Best movers:
8 - Gibraltar
7 - Zimbabwe, Namibia
Worst movers:
-9 - Mozambique
-6 - Northern Ireland, Libya, Hungary, Congo DR
Best movers in the top 50:
5 - Russia
4 - Norway, Nigeria, Japan
Worst movers in the top 50:
-6 - Northern Ireland, Congo DR
-3 - Republic of Ireland, Poland
Two teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Kosovo (137 - 138 in September 2018)
Gibraltar (190 - 195 in June 2018)
Four teams will drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (201 - 200 in November 2017)
British Virgin Islands (207 - 206 in April 2018)
San Marino (209 - 208 in July 2014)
Turks and Caicos Islands (211 - 210 in September 2018)
One team returns to their best ever ranking:
Venezuela (29 in August 2014)
October 2018 rank - Team - October 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Belgium | 1733 | 0 | 4,0 |
| 2 | France | 1732 | -1 | 3,0 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1669 | 0 | 6,0 |
| 4 | Croatia | 1635 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 5 | England | 1619 | 1 | 7,0 |
| 6 | Uruguay | 1617 | -1 | -15,0 |
| 7 | Portugal | 1616 | 0 | 10,0 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 1598 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 9 | Spain | 1594 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 10 | Denmark | 1584 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 11 | Colombia | 1575 | 3 | 8,0 |
| 12 | Argentina | 1573 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 13 | Chile | 1568 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 14 | Germany | 1555 | -2 | -13,0 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 1550 | 2 | 10,0 |
| 16 | Mexico | 1549 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 17 | Sweden | 1548 | -2 | -2,0 |
| 18 | Wales | 1538 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 19 | Italy | 1533 | 1 | 7,0 |
| 20 | Peru | 1530 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 21 | Poland | 1523 | -3 | -14,0 |
| 22 | Tunisia | 1515 | 1 | 12,0 |
| 23 | USA | 1506 | -1 | -4,0 |
| 24 | Austria | 1502 | 0 | 3,0 |
| 25 | Senegal | 1501 | 0 | 9,0 |
| 26 | Romania | 1491 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 27 | Ukraine | 1490 | 2 | 7,0 |
| 28 | Slovakia | 1483 | -2 | -8,0 |
| 29 | Venezuela | 1479 | 3 | 3,0 |
| 30 | Iran | 1478 | 3 | 4,0 |
| 31 | Paraguay | 1477 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 32 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1476 | 2 | 8,0 |
| 33 | Republic of Ireland | 1473 | -3 | -5,0 |
| 34 | Northern Ireland | 1472 | -6 | -15,0 |
| 35 | Serbia | 1471 | 0 | 8,0 |
| 36 | Iceland | 1458 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 37 | Costa Rica | 1452 | 0 | -8,0 |
| 38 | Turkey | 1449 | 0 | -7,0 |
| 39 | Montenegro | 1440 | 2 | -4,0 |
| 40 | Scotland | 1435 | -1 | -13,0 |
| 41 | Russia | 1433 | 5 | 10,0 |
| 42 | Australia | 1432 | 1 | 1,0 |
| 42 | Greece | 1432 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 44 | Nigeria | 1431 | 4 | 16,0 |
| 45 | Bulgaria | 1428 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 46 | Congo DR | 1423 | -6 | -24,0 |
| 47 | Morocco | 1422 | -2 | -3,0 |
| 48 | Czech Republic | 1420 | -1 | 2,0 |
| 48 | Norway | 1420 | 4 | 15,0 |
| 50 | Japan | 1409 | 4 | 11,0 |
| 51 | Cameroon | 1408 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 52 | Ghana | 1407 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 53 | Korea Republic | 1401 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 53 | Jamaica | 1401 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 55 | Hungary | 1400 | -6 | -9,0 |
| 56 | Finland | 1392 | 2 | 14,0 |
| 57 | Burkina Faso | 1390 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 58 | Egypt | 1378 | 6 | 14,0 |
| 59 | Bolivia | 1376 | -1 | -2,0 |
| 60 | Albania | 1372 | -3 | -11,0 |
| 61 | Ecuador | 1371 | -3 | -7,0 |
| 62 | Honduras | 1367 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 62 | Slovenia | 1367 | -1 | -9,0 |
| 64 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1356 | 2 | 5,0 |
| 65 | Guinea | 1354 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 66 | Mali | 1352 | -3 | -13,0 |
| 67 | Algeria | 1339 | 2 | -4,0 |
| 68 | Cape Verde Islands | 1338 | -1 | -12,0 |
| 68 | FYR Macedonia | 1338 | 0 | -6,0 |
| 70 | El Salvador | 1335 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 70 | Panama | 1335 | 0 | -4,0 |
| 72 | Saudi Arabia | 1334 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 73 | South Africa | 1321 | 0 | -4,0 |
| 74 | Syria | 1320 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 75 | China PR | 1317 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 76 | Canada | 1310 | 3 | 3,0 |
| 77 | Zambia | 1308 | -2 | -8,0 |
| 78 | Belarus | 1307 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 79 | Curacao | 1306 | 2 | 3,0 |
| 79 | Uganda | 1306 | 4 | 15,0 |
| 81 | United Arab Emirates | 1305 | -4 | -3,0 |
| 82 | Lebanon | 1300 | -5 | -8,0 |
| 83 | Gabon | 1288 | 4 | 14,0 |
| 84 | Luxembourg | 1287 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 84 | Oman | 1287 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 86 | Cyprus | 1279 | 0 | -4,0 |
| 87 | Congo | 1277 | -3 | -12,0 |
| 87 | Benin | 1277 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 89 | Iraq | 1270 | 0 | -2,0 |
| 90 | Kyrgyzstan | 1268 | 1 | 3,0 |
| 91 | Israel | 1267 | 3 | 20,0 |
| 92 | Georgia | 1265 | 1 | 11,0 |
| 93 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1263 | -3 | -6,0 |
| 94 | Uzbekistan | 1254 | 2 | 9,0 |
| 95 | Faroe Islands | 1251 | -3 | -10,0 |
| 96 | Qatar | 1248 | -2 | 1,0 |
| 97 | India | 1245 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 98 | Estonia | 1237 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 99 | Palestine | 1233 | 1 | 8,0 |
| 100 | Madagascar | 1224 | 6 | 19,0 |
| 101 | Armenia | 1222 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 102 | Vietnam | 1220 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 103 | Haiti | 1216 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 104 | Mauritania | 1213 | -1 | -4,0 |
| 105 | Libya | 1210 | -6 | -16,0 |
| 105 | Kenya | 1210 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 107 | Azerbaijan | 1207 | 1 | 5,0 |
| 108 | Niger | 1195 | -3 | -12,0 |
| 109 | Namibia | 1192 | 7 | 22,0 |
| 110 | Korea DPR | 1191 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 110 | Zimbabwe | 1191 | 7 | 24,0 |
| 112 | Jordan | 1189 | -2 | 0,0 |
| 113 | Central African Republic | 1182 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 113 | Bahrain | 1182 | -1 | 1,0 |
| 115 | Sierra Leone | 1172 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 116 | Philippines | 1171 | -2 | -1,0 |
| 117 | Kazakhstan | 1166 | 1 | 6,0 |
| 118 | Tajikistan | 1161 | 2 | 5,0 |
| 119 | New Zealand | 1157 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 119 | Guinea-Bissau | 1157 | 2 | 8,0 |
| 121 | Thailand | 1154 | 1 | 10,0 |
| 122 | Mozambique | 1151 | -9 | -24,0 |
| 123 | Togo | 1144 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 124 | Chinese Taipei | 1139 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 125 | Malawi | 1129 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 126 | Antigua and Barbuda | 1126 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 127 | Nicaragua | 1125 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 128 | Turkmenistan | 1120 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 129 | Lithuania | 1117 | -3 | -6,0 |
| 130 | Angola | 1113 | 5 | 5,0 |
| 131 | Yemen | 1112 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 132 | Latvia | 1111 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 133 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 1109 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 133 | Andorra | 1109 | -5 | -12,0 |
| 135 | Sudan | 1105 | -3 | -9,0 |
| 136 | Tanzania | 1101 | 4 | 12,0 |
| 137 | Kosovo | 1099 | 1 | 7,0 |
| 138 | Rwanda | 1092 | -1 | -1,0 |
| 139 | Swaziland | 1088 | -3 | -13,0 |
| 140 | Botswana | 1081 | 2 | 4,0 |
| 141 | Myanmar | 1080 | -3 | -12,0 |
| 142 | Burundi | 1074 | 6 | 13,0 |
| 143 | Solomon Islands | 1073 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 144 | Hong Kong | 1071 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 145 | Afghanistan | 1068 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 146 | Equatorial Guinea | 1067 | -5 | -19,0 |
| 147 | Guatemala | 1064 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 148 | Comoros | 1062 | 1 | 2,0 |
| 149 | Lesotho | 1055 | -4 | -15,0 |
| 150 | Ethiopia | 1054 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 151 | Maldives | 1049 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 152 | Dominican Republic | 1045 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 153 | Suriname | 1040 | 0 | 5,0 |
| 154 | Liberia | 1035 | 1 | 12,0 |
| 155 | New Caledonia | 1032 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 156 | Mauritius | 1022 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 157 | Kuwait | 1020 | 2 | 6,0 |
| 157 | Tahiti | 1020 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 159 | South Sudan | 1005 | -1 | -14,0 |
| 160 | Indonesia | 1004 | 4 | 7,0 |
| 161 | Nepal | 1001 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 162 | Vanuatu | 1000 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 162 | Barbados | 1000 | 0 | -3,0 |
| 164 | Belize | 995 | -4 | -9,0 |
| 165 | Singapore | 991 | 1 | 9,0 |
| 166 | Papua New Guinea | 984 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 167 | Fiji | 981 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 168 | St. Lucia | 977 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 169 | Malaysia | 974 | 2 | 2,0 |
| 170 | Cambodia | 973 | -1 | -6,0 |
| 171 | Moldova | 969 | 2 | 11,0 |
| 172 | Grenada | 968 | -2 | -8,0 |
| 173 | Gambia | 967 | -2 | -5,0 |
| 174 | Chad | 956 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 175 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 955 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 175 | Puerto Rico | 955 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 177 | Cuba | 954 | 2 | 8,0 |
| 178 | Dominica | 950 | -1 | -3,0 |
| 179 | Guyana | 943 | 3 | 6,0 |
| 180 | Bermuda | 940 | 1 | 0,0 |
| 181 | Laos | 937 | -2 | -9,0 |
| 182 | Liechtenstein | 936 | -4 | -11,0 |
| 183 | Malta | 927 | 0 | -1,0 |
| 184 | Macau | 925 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 185 | Aruba | 924 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 186 | Mongolia | 923 | 0 | 1,0 |
| 187 | Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe | 920 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 188 | Bhutan | 917 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 188 | Seychelles | 917 | 1 | 4,0 |
| 190 | Gibraltar | 911 | 8 | 20,0 |
| 191 | Timor-Leste | 910 | -1 | 1,0 |
| 192 | American Samoa | 908 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 192 | Cook Islands | 908 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 194 | Guam | 907 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 194 | Bangladesh | 907 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 196 | Brunei Darussalam | 903 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 197 | Samoa | 896 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 197 | Djibouti | 896 | -1 | 0,0 |
| 199 | Pakistan | 890 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 200 | US Virgin Islands | 887 | 1 | -2,0 |
| 201 | Sri Lanka | 886 | -2 | -4,0 |
| 202 | Montserrat | 879 | 3 | 9,0 |
| 203 | Cayman Islands | 873 | -1 | -5,0 |
| 204 | Tonga | 868 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 204 | Eritrea | 868 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 204 | Somalia | 868 | 2 | 0,0 |
| 207 | British Virgin Islands | 867 | -4 | -5,0 |
| 208 | Anguilla | 864 | -2 | -4,0 |
| 209 | San Marino | 862 | -5 | -9,0 |
| 210 | Bahamas | 858 | 0 | -4,0 |
| 211 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 855 | -1 | -7,0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
I don't understand the criticism of the new system with respect of it being too slow to react. That's a decent amount of movement for low-weighted games like the Nations League and friendlies. It wouldn't make much sense that a team that did well at the World Cup loses their ground quickly because of a couple of bad results in relatively unimportant games. We'll see much more volatilities when the qualifiers start. So far, so good.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is not the present, now the intervals between teams were artificially reduced so it seems the system moves decently. But in the future, with this formula, a balance will be reached so the first team in the ranking should have about 2100-2200 points while the last teams will have about 600-550 (in about 12-14 years I think). In a system that reached the expected balance, the ipotetical We of the last team in a match againts the first ranked team should be near to 0 (i.e. 0,0001..), now it is about 0,03. When the balance will be reached actual constants will be too small.
DeleteHowever we do not know what Fifa will do, it is still possible they consider to examine the constants after every World Cup for a possible review, like they did under the old system for the continental match factor.
I partially disagree with Jos. I find the ranking too slow-moving as it is right now. It will get worse over time, true, but it's already bad.
ReplyDeleteAs for nogomet's points, Nations League might be little more than glorified friendlies for League A nations but it's the real thing lower down the ladder. It's arguably more important than the regular qualifiers for League D nations.
I care very little about what happens at the top of the table. The perennial powerhouses are always up there somewhere as they deserve to be. Whether a particular powerhouse is 3rd or 7th in a particular month is inconsequential because they are pot 1 in every possible seeding anyway. If the top of the crop wanted the League A to have a friendly status or not count at all towards the ranking, guess what, I'd be fine with that. Just please give the rest of us a chance to climb among our peers when we deserve it.
Someone climbing eight places in a month may look impressive until you remember that: a) there are only five international match windows per year where that sort of a gain is remotely possible, b) there are 211 teams on the table so making any noticeable climb in 8-place steps takes literally years of overperforming, c) the biggest climber Gibraltar didn't actually gain a single placing within its own confederation.
Gibraltar needs a win and a draw in November at least just to have a chance to pass Malta who haven't won a competitive match since 2013. The 50th place of UEFA is 188 points away which translates into 10 or 11 competitive wins. Gibraltar might just about reach the likes of Latvia and Andorra and breach the top 50 in UEFA if they win their EURO qualifying group.
I'll go on a bit. In this match window, 123 teams played at least one competitive match. Of them...
Delete* 1 (Mozambique) lost four places in their respective confederation ranking,
* 5 (Northern Ireland, Mali, Madagascar, Namibia and Zimbabwe) lost or gained three places in their respective confederation ranking,
* 117 (95 %) stayed within two places of where they were.
There's also a funny article on the FIFA site on Kosovo targeting top 100 in "a few months".
https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/y=2018/m=10/news=kosovo-planning-for-bright-future.html
It's not possible for them to get there before next autumn, and even then it's unlikely. Imagine if the head coach's performance is evaluated based on a target that's mathematically unachievable.
Nations League games have a lower weighting than qualifiers. They may subjectively mean more for European minnows, but that doesn't change the fact that this competition is valued as less important by FIFA. If Gibraltar continue beating other minnows in the qualifiers, they'll get more points. But I don't see why they should suddenly climb 50 or more places just because they beat the likes of Liechtenstein and Armenia.
DeleteBTW, I checked how Gibraltar's October results were reflected in eloratings.net's rankings, arguably the best ranking system there is, and guess what? Gibraltar moved only 6 positions after the two wins, less than in FIFA rankings!
DeleteIn my criticism of the FIFA ranking, I didn't advocate any particular alternative to it. Eloratings.net is better than the FIFA version but is has its own set of issues. Case Gibraltar exemplifies one.
DeleteAny Elo model will have troubles accurately assessing a team that loses 90+ % of their competitive games. An occasional success is just enough to offset the 20+ defeats before it which is what happened to Gibraltar now. But if they continue their hot streak (very unlikely, I know), they will have an easier time gaining ground on eloratings.net than in FIFA's version.
FIFA doesn't have the same excuse for Gibraltar gaining nothing for their two wins, however, because the FIFA ranking has only used an Elo model for a very short while. The gaps are far closer to the artificially low values FIFA chose at the start than the kind of gaps the model will produce over time.
One more thing, Gibraltar won both their October games by the smallest possible margin. They would have gained more points on eloratings.net with larger wins. FIFA lacks this possibility.
This is the list of teams that gained or lost more than two places within their confederation at eloratings.net in the October match window.
Delete+6 places: Madagascar
+5 places: Guinea-Bissau, Angola
+4 places: Finland, Israel, Uganda, Malawi
+3 places: Serbia, Czech Rep, Georgia, Namibia
-3 places: Germany, N Ireland, Macedonia, Congo
-4 places: Lesotho, Belize, Mozambique
-5 places: Poland, Mauritania
-6 places: Equatorial Guinea
That's 21 of the 123 teams that played a competitive match, as compared to 6/123 at FIFA.
Most importantly ...
ReplyDeletePots for 2022 World Cup European qualifiers:
1 - Belgium, France, Croatia, England, Portugal, Switzerland, Spain, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands
2 - Sweden, Wales, Italy, Poland, Austria, Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia, Bosnia, Ireland
3 - Northern Ireland, Serbia, Iceland, Turkey, Montenegro, Scotland, Russia, Greece, Bulgaria, Czech Republic
4 - Norway, Hungary, Finland, Albania, Slovenia, Macedonia, Belarus, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Israel
5 - Georgia, Faroe Islands, Estonia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Andorra, Kosovo
6 - Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Gibraltar, San Marino
One to two Nations League games left for each team (plus two more for the finalists) and two to four Euro qualifiers per team before the draw.
Wait - what? If Gibraltar WINS its Euro 2020 qualifying group, it will only climb from 54th to 50th out of 55 European nations?
ReplyDeleteThereabouts. Gibraltar could gain 24 points for winning their last two Nations League games and 220 for winning every game in the regular qualifiers if they draw the toughest possible group (as per the FIFA ranking): Belgium, Croatia, Austria, Romania and Latvia. I've calculated points transfers as if the gap between Gibraltar and each of their opponents was what it is now. This slightly overestimates Gibraltar's potential gains; in reality, they'd see diminishing returns, but that's not important in a ballpark estimate.
Delete911 + 24 + 220 = 1155. Right now, Kazakhstan (46th in UEFA) is at 1166 points, Lithuania (47th) at 1117, Latvia (48th) at 1111, Andorra (49th) at 1109 and Kosovo (50th) at 1099.
Of course, it's possible to win a group without winning every game in it. If Gibraltar's record in the next 12 matches were something like 8-2-2 rather than 12-0-0, they would be below 1100 points in November 2019.
Of course, no one really expects from Gibraltar to win its group. But Kosovo has much more potential. Probably it won't win its group either, but it's capable of playing an important role in it. And it's currently ranked 50th in Europe, just behind Andorra. Imagine how long it will take the team to climb to a position correspending to its actual strength.
DeleteAnd what if a really strong new team joined UEFA, say Catalonia or something? It would have to start gaining points from scratch, and would spend years and years performing in pace with the powerhouses while being ranked alongside the minnows, slowly climbing towards the middle-class teams.