2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (5 september 2018)

The overall UNL-ranking will be compiled after completion of the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019. This ranking is used to seed the draw on December 2nd 2018 in Dublin for the qualifying stage of EURO 2020, which will run from March to November 2019 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two of each group qualify for EURO 2020.


After that qualifying phase 16 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2020, will have another chance to gain one of the last 4 qualifying berths for EURO 2020 via play-offs, to be played in March 2020. The 16 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the overall UNL-ranking.

Teams will be ordered in this UNL-ranking by:

• league
• position in the group
• points
• goal-difference
• goals scored
• away goals scored
• number of wins
• number of away wins
• fair-play
• UEFA NT-coefficient

Notes:
- ordering of the group winners in league A will be decided in the Final Four in June 2019;
- in league C the ranking of the group numbers 1 to 3 will be based on the group matches against numbers 1 to 3 in the group; the ranking of the group numbers 4 will be based on all group matches.

Here are the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
Belgium	98,15	1,85	0	0	0	0
France	96,38	3,62	0	0	0	0
Portugal	92,59	7,41	0	0	0	0
Spain	91,36	8,64	0	0	0	0
Italy	88,54	11,46	0	0	0	0
Croatia	85,63	14,37	0	0	0	0
Switzerland	86,69	13,31	0	0	0	0
Germany	81,32	18,68	0	0	0	0
England	81,12	18,88	0	0	0	0
Netherlands	71,84	28,16	0	0	0	0
Poland	72,83	27,17	0	0	0	0
Iceland	53,55	46,45	0	0	0	0
Sweden	0	83,16	16,84	0	0	0
Denmark	0	82,48	17,52	0	0	0
Austria	0	72,64	27,36	0	0	0
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	70,97	29,03	0	0	0
Slovakia	0	69,95	30,05	0	0	0
Ukraine	0	67,96	32,04	0	0	0
Wales	0	63,42	36,58	0	0	0
Czech Republic	0	62,09	37,91	0	0	0
Turkey	0	58,61	41,39	0	0	0
Northern Ireland	0	56,39	43,61	0	0	0
Russia	0	58,23	41,77	0	0	0
Republic of Ireland	0	54,10	45,90	0	0	0
Scotland	0	0	74,25	25,75	0	0
Serbia	0	0	65,78	34,22	0	0
Romania	0	0	54,37	45,63	0	0
Norway	0	0	49,76	50,24	0	0
Greece	0	0	49,99	50,01	0	0
Slovenia	0	0	46,30	53,70	0	0
Albania	0	0	41,80	58,20	0	0
Bulgaria	0	0	43,18	56,82	0	0
Finland	0	0	41,71	58,29	0	0
Israel	0	0	34,99	65,01	0	0
Hungary	0	0	35,66	64,34	0	0
Montenegro	0	0	26,76	73,24	0	0
Estonia	0	0	20,37	79,63	0	0
Cyprus	0	0	10,63	89,37	0	0
Lithuania	0	0	4,45	95,55	0	0
Belarus	0	0	0	23,70	75,29	1,01
FYR Macedonia	0	0	0	21,06	76,51	2,43
Georgia	0	0	0	14,34	81,88	3,78
Armenia	0	0	0	11,80	83,22	4,98
Kosovo	0	0	0	6,26	81,26	12,48
Luxembourg	0	0	0	4,81	87,29	7,90
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	4,85	77,43	17,72
Moldova	0	0	0	4,20	86,54	9,26
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	4,13	81,82	14,05
Latvia	0	0	0	2,96	79,71	17,33
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	1,25	63,84	34,91
Malta	0	0	0	0,36	43,40	56,24
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0,20	37,68	62,12
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0,05	27,24	72,71
Andorra	0	0	0	0,03	14,00	85,97
San Marino	0	0	0	0,00	2,89	97,11

And the seeding pots with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position. The leagues are indicated by the dotted lines.


pot 1

Belgium	3,62
France	4,03
Portugal	5,44
Spain	5,55
Italy	6,34
Croatia	6,61
Switzerland	6,66
Germany	7,05
England	7,16
Netherlands	8,04

pot 2

Poland	8,07
Iceland	9,43
-----------------------------------------
Sweden	16,82
Denmark	16,86
Austria	18,06
Bosnia-Herzegovina	18,12
Slovakia	18,24
Ukraine	18,33
Wales	18,91
Czech Republic	18,95

pot 3

Turkey	19,30
Northern Ireland	19,32
Russia	19,38
Republic of Ireland	19,72
-----------------------------------------
Scotland	28,45
Serbia	29,38
Romania	30,39
Norway	30,90
Greece	30,92
Slovenia	31,25

pot 4

Albania	31,25
Bulgaria	31,50
Finland	31,71
Israel	31,81
Hungary	32,38
Montenegro	33,00
Estonia	34,30
Cyprus	35,76
Lithuania	36,98
-----------------------------------------
Belarus	43,03

pot 5

FYR Macedonia	43,24
Georgia	44,01
Armenia	44,37
Kosovo	45,54
Luxembourg	46,12
Azerbaijan	46,27
Moldova	46,40
Kazakhstan	46,42
Latvia	46,93
Faroe Islands	48,34

pot 6

Malta	50,16
Liechtenstein	50,80
Gibraltar	51,54
Andorra	52,69
San Marino	54,15

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.