This is how the points and ranks could change for these teams:
| Maldives | India | |
| Maldives win | 3,42 pts | -3,42 pts |
| draw | 0,92 pts | -0,92 pts |
| India win | -1,58 pts | 1.58 pts |
| Maldives PSO-win | 2,17 pts | -0,92 pts |
| India PSO-win | 0,92 pts | 0,33 pts |
| max rank | min rank | |
| India | 94 | 97 |
| Maldives | 151 | 151 |
In the table below I've used their current points and positions.
One uncertainty in this calculation: I assumed the I-factor for matches in the CONCACAF Nations League Qualifying competition is 15.
Best movers:
6 - Ukraine
5 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kenya
Worst movers:
-6 - Ghana, Slovenia
-5 - Costa Rica, Bhutan
Best movers in the top 50:
6 - Ukraine
5 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Worst movers in the top 50:
-5 - Costa Rica
-4 - Iceland
Three teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Lebanon (77 - 79 in June 2018)
Luxembourg (82 - 83 in December 2017)
Kosovo (138 - 141 in June 2018)
Two teams will drop to new lows:
Bahamas (210 - 208 in August 2015)
Turks and Caicos Islands (210 - 207 in October 2012)
Two teams return to their best ever ranking:
Belgium (1 in November 2015)
India (94 in February 1996 - when India doesn't lose directly against Maldives)
September 2018 rank - Team - September 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1729 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 1 | France | 1729 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1663 | 0 | 6,0 |
| 4 | Croatia | 1634 | 0 | -9,0 |
| 5 | Uruguay | 1632 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 6 | England | 1612 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 7 | Portugal | 1606 | 0 | 7,0 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 1598 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 9 | Spain | 1597 | 0 | 17,0 |
| 10 | Denmark | 1581 | -1 | 1,0 |
| 11 | Argentina | 1575 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 12 | Chile | 1568 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 12 | Germany | 1568 | 3 | 7,0 |
| 14 | Colombia | 1567 | 0 | 4,0 |
| 15 | Sweden | 1550 | -2 | -15,0 |
| 15 | Mexico | 1550 | 1 | -10,0 |
| 17 | Netherlands | 1540 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 18 | Poland | 1537 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 19 | Wales | 1536 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 20 | Italy | 1526 | 1 | -6,0 |
| 21 | Peru | 1525 | -1 | -10,0 |
| 22 | USA | 1510 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 23 | Tunisia | 1503 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 24 | Austria | 1499 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 25 | Senegal | 1492 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 26 | Slovakia | 1491 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 27 | Romania | 1489 | 1 | -1,0 |
| 28 | Northern Ireland | 1487 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 29 | Ukraine | 1483 | 6 | 15,0 |
| 30 | Republic of Ireland | 1478 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 31 | Paraguay | 1477 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 32 | Venezuela | 1476 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 33 | Iran | 1474 | -1 | 3,0 |
| 34 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1468 | 5 | 16,0 |
| 35 | Serbia | 1463 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 36 | Iceland | 1461 | -4 | -10,0 |
| 37 | Costa Rica | 1460 | -5 | -11,0 |
| 38 | Turkey | 1456 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 39 | Scotland | 1448 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 40 | Congo DR | 1447 | -3 | -9,0 |
| 41 | Montenegro | 1444 | 0 | 4,0 |
| 42 | Greece | 1433 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 43 | Australia | 1431 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 44 | Bulgaria | 1430 | 3 | 14,0 |
| 45 | Morocco | 1425 | 1 | 7,0 |
| 46 | Russia | 1423 | 3 | 13,0 |
| 47 | Czech Republic | 1418 | -3 | -12,0 |
| 48 | Nigeria | 1415 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 49 | Hungary | 1409 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 50 | Cameroon | 1408 | -3 | -8,0 |
| 51 | Ghana | 1407 | -6 | -17,0 |
| 52 | Norway | 1405 | 1 | -1,0 |
| 53 | Jamaica | 1401 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 54 | Japan | 1398 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 55 | Korea Republic | 1395 | 2 | 8,0 |
| 56 | Burkina Faso | 1391 | -4 | -17,0 |
| 57 | Albania | 1383 | 1 | -1,0 |
| 58 | Ecuador | 1378 | 2 | 2,0 |
| 58 | Finland | 1378 | 4 | 14,0 |
| 58 | Bolivia | 1378 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 61 | Slovenia | 1376 | -6 | -16,0 |
| 62 | Honduras | 1368 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 63 | Mali | 1365 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 64 | Egypt | 1364 | 1 | 9,0 |
| 65 | Guinea | 1353 | 2 | 9,0 |
| 66 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1351 | 1 | 7,0 |
| 67 | Cape Verde Islands | 1350 | -3 | -6,0 |
| 68 | FYR Macedonia | 1344 | 2 | 8,0 |
| 69 | Algeria | 1343 | -3 | -8,0 |
| 70 | Panama | 1339 | -1 | -4,0 |
| 71 | Saudi Arabia | 1337 | -1 | 1,0 |
| 72 | El Salvador | 1332 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 73 | South Africa | 1325 | 1 | -2,0 |
| 74 | Syria | 1322 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 75 | Zambia | 1316 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 76 | China PR | 1313 | -1 | -7,0 |
| 77 | Lebanon | 1308 | 2 | 4,0 |
| 77 | United Arab Emirates | 1308 | 0 | -4,0 |
| 79 | Canada | 1307 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 80 | Belarus | 1304 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 81 | Curacao | 1303 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 82 | Luxembourg | 1292 | 3 | 6,0 |
| 83 | Uganda | 1291 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 84 | Congo | 1289 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 85 | Oman | 1287 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 86 | Cyprus | 1283 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 87 | Gabon | 1274 | -1 | -10,0 |
| 88 | Benin | 1273 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 89 | Iraq | 1272 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 90 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1269 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 91 | Kyrgyzstan | 1265 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 92 | Faroe Islands | 1261 | -2 | -7,0 |
| 93 | Georgia | 1254 | 3 | 12,0 |
| 94 | India | 1248 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 95 | Israel | 1247 | -2 | -9,0 |
| 95 | Qatar | 1247 | 3 | 11,0 |
| 97 | Uzbekistan | 1245 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 98 | Estonia | 1240 | -4 | -10,0 |
| 99 | Libya | 1226 | 2 | 2,0 |
| 100 | Palestine | 1225 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 100 | Armenia | 1225 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 102 | Vietnam | 1220 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 103 | Mauritania | 1217 | 3 | 17,0 |
| 104 | Haiti | 1212 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 105 | Niger | 1207 | -2 | -9,0 |
| 106 | Madagascar | 1205 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 107 | Kenya | 1204 | 5 | 22,0 |
| 108 | Azerbaijan | 1202 | -3 | -5,0 |
| 109 | Korea DPR | 1196 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 110 | Jordan | 1189 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 111 | Central African Republic | 1187 | -3 | -9,0 |
| 112 | Bahrain | 1181 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 113 | Mozambique | 1175 | 1 | -1,0 |
| 114 | Sierra Leone | 1172 | -3 | -16,0 |
| 114 | Philippines | 1172 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 116 | Namibia | 1170 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 117 | Zimbabwe | 1167 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 118 | Kazakhstan | 1160 | -2 | -7,0 |
| 119 | New Zealand | 1157 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 120 | Tajikistan | 1156 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 121 | Guinea-Bissau | 1149 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 122 | Thailand | 1144 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 123 | Togo | 1139 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 123 | Chinese Taipei | 1139 | 2 | 4,0 |
| 125 | Malawi | 1129 | -2 | -11,0 |
| 126 | Lithuania | 1123 | 1 | -7,0 |
| 127 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1122 | -1 | -10,0 |
| 128 | Andorra | 1121 | 2 | 1,0 |
| 128 | Nicaragua | 1121 | 4 | 5,0 |
| 130 | Turkmenistan | 1120 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 131 | Latvia | 1116 | -2 | -6,0 |
| 132 | Sudan | 1114 | -4 | -14,0 |
| 133 | Yemen | 1112 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 134 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1109 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 135 | Angola | 1108 | 2 | 12,0 |
| 136 | Swaziland | 1101 | -2 | -4,0 |
| 137 | Rwanda | 1093 | -1 | -7,0 |
| 138 | Myanmar | 1092 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 138 | Kosovo | 1092 | 3 | 12,0 |
| 140 | Tanzania | 1089 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 141 | Equatorial Guinea | 1086 | 2 | 14,0 |
| 142 | Botswana | 1077 | -3 | -12,0 |
| 143 | Hong Kong | 1076 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 144 | Solomon Islands | 1073 | -1 | 1,0 |
| 145 | Lesotho | 1070 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 146 | Afghanistan | 1068 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 147 | Guatemala | 1064 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 148 | Burundi | 1061 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 149 | Ethiopia | 1060 | 2 | 16,0 |
| 149 | Comoros | 1060 | 0 | 8,0 |
| 151 | Maldives | 1046 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 152 | Dominican Republic | 1040 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 153 | Suriname | 1035 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 154 | New Caledonia | 1032 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 155 | Liberia | 1023 | 3 | 7,0 |
| 156 | Mauritius | 1022 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 157 | Tahiti | 1020 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 158 | South Sudan | 1019 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 159 | Kuwait | 1014 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 160 | Belize | 1004 | 3 | 5,0 |
| 160 | Nepal | 1004 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 162 | Barbados | 1003 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 163 | Vanuatu | 1000 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 164 | Indonesia | 997 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 165 | Papua New Guinea | 984 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 166 | St. Lucia | 982 | 4 | 10,0 |
| 166 | Singapore | 982 | 3 | 6,0 |
| 168 | Fiji | 981 | -3 | -4,0 |
| 169 | Cambodia | 979 | -3 | -5,0 |
| 170 | Grenada | 976 | -2 | -4,0 |
| 171 | Malaysia | 972 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 171 | Gambia | 972 | 1 | 8,0 |
| 173 | Moldova | 958 | 2 | 1,0 |
| 174 | Chad | 956 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 175 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 955 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 175 | Puerto Rico | 955 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 177 | Dominica | 953 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 178 | Liechtenstein | 947 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 179 | Laos | 946 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 179 | Cuba | 946 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 181 | Bermuda | 940 | -3 | -8,0 |
| 182 | Guyana | 937 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 183 | Malta | 928 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 184 | Macau | 925 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 185 | Aruba | 924 | 3 | 8,0 |
| 186 | Mongolia | 922 | 0 | 2,0 |
| 187 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 920 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 188 | Bhutan | 917 | -5 | -15,0 |
| 189 | Seychelles | 913 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 190 | Timor-Leste | 909 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 191 | American Samoa | 908 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 191 | Cook Islands | 908 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 193 | Bangladesh | 907 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 193 | Guam | 907 | -3 | -5,0 |
| 195 | Brunei Darussalam | 903 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 196 | Samoa | 896 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 196 | Djibouti | 896 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 198 | Gibraltar | 891 | -3 | -9,0 |
| 199 | Sri Lanka | 890 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 199 | Pakistan | 890 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 201 | US Virgin Islands | 889 | -2 | -3,0 |
| 202 | Cayman Islands | 878 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 203 | British Virgin Islands | 872 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 204 | San Marino | 871 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 205 | Montserrat | 870 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 206 | Tonga | 868 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 206 | Eritrea | 868 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 206 | Somalia | 868 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 206 | Anguilla | 868 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 210 | Bahamas | 862 | -4 | -6,0 |
| 210 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 862 | -4 | -6,0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
I have a similar ranking as yours! I also have doubts on Concacaf Nations League qualifiers. I´m using a factor of 10 instead of 15. There´s a match Ecuador-Jamaica that´s not included in FIFA´s website as a friendly. It was played however. Let´s see what happens next Thu.
ReplyDeleteIvan, FIFA will calculate their ranking based on the matches that are included in their fixture-list. I don't know the exact reason why the Ecuador-Jamaica friendly was excluded, but for now I've excluded the match also.
DeleteThe September world ranking will be the 289th ever published. No team moving more than six places has only happened twice before. In May 2005, the best mover was Zimbabwe (+5) and the worst mover was Mali (-4). In May 2012, the best mover was Jamaica (+5) and the worst mover was DR Congo (-5).
ReplyDeleteBoth times fewer than a dozen games took place between the April and May rankings, all of them friendlies. By contrast, this month saw full rounds of competitive fixtures on three continents. With this much action, the lack of movement is unprecedented. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
And now the points gaps in the ranking are still relatively small.
DeleteWhen the gaps will have settled to more natural values, big movements will be even more scarce with the used I-factors and the 600-coefficient in the formula.
The figs New system doesn't give any motivation for nation teams to have real movement on ranking. At least, 3wins needed to have same points of one win of previous system.
ReplyDeleteThe fifa New system doesn't give any motivation for nation teams to have real movement on ranking. At least, 3wins needed to have same points of one win of previous system.
ReplyDelete148 of 211 teams will move up or down on the ranking to be published next THU. So there is great a deal of movement. During the world cup, there were only 3 matches in which both the teams didn't move. So I don't see how teams don't move much with this new ranking system .
ReplyDeleteMoving one place up or down is not what I call great deal of movement.
DeleteSpain won two competitive matches against England and Croatia and moved zero.
Spain were 17 points away from Switzerland, 8th in the ranking .Now they are only 1 pt away .
DeleteWas about to say, what a boring ranking this is. Loads of matches played and hardly any movement. All the teams are now permanently locked in their positions for years to come.
ReplyDeleteEven during FIFA calendar friendlies, there's a lot of movement . These are my numbers .http://elofifa.blogspot.com/2018/09/matches-and-elo-points.html?m=1
ReplyDeleteIt's a pity that some nation like Montenegro do not enter today in the ranking. With this badly setted constants they have improvised, a nation starting from scratch will remain after the 180th position for years. I am curious to see their faces in about two or three years, when the ranking will start to become pretty fixed and the movements will be increasingly difficult, people probably will start to deride again them.
ReplyDeleteEven though we have no new competitive teams, we have something close that in the form of teams that suffered a lack of recent competitive games prior to the launch of the new system. For example Guatemala (147th in FIFA, 15th in CONCACAF), Cuba (179th in FIFA, 25th in CONCACAF) and Kuwait (159th in FIFA, 31st in AFC) are ranked way lower than they deserve to be.
DeleteIn Europe, a case can be made for Kosovo to become the next Montenegro. The 0-1-9 record in the World Cup qualifying isn't the whole picture of their potential.
Are there any chance for Egypt to climb CAF table again if they won their AFCON qualifier games ?
ReplyDeleteEgypt can gain ca. 38 points by winning their remaining qualifiers which would place them about 8th in CAF (depending on what the other teams do). The final tournament is also held before the World Cup preliminary draw and that offers a chance to gain more than 100 points and possibly take the 1st place in CAF. Easier said than done, of course.
DeleteIsn't afghanistan supposed to at least be in 131st inshallah
ReplyDeleteEd, I'm curious about this game. You've treated this tournament as a friendly whose group phase games had a K of 10 and knock out games a K of 5. I did the same thing .I know knock out games fell out of the FIFA calendar and were given more points. I don't know how that would make sense since knock out games should be given more importance .Something else , I don't know whether India or Maldives should lose any points since it is a knock out game, even if it's a friendly one .FIFA hasn't been clear enough with their new ranking system.
ReplyDeleteI'm talking about the South Asian championship and the final today.
DeleteTalliholic, the matches in the South Asian Championship were always treated by FIFA as friendlies, group matches and knock-out matches. I think they will be treated as friendlies also under the new calculation method. So the only thing to take into account is whether the match is played inside or outside the September International Match Window from the 3rd up to and including the 11th. So the scheduling of this tournament indeed leads to the semi-finals and final weighted with only 5 and the group matches with 10.
ReplyDeleteThe rule that teams can't lose points in knock-out matches only counts for knock-out matches in 'final competitions'. FIFA is indeed vague about which tournaments to include in this rule. But the treatment of the COSAFA Cup knock-out matches in June indicated that regional tournaments (like this South Asian Championship) at least don't fall into this category.
Thanks for the feedback! It helps a lot.
DeleteA tie for the top place! That's a first isn't it?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like. It doesn´t make sense to me thou. FIFA rounds numbers ONLY WHEN publishing the ranking. That´s how Belgium and France will be tied, for Belgium is actually number 1 with 1729.25 pts and France number 2 with 1729.12. For calculation purposes, among matches, FIFA does not round numbers. elorating.net calculations make more sense, since numbers are rounded for both calculation and ranking purposes.
DeleteThat's not quite true, talliholic. Classic elo works with UNrounded numbers in calculation and rounds for ranking purposes. Teams with the same rounded elo-rating occupy the same ranking spot, while their unrounded rating differs. FIFA does the same now.
DeleteIf Classic elo didn´t round points earned by a team each match, why does positive numbers have their exact negative number 100% of games? I mean, if A team wins 5 points, B teams wins -5 when you round points gained each match. If you round those gains, a low percentage of all matches will show +6 and -5 or +5 and +6. I´ve done that exercise many times, when you round old ratings and points gained just to display the information, not actually calculate. I know both systems, Classic Elo and FIFA Elo use Unrounded numbers to calculate, but Classic ELo rounds the numbers gained (eloratings.net/latest). I´ve been studying both rankings for a couple of months now, so if I´m wrong correct me with an explanation. Thanks for your feedback.
DeleteOn the eloratings website you see only rounded points exchanged per match (indeed always the same plus or minus) and ratings.
DeleteI actually do calculate the elo-points myself (because I need them for predictions) but with rounded ratings as I don't want to recalculate all unrounded ratings when Kirill inserts a batch of old matches from the 1930's or so (which he does infrequently).
After a couple of months I find in my calculated elo-ratings small differences of plus or minus 1 point for quite a few teams, compared to the then published rounded elo-ratings.
For me that's enough proof that Kirill works with unrounded ratings and only at the very last moment (when presenting ratings and exchanged points) rounds his numbers.
And with regard to the same plus and minus exchanged points per match: when using rounding to the nearest integer then 5,2 is rounded to 5 and -5,2 to -5 and 5,6 to 6 and -5,6 to -6.
In case of exactly a 0.5 fraction one can choose to round away from zero: 5,5 to 6 and -5,5 to -6. So that just depends on the used rounding methods, but the same plus and minus exchanged points for all matches can be achieved quite easily.
I´m going to take last game between Maldives and India (sep 15th) to show this weird Phenomenon. Unrounded old ratings: Maldives 1045.64 and India 1247.82. On the updated ranking (Rounding the ratings), Maldives (1046) and India (1248). Of course, the unrounded old ratings are used to make the calculations of points exchanged. Maldives won that game (+3.42); India lost (-3.42); new ratings (1049.07) and (1244.40). If we round the new ratings, they would be (1049) and (1244). In the end, Maldives earned 3 points and India lost 4 points. Eventually, we will see that exchange disparity when rounding points earned each game. This is what I have. http://elofifa.blogspot.com/search/label/Latest%20Games
DeleteTalliholic, if you really want to round the exchanged points and the ratings after each match, I would in your example present the following:
DeleteMDV +3 new points 1049
IND -3 new points 1244
because India didn't lose a rounded 4 points but only 3, the same number of rounded points Maldives gained.
In general I wouldn't round anything or round on f.i. 1 decimal when presenting these numbers. Only when presenting a ranking I would round the ratings to integers.
Since Fifa has published the new ranking we know now that i=15 for the CNL qualifiers. I have instead different numbers for India and Maldives.
ReplyDeleteSorry to be that obstinate. But this website seems to see it the way I do: https://footyrankings.com/fifa-ranking-september-2018-calculation-details/
ReplyDeleteNo need to be sorry, talliholic. We live in a free world, you know :)
ReplyDelete