FIFA Ranking: January 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 January.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: January 2018 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the January 2018 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: January 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 January.

20 matches left - most of them part of the Gulf Cup of Nations, a friendly and four group stage matches of the CHAN final tournament.

Also check the probable ranking.

FIFA Ranking: December 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 21 December. 2 friendlies left - part of the East Asian championship.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

Applying the 2026 allocations to the 2018 World Cup

By request. 2014 version here.

Slot allocations:

2018 FIFA World Cup simulations

100000 simulations. For the impact of the draw, see here.

First the average group stage points.

2018 World Cup: Impact of the draw

Simulations using the actual draw can be found here.

I've simulated 100000 times the draw and the whole tournament.

Here's how the draw changed the probabilities of advancing out of the group stage:

2018 World Cup draw: What I would have liked to see

I think I've mentioned this before, but I'm getting old and I'm allowed to say things over and over. Getting plenty of practice with my kids :)

Long time ago - about 8 or 9 years ago perhaps - my blog didn't have a custom domain and its name was "Uninteresting things" (of course, in Romanian). This is one of those posts, so feel free to skip it.