2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (15 September 2018)

The first two matchdays in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.


The July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.
The qualification format is not yet known in detail. Current practice is to form groups from which the group-winners qualify and a certain amount of runners-up play each other in play-offs for the remaining berths. 
Now with the introduction of the Nations League this format could well change and f.i. the non-qualified league A (and B) top dogs could be qualified (maybe via play-offs) instead of group runners-up.
As long as the new qualification format is unknown I will stick to the current format with a draw from 5 pots of 9 and 1 pot of 10 teams.

Furthermore, in these simulations the first 4 matchdays of EURO 2020 qualifying (to be played in March and June 2019) are not incorporated because their match schedule is not known yet. 

Earlier simulation results from before the start of the UNL can be found here.

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
France	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
Belgium	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
Croatia	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
England	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
Portugal	99,98	0,02	0	0	0	0
Switzerland	99,96	0,04	0	0	0	0
Spain	99,67	0,33	0	0	0	0
Denmark	98,09	1,91	0	0	0	0
Germany	80,61	19,39	0	0	0	0
----------------------------------------
Netherlands	8,63	91,37	0	0	0	0
Sweden	8,04	91,96	0	0	0	0
Poland	3,62	96,38	0	0	0	0
Italy	0,86	99,14	0	0	0	0
Wales	0,54	99,46	0	0	0	0
Austria	0	91,13	8,87	0	0	0
Slovakia	0	75,89	24,11	0	0	0
Romania	0	69,76	30,24	0	0	0
Ukraine	0	56,61	43,39	0	0	0
----------------------------------------
Northern Ireland	0	43,23	56,77	0	0	0
Republic of Ireland	0	40,08	59,92	0	0	0
Serbia	0	12,09	87,39	0,52	0	0
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	9,60	90,37	0,03	0	0
Iceland	0	0,41	99,53	0,06	0	0
Turkey	0	1,17	96,67	2,16	0	0
Scotland	0	0,01	88,54	11,45	0	0
Montenegro	0	0,02	70,09	29,89	0	0
Greece	0	0	58,15	41,85	0	0
----------------------------------------
Bulgaria	0	0	47,22	52,78	0	0
Russia	0	0	27,11	72,89	0	0
Czech Republic	0	0	7,56	92,44	0	0
Hungary	0	0	2,41	97,59	0	0
Norway	0	0	1,66	98,34	0	0
Albania	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Finland	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Slovenia	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
FYR Macedonia	0	0	0	99,18	0,82	0
----------------------------------------
Belarus	0	0	0	0,82	99,18	0
Israel	0	0	0	0	100,00	0
Estonia	0	0	0	0	100,00	0
Cyprus	0	0	0	0	100,00	0
Georgia	0	0	0	0	100,00	0
Luxembourg	0	0	0	0	100,00	0
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	0	100,00	0
Armenia	0	0	0	0	100,00	0
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0	99,37	0,63
----------------------------------------
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	0	0,63	99,37
Lithuania	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Latvia	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Moldova	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
San Marino	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Kosovo	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Malta	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0	0	100,00

The inertia of the new ranking calculation method can be seen clearly here. The Germany-Sweden fight for pot 1 looks like a done deal already after Sweden's unexpected bad result against Turkey.

Much of the tension is concentrated in the fight for pots 2 and 3. Pots 5 and 6 and a large part of pot 4 seem already established.

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.