First the average group stage points.
Russia 4.5975 Uruguay 4.4868 Egypt 2.5912 Saudi Arabia 2.1041 --------------------- Portugal 6.149 Spain 5.8439 Iran 3.6404 Morocco 2.5701 --------------------- France 6.0933 Peru 4.6382 Denmark 3.8243 Australia 2.9553 --------------------- Argentina 5.9585 Croatia 4.4249 Iceland 3.6054 Nigeria 2.5877 --------------------- Brazil 6.9388 Switzerland 4.4711 Serbia 3.1970 Costa Rica 3.1393 --------------------- Germany 6.9467 Mexico 4.2374 Sweden 3.7113 Korea Republic 2.8566 --------------------- Belgium 5.6199 England 5.0282 Panama 2.4826 Tunisia 2.3522 --------------------- Colombia 4.9833 Poland 4.8748 Senegal 3.2908 Japan 3.0835
Advancing from the group:
| Brazil | 92.07 |
| Germany | 91.621 |
| Belgium | 82.605 |
| England | 81.512 |
| Argentina | 81.339 |
| France | 78.45 |
| Uruguay | 77.184 |
| Portugal | 74.392 |
| Spain | 72.411 |
| Russia | 69.201 |
| Colombia | 65.829 |
| Poland | 59.879 |
| Peru | 51 |
| Croatia | 49.819 |
| Denmark | 48.844 |
| Switzerland | 46.819 |
| Mexico | 42.937 |
| Japan | 41.147 |
| Iceland | 39.376 |
| Sweden | 39.136 |
| Iran | 38.088 |
| Serbia | 36.123 |
| Senegal | 33.145 |
| Egypt | 32.094 |
| Nigeria | 29.466 |
| Korea Republic | 26.306 |
| Costa Rica | 24.988 |
| Australia | 21.706 |
| Saudi Arabia | 21.521 |
| Panama | 19.408 |
| Tunisia | 16.475 |
| Morocco | 15.109 |
Reaching the quarter finals:
| Brazil | 73.688 |
| Germany | 59.861 |
| England | 56.744 |
| France | 56.485 |
| Belgium | 55.529 |
| Spain | 49.359 |
| Portugal | 49.141 |
| Argentina | 41.817 |
| Uruguay | 37.709 |
| Colombia | 30.21 |
| Peru | 30.165 |
| Russia | 27.557 |
| Denmark | 27.328 |
| Poland | 22.31 |
| Switzerland | 20.21 |
| Iran | 17.679 |
| Croatia | 16.64 |
| Serbia | 13.148 |
| Japan | 11.863 |
| Iceland | 11.616 |
| Mexico | 11.097 |
| Senegal | 9.745 |
| Australia | 9.384 |
| Sweden | 9.205 |
| Egypt | 8.781 |
| Costa Rica | 8.057 |
| Panama | 7.65 |
| Nigeria | 6.565 |
| Tunisia | 5.949 |
| Morocco | 5.081 |
| Korea Republic | 4.734 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.693 |
Reaching the semifinals:
| Brazil | 59.287 |
| Germany | 48.702 |
| Spain | 34.462 |
| Portugal | 32.989 |
| France | 28.466 |
| Uruguay | 20.264 |
| Argentina | 19.586 |
| England | 17.619 |
| Belgium | 16.745 |
| Russia | 12.92 |
| Switzerland | 12.174 |
| Peru | 11.764 |
| Denmark | 10.04 |
| Colombia | 9.379 |
| Iran | 9.004 |
| Serbia | 6.822 |
| Mexico | 6.329 |
| Croatia | 5.94 |
| Poland | 5.594 |
| Sweden | 5.038 |
| Costa Rica | 4.002 |
| Iceland | 3.721 |
| Egypt | 3.184 |
| Australia | 2.565 |
| Korea Republic | 2.269 |
| Japan | 2.245 |
| Morocco | 2.073 |
| Senegal | 1.933 |
| Nigeria | 1.662 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.36 |
| Panama | 1.113 |
| Tunisia | 0.749 |
Reaching the final:
| Brazil | 35.471 |
| Germany | 27.751 |
| Spain | 20.829 |
| Portugal | 19.363 |
| France | 15.896 |
| Argentina | 11.407 |
| Uruguay | 9.247 |
| England | 7.171 |
| Belgium | 6.746 |
| Peru | 5.673 |
| Russia | 5.19 |
| Denmark | 4.553 |
| Switzerland | 4.401 |
| Iran | 3.936 |
| Colombia | 3.604 |
| Croatia | 2.723 |
| Mexico | 2.176 |
| Serbia | 2.036 |
| Poland | 1.837 |
| Sweden | 1.591 |
| Iceland | 1.548 |
| Costa Rica | 1.136 |
| Egypt | 0.975 |
| Australia | 0.947 |
| Morocco | 0.676 |
| Japan | 0.649 |
| Korea Republic | 0.613 |
| Nigeria | 0.593 |
| Senegal | 0.528 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.366 |
| Panama | 0.231 |
| Tunisia | 0.137 |
Winning the World Cup:
| Brazil | 24.289 |
| Germany | 14.749 |
| Spain | 10.543 |
| Portugal | 9.048 |
| France | 8.854 |
| Argentina | 5.054 |
| Uruguay | 4.147 |
| England | 3.391 |
| Belgium | 3.106 |
| Peru | 2.347 |
| Russia | 1.938 |
| Denmark | 1.842 |
| Switzerland | 1.604 |
| Colombia | 1.424 |
| Iran | 1.413 |
| Croatia | 1.056 |
| Mexico | 0.806 |
| Serbia | 0.69 |
| Poland | 0.622 |
| Iceland | 0.566 |
| Sweden | 0.56 |
| Costa Rica | 0.356 |
| Australia | 0.293 |
| Egypt | 0.264 |
| Morocco | 0.2 |
| Nigeria | 0.189 |
| Korea Republic | 0.171 |
| Japan | 0.166 |
| Senegal | 0.149 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.074 |
| Panama | 0.053 |
| Tunisia | 0.036 |
Hi Edgar,
ReplyDeleteI wonder why we got such different numbers. Here are my simulation:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2017/12/fifa-world-cup-2018-simuations.html
All the favorite teams percentage are lower on my simulations. Have you used the poison simulation for away teams presented here?
http://old.clubelo.com/Articles/Improvingthepredictionmodel.html
Hi Amir,
DeleteNo, I'm using a different (polynomial) formula - that can be updated with new matches.