Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.
The 6 teams that played the Hexagonal to qualify for the World Cup 2018 -Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago- are automatically placed in league A and are also qualified for the Gold Cup 2019.
The top 6 of the resulting qualifying ranking also qualify for league A. The next 16 teams (7-22) qualify for league B and the last 12 teams (23-34) qualify for league C. Guatemala does not play these qualifiers because they were suspended by FIFA at the time of the draw.
And last but not least: the top 10 of this ranking also qualifies for the Gold Cup 2019, which will be expanded to 16 teams.
The teams below are sorted by their average ranking position. Presented are the probabilities to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and also for the Gold Cup 2019.
| team | league A | league B | league C | Gold Cup |
| Haiti | 80,68% | 19,32% | 0,00% | 92,74% |
| Canada | 78,59% | 21,41% | 0,00% | 92,47% |
| Jamaica | 72,65% | 27,35% | 0,00% | 92,52% |
| Curacao | 64,61% | 35,39% | 0,00% | 84,91% |
| Martinique | 60,44% | 39,56% | 0,00% | 86,51% |
| Cuba | 48,88% | 51,12% | 0,00% | 74,42% |
| -------------------------------------- | ||||
| El Salvador | 45,57% | 54,43% | 0,00% | 74,45% |
| Dominican Republic | 41,04% | 58,96% | 0,00% | 74,19% |
| Nicaragua | 32,93% | 67,07% | 0,00% | 64,77% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 29,13% | 70,87% | 0,00% | 58,72% |
| ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ | ||||
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 2,52% | 89,70% | 7,78% | 34,51% |
| Guyana | 7,46% | 90,24% | 2,30% | 31,73% |
| St. Lucia | 4,09% | 87,60% | 8,31% | 28,15% |
| Aruba | 8,26% | 84,79% | 6,95% | 21,40% |
| Suriname | 3,50% | 91,95% | 4,55% | 14,31% |
| Guadeloupe | 8,12% | 84,82% | 7,06% | 19,80% |
| Belize | 2,36% | 86,09% | 11,55% | 18,51% |
| French Guyana | 3,55% | 85,78% | 10,67% | 14,60% |
| Bermuda | 4,20% | 65,12% | 30,68% | 12,30% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 1,37% | 70,24% | 28,39% | 6,69% |
| Barbados | 0,00% | 76,83% | 23,17% | 1,09% |
| Dominica | 0,00% | 50,77% | 49,23% | 0,03% |
| -------------------------------------- | ||||
| Montserrat | 0,05% | 35,31% | 64,64% | 1,18% |
| Cayman Islands | 0,00% | 34,65% | 65,35% | 0,00% |
| Bahamas | 0,00% | 27,28% | 72,72% | 0,00% |
| Grenada | 0,00% | 26,25% | 73,75% | 0,00% |
| Puerto Rico | 0,00% | 16,05% | 83,95% | 0,00% |
| Bonaire | 0,00% | 12,13% | 87,87% | 0,00% |
| St. Maarten | 0,00% | 13,27% | 86,73% | 0,00% |
| British Virgin Islands | 0,00% | 6,78% | 93,22% | 0,00% |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 0,00% | 9,14% | 90,86% | 0,00% |
| St. Martin | 0,00% | 4,41% | 95,59% | 0,00% |
| Anguilla | 0,00% | 2,76% | 97,24% | 0,00% |
| US Virgin Islands | 0,00% | 2,56% | 97,44% | 0,00% |
Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league A
|
Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league A
| Belize | -40% |
| French Guyana | -31% |
| St. Lucia | -18% |
| Guadeloupe | -14% |
| Dominican Republic | -2% |
Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league B
|
Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league B
| Bahamas | -26% |
| Grenada | -21% |
| Jamaica | -19% |
| Haiti | -19% |
| Cuba | -16% |
Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league C
| Bahamas | 27% |
| Grenada | 21% |
| Bonaire | 16% |
| St. Martin | 15% |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 12% |
Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league C
| Antigua and Barbuda | -36% |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | -36% |
| Montserrat | -27% |
| Bermuda | -22% |
| Guyana | -17% |
Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 31% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 26% |
| Cuba | 26% |
| Jamaica | 16% |
| Guyana | 15% |
Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
| Belize | -53% |
| French Guyana | -51% |
| Guadeloupe | -25% |
| St. Lucia | -19% |
| Barbados | -8% |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
thanks Ed
ReplyDeleteThe upcoming Match Day #3 will have a lot more even clashes on paper so the next week should see a much clearer picture.
Hey Ed,
ReplyDeleteWhen you do the team by team % probability update prior to March 19 MD4 would you be able to update the position and points charts provided prior to the competition starting
http://www.football-rankings.info/2018/07/concacaf-nations-league-2020-q.html
First the average points per qualification-position:
position - avg.pts
1 - 11,74
2 - 11,11
3 - 10,38
4 - 9,84
5 - 9,42
6 - 9,08
7 - 8,80
8 - 8,49
9 - 8,06
10 - 7,62
11 - 7,26
12 - 7,02
13 - 6,82
14 - 6,57
15 - 6,29
16 - 6,05
17 - 5,84
18 - 5,59
19 - 5,26
20 - 4,85
21 - 4,45
22 - 4,16
23 - 3,96
24 - 3,75
25 - 3,48
26 - 3,22
27 - 2,99
28 - 2,73
29 - 2,32
30 - 1,76
31 - 1,21
32 - 0,77
33 - 0,37
34 - 0,08
Then the probabilities for the resulting W/D/L-combinations to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and for the Gold Cup.
4 wins - 99,99% - 0,01% - 0,00% - 100,00%
3 wins, 1 draw - 98,12% - 1,88% - 0,00% - 100,00%
3 wins, 1 loss - 45,87% - 54,13% - 0,00% - 97,54%
2 wins, 1 draw - 0,13% - 99,87% - 0,00% - 22,42%
2 wins, 2 losses - 0,00% - 99,92% - 0,08% - 0,05%
1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss - 0,00% - 97,18% - 2,82% - 0,00%
1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses - 0,00% - 44,82% - 55,18% - 0,00%
1 win, 3 losses - 0,00% - 0,69% - 99,31% - 0,00%
2 draws, 2 losses - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
1 draw, 3 losses - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
4 losses - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%