UEFA Nations League 2019 simulations (April 2018)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2019. 

This competition will be played for the first time on six matchdays this Autumn, with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year. The groups were drawn last January.


There are 4 leagues, A - D. Each league consists of 4 groups. Leagues A and B have three teams per group, league C 3 groups of four and 1 group of three teams and league D has 4 four-team groups. All teams in a group play against each other home and away.

An overall UNL-ranking per league is compiled after the groupstage. Teams will be ordered by:

• position in the group
• points
• goal-difference
• goals scored
• away goals scored
• number of wins
• number of away wins
• fair-play
• UEFA NT-coefficient

Notes: 
- ordering of the group winners in league A will be decided in the Final Four;
- in league C the ranking of the group numbers 1 to 3 will be based on the group matches against numbers 1 to 3 in the group; the ranking of the group numbers 4 will be based on all group matches.

This ranking is used to seed the draw on December 2nd 2018 for the qualifying stage of EURO 2020, which will run from March to November 2019 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two qualify for EURO 2020. 
After that qualifying phase 16 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2020, will have another chance to gain one of the last 4 qualifying berths for EURO 2020 via play-offs, to be played in March 2020. 
The 16 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the UNL-rankings per league. So there is some importance in getting good results in the UNL 2019.
There is also promotion/relegation between leagues to compose the leagues for the next UNL edition 2020/2021: each group-winner in leagues B-D is promoted, each group-last in leagues A-C is relegated.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole UNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results:

group A-1 1st 2nd 3rd Germany 53,85 30,04 16,11 France 28,86 38,62 32,52 Netherlands 17,29 31,34 51,37 group A-2 1st 2nd 3rd Belgium 45,91 33,10 20,99 Switzerland 34,66 35,81 29,53 Iceland 19,43 31,09 49,48 group A-3 1st 2nd 3rd Portugal 48,23 31,36 20,41 Italy 30,90 36,13 32,97 Poland 20,87 32,51 46,62 group A-4 1st 2nd 3rd Spain 54,59 29,18 16,23 England 28,77 38,20 33,03 Croatia 16,64 32,62 50,74 group B-1 1st 2nd 3rd Slovakia 37,33 33,18 29,49 Ukraine 33,30 32,83 33,87 Czech Republic 29,37 33,99 36,64 group B-2 1st 2nd 3rd Sweden 46,17 31,66 22,17 Turkey 29,39 35,29 35,32 Russia 24,44 33,05 42,51 group B-3 1st 2nd 3rd Bosnia-Herzegovina 36,53 33,82 29,65 Austria 36,32 34,02 29,66 Northern Ireland 27,15 32,16 40,69 group B-4 1st 2nd 3rd Denmark 45,01 32,81 22,18 Wales 31,74 34,09 34,17 Republic of Ireland 23,25 33,10 43,65 group C-1 1st 2nd 3rd Scotland 55,11 29,32 15,57 Albania 27,11 38,05 34,84 Israel 17,78 32,63 49,59 group C-2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Greece 38,09 27,34 20,49 14,08 Finland 25,81 27,39 25,49 21,31 Hungary 23,45 26,06 26,52 23,97 Estonia 12,65 19,21 27,50 40,64 group C-3 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Bulgaria 31,66 28,65 24,77 14,92 Norway 30,66 29,50 25,29 14,55 Slovenia 30,41 28,48 25,52 15,59 Cyprus   7,27 13,37 24,42 54,94 group C-4 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Serbia 47,38 30,17 17,26   5,19 Romania 32,90 34,22 23,87   9,01 Montenegro 16,99 27,57 36,75 18,69 Lithuania   2,73   8,04 22,12 67,11 group D-1 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Georgia 56,36 28,07 13,90   1,67 Kazakhstan 22,64 34,07 34,73   8,56 Latvia 20,24 33,96 37,42   8,38 Andorra   0,76   3,90 13,95 81,39 group D-2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Belarus 63,99 24,73 10,99   0,29 Moldova 18,53 36,42 42,11   2,94 Luxembourg 17,42 38,40 41,22   2,96 San Marino   0,06   0,45   5,68 93,81 group D-3 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Kosovo 37,86 29,65 20,41 12,08 Azerbaijan 34,13 29,53 21,92 14,42 Faroe Islands 18,86 24,27 30,10 26,77 Malta   9,15 16,55 27,57 46,73 group D-4 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FYR Macedonia 55,02 36,17   7,41   1,40 Armenia 40,82 45,56 11,01   2,61 Liechtenstein   2,64 10,36 44,86 42,14 Gibraltar   1,52   7,91 36,72 53,85

The Final Four results:

Final Four	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	19,28	19,63	7,22	7,72
Spain	16,45	16,19	11,15	10,80
Portugal	13,34	13,41	10,81	10,67
Belgium	9,17	8,66	13,64	14,44
France	8,69	9,06	5,54	5,57
Italy	7,06	6,69	8,64	8,51
England	6,82	6,63	7,93	7,39
Switzerland	5,73	6,10	11,10	11,73
Netherlands	4,38	4,87	4,23	3,81
Poland	3,80	3,51	7,01	6,55
Croatia	3,05	2,78	5,36	5,45
Iceland	2,23	2,47	7,37	7,36

Each simulation gives a UNL-ranking per league. Here's the resulting average ranking per league, grouped by the pots for the qualifying stage of EURO 2020:

pot 1

Spain Germany Portugal Belgium Italy Switzerland England France Poland Croatia

pot 2

Iceland Netherlands ----------------------------- Denmark Sweden Bosnia-Herzegovina Austria Slovakia Wales Ukraine Northern Ireland

pot 3

Turkey Czech Republic Republic of Ireland Russia ----------------------------- Scotland Serbia Romania Greece Albania Bulgaria

pot 4

Norway Slovenia Finland Israel Hungary Montenegro Estonia Cyprus Lithuania ----------------------------- Belarus

pot 5

FYR Macedonia Georgia Armenia Kosovo Azerbaijan Moldova Luxembourg Kazakhstan Latvia Faroe Islands

pot 6

Malta Liechtenstein Gibraltar Andorra San Marino

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.