FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.
I have made a probable July 2018 ranking, applying the new calculation method for all matches played from June 4th onwards. See the probable results for the predicted results used.
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Monday, June 11, 2018
Saturday, June 9, 2018
FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable results
Here are the predicted results of all currently scheduled matches and the prediction of the matches in the knock-out phase of the World Cup, used to calculate the July 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)
FIFA ranking: July 2018 preview
FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.
Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.
Also check the probable July ranking.
Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway
Most points lost (best case scenario)
-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador
Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.
Also check the probable July ranking.
Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway
Most points lost (best case scenario)
-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador
FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking
Monday, June 4, 2018
World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)
Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
FIFA ranking: June 2018 final preview
FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday June 7th.
Best movers:
21 - Azerbaijan
14 - Papua New Guinea
13 - El Salvador, New Zealand
Worst movers:
-18 - Guyana
-17 - Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan
Best movers:
21 - Azerbaijan
14 - Papua New Guinea
13 - El Salvador, New Zealand
Worst movers:
-18 - Guyana
-17 - Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan