2018 World Cup: Impact of the draw

Simulations using the actual draw can be found here.

I've simulated 100000 times the draw and the whole tournament.

Here's how the draw changed the probabilities of advancing out of the group stage:


Team - Before the draw - After the draw - Difference

Uruguay	57.355	77.184	19.829
England	67.033	81.512	14.479
Russia	58.721	69.201	10.48
Japan	31.139	41.147	10.008
Egypt	22.8	32.094	9.294
Belgium	75.318	82.605	7.287
Nigeria	23.284	29.466	6.182
Saudi Arabia	15.744	21.521	5.777
Denmark	44.068	48.844	4.776
Serbia	33.134	36.123	2.989
Argentina	79.846	81.339	1.493
Brazil	91.186	92.07	0.884
Germany	91.411	91.621	0.21
Colombia	65.79	65.829	0.039
Iceland	40.121	39.376	-0.745
Korea Republic	27.419	26.306	-1.113
Senegal	34.392	33.145	-1.247
Panama	21.606	19.408	-2.198
Iran	40.593	38.088	-2.505
Tunisia	19.048	16.475	-2.573
Sweden	41.902	39.136	-2.766
France	81.826	78.45	-3.376
Poland	63.397	59.879	-3.518
Costa Rica	31.608	24.988	-6.62
Croatia	56.792	49.819	-6.973
Spain	79.416	72.411	-7.005
Australia	29.039	21.706	-7.333
Morocco	22.998	15.109	-7.889
Portugal	82.528	74.392	-8.136
Peru	59.923	51	-8.923
Mexico	52.995	42.937	-10.058
Switzerland	57.568	46.819	-10.749

Reaching the quarter finals:

England	36.166	56.744	20.578
Belgium	40.021	55.529	15.508
Uruguay	25.965	37.709	11.744
Denmark	18.917	27.328	8.411
France	49.309	56.485	7.176
Brazil	68.851	73.688	4.837
Egypt	6.158	8.781	2.623
Peru	28.537	30.165	1.628
Panama	6.031	7.65	1.619
Tunisia	4.491	5.949	1.458
Serbia	11.787	13.148	1.361
Saudi Arabia	3.502	4.693	1.191
Japan	10.954	11.863	0.909
Iran	16.789	17.679	0.89
Russia	27.746	27.557	-0.189
Australia	9.727	9.384	-0.343
Nigeria	7.158	6.565	-0.593
Portugal	50.481	49.141	-1.34
Morocco	7.186	5.081	-2.105
Spain	52.054	49.359	-2.695
Costa Rica	10.878	8.057	-2.821
Senegal	12.577	9.745	-2.832
Korea Republic	8.817	4.734	-4.083
Iceland	16.049	11.616	-4.433
Colombia	34.76	30.21	-4.55
Poland	26.881	22.31	-4.571
Switzerland	25.909	20.21	-5.699
Argentina	48.183	41.817	-6.366
Germany	67.865	59.861	-8.004
Sweden	17.576	9.205	-8.371
Croatia	25.18	16.64	-8.54
Mexico	23.495	11.097	-12.398

Reaching the semifinals:

Brazil	47.457	59.287	11.83
Uruguay	11.287	20.264	8.977
Portugal	27.713	32.989	5.276
Germany	45.879	48.702	2.823
Spain	31.771	34.462	2.691
Serbia	4.216	6.822	2.606
Iran	6.668	9.004	2.336
Denmark	8.059	10.04	1.981
France	26.701	28.466	1.765
Egypt	1.765	3.184	1.419
Switzerland	11.31	12.174	0.864
Saudi Arabia	0.87	1.36	0.49
Russia	12.46	12.92	0.46
Costa Rica	3.83	4.002	0.172
Morocco	2.237	2.073	-0.164
Tunisia	1.159	0.749	-0.41
Panama	1.668	1.113	-0.555
Nigeria	2.233	1.662	-0.571
Korea Republic	2.858	2.269	-0.589
England	18.264	17.619	-0.645
Australia	3.313	2.565	-0.748
Peru	12.889	11.764	-1.125
Japan	3.896	2.245	-1.651
Sweden	7.118	5.038	-2.08
Belgium	19.181	16.745	-2.436
Iceland	6.217	3.721	-2.496
Senegal	4.619	1.933	-2.686
Mexico	9.947	6.329	-3.618
Croatia	10.713	5.94	-4.773
Poland	10.548	5.594	-4.954
Argentina	25.868	19.586	-6.282
Colombia	17.286	9.379	-7.907

Reaching the final:

Portugal	14.399	19.363	4.964
Uruguay	4.533	9.247	4.714
Brazil	30.985	35.471	4.486
France	13.369	15.896	2.527
Spain	18.576	20.829	2.253
Denmark	3.18	4.553	1.373
Iran	2.58	3.936	1.356
Serbia	1.449	2.036	0.587
Egypt	0.523	0.975	0.452
Saudi Arabia	0.206	0.366	0.16
Peru	5.529	5.673	0.144
Morocco	0.699	0.676	-0.023
Nigeria	0.686	0.593	-0.093
Costa Rica	1.243	1.136	-0.107
Tunisia	0.285	0.137	-0.148
Australia	1.128	0.947	-0.181
Panama	0.468	0.231	-0.237
Korea Republic	0.931	0.613	-0.318
Russia	5.599	5.19	-0.409
Switzerland	4.891	4.401	-0.49
Japan	1.314	0.649	-0.665
Iceland	2.322	1.548	-0.774
Senegal	1.67	0.528	-1.142
Sweden	2.771	1.591	-1.18
England	8.727	7.171	-1.556
Germany	29.385	27.751	-1.634
Croatia	4.489	2.723	-1.766
Argentina	13.179	11.407	-1.772
Mexico	4.181	2.176	-2.005
Poland	3.884	1.837	-2.047
Belgium	8.836	6.746	-2.09
Colombia	7.983	3.604	-4.379

Winning the World Cup:

Brazil	19.37	24.289	4.919
Uruguay	1.772	4.147	2.375
France	6.542	8.854	2.312
Portugal	7.296	9.048	1.752
Denmark	1.276	1.842	0.566
Iran	0.911	1.413	0.502
Spain	10.193	10.543	0.35
Serbia	0.483	0.69	0.207
Egypt	0.124	0.264	0.14
Saudi Arabia	0.05	0.074	0.024
Nigeria	0.189	0.189	0
Morocco	0.222	0.2	-0.022
Tunisia	0.076	0.036	-0.04
Peru	2.39	2.347	-0.043
Costa Rica	0.4	0.356	-0.044
Panama	0.127	0.053	-0.074
Australia	0.376	0.293	-0.083
Korea Republic	0.275	0.171	-0.104
Russia	2.145	1.938	-0.207
Iceland	0.795	0.566	-0.229
Japan	0.449	0.166	-0.283
Switzerland	1.976	1.604	-0.372
Senegal	0.55	0.149	-0.401
Sweden	1.037	0.56	-0.477
England	3.996	3.391	-0.605
Croatia	1.767	1.056	-0.711
Belgium	3.918	3.106	-0.812
Poland	1.455	0.622	-0.833
Mexico	1.678	0.806	-0.872
Argentina	6.473	5.054	-1.419
Colombia	3.569	1.424	-2.145
Germany	18.12	14.749	-3.371

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.