FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 November. India vs. Macau was not included in the October calculation, but I expect it to be included in the November edition.
This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:
Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank
| Estonia | 394 | 407 | 89 | 84 |
| Fiji | 93 | 141 | 177 | 155 |
In the table below I've used the minimum points.
Best movers:
18 - Korea DPR
13 - Lebanon
11 - Burkina Faso, Indonesia
Worst movers:
-22 - Laos
-19 - Chad
-16 - Israel
Best movers in the top 50:
11 - Burkina Faso
10 - Austria
9 - Senegal
Worst movers in the top 50:
-11 - Japan
-9 - Turkey, Nigeria
-7 - Bulgaria, Panama
Four teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Senegal (23 - 26 in June 2004)
Palestine (82 - 84 in October 2017)
Luxembourg (84 - 93 in October 2017)
Chinese Taipei (135 - 143 in October 2017)
Two will return to their worst ever placing:
Israel (98 - 98 in September 2016)
Malaysia (at most 174 - 174 in May 2016)
I suspect the FIFA ranking consultant left Malaysia for greener pastures :)
Three will drop to new lows.
Lithuania (148 - 145 in October 2017)
Kuwait (188 - 186 in October 2017)
Sri Lanka (200 - 198 in October 2017)
Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:
Lebanon (at least 87 - 85 in December 1998) - 18 years and 11 months
Turkmenistan (112 - 112 in November 2005) - 12 years
Morocco (40 - 37 in September 2008) - 9 years and 2 months
Djibouti (183 - 182 in September 2008) - 9 years and 2 months
Denmark (12 - 10 in September 2012) - 5 years and 2 months
Paraguay (30 - 29 in September 2012) - 5 years and 2 months
Iraq (79 - 78 in September 2012) - 5 years and 2 months
Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:
Botswana (150 - 153 in December 2001) - 15 years and 11 months
Uruguay (21 - 21 in February 2010) - 7 years and 9 months
Slovenia (69 - 73 in October 2008) - 9 years and 1 month
Ecuador (71 - 72 in September 2010) - 7 years and 2 months
Uzbekistan (80 - 82 in August 2011) - 6 years and 3 months
Equatorial Guinea (145 - 151 in January 2012) - 5 years and 10 months
Laos (184 - 193 in October 2012) - 5 years and 1 month
Cambodia will be ranked above Malaysia for the first time ever.
Lebanon, Luxembourg and Palestine will be ranked above Israel for the first time ever.
Denmark will be ranked above England for the first time in the last 17 years and 7 months.
November 2017 rank - Team - November 2017 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Germany | 1602 | 0 | -29 |
| 2 | Brazil | 1483 | 0 | -136 |
| 3 | Portugal | 1358 | 0 | -88 |
| 4 | Argentina | 1348 | 0 | -97 |
| 5 | Belgium | 1325 | 0 | -8 |
| 6 | Spain | 1231 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Poland | 1209 | -1 | -114 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 1190 | 3 | 56 |
| 9 | France | 1183 | -2 | -43 |
| 10 | Chile | 1162 | -1 | -11 |
| 11 | Peru | 1128 | -1 | -32 |
| 12 | Denmark | 1099 | 7 | 98 |
| 13 | Colombia | 1078 | 0 | -17 |
| 14 | Italy | 1052 | 1 | -14 |
| 15 | England | 1047 | -3 | -69 |
| 16 | Mexico | 1032 | 0 | -28 |
| 17 | Croatia | 1018 | 1 | 5 |
| 18 | Sweden | 998 | 7 | 126 |
| 19 | Wales | 985 | -5 | -87 |
| 20 | Netherlands | 952 | 0 | 21 |
| 21 | Uruguay | 924 | -4 | -110 |
| 22 | Iceland | 910 | -1 | -10 |
| 23 | Senegal | 884 | 9 | 69 |
| 24 | Northern Ireland | 867 | -1 | -22 |
| 24 | USA | 867 | 3 | 24 |
| 26 | Costa Rica | 850 | -4 | -64 |
| 27 | Tunisia | 838 | 1 | 4 |
| 28 | Slovakia | 817 | -4 | -68 |
| 29 | Austria | 815 | 10 | 70 |
| 30 | Paraguay | 812 | 6 | 62 |
| 31 | Egypt | 805 | -1 | -13 |
| 32 | Iran | 798 | 2 | 14 |
| 32 | Republic of Ireland | 798 | -6 | -68 |
| 32 | Scotland | 798 | -3 | -23 |
| 35 | Ukraine | 781 | -5 | -37 |
| 36 | Congo DR | 764 | -1 | 13 |
| 37 | Serbia | 756 | 1 | 8 |
| 38 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 753 | 2 | 9 |
| 39 | Australia | 747 | 4 | 33 |
| 40 | Morocco | 738 | 8 | 58 |
| 41 | Romania | 737 | 4 | 32 |
| 42 | Turkey | 735 | -9 | -72 |
| 43 | Bulgaria | 719 | -7 | -31 |
| 44 | Burkina Faso | 705 | 11 | 66 |
| 45 | Cameroon | 696 | -3 | -22 |
| 46 | Montenegro | 681 | 8 | 41 |
| 47 | Greece | 680 | 0 | -2 |
| 48 | Czech Republic | 677 | -2 | -22 |
| 49 | Bolivia | 674 | 1 | 10 |
| 50 | Nigeria | 671 | -9 | -50 |
| 51 | Ghana | 657 | 1 | 6 |
| 52 | Venezuela | 639 | -1 | -24 |
| 53 | Hungary | 630 | 0 | -12 |
| 54 | Jamaica | 625 | 5 | 11 |
| 55 | Japan | 623 | -11 | -88 |
| 56 | Panama | 621 | -7 | -49 |
| 57 | Haiti | 607 | -1 | -20 |
| 58 | Norway | 573 | 0 | -47 |
| 59 | Korea Republic | 563 | 3 | -25 |
| 60 | China PR | 561 | -3 | -65 |
| 61 | Côte d'Ivoire | 557 | 0 | -43 |
| 62 | Albania | 553 | 9 | 55 |
| 63 | Saudi Arabia | 539 | 0 | -37 |
| 64 | Algeria | 537 | 3 | -3 |
| 65 | Russia | 534 | 0 | -29 |
| 66 | Guinea | 532 | 0 | -20 |
| 67 | Finland | 531 | 7 | 58 |
| 68 | Cape Verde Islands | 530 | -4 | -38 |
| 69 | Slovenia | 522 | -1 | -2 |
| 70 | Honduras | 521 | -1 | 11 |
| 71 | Ecuador | 508 | -11 | -100 |
| 72 | Mali | 493 | 0 | 5 |
| 73 | United Arab Emirates | 474 | -1 | -14 |
| 74 | Uganda | 471 | -4 | -32 |
| 75 | Zambia | 449 | 2 | -1 |
| 76 | FYR Macedonia | 446 | 9 | 36 |
| 77 | Libya | 442 | 10 | 35 |
| 77 | Syria | 442 | 0 | -8 |
| 79 | Iraq | 438 | 1 | 9 |
| 80 | Uzbekistan | 437 | -4 | -33 |
| 81 | South Africa | 434 | -7 | -39 |
| 82 | Benin | 427 | -3 | -11 |
| 82 | Palestine | 427 | 2 | 9 |
| 84 | Curaçao | 407 | 5 | 5 |
| 84 | Luxembourg | 407 | 9 | 39 |
| 86 | Lebanon | 404 | 14 | 52 |
| 87 | Guinea-Bissau | 403 | 1 | 0 |
| 88 | Trinidad and Tobago | 402 | -5 | -17 |
| 89 | Estonia | 394 | -9 | -35 |
| 90 | Armenia | 383 | 0 | -9 |
| 91 | Cyprus | 373 | -5 | -36 |
| 92 | Belarus | 372 | -1 | -19 |
| 93 | Gabon | 370 | -1 | -14 |
| 94 | Canada | 369 | 2 | 8 |
| 95 | Faroe Islands | 364 | 0 | 1 |
| 96 | Congo | 362 | -2 | -5 |
| 97 | Sierra Leone | 360 | 2 | 2 |
| 98 | Israel | 355 | -16 | -65 |
| 99 | Mauritania | 354 | 2 | 8 |
| 100 | El Salvador | 352 | -3 | -8 |
| 101 | Oman | 350 | 9 | 50 |
| 102 | Qatar | 336 | -5 | -24 |
| 103 | Zimbabwe | 323 | 1 | -6 |
| 104 | Georgia | 322 | 3 | 16 |
| 105 | India | 320 | 0 | -8 |
| 106 | Nicaragua | 315 | 2 | 12 |
| 107 | Jordan | 311 | 6 | 30 |
| 108 | Madagascar | 309 | -5 | -23 |
| 108 | Niger | 309 | -2 | -15 |
| 110 | Mozambique | 304 | 1 | 5 |
| 111 | Kenya | 300 | -9 | -45 |
| 112 | Turkmenistan | 292 | 2 | 13 |
| 113 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 291 | -5 | -12 |
| 114 | Korea DPR | 283 | 18 | 51 |
| 115 | Bahrain | 282 | 10 | 31 |
| 115 | Kyrgyz Republic | 282 | 5 | 17 |
| 117 | Azerbaijan | 281 | -2 | 8 |
| 118 | Philippines | 280 | -2 | 8 |
| 119 | Namibia | 274 | 10 | 41 |
| 120 | Rwanda | 269 | -2 | 1 |
| 121 | Yemen | 268 | -9 | -29 |
| 122 | New Zealand | 267 | 0 | 11 |
| 123 | Central African Republic | 266 | -4 | 0 |
| 123 | Togo | 266 | 1 | 13 |
| 125 | Vietnam | 265 | -4 | 4 |
| 126 | Malawi | 260 | -9 | -11 |
| 127 | Tajikistan | 255 | -4 | 0 |
| 128 | Suriname | 245 | -3 | -6 |
| 129 | Guatemala | 242 | -1 | 8 |
| 130 | Comoros | 235 | -3 | -2 |
| 131 | Latvia | 233 | -2 | 0 |
| 132 | Thailand | 230 | 6 | 5 |
| 133 | Swaziland | 225 | 7 | 6 |
| 134 | Liberia | 224 | 1 | -6 |
| 135 | Chinese Taipei | 221 | 8 | 21 |
| 136 | Kazakhstan | 220 | -3 | -11 |
| 137 | Sudan | 219 | 4 | 1 |
| 138 | Burundi | 216 | -9 | -17 |
| 139 | Andorra | 215 | 5 | 24 |
| 140 | Antigua and Barbuda | 209 | -4 | -18 |
| 141 | Angola | 201 | -2 | -22 |
| 142 | Tanzania | 193 | -6 | -34 |
| 143 | Hong Kong | 189 | -1 | -22 |
| 144 | Lesotho | 188 | 2 | -1 |
| 145 | Equatorial Guinea | 187 | -12 | -44 |
| 145 | Ethiopia | 187 | 6 | 12 |
| 147 | Afghanistan | 181 | 7 | 13 |
| 148 | Lithuania | 179 | -3 | -11 |
| 148 | Solomon Islands | 179 | 4 | 6 |
| 150 | Botswana | 176 | -3 | -9 |
| 150 | Myanmar | 176 | 5 | 10 |
| 152 | South Sudan | 172 | 1 | 0 |
| 153 | Tahiti | 149 | -5 | -32 |
| 154 | Barbados | 144 | 6 | 16 |
| 154 | Indonesia | 144 | 11 | 27 |
| 156 | New Caledonia | 139 | -6 | -38 |
| 157 | Belize | 135 | 4 | 10 |
| 157 | Maldives | 135 | -1 | -9 |
| 159 | Mauritius | 134 | -1 | -3 |
| 160 | Grenada | 132 | -3 | -9 |
| 161 | Papua New Guinea | 126 | -2 | -4 |
| 162 | Dominican Republic | 121 | 1 | 0 |
| 163 | Gambia | 120 | 1 | 0 |
| 164 | Guyana | 117 | 1 | 0 |
| 165 | Puerto Rico | 112 | 2 | 0 |
| 166 | Dominica | 111 | 3 | 0 |
| 166 | Moldova | 111 | 1 | -1 |
| 168 | Chad | 110 | -19 | -68 |
| 169 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 99 | 3 | -5 |
| 170 | Cambodia | 98 | 0 | -12 |
| 170 | Cuba | 98 | 9 | 15 |
| 170 | Nepal | 98 | 6 | 4 |
| 170 | Singapore | 98 | 3 | -2 |
| 174 | Kosovo | 97 | 9 | 30 |
| 174 | Malaysia | 97 | -4 | -13 |
| 174 | St. Lucia | 97 | 0 | 0 |
| 177 | São Tomé e Príncipe | 94 | -1 | 0 |
| 178 | Fiji | 93 | -3 | -2 |
| 179 | Aruba | 92 | -1 | 0 |
| 180 | Bermuda | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 181 | Malta | 66 | 1 | -3 |
| 182 | Macau | 65 | -2 | -15 |
| 183 | Djibouti | 64 | 2 | 0 |
| 184 | Laos | 62 | -22 | -60 |
| 185 | Bhutan | 55 | 5 | 5 |
| 185 | Vanuatu | 55 | 3 | 4 |
| 187 | Liechtenstein | 54 | 0 | 0 |
| 188 | Kuwait | 52 | -2 | -6 |
| 189 | Seychelles | 51 | -1 | 0 |
| 190 | Brunei Darussalam | 45 | -6 | -20 |
| 191 | Guam | 43 | 0 | -3 |
| 192 | American Samoa | 38 | 1 | 0 |
| 192 | Bangladesh | 38 | 4 | 5 |
| 192 | Cook Islands | 38 | 1 | 0 |
| 192 | Samoa | 38 | 1 | 0 |
| 196 | Timor-Leste | 32 | -4 | -10 |
| 197 | US Virgin Islands | 26 | 2 | 0 |
| 198 | Montserrat | 20 | 2 | 0 |
| 199 | Mongolia | 17 | -2 | -13 |
| 200 | Sri Lanka | 16 | -2 | -11 |
| 201 | Pakistan | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Cayman Islands | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | San Marino | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| 205 | British Virgin Islands | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 206 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 206 | Bahamas | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 206 | Eritrea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 206 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 206 | Somalia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 206 | Tonga | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I think you've made a mistake there saying Uruguay are returning to their highest ranking in recent times - they were second as recently as 2011.
ReplyDeleteThose are actually worst ranking in the last couple of years. The lists should be switched. Will fix it. Thank you!
DeleteNo worries - always enjoy the site, keep up the good work!
Deletecan you tell us, how the seedings would have looked like in october, if only competitive matches would have been considered?
ReplyDeleteWhen only taking non-friendlies into account for the October 2017 ranking these would've been the pots for the World Cup 2018 draw:
Deletepot 1:
Russia (82)
Germany (1)
Brazil (2)
Portugal (3)
Argentina (4)
Belgium (5)
Poland (6)
Spain (7) (is pot 2)
France (9) (is pot 1)
England (10)
Switzerland (11)
Iceland (12) (is pot 3)
Colombia (13)
Croatia (15)
Mexico (16)
Uruguay (17)
Peru (18) (is pot 2)
Denmark (19)
Tunisia (22)
Costa Rica (25)
Iran (27)
Sweden (28)
Senegal (31)
Egypt (33)
Serbia (34)
Japan (35)
Australia (41)
Panama (43)
Nigeria (49)
Korea Republic (55)
Morocco (57)
Saudi Arabia (65)
Hardly any difference: Spain instead of France in pot 1 and Iceland instead of Peru in pot 2.
Would Poland switch pots with Spain in case they had scheduled friendlies on dates that were available to them in the highest yielding timeframe?
DeleteInstead of three friendlies Poland only played one. I believe that had Poland lost two more friendlies you can deduct 158 points. Then Poland would have 1165 points (1164.91 according to my calculation) and be ranked 10th, below Spain and Chile, on the all important October rankings.
Can you help fill in the other scenarios? E.g. in case of a loss and a draw what would be the highest ranked team Poland can get a draw from yet still fall short of Spain's 1218 points?
Could you do this for 2018:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.football-rankings.info/2017/03/applying-2026-allocations-to-2014-world.html
Done. See here.
DeleteWe can conclude now that the rescheduling of the publishing date of the all important October 2017 ranking from originally October 19th to October 16th (to accommodate the UEFA play-offs draw on October 17th) was of no influence whatsoever on the pot-distribution of the World Cup draw.
ReplyDeleteOf the qualified countries only Senegal and Egypt switched ranking places but both remained safely in pot 3.
Although I like the idea of FIFA changing their policy and basing ALL 4 pots on world rankings, I actually think the old system would produce a similar, if not better, balance on this occasion.
ReplyDeleteLet's assume they would have put the 8 "unseeded" UEFA teams in one pot, and Africa/Conmebol in another, with Concacaf/Asia in the remaining pot. With the exception of Mexico and perhaps Costa Rica, this is the weak pot. The 5 African teams seem reasonably well matched, as do the unseeded Conmebol teams, so this balances that pot nicely.
And, with the exception of Spain, there probably isn't that much too choose between the unseeded UEFA teams.
As it is, we can probably expect at least one "Group Of Death" for whoever draws Nigeria or Serbia from Pot 4. Neither of these teams are remotely among the weakest 8 of the qualifiers.
The problem, as ever, is the FIFA rankings!
BTW, Estonia will also visit Vanuatu and New Caledonia. What an impressive collection of flags theirs is going to be.
ReplyDeleteHi Edgar,
ReplyDeletethank you for the enormous work you do! I saw from the 2012 flag collecting post that you made the ranking about which country has played most opponents in the world. Saudi Arabia and Korea Republic were first with 106 opponents.
Do you have an updated top for that? I counted that Estonia should have now some 89 countries.
89 in 3 days time.
DeleteSaudi Arabia 112 611
Korea Republic 111 880
China PR 108 550
Egypt 108 649
Iran 105 521
Japan 104 639
Morocco 100 523
Tunisia 100 565
Cameroon 95 475
South Africa 91 383
Australia 91 500
can u tell me about meaning this words "I suspect the FIFA ranking consultant left Malaysia for greener pastures :)" ???
ReplyDeleteFAM announced in July they hired a FIFA ranking consultant and yet they returned to their worst ever ranking.
DeleteFun fact: The 2018 World Cup will be opened by the two lowest-ranked teams participating: Russia and Saudi Arabia.
ReplyDeleteEdgar - will you be doing a World Cup simulation now that groups have been drawn or will it be closer to the tournament ??
ReplyDelete