FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

I have made a probable July 2018 ranking, applying the new calculation method for all matches played from June 4th onwards. See the probable results for the predicted results used. 

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable results

Here are the predicted results of all currently scheduled matches and the prediction of the matches in the knock-out phase of the World Cup, used to calculate the July 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

FIFA ranking: July 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.

Also check the probable July ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

See the results of all matches that contribute to this probable July 2018 ranking.

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

FIFA ranking: June 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday June 7th. 

Best movers:

21 - Azerbaijan
14 - Papua New Guinea
13 - El Salvador, New Zealand

Worst movers:

-18 - Guyana
-17 - Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan