Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)
| 2018-06-11 Senegal - Korea Republic; Friendly; X |
| 2018-06-11 Belgium - Costa Rica; Friendly; 1 |
| 2018-06-12 Japan - Paraguay; Friendly; X |
| 2018-06-12 Poland - Lithuania; Friendly; 1 |
| 2018-06-14 Russia - Saudi Arabia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-15 Egypt - Uruguay; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-15 Morocco - Iran; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-15 Portugal - Spain; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-16 France - Australia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-16 Peru - Denmark; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-16 Argentina - Iceland; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-16 Croatia - Nigeria; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-17 Brazil - Switzerland; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-17 Costa Rica - Serbia; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-17 Germany - Mexico; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-18 Sweden - Korea Republic; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-18 Belgium - Panama; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-18 Tunisia - England; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-19 Russia - Egypt; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-19 Colombia - Japan; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-19 Poland - Senegal; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-20 Uruguay - Saudi Arabia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-20 Iran - Spain; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-20 Portugal - Morocco; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-21 Denmark - Australia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-21 France - Peru; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-21 Argentina - Croatia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-22 Nigeria - Iceland; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-22 Brazil - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-22 Serbia - Switzerland; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-23 Germany - Sweden; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-23 Korea Republic - Mexico; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-23 Belgium - Tunisia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-24 England - Panama; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-24 Japan - Senegal; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-24 Poland - Colombia; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-25 Saudi Arabia - Egypt; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-25 Uruguay - Russia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-25 Iran - Portugal; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-25 Spain - Morocco; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-26 Australia - Peru; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-26 Denmark - France; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-26 Iceland - Croatia; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-26 Nigeria - Argentina; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-27 Serbia - Brazil; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-27 Switzerland - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-06-27 Korea Republic - Germany; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-27 Mexico - Sweden; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-28 England - Belgium; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-28 Panama - Tunisia; World Cup; X |
| 2018-06-28 Japan - Poland; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-28 Senegal - Colombia; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-06-30 Uruguay - Portugal; World Cup; Portugal pso win |
| 2018-06-30 Spain - Russia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-01 France - Croatia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-01 Argentina - Peru; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-02 Brazil - Mexico; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-02 Germany - Switzerland; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-03 England - Poland; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-03 Colombia - Belgium; World Cup; Colombia pso win |
| 2018-07-06 Portugal - France; World Cup; France pso win |
| 2018-07-06 Brazil - England; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-07 Spain - Argentina; World Cup; Spain pso win |
| 2018-07-07 Germany - Colombia; World Cup; 1 |
| 2018-07-10 France - Brazil; World Cup; 2 |
| 2018-07-11 Spain - Germany; World Cup; Germany pso win |
| 2018-07-14 France - Spain; World Cup; Spain pso win |
| 2018-07-15 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Maybe you've mentioned this somewhere before but how do you determine that the expected result is a win/draw/loss given the ELO rating. I'm quite familiar with the calculation method of the ELO rating so no need to explain that, but how do you judge from an expectation value between 0 and 1 that the country is expected to win for example? Do you have a limit like 0.6 above which you assume a country will win the match? And anything between 0.6 and 0.4 is considered a draw. Or is it more subtle than that?
ReplyDeleteHi Homer,
ReplyDeleteI determined over a very large sample of matches with their elo home team win expectancy the cumulative probability distribution as a function of the home team win expectancy. It got me two values for the home team win expectancy where the probability equals 33.33% and 66.67%. I made separate distributions for friendlies and non-friendlies btw.
The values for the home win expectancy are:
non-friendlies: win - 0.6093 - draw - 0.3908 - loss
friendlies: win - 0.6339 - draw - 0.3661 - loss
So, disappointingly blunt, this approach :)
This comment has been removed by the author.
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DeleteOK, thanks! Sounds like at least you used some means to get to your numbers rather than just stick a finger in the air, good job!
19 prediction got wrong till Argentina vs Nigeria match. Loads of matches left. July rankings got to see many vhangec
ReplyDeleteHow wrong!! More than a half matches you predict non correctly, it's a shame for you!! Look, Croatia will be champions!!
ReplyDeleteWell Mister (or Misses) Unknown,
ReplyDeleteFirst of all these are not MY predictions, but elo's.
And second, it's always so easy to predict when things have passed. Next time I would like to see YOUR predictions beforehand and then we can compare notes. Thank you for your useful comment :)
And btw, I do hope Croatia can do it !
Ed, we need advice from the Dutch what not to do if we want to avoid losing a WC final. :D
DeleteNogomet,
DeleteAgainst the French you got to keep your defense tight and closed. They are very quick and dangerous when you give them some space.
You have proven now that you got stamina and resilience. Just outlast them and try to get to the extra time and/or penalties, then everything will be alright :)
Idi hrvatskoj !
Thanks, Ed. Let's do this!
DeleteI think England could reach the semi finals, but France will win the WC.
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