FIFA ranking: September 2018 probable ranking

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. The elo-like method was used for the first time for the August 2018 ranking, published on August 16th. With that publication and the accompanying document almost all questions around the new calculation method were answered. FIFA was transparant after all about their starting values, how to handle matches that went to extra time and PSO and in what cases teams don't get points deducted. 


Some minor questions are still unanswered though: 
- what to do with the starting value of completely new teams ? I think a new team will start at the lowest existing value in the prevailing ranking as was the case with the previous FIFA ranking method;
- what competitions are exactly "final competitions" according to FIFA ? Obviously the World Cup and each Continental Final categorize as final competitions. But what about the status of the Confederations Cup and the UEFA Nations League finals (and future other Nations League finals) in this respect ? Based on the August ranking we can at least conclude that regional tournaments like the COSAFA Cup don't fall in this category;
- what I-factor will the CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers have ? It can be anything between 25 (continental final qualifier), 15 (Nations League group phase) or 10 (friendly in IMC-window). I will assume for now 15.
We will cross these bridges once we come to them.

Here is the probable September 2018 ranking, to be published on September 20th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 134 scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list.

Probable September 2018 rank - Team - Probable September 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Belgium	1729	1	6
1	France	1729	0	3
3	Brazil	1663	0	6
4	Uruguay	1632	1	5
5	Croatia	1629	-1	-14
6	England	1614	0	-1
7	Portugal	1611	0	12
8	Switzerland	1603	0	6
9	Spain	1589	0	9
10	Denmark	1586	-1	6
11	Argentina	1575	0	1
12	Sweden	1570	1	5
13	Chile	1567	-1	-3
13	Colombia	1567	1	4
15	Germany	1563	0	2
16	Mexico	1555	0	-5
17	Netherlands	1540	0	0
18	Wales	1536	1	0
19	Poland	1535	-1	-3
20	Italy	1533	1	1
21	Peru	1530	-1	-5
22	USA	1505	0	-3
23	Senegal	1504	1	6
24	Tunisia	1503	0	5
25	Austria	1494	-2	-8
25	Northern Ireland	1494	2	2
27	Romania	1489	1	-1
28	Slovakia	1486	-2	-7
29	Paraguay	1477	1	0
30	Ukraine	1475	5	7
31	Iran	1474	1	3
32	Republic of Ireland	1473	-3	-11
33	Venezuela	1472	-2	-4
34	Serbia	1471	2	12
35	Costa Rica	1465	-3	-6
36	Iceland	1461	-4	-10
36	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1461	3	9
38	Congo DR	1460	-1	4
39	Turkey	1456	-1	1
40	Scotland	1448	0	4
41	Montenegro	1437	0	-3
42	Greece	1433	0	-3
43	Ghana	1432	2	8
44	Czech Republic	1431	0	1
44	Australia	1431	-1	0
46	Morocco	1425	0	7
47	Cameroon	1421	0	5
48	Burkina Faso	1416	4	8
49	Nigeria	1413	0	3
50	Norway	1412	3	6
51	Bulgaria	1408	-4	-8
52	Slovenia	1406	3	14
53	Russia	1404	-4	-6
54	Hungary	1402	-3	-7
55	Jamaica	1401	-1	1
56	Korea Republic	1395	1	8
57	Japan	1394	-2	2
58	Albania	1383	0	-1
59	Ecuador	1378	1	2
59	Finland	1378	3	14
59	Bolivia	1378	0	0
62	Honduras	1368	-1	0
63	Mali	1365	0	5
64	Egypt	1364	1	9
65	Algeria	1355	1	4
66	Guinea	1353	1	9
67	Cote d'Ivoire	1351	0	7
68	Cape Verde Islands	1350	-4	-6
69	FYR Macedonia	1344	1	8
70	Panama	1343	-1	0
71	South Africa	1337	3	10
72	Saudi Arabia	1336	-2	0
73	El Salvador	1332	-1	0
73	Syria	1332	0	4
75	China PR	1318	0	-2
76	Belarus	1312	2	6
77	Zambia	1311	-1	-4
77	United Arab Emirates	1311	0	-1
79	Canada	1307	0	3
80	Uganda	1304	2	8
81	Curacao	1303	0	3
82	Lebanon	1298	-3	-6
83	Luxembourg	1292	2	6
84	Gabon	1291	2	7
85	Congo	1289	-2	-3
86	Oman	1287	-2	-1
87	Benin	1273	1	-3
88	Iraq	1272	1	-2
89	Cyprus	1269	-2	-11
90	Trinidad and Tobago	1264	1	0
91	Faroe Islands	1261	-1	-7
92	Kyrgyzstan	1255	0	-5
93	India	1249	3	7
94	Israel	1247	-1	-9
94	Estonia	1247	0	-3
94	Georgia	1247	2	5
97	Uzbekistan	1245	-2	-2
98	Qatar	1242	0	6
99	Palestine	1225	0	-5
99	Armenia	1225	1	-2
101	Vietnam	1220	1	0
102	Libya	1214	-1	-10
103	Haiti	1212	1	0
104	Azerbaijan	1209	1	2
105	Niger	1207	-2	-9
106	Jordan	1199	4	7
107	Korea DPR	1196	1	0
108	Madagascar	1193	-1	-6
109	Mauritania	1192	-3	-8
110	Mozambique	1188	4	12
111	Central African Republic	1187	-3	-9
112	Bahrain	1186	1	6
113	Sierra Leone	1185	-2	-3
114	Kenya	1179	-2	-3
115	Kazakhstan	1175	1	8
116	Namibia	1170	1	4
117	Philippines	1167	-2	-5
117	Zimbabwe	1167	1	3
119	New Zealand	1157	0	0
120	Tajikistan	1156	0	0
121	Thailand	1144	1	0
122	Togo	1139	2	3
123	Antigua and Barbuda	1137	3	5
124	Guinea-Bissau	1136	-3	-12
125	Chinese Taipei	1134	0	-1
126	Malawi	1129	-3	-11
127	Latvia	1123	2	1
127	Lithuania	1123	0	-7
129	Turkmenistan	1120	1	0
130	Sudan	1114	-2	-14
130	Nicaragua	1114	2	-2
132	Yemen	1112	1	0
133	St. Kitts and Nevis	1109	2	5
134	Andorra	1107	-4	-13
135	Swaziland	1101	-1	-4
136	Angola	1096	1	0
137	Rwanda	1093	-1	-7
138	Myanmar	1092	0	0
138	Kosovo	1092	3	12
140	Botswana	1089	-1	0
141	Equatorial Guinea	1086	2	14
142	Tanzania	1076	-2	-8
142	Hong Kong	1076	0	0
144	Lesotho	1070	2	6
145	Afghanistan	1068	0	0
145	Solomon Islands	1068	-2	-4
147	Guatemala	1064	-1	0
148	Burundi	1049	0	-7
149	Maldives	1048	1	0
150	Ethiopia	1047	1	3
150	Comoros	1047	-1	-5
152	Suriname	1042	1	6
153	Dominican Republic	1040	-1	0
154	New Caledonia	1032	0	0
155	Mauritius	1028	0	0
156	Tahiti	1020	1	0
157	South Sudan	1019	-1	-5
158	Kuwait	1014	1	2
159	Liberia	1012	-1	-4
160	Nepal	1005	1	1
161	Belize	1004	2	5
162	Vanuatu	1000	0	0
163	Fiji	996	2	11
164	Barbados	995	-4	-10
165	Indonesia	992	-1	0
166	Papua New Guinea	984	0	0
167	Cambodia	979	-1	-5
168	Malaysia	977	3	6
169	Grenada	976	-1	-4
170	Singapore	972	-1	-4
171	St. Lucia	967	-1	-5
172	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	962	1	2
173	Gambia	959	-1	-5
174	Chad	956	2	0
175	Bermuda	955	3	7
175	Puerto Rico	955	-2	-5
177	Moldova	951	-2	-6
178	Laos	948	0	0
179	Liechtenstein	947	1	3
180	Cuba	946	1	6
180	Dominica	946	-3	-6
182	Guyana	944	0	8
183	Mongolia	922	3	2
184	Malta	921	0	-7
185	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	920	1	0
186	Guam	917	4	5
186	Bhutan	917	-3	-15
188	Macau	915	-3	-9
189	Timor-Leste	914	1	2
190	Seychelles	913	-2	-3
191	Aruba	909	-3	-7
192	American Samoa	908	0	0
192	Cook Islands	908	0	0
194	Bangladesh	907	0	3
195	Brunei Darussalam	900	0	0
196	Samoa	896	1	0
196	Djibouti	896	1	0
198	Pakistan	892	3	8
199	Gibraltar	891	-4	-9
200	US Virgin Islands	889	-1	-3
201	Sri Lanka	885	-1	-3
202	Cayman Islands	878	0	-2
203	British Virgin Islands	872	1	0
204	San Marino	871	-1	-5
205	Montserrat	870	-1	-2
206	Tonga	868	0	0
206	Eritrea	868	0	0
206	Somalia	868	0	0
206	Anguilla	868	0	0
210	Bahamas	862	-4	-6
210	Turks and Caicos Islands	862	-4	-6

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.