2018 FIFA World Cup simulations

100000 simulations. For the impact of the draw, see here.

First the average group stage points.

Russia         4.5975
Uruguay        4.4868
Egypt          2.5912
Saudi Arabia   2.1041
---------------------
Portugal       6.149
Spain          5.8439
Iran           3.6404
Morocco        2.5701
---------------------
France         6.0933
Peru           4.6382
Denmark        3.8243
Australia      2.9553
---------------------
Argentina      5.9585
Croatia        4.4249
Iceland        3.6054
Nigeria        2.5877
---------------------
Brazil         6.9388
Switzerland    4.4711
Serbia         3.1970
Costa Rica     3.1393
---------------------
Germany        6.9467
Mexico         4.2374
Sweden         3.7113
Korea Republic 2.8566
---------------------
Belgium        5.6199
England        5.0282
Panama         2.4826
Tunisia        2.3522
---------------------
Colombia       4.9833
Poland         4.8748
Senegal        3.2908
Japan          3.0835

Advancing from the group:

Brazil	92.07
Germany	91.621
Belgium	82.605
England	81.512
Argentina	81.339
France	78.45
Uruguay	77.184
Portugal	74.392
Spain	72.411
Russia	69.201
Colombia	65.829
Poland	59.879
Peru	51
Croatia	49.819
Denmark	48.844
Switzerland	46.819
Mexico	42.937
Japan	41.147
Iceland	39.376
Sweden	39.136
Iran	38.088
Serbia	36.123
Senegal	33.145
Egypt	32.094
Nigeria	29.466
Korea Republic	26.306
Costa Rica	24.988
Australia	21.706
Saudi Arabia	21.521
Panama	19.408
Tunisia	16.475
Morocco	15.109

Reaching the quarter finals:

Brazil	73.688
Germany	59.861
England	56.744
France	56.485
Belgium	55.529
Spain	49.359
Portugal	49.141
Argentina	41.817
Uruguay	37.709
Colombia	30.21
Peru	30.165
Russia	27.557
Denmark	27.328
Poland	22.31
Switzerland	20.21
Iran	17.679
Croatia	16.64
Serbia	13.148
Japan	11.863
Iceland	11.616
Mexico	11.097
Senegal	9.745
Australia	9.384
Sweden	9.205
Egypt	8.781
Costa Rica	8.057
Panama	7.65
Nigeria	6.565
Tunisia	5.949
Morocco	5.081
Korea Republic	4.734
Saudi Arabia	4.693

Reaching the semifinals:

Brazil	59.287
Germany	48.702
Spain	34.462
Portugal	32.989
France	28.466
Uruguay	20.264
Argentina	19.586
England	17.619
Belgium	16.745
Russia	12.92
Switzerland	12.174
Peru	11.764
Denmark	10.04
Colombia	9.379
Iran	9.004
Serbia	6.822
Mexico	6.329
Croatia	5.94
Poland	5.594
Sweden	5.038
Costa Rica	4.002
Iceland	3.721
Egypt	3.184
Australia	2.565
Korea Republic	2.269
Japan	2.245
Morocco	2.073
Senegal	1.933
Nigeria	1.662
Saudi Arabia	1.36
Panama	1.113
Tunisia	0.749

Reaching the final:

Brazil	35.471
Germany	27.751
Spain	20.829
Portugal	19.363
France	15.896
Argentina	11.407
Uruguay	9.247
England	7.171
Belgium	6.746
Peru	5.673
Russia	5.19
Denmark	4.553
Switzerland	4.401
Iran	3.936
Colombia	3.604
Croatia	2.723
Mexico	2.176
Serbia	2.036
Poland	1.837
Sweden	1.591
Iceland	1.548
Costa Rica	1.136
Egypt	0.975
Australia	0.947
Morocco	0.676
Japan	0.649
Korea Republic	0.613
Nigeria	0.593
Senegal	0.528
Saudi Arabia	0.366
Panama	0.231
Tunisia	0.137

Winning the World Cup:

 

Brazil	24.289
Germany	14.749
Spain	10.543
Portugal	9.048
France	8.854
Argentina	5.054
Uruguay	4.147
England	3.391
Belgium	3.106
Peru	2.347
Russia	1.938
Denmark	1.842
Switzerland	1.604
Colombia	1.424
Iran	1.413
Croatia	1.056
Mexico	0.806
Serbia	0.69
Poland	0.622
Iceland	0.566
Sweden	0.56
Costa Rica	0.356
Australia	0.293
Egypt	0.264
Morocco	0.2
Nigeria	0.189
Korea Republic	0.171
Japan	0.166
Senegal	0.149
Saudi Arabia	0.074
Panama	0.053
Tunisia	0.036

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.