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Thursday, March 29, 2018

FIFA Ranking: April 2018 final preview


FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 April. 

 1 friendly left Malaysia-Bhutan on April 1st.


 This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:
Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank
Malaysia 91 104 175 170
Bhutan 68 89 184 176

In the table below I've used the minimum points.

 Best movers:

 40 - Kyrgyzstan
24 - Kosovo
17 - Kazakhstan

 Worst movers:

 -23 - Haiti
-21 - Papua New Guinea
-20 - Nicaragua

 Best movers in the top 50:

 9 - Tunisia, Venezuela
8 - Norway

 Worst movers in the top 50:

 -6 - Italy
-4 - Sweden, Iceland, Poland

 6 Teams will improve their best ever ranking:

 Tunisia (14 - 19 in February 1998)
Kyrgyzstan (75 - 99 in October 2016)
Philippines (113 - 115 in May 2016)
Chinese Taipei (121 - 134 in January 2018)
Kosovo (152 - 164 in October 2016)
Gibraltar (197 - 205 in September 2016)

 1 Team will return to their best ever ranking:

 Lebanon (82 in February 2018)

 7 Teams will drop to new lows:

 Italy (20 - 17 in July 2015)
Russia (66 - 65 in October 2017)
Togo (129 - 128 in February 2018)
British Virgin Islands (206 - 205 in April 2017)
Tonga (207 - 206 in April 2017)
Eritrea (207 - 206 in April 2017)
Somalia (207 - 206 in November 2014)
April 2018 rank - Team - April 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Germany 1533 0 -76
2 Brazil 1384 0 -105
3 Belgium 1346 2 9
4 Portugal 1306 -1 -54
5 Argentina 1254 -1 -105
6 Switzerland 1179 2 -18
7 France 1166 2 -19
8 Spain 1162 -2 -66
9 Chile 1146 1 -15
10 Poland 1118 -4 -110
11 Peru 1106 0 -22
12 Denmark 1054 0 -54
13 England 1040 3 -7
14 Tunisia 1012 9 92
15 Mexico 1008 2 -30
16 Colombia 989 -3 -117
17 Uruguay 976 5 45
18 Croatia 975 -3 -78
19 Netherlands 969 2 5
20 Italy 947 -6 -115
21 Wales 931 -1 -53
22 Iceland 930 -4 -96
23 Sweden 889 -4 -113
24 USA 880 1 4
25 Costa Rica 858 1 -14
26 Austria 841 2 15
27 Northern Ireland 837 -3 -42
28 Senegal 825 -1 -37
29 Slovakia 786 0 -36
30 Ukraine 777 5 -1
31 Republic of Ireland 776 0 -28
32 Romania 737 4 -12
32 Paraguay 737 -2 -79
34 Scotland 735 -2 -62
35 Serbia 732 -1 -48
36 Iran 727 -3 -65
37 Turkey 714 1 -16
38 Congo DR 711 1 -17
39 Venezuela 709 9 50
40 Australia 700 -3 -40
41 Bosnia-Herzegovina 688 0 -12
42 Morocco 681 0 -13
43 Montenegro 671 3 -4
44 Greece 657 1 -28
45 Czech Republic 647 -2 -43
46 Egypt 636 -2 -51
47 Nigeria 635 5 26
48 Jamaica 612 1 -31
49 Norway 608 8 30
50 Hungary 604 0 -33
51 Cameroon 603 0 -8
51 Ghana 603 3 1
53 Burkina Faso 591 3 4
54 Bulgaria 583 -14 -132
55 Panama 575 -2 -30
56 Albania 549 2 -8
57 Bolivia 548 -10 -126
58 Cape Verde Islands 545 3 6
59 Honduras 530 5 13
60 Japan 528 -5 -65
61 Korea Republic 520 -2 -34
62 Algeria 516 -2 -37
63 Finland 507 5 4
64 Ecuador 506 1 -2
65 Slovenia 495 -3 -42
66 Russia 493 -3 -38
67 Mali 462 0 -44
68 Cote d'Ivoire 458 3 -21
69 Guinea 450 1 -34
70 Saudi Arabia 445 -1 -49
71 Curacao 439 11 32
72 South Africa 433 4 -7
73 China PR 431 -8 -77
74 Uganda 426 4 -9
75 Kyrgyzstan 424 40 142
76 Syria 423 -2 -19
77 FYR Macedonia 422 -2 -19
78 Zambia 413 -1 -25
79 Belarus 410 14 34
80 Canada 407 10 19
81 United Arab Emirates 405 -2 -25
82 Lebanon 404 5 14
83 Luxembourg 401 0 -4
83 Palestine 401 -10 -48
85 El Salvador 392 2 2
86 Cyprus 386 6 8
87 Oman 383 16 52
88 Uzbekistan 381 -16 -70
88 Iraq 381 -5 -24
90 Benin 379 -9 -48
91 Congo 378 -4 -12
92 Trinidad and Tobago 374 -13 -56
92 Gabon 374 3 3
94 Estonia 364 -8 -35
94 Faroe Islands 364 3 0
96 Georgia 362 5 30
97 India 354 2 15
98 Armenia 347 -7 -38
98 Israel 347 -4 -28
100 Libya 341 -1 2
101 Qatar 339 0 7
102 Sierra Leone 332 -4 -28
103 Vietnam 331 10 38
104 Guinea-Bissau 330 -8 -38
105 Mauritania 323 -1 1
106 Mozambique 311 -1 -6
107 Namibia 305 4 3
108 Haiti 302 -23 -101
109 Niger 299 1 -6
110 Zimbabwe 295 -2 -17
111 Madagascar 293 -2 -16
112 Korea DPR 292 7 22
113 Kenya 289 -8 -28
113 Philippines 289 9 24
115 Central African Republic 283 6 17
116 Bahrain 281 9 28
117 Jordan 272 0 -4
118 Tajikistan 271 6 16
119 Kazakhstan 269 17 46
120 Malawi 267 3 3
121 Chinese Taipei 263 13 38
122 Thailand 253 7 15
123 Rwanda 252 -11 -44
124 Antigua and Barbuda 251 15 39
125 Yemen 250 15 39
126 St. Kitts and Nevis 245 -19 -71
126 Azerbaijan 245 1 2
126 Sudan 245 -9 -31
129 Turkmenistan 242 -15 -50
129 Togo 242 -1 1
131 Swaziland 240 2 13
132 Andorra 230 -2 -2
133 New Zealand 229 -13 -38
133 Lithuania 229 14 47
135 Myanmar 227 7 24
136 Nicaragua 224 -20 -53
137 Tanzania 223 9 37
138 Angola 221 3 11
139 Latvia 217 -8 -14
140 Guatemala 198 -14 -47
141 Comoros 195 -9 -35
142 Hong Kong 194 3 4
142 Afghanistan 194 6 18
144 Equatorial Guinea 190 -6 -23
145 Ethiopia 188 -8 -33
145 Burundi 188 -3 -15
147 Maldives 183 3 22
148 Botswana 176 1 3
149 Dominican Republic 175 14 54
149 Lesotho 175 -5 -18
151 Liberia 167 -16 -57
152 Kosovo 164 24 67
153 Solomon Islands 162 -2 10
154 Suriname 140 3 0
155 South Sudan 139 -1 -9
156 Vanuatu 136 0 -5
157 New Caledonia 135 -2 -11
158 Puerto Rico 128 8 16
159 Mauritius 122 -1 -12
160 Barbados 118 -8 -33
161 Tahiti 117 -8 -32
162 Indonesia 111 0 -12
162 Guyana 111 -3 -15
162 Nepal 111 3 -5
165 Chad 110 3 0
165 Fiji 110 3 0
167 Belize 107 10 11
168 St. Lucia 105 5 4
168 Cambodia 105 3 2
170 Grenada 103 -11 -23
171 Singapore 102 0 -1
172 Moldova 98 -2 -7
173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 95 2 -5
174 Gambia 94 -10 -26
175 Malaysia 91 3 -4
176 Kuwait 88 -3 -13
176 Dominica 88 -10 -24
178 Laos 83 5 1
179 Bermuda 82 5 4
180 Papua New Guinea 78 -21 -48
181 Liechtenstein 77 0 -14
182 Cuba 75 0 -13
182 Aruba 75 -2 -17
184 Bhutan 68 4 5
185 Malta 62 0 -6
186 Macau 60 0 -5
187 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 59 -8 -35
188 Mongolia 51 1 2
189 Guam 45 2 2
190 Timor-Leste 44 0 0
191 Bangladesh 42 6 11
192 American Samoa 38 2 0
192 Cook Islands 38 2 0
192 Samoa 38 2 0
195 Brunei Darussalam 36 -2 -3
195 Seychelles 36 -4 -7
197 Gibraltar 34 9 34
198 Djibouti 27 -11 -37
199 US Virgin Islands 18 -1 -8
200 Montserrat 17 -1 -3
200 Sri Lanka 17 0 1
202 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 -1 0
203 Pakistan 10 0 -2
204 Cayman Islands 8 -3 -5
204 San Marino 8 0 -3
206 British Virgin Islands 4 -1 -2
207 Tonga 0 -1 0
207 Eritrea 0 -1 0
207 Somalia 0 -1 0
207 Bahamas 0 -1 0
207 Anguilla 0 -1 0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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19 comments:

  1. AnonymousMarch 30, 2018 at 1:47 PM

    Thanks alot! Missed you :-)

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousMarch 30, 2018 at 3:50 PM

    Kyrgyzstan best!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdMarch 31, 2018 at 9:44 AM

      And with the win over India Kyrgyzstan also jumped to pot 2 for the draw in May of the AFC Nations Cup 2019.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousApril 2, 2018 at 5:25 AM

      San Marino will be 205th not 204th

      Delete
    3. EdApril 2, 2018 at 10:15 AM

      No, not quite.

      San Marino has 7.92 points, so rounded 8 points.
      The Cayman Islands has exactly 8.5 points. So here we stumble on another small peculiarity of FIFA: they round exactly 8.5 to 8. So both have 8 points on a joined 204th spot. The positions of both countries are correct and that's important because matchpoints of future matches are calculated with the position of teams in the ranking, not their points.
      I presented 9 points for the Cayman Islands because that's the normal way (at least the Excel way) of rounding exactly 8.5 points. I will fix that. Thanks.

      Delete
    4. EdApril 15, 2018 at 5:55 PM

      Well, FIFA knows how they can make simple things confusing :)

      As far as I can see in several rankings FIFA applies a round-to-even rounding method (rounding to the nearest even number) when a team has exactly 0.5 point as decimal part for rounding a team's FIFA-points. So 8.5 is rounded down to 8 and 9.5 is rounded up to 10. In itself that's already a bit weird but it gets even weirder: for determining a team's position in the ranking they use the normal rounding method where 0.5 points is always rounded up.

      Illustrated by the Cayman Islands/San Marino case this April ranking. The Cayman Islands have 8.5 points unrounded. San Marino has 7.92 points.
      One would expect applying normal rounding rules that the Caymans would have 9 points in the ranking and San Marino 8 and that the Caymans would be 1 position higher than San Marino.
      It turns out that the Caymans got 8 points, same as San Marino, but the Caymans are still 1 position higher than San Marino (204th vs. 205th spot) as if their 8.5 points were rounded up to 9.

      Why don't they present 9 points for the Caymans then ?

      Delete
  3. SloanysoftMarch 30, 2018 at 6:40 PM

    Another one of those months where Northern Ireland win their game but drop 3 places.

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownMarch 31, 2018 at 3:51 PM

    My Kyrgyzstan! My national team is the best!!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousApril 1, 2018 at 5:34 PM

    Yeayy Malaysia thrashed Bhutan 7-0

    ReplyDelete
  6. UnknownApril 2, 2018 at 2:24 PM

    how german can stay at pos 1 with a record of 3 draws and 1 loss in the recent 4 matches show the "worth" of fifa ranking arythmetics.

    ReplyDelete
  7. EdApril 2, 2018 at 5:54 PM

    You want Kyrgyzstan on top because they won their last two matches ? Rather shortsighted I would say.

    Germany won their World Cup qualifying group with 10 wins out of 10, they won the Confederations Cup last Summer and are still the reigning world champion.
    And indeed, they didn't win their last 4 matches. But as those were low-valued friendlies and even then they scored three draws against England, France and Spain and a loss against Brazil (I think you can call them all true world-class opposition), it isn't really any surprise that they are comfortably number one in the world right now.
    This has really nothing to do with the known deficiencies of the FIFA ranking calculation.

    ReplyDelete
  8. mikecoxonApril 5, 2018 at 12:01 PM

    great to have you back!

    ReplyDelete
  9. UnknownApril 10, 2018 at 12:18 AM

    some teams they lost their friendlies and they moved forward, other teams they won their friendlies and they moved backward , you will never understand how they calculate this shit!

    ReplyDelete
  10. EdApril 10, 2018 at 12:36 PM

    Yeah, it's real rocket science ! Man, even I can do it !

    ReplyDelete
  11. UnknownApril 11, 2018 at 8:17 PM

    Ed, any views on Asian Cup 2019 groups.
    Which country seems to be winning this time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdApril 11, 2018 at 9:30 PM

      Friday May 4th is the draw for the Asian Nations Cup 2019. Then I will simulate the whole tournament and will report on the results shortly afterwards.

      Delete
  12. LeeApril 12, 2018 at 11:17 AM

    Hi Ed,

    I was checking on my personal tracker for Malaysia's ranking and noticed there's a disparity of 5.56 points between Dec 2017 and March 2018, and 5.1 points for April 2018. It is strange because my tracker is correct from January 2016 to November 2017. When I looked deeper, it seems to be caused by matches involving the March-October 2015 period. Can you advise if I missed anything? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  13. EdApril 12, 2018 at 6:50 PM

    Hi Lee,

    must be connected to the fact that all the matches of Timor-Leste in World Cup 2018 qualifying are awarded against them because they fielded several ineligible players. This decision was taken by FIFA in November 2017.
    It concerns both matches in the stage 1 play-offs against Mongolia and 4 of the 6 stage 2 group A matches (the other two were already lost heavily against UAE 0:8 and KSA 0:10).
    So the match Malaysia - Timor-Leste played June 11th 2015 which ended in a 1:1 draw, was awarded 3:0 to Malaysia in November 2017 giving 318,75 matchpoints to Malaysia. The other groupmatch Timor-Leste - Malaysia played October 13th 2015 already ended in a win (0:1) for Malaysia.
    I think this will explain the differences you find.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LeeApril 13, 2018 at 8:21 AM

      Thanks! It's in line with the official FIFA Rankings now.

      Delete

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