUFA WCQ MD10 competition
Albania, Montenegro, Serbia and Estonia join the teams qualified for League C
- they will be joined by 4 of the above teams who miss out on League B
- they will also be joined by 1 of Lithuania, Azerbaijan and Belarus following EUFA WCQ MD10 competition where they face England, Germany and France respectively
Georgia, Armenia and Macedonia join the teams already qualified for League D
- they will be joined by 2 of the above teams who miss out on League C
My data was based on tables of W/D/L results from http://www.footballseeding.com/tournaments/uefa-nations-league-2018-2019/scenarios/
ReplyDeleteThe October UEFA NT-ranking (which decides the seeding for the UEFA Nations League 2018-2019)
ReplyDeleteLeague A pot 1
Germany
Portugal
Belgium
Spain
League A pot 2
France
England
Switzerland
Italy
League A pot 3
Poland
Iceland
Croatia
Netherlands
League B pot 1
Austria
Wales
Russia
Slovakia
League B pot 2
Sweden
Ukraine
Republic of Ireland
Bosnia-Herzegovina
League B pot 3
Northern Ireland
Denmark
Czech Republic
Turkey
League C pot 1
Hungary
Romania
Scotland
Slovenia
League C pot 2
Greece
Serbia
Albania
Norway
League C pot 3
Montenegro
Israel
Bulgaria
Finland
League C pot 4
Cyprus
Estonia
Lithuania
League D pot 1
Azerbaijan
FYR Macedonia
Belarus
Georgia
League D pot 2
Armenia
Latvia
Faroe Islands
Luxembourg
League D pot 3
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Liechtenstein
Malta
League D pot 4
Andorra
Kosovo
San Marino
Gibraltar