2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (15 september 2018)

Here is an update after MD1 and MD2 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.
The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.

The pots are indicated by the dotted lines.

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
Spain	100,00	0,00	0	0	0	0
Belgium	99,97	0,03	0	0	0	0
France	99,88	0,12	0	0	0	0
Portugal	99,45	0,55	0	0	0	0
Switzerland	99,64	0,36	0	0	0	0
Germany	87,56	12,44	0	0	0	0
Poland	85,83	14,17	0	0	0	0
Croatia	77,86	22,14	0	0	0	0
Italy	82,77	17,23	0	0	0	0
Netherlands	74,64	25,36	0	0	0	0
----------------------------------------
England	70,63	29,37	0	0	0	0
Iceland	21,77	78,23	0	0	0	0
Ukraine	0	98,53	1,47	0	0	0
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	98,64	1,36	0	0	0
Denmark	0	90,25	9,75	0	0	0
Russia	0	81,94	18,06	0	0	0
Wales	0	80,48	19,52	0	0	0
Turkey	0	70,36	29,64	0	0	0
Austria	0	66,82	33,18	0	0	0
Slovakia	0	65,74	34,26	0	0	0
----------------------------------------
Sweden	0	47,70	52,30	0	0	0
Czech Republic	0	35,73	64,27	0	0	0
Northern Ireland	0	34,54	65,46	0	0	0
Republic of Ireland	0	29,27	70,73	0	0	0
Scotland	0	0	87,85	12,15	0	0
Bulgaria	0	0	88,05	11,95	0	0
Finland	0	0	67,10	32,90	0	0
Serbia	0	0	62,07	37,93	0	0
Greece	0	0	46,45	53,55	0	0
Albania	0	0	43,86	56,14	0	0
----------------------------------------
Romania	0	0	41,27	58,73	0	0
Norway	0	0	44,49	55,51	0	0
Montenegro	0	0	33,71	66,29	0	0
Hungary	0	0	37,83	62,17	0	0
Israel	0	0	19,06	80,94	0	0
Cyprus	0	0	11,73	88,27	0	0
Slovenia	0	0	11,97	88,03	0	0
Estonia	0	0	3,99	96,01	0	0
Lithuania	0	0	0,57	99,43	0	0
Georgia	0	0	0	35,45	64,52	0,03
----------------------------------------
FYR Macedonia	0	0	0	39,12	60,83	0,05
Belarus	0	0	0	10,20	89,57	0,23
Luxembourg	0	0	0	9,29	90,65	0,06
Kosovo	0	0	0	3,42	92,95	3,63
Armenia	0	0	0	2,20	95,17	2,63
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0,09	83,95	15,96
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	0,17	77,15	22,68
Moldova	0	0	0	0,03	90,75	9,22
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	0,00	69,56	30,44
Latvia	0	0	0	0,01	65,32	34,67
----------------------------------------
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0,02	58,99	40,99
Malta	0	0	0	0,00	27,93	72,07
Andorra	0	0	0	0,00	23,59	76,41
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0,00	7,83	92,17
San Marino	0	0	0	0,00	1,24	98,76

Compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL it can be seen that France, Switzerland, Belgium, Portugal and Spain all cemented their pot 1 spot. Iceland was the only one to throw their pot 1 chances down the gutter.

Further down Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina cemented their pot 2 spot with good wins while Sweden had a bad, unexpected result against Turkey that could well make them drop to pot 3.

Bulgaria are firmly on their way to a pot 3 spot, while Georgia and FYR Macedonia made good progress to the last pot 4 spot from League D.

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.