Asian Nations Cup 2019 simulations (May 2018)

Last week was the draw for the Asian Nations Cup 2019, played next January in the United Arab Emirates. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 tournament.

The seeding for this draw was based on the April FIFA ranking, but with a small twist: the 12 teams that qualified first in the second qualifying round populated the first two pots, ordered by this ranking. The other 12 teams that qualified later on via the third qualifying round populated pots 3 and 4, once again ordered by this ranking.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
United Arab Emirates	58,24	24,94	11,92	4,90
Thailand	15,99	30,41	31,90	21,70
Bahrain	15,85	24,60	27,17	32,38
India	9,92	20,05	29,01	41,02
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Australia	49,08	27,28	15,72	7,92
Syria	26,57	31,59	23,05	18,79
Jordan	12,57	22,14	32,93	32,36
Palestine	11,78	18,99	28,30	40,93
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Korea Republic	59,35	28,13	9,40	3,12
China PR	29,24	39,73	21,05	9,98
Kyrgyzstan	6,41	17,68	37,87	38,04
Philippines	5,00	14,46	31,68	48,86
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Iran	68,89	21,21	7,61	2,29
Iraq	20,72	42,71	25,38	11,19
Vietnam	6,70	20,61	33,54	39,15
Yemen	3,69	15,47	33,47	47,37
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Saudi Arabia	38,44	26,03	19,07	16,46
Korea DPR	20,72	25,40	27,55	26,33
Qatar	20,79	24,97	27,92	26,32
Lebanon	20,05	23,60	25,46	30,89
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Japan	43,58	29,67	18,84	7,91
Uzbekistan	31,11	31,48	25,23	12,18
Oman	20,74	28,70	33,86	16,70
Turkmenistan	4,57	10,15	22,07	63,21

Round of 16

Iran	96,31
Korea Republic	95,62
United Arab Emirates	92,39
Japan	89,26
Australia	87,74
Iraq	83,01
China PR	82,77
Uzbekistan	79,65
Saudi Arabia	78,96
Syria	76,29
Oman	74,32
Thailand	68,41
Qatar	66,51
Lebanon	63,45
Korea DPR	62,93
Bahrain	56,72
Jordan	55,59
India	50,23
Vietnam	49,13
Palestine	48,13
Kyrgyzstan	47,35
Philippines	35,73
Yemen	33,15
Turkmenistan	26,35

Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Iran	76,91		[79,86]
Korea Republic	74,45		[77,86]
United Arab Emirates	66,38		[71,85]
Australia	64,72		[73,76]
Japan	59,92		[67,13]
Uzbekistan	45,71		[57,39]
Syria	44,57		[58,42]
China PR	42,50		[51,35]
Iraq	40,79		[49,14]
Saudi Arabia	37,57		[47,58]
Oman	34,68		[46,66]
Thailand	27,00		[39,47]
Bahrain	23,91		[42,15]
India	23,89		[47,56]
Qatar	23,37		[35,14]
Jordan	22,18		[39,90]
Lebanon	20,96		[33,03]
Korea DPR	20,70		[32,89]
Palestine	17,02		[35,36]
Vietnam	8,88		[18,07]
Kyrgyzstan	8,76		[18,50]
Philippines	5,68		[15,90]
Yemen	4,75		[14,33]
Turkmenistan	4,70		[17,84]

Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Iran	56,59		[73,58]
Korea Republic	48,90		[65,68]
Australia	43,64		[67,43]
Japan	37,71		[62,93]
United Arab Emirates	35,24		[53,09]
Syria	23,93		[53,69]
Uzbekistan	23,50		[51,41]
Iraq	18,05		[44,25]
Saudi Arabia	16,59		[44,16]
China PR	15,78		[37,13]
Oman	15,54		[44,81]
Qatar	8,64		[36,97]
Jordan	8,36		[37,69]
India	8,27		[34,62]
Korea DPR	7,40		[35,75]
Lebanon	7,35		[35,07]
Bahrain	6,57		[27,48]
Thailand	6,33		[23,44]
Palestine	5,52		[32,43]
Vietnam	1,62		[18,24]
Kyrgyzstan	1,59		[18,15]
Turkmenistan	1,05		[22,34]
Philippines	1,00		[17,61]
Yemen	0,83		[17,47]

Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Iran	41,09		[72,61]
Korea Republic	32,55		[66,56]
Australia	23,79		[54,51]
Japan	19,65		[52,11]
United Arab Emirates	14,92		[42,34]
Syria	10,60		[44,30]
Uzbekistan	10,17		[43,28]
Saudi Arabia	7,84		[47,26]
Iraq	7,73		[42,83]
Oman	5,75		[37,00]
China PR	5,65		[35,80]
Qatar	3,10		[35,88]
India	2,94		[35,55]
Jordan	2,82		[33,73]
Korea DPR	2,58		[34,86]
Lebanon	2,50		[34,01]
Bahrain	1,77		[26,94]
Thailand	1,69		[26,70]
Palestine	1,41		[25,54]
Kyrgyzstan	0,42		[26,42]
Vietnam	0,41		[25,31]
Philippines	0,25		[25,00]
Yemen	0,22		[26,51]
Turkmenistan	0,15		[14,29]

Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Iran	29,10		[70,82]
Korea Republic	16,67		[51,21]
Australia	14,01		[58,89]
Japan	10,73		[54,61]
United Arab Emirates	5,48		[36,73]
Uzbekistan	4,36		[42,87]
Syria	4,16		[39,25]
Iraq	2,78		[35,96]
Saudi Arabia	2,71		[34,57]
Oman	2,15		[37,39]
China PR	1,59		[28,14]
Qatar	1,05		[33,87]
Korea DPR	1,02		[39,53]
India	0,95		[32,31]
Jordan	0,76		[26,95]
Lebanon	0,70		[28,00]
Bahrain	0,60		[33,90]
Thailand	0,45		[26,63]
Palestine	0,39		[27,66]
Vietnam	0,12		[29,27]
Philippines	0,08		[32,00]
Kyrgyzstan	0,08		[19,05]
Yemen	0,04		[18,18]
Turkmenistan	0,02		[13,33]

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.