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Wednesday, September 12, 2018

FIFA ranking: September 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday September 20th. Only one match to be played until then: the final this Saturday of the South Asian Championship between India and Maldives.

This is how the points and ranks could change for these teams:
Maldives       India
Maldives win  3,42 pts -3,42 pts
draw  0,92 pts -0,92 pts
India win -1,58 pts  1.58 pts
Maldives PSO-win  2,17 pts -0,92 pts
India PSO-win  0,92 pts  0,33 pts
      max rank   min rank
India 94 97
Maldives 151 151

In the table below I've used their current points and positions.

 One uncertainty in this calculation: I assumed the I-factor for matches in the CONCACAF Nations League Qualifying competition is 15.

 Best movers:
6 - Ukraine
5 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kenya

 Worst movers:
-6 - Ghana, Slovenia
-5 - Costa Rica, Bhutan

 Best movers in the top 50:
6 - Ukraine
5 - Bosnia-Herzegovina

 Worst movers in the top 50:
-5 - Costa Rica
-4 - Iceland
Three teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Lebanon (77 - 79 in June 2018)
Luxembourg (82 - 83 in December 2017)
Kosovo (138 - 141 in June 2018)

 Two teams will drop to new lows:
Bahamas (210 - 208 in August 2015)
Turks and Caicos Islands (210 - 207 in October 2012)

 Two teams return to their best ever ranking:
Belgium (1 in November 2015)
India (94 in February 1996 - when India doesn't lose directly against Maldives)

September 2018 rank - Team - September 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 Belgium 1729 1 6,0
1 France 1729 0 3,0
3 Brazil 1663 0 6,0
4 Croatia 1634 0 -9,0
5 Uruguay 1632 0 5,0
6 England 1612 0 -3,0
7 Portugal 1606 0 7,0
8 Switzerland 1598 0 1,0
9 Spain 1597 0 17,0
10 Denmark 1581 -1 1,0
11 Argentina 1575 0 1,0
12 Chile 1568 0 -2,0
12 Germany 1568 3 7,0
14 Colombia 1567 0 4,0
15 Sweden 1550 -2 -15,0
15 Mexico 1550 1 -10,0
17 Netherlands 1540 0 0,0
18 Poland 1537 0 -1,0
19 Wales 1536 0 0,0
20 Italy 1526 1 -6,0
21 Peru 1525 -1 -10,0
22 USA 1510 0 2,0
23 Tunisia 1503 1 5,0
24 Austria 1499 -1 -3,0
25 Senegal 1492 -1 -6,0
26 Slovakia 1491 0 -2,0
27 Romania 1489 1 -1,0
28 Northern Ireland 1487 -1 -5,0
29 Ukraine 1483 6 15,0
30 Republic of Ireland 1478 -1 -6,0
31 Paraguay 1477 -1 0,0
32 Venezuela 1476 -1 0,0
33 Iran 1474 -1 3,0
34 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1468 5 16,0
35 Serbia 1463 1 4,0
36 Iceland 1461 -4 -10,0
37 Costa Rica 1460 -5 -11,0
38 Turkey 1456 0 1,0
39 Scotland 1448 1 4,0
40 Congo DR 1447 -3 -9,0
41 Montenegro 1444 0 4,0
42 Greece 1433 0 -3,0
43 Australia 1431 0 0,0
44 Bulgaria 1430 3 14,0
45 Morocco 1425 1 7,0
46 Russia 1423 3 13,0
47 Czech Republic 1418 -3 -12,0
48 Nigeria 1415 1 5,0
49 Hungary 1409 2 0,0
50 Cameroon 1408 -3 -8,0
51 Ghana 1407 -6 -17,0
52 Norway 1405 1 -1,0
53 Jamaica 1401 1 1,0
54 Japan 1398 1 6,0
55 Korea Republic 1395 2 8,0
56 Burkina Faso 1391 -4 -17,0
57 Albania 1383 1 -1,0
58 Ecuador 1378 2 2,0
58 Finland 1378 4 14,0
58 Bolivia 1378 1 0,0
61 Slovenia 1376 -6 -16,0
62 Honduras 1368 -1 0,0
63 Mali 1365 0 5,0
64 Egypt 1364 1 9,0
65 Guinea 1353 2 9,0
66 Cote d'Ivoire 1351 1 7,0
67 Cape Verde Islands 1350 -3 -6,0
68 FYR Macedonia 1344 2 8,0
69 Algeria 1343 -3 -8,0
70 Panama 1339 -1 -4,0
71 Saudi Arabia 1337 -1 1,0
72 El Salvador 1332 0 0,0
73 South Africa 1325 1 -2,0
74 Syria 1322 -1 -6,0
75 Zambia 1316 1 1,0
76 China PR 1313 -1 -7,0
77 Lebanon 1308 2 4,0
77 United Arab Emirates 1308 0 -4,0
79 Canada 1307 0 3,0
80 Belarus 1304 -2 -2,0
81 Curacao 1303 0 3,0
82 Luxembourg 1292 3 6,0
83 Uganda 1291 -1 -5,0
84 Congo 1289 -1 -3,0
85 Oman 1287 -1 -1,0
86 Cyprus 1283 1 3,0
87 Gabon 1274 -1 -10,0
88 Benin 1273 0 -3,0
89 Iraq 1272 0 -2,0
90 Trinidad and Tobago 1269 1 5,0
91 Kyrgyzstan 1265 1 5,0
92 Faroe Islands 1261 -2 -7,0
93 Georgia 1254 3 12,0
94 India 1248 2 6,0
95 Israel 1247 -2 -9,0
95 Qatar 1247 3 11,0
97 Uzbekistan 1245 -2 -2,0
98 Estonia 1240 -4 -10,0
99 Libya 1226 2 2,0
100 Palestine 1225 -1 -5,0
100 Armenia 1225 0 -2,0
102 Vietnam 1220 0 0,0
103 Mauritania 1217 3 17,0
104 Haiti 1212 0 0,0
105 Niger 1207 -2 -9,0
106 Madagascar 1205 1 6,0
107 Kenya 1204 5 22,0
108 Azerbaijan 1202 -3 -5,0
109 Korea DPR 1196 -1 0,0
110 Jordan 1189 0 -3,0
111 Central African Republic 1187 -3 -9,0
112 Bahrain 1181 1 1,0
113 Mozambique 1175 1 -1,0
114 Sierra Leone 1172 -3 -16,0
114 Philippines 1172 1 0,0
116 Namibia 1170 1 4,0
117 Zimbabwe 1167 1 3,0
118 Kazakhstan 1160 -2 -7,0
119 New Zealand 1157 0 0,0
120 Tajikistan 1156 0 0,0
121 Guinea-Bissau 1149 0 1,0
122 Thailand 1144 0 0,0
123 Togo 1139 1 3,0
123 Chinese Taipei 1139 2 4,0
125 Malawi 1129 -2 -11,0
126 Lithuania 1123 1 -7,0
127 Antigua and Barbuda 1122 -1 -10,0
128 Andorra 1121 2 1,0
128 Nicaragua 1121 4 5,0
130 Turkmenistan 1120 0 0,0
131 Latvia 1116 -2 -6,0
132 Sudan 1114 -4 -14,0
133 Yemen 1112 0 0,0
134 St. Kitts and Nevis 1109 1 5,0
135 Angola 1108 2 12,0
136 Swaziland 1101 -2 -4,0
137 Rwanda 1093 -1 -7,0
138 Myanmar 1092 0 0,0
138 Kosovo 1092 3 12,0
140 Tanzania 1089 0 5,0
141 Equatorial Guinea 1086 2 14,0
142 Botswana 1077 -3 -12,0
143 Hong Kong 1076 -1 0,0
144 Solomon Islands 1073 -1 1,0
145 Lesotho 1070 1 6,0
146 Afghanistan 1068 -1 0,0
147 Guatemala 1064 -1 0,0
148 Burundi 1061 0 5,0
149 Ethiopia 1060 2 16,0
149 Comoros 1060 0 8,0
151 Maldives 1046 -1 -2,0
152 Dominican Republic 1040 0 0,0
153 Suriname 1035 0 -1,0
154 New Caledonia 1032 0 0,0
155 Liberia 1023 3 7,0
156 Mauritius 1022 -1 -6,0
157 Tahiti 1020 0 0,0
158 South Sudan 1019 -2 -5,0
159 Kuwait 1014 0 2,0
160 Belize 1004 3 5,0
160 Nepal 1004 1 0,0
162 Barbados 1003 -2 -2,0
163 Vanuatu 1000 -1 0,0
164 Indonesia 997 0 5,0
165 Papua New Guinea 984 1 0,0
166 St. Lucia 982 4 10,0
166 Singapore 982 3 6,0
168 Fiji 981 -3 -4,0
169 Cambodia 979 -3 -5,0
170 Grenada 976 -2 -4,0
171 Malaysia 972 0 1,0
171 Gambia 972 1 8,0
173 Moldova 958 2 1,0
174 Chad 956 2 0,0
175 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 955 -2 -5,0
175 Puerto Rico 955 -2 -5,0
177 Dominica 953 0 1,0
178 Liechtenstein 947 2 3,0
179 Laos 946 -1 -2,0
179 Cuba 946 2 6,0
181 Bermuda 940 -3 -8,0
182 Guyana 937 0 1,0
183 Malta 928 1 0,0
184 Macau 925 1 1,0
185 Aruba 924 3 8,0
186 Mongolia 922 0 2,0
187 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 920 -1 0,0
188 Bhutan 917 -5 -15,0
189 Seychelles 913 -1 -3,0
190 Timor-Leste 909 0 -3,0
191 American Samoa 908 1 0,0
191 Cook Islands 908 1 0,0
193 Bangladesh 907 1 3,0
193 Guam 907 -3 -5,0
195 Brunei Darussalam 903 0 3,0
196 Samoa 896 1 0,0
196 Djibouti 896 1 0,0
198 Gibraltar 891 -3 -9,0
199 Sri Lanka 890 1 2,0
199 Pakistan 890 2 6,0
201 US Virgin Islands 889 -2 -3,0
202 Cayman Islands 878 0 -2,0
203 British Virgin Islands 872 1 0,0
204 San Marino 871 -1 -5,0
205 Montserrat 870 -1 -2,0
206 Tonga 868 0 0,0
206 Eritrea 868 0 0,0
206 Somalia 868 0 0,0
206 Anguilla 868 0 0,0
210 Bahamas 862 -4 -6,0
210 Turks and Caicos Islands 862 -4 -6,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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30 comments:

  1. Iván PérezSeptember 13, 2018 at 12:23 AM

    I have a similar ranking as yours! I also have doubts on Concacaf Nations League qualifiers. I´m using a factor of 10 instead of 15. There´s a match Ecuador-Jamaica that´s not included in FIFA´s website as a friendly. It was played however. Let´s see what happens next Thu.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdSeptember 13, 2018 at 8:45 AM

      Ivan, FIFA will calculate their ranking based on the matches that are included in their fixture-list. I don't know the exact reason why the Ecuador-Jamaica friendly was excluded, but for now I've excluded the match also.

      Delete
  2. TimoteusSeptember 13, 2018 at 6:08 AM

    The September world ranking will be the 289th ever published. No team moving more than six places has only happened twice before. In May 2005, the best mover was Zimbabwe (+5) and the worst mover was Mali (-4). In May 2012, the best mover was Jamaica (+5) and the worst mover was DR Congo (-5).

    Both times fewer than a dozen games took place between the April and May rankings, all of them friendlies. By contrast, this month saw full rounds of competitive fixtures on three continents. With this much action, the lack of movement is unprecedented. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdSeptember 13, 2018 at 8:40 AM

      And now the points gaps in the ranking are still relatively small.
      When the gaps will have settled to more natural values, big movements will be even more scarce with the used I-factors and the 600-coefficient in the formula.

      Delete
  3. TarekSeptember 13, 2018 at 2:21 PM

    The figs New system doesn't give any motivation for nation teams to have real movement on ranking. At least, 3wins needed to have same points of one win of previous system.

    ReplyDelete
  4. TarekSeptember 13, 2018 at 2:23 PM

    The fifa New system doesn't give any motivation for nation teams to have real movement on ranking. At least, 3wins needed to have same points of one win of previous system.

    ReplyDelete
  5. talliholicSeptember 13, 2018 at 3:51 PM

    148 of 211 teams will move up or down on the ranking to be published next THU. So there is great a deal of movement. During the world cup, there were only 3 matches in which both the teams didn't move. So I don't see how teams don't move much with this new ranking system .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Soccer-DB.infoSeptember 13, 2018 at 3:55 PM

      Moving one place up or down is not what I call great deal of movement.
      Spain won two competitive matches against England and Croatia and moved zero.

      Delete
    2. talliholicSeptember 13, 2018 at 4:00 PM

      Spain were 17 points away from Switzerland, 8th in the ranking .Now they are only 1 pt away .

      Delete
  6. Soccer-DB.infoSeptember 13, 2018 at 3:52 PM

    Was about to say, what a boring ranking this is. Loads of matches played and hardly any movement. All the teams are now permanently locked in their positions for years to come.

    ReplyDelete
  7. talliholicSeptember 13, 2018 at 3:56 PM

    Even during FIFA calendar friendlies, there's a lot of movement . These are my numbers .http://elofifa.blogspot.com/2018/09/matches-and-elo-points.html?m=1

    ReplyDelete
  8. jos235September 13, 2018 at 9:57 PM

    It's a pity that some nation like Montenegro do not enter today in the ranking. With this badly setted constants they have improvised, a nation starting from scratch will remain after the 180th position for years. I am curious to see their faces in about two or three years, when the ranking will start to become pretty fixed and the movements will be increasingly difficult, people probably will start to deride again them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TimoteusSeptember 15, 2018 at 8:23 AM

      Even though we have no new competitive teams, we have something close that in the form of teams that suffered a lack of recent competitive games prior to the launch of the new system. For example Guatemala (147th in FIFA, 15th in CONCACAF), Cuba (179th in FIFA, 25th in CONCACAF) and Kuwait (159th in FIFA, 31st in AFC) are ranked way lower than they deserve to be.

      In Europe, a case can be made for Kosovo to become the next Montenegro. The 0-1-9 record in the World Cup qualifying isn't the whole picture of their potential.

      Delete
  9. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2018 at 12:28 PM

    Are there any chance for Egypt to climb CAF table again if they won their AFCON qualifier games ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TimoteusSeptember 15, 2018 at 8:07 AM

      Egypt can gain ca. 38 points by winning their remaining qualifiers which would place them about 8th in CAF (depending on what the other teams do). The final tournament is also held before the World Cup preliminary draw and that offers a chance to gain more than 100 points and possibly take the 1st place in CAF. Easier said than done, of course.

      Delete
  10. UnknownSeptember 14, 2018 at 10:25 PM

    Isn't afghanistan supposed to at least be in 131st inshallah

    ReplyDelete
  11. talliholicSeptember 15, 2018 at 3:02 PM

    Ed, I'm curious about this game. You've treated this tournament as a friendly whose group phase games had a K of 10 and knock out games a K of 5. I did the same thing .I know knock out games fell out of the FIFA calendar and were given more points. I don't know how that would make sense since knock out games should be given more importance .Something else , I don't know whether India or Maldives should lose any points since it is a knock out game, even if it's a friendly one .FIFA hasn't been clear enough with their new ranking system.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. talliholicSeptember 15, 2018 at 3:02 PM

      I'm talking about the South Asian championship and the final today.

      Delete
  12. EdSeptember 15, 2018 at 4:01 PM

    Talliholic, the matches in the South Asian Championship were always treated by FIFA as friendlies, group matches and knock-out matches. I think they will be treated as friendlies also under the new calculation method. So the only thing to take into account is whether the match is played inside or outside the September International Match Window from the 3rd up to and including the 11th. So the scheduling of this tournament indeed leads to the semi-finals and final weighted with only 5 and the group matches with 10.
    The rule that teams can't lose points in knock-out matches only counts for knock-out matches in 'final competitions'. FIFA is indeed vague about which tournaments to include in this rule. But the treatment of the COSAFA Cup knock-out matches in June indicated that regional tournaments (like this South Asian Championship) at least don't fall into this category.

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousSeptember 18, 2018 at 1:13 PM

    A tie for the top place! That's a first isn't it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. talliholicSeptember 19, 2018 at 1:11 AM

      It looks like. It doesn´t make sense to me thou. FIFA rounds numbers ONLY WHEN publishing the ranking. That´s how Belgium and France will be tied, for Belgium is actually number 1 with 1729.25 pts and France number 2 with 1729.12. For calculation purposes, among matches, FIFA does not round numbers. elorating.net calculations make more sense, since numbers are rounded for both calculation and ranking purposes.

      Delete
    2. EdSeptember 19, 2018 at 8:41 AM

      That's not quite true, talliholic. Classic elo works with UNrounded numbers in calculation and rounds for ranking purposes. Teams with the same rounded elo-rating occupy the same ranking spot, while their unrounded rating differs. FIFA does the same now.

      Delete
    3. talliholicSeptember 19, 2018 at 5:06 PM

      If Classic elo didn´t round points earned by a team each match, why does positive numbers have their exact negative number 100% of games? I mean, if A team wins 5 points, B teams wins -5 when you round points gained each match. If you round those gains, a low percentage of all matches will show +6 and -5 or +5 and +6. I´ve done that exercise many times, when you round old ratings and points gained just to display the information, not actually calculate. I know both systems, Classic Elo and FIFA Elo use Unrounded numbers to calculate, but Classic ELo rounds the numbers gained (eloratings.net/latest). I´ve been studying both rankings for a couple of months now, so if I´m wrong correct me with an explanation. Thanks for your feedback.

      Delete
    4. EdSeptember 19, 2018 at 5:55 PM

      On the eloratings website you see only rounded points exchanged per match (indeed always the same plus or minus) and ratings.
      I actually do calculate the elo-points myself (because I need them for predictions) but with rounded ratings as I don't want to recalculate all unrounded ratings when Kirill inserts a batch of old matches from the 1930's or so (which he does infrequently).
      After a couple of months I find in my calculated elo-ratings small differences of plus or minus 1 point for quite a few teams, compared to the then published rounded elo-ratings.
      For me that's enough proof that Kirill works with unrounded ratings and only at the very last moment (when presenting ratings and exchanged points) rounds his numbers.

      And with regard to the same plus and minus exchanged points per match: when using rounding to the nearest integer then 5,2 is rounded to 5 and -5,2 to -5 and 5,6 to 6 and -5,6 to -6.
      In case of exactly a 0.5 fraction one can choose to round away from zero: 5,5 to 6 and -5,5 to -6. So that just depends on the used rounding methods, but the same plus and minus exchanged points for all matches can be achieved quite easily.

      Delete
    5. talliholicSeptember 19, 2018 at 8:45 PM

      I´m going to take last game between Maldives and India (sep 15th) to show this weird Phenomenon. Unrounded old ratings: Maldives 1045.64 and India 1247.82. On the updated ranking (Rounding the ratings), Maldives (1046) and India (1248). Of course, the unrounded old ratings are used to make the calculations of points exchanged. Maldives won that game (+3.42); India lost (-3.42); new ratings (1049.07) and (1244.40). If we round the new ratings, they would be (1049) and (1244). In the end, Maldives earned 3 points and India lost 4 points. Eventually, we will see that exchange disparity when rounding points earned each game. This is what I have. http://elofifa.blogspot.com/search/label/Latest%20Games

      Delete
    6. EdSeptember 20, 2018 at 1:48 PM

      Talliholic, if you really want to round the exchanged points and the ratings after each match, I would in your example present the following:
      MDV +3 new points 1049
      IND -3 new points 1244
      because India didn't lose a rounded 4 points but only 3, the same number of rounded points Maldives gained.

      In general I wouldn't round anything or round on f.i. 1 decimal when presenting these numbers. Only when presenting a ranking I would round the ratings to integers.

      Delete
  14. jos235September 20, 2018 at 12:55 PM

    Since Fifa has published the new ranking we know now that i=15 for the CNL qualifiers. I have instead different numbers for India and Maldives.

    ReplyDelete
  15. talliholicSeptember 21, 2018 at 12:38 AM

    Sorry to be that obstinate. But this website seems to see it the way I do: https://footyrankings.com/fifa-ranking-september-2018-calculation-details/

    ReplyDelete
  16. EdSeptember 21, 2018 at 7:31 AM

    No need to be sorry, talliholic. We live in a free world, you know :)

    ReplyDelete