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Saturday, October 6, 2018

FIFA ranking: October 2018 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2018 ranking, to be published on October 25th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 136 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list. A total of 167 matches is scheduled to be played until October 16th.


 Probable October 2018 rank - Team - Probable October 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 Belgium 1735 0 6,0
2 France 1734 -1 5,0
3 Brazil 1669 0 6,0
4 Croatia 1643 0 9,0
5 Uruguay 1629 0 -3,0
6 Spain 1609 3 12,0
7 Portugal 1605 0 -1,0
8 Switzerland 1598 0 0,0
9 England 1597 -3 -15,0
10 Denmark 1591 0 10,0
11 Argentina 1573 0 -2,0
12 Chile 1568 0 0,0
13 Colombia 1567 1 0,0
14 Germany 1562 -2 -6,0
15 Mexico 1550 0 0,0
16 Sweden 1549 -1 -1,0
17 Netherlands 1540 0 0,0
18 Poland 1538 0 1,0
19 Wales 1530 0 -6,0
20 Italy 1526 0 0,0
21 Peru 1525 0 0,0
22 Tunisia 1515 1 12,0
23 USA 1510 -1 0,0
24 Austria 1502 0 3,0
25 Senegal 1501 0 9,0
26 Slovakia 1498 0 7,0
27 Romania 1491 0 2,0
28 Ukraine 1489 1 6,0
29 Venezuela 1479 3 3,0
30 Paraguay 1477 1 0,0
31 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1476 3 8,0
32 Iran 1474 1 0,0
33 Republic of Ireland 1473 -3 -5,0
34 Northern Ireland 1472 -6 -15,0
35 Serbia 1463 0 0,0
36 Costa Rica 1460 1 0,0
37 Iceland 1455 -1 -6,0
38 Scotland 1453 1 5,0
39 Turkey 1449 -1 -7,0
40 Montenegro 1448 1 4,0
41 Congo DR 1447 -1 0,0
42 Greece 1439 0 6,0
43 Morocco 1435 2 10,0
44 Russia 1433 2 10,0
45 Australia 1432 -2 1,0
46 Nigeria 1431 2 16,0
47 Bulgaria 1428 -3 -2,0
48 Cameroon 1421 2 13,0
48 Ghana 1421 3 14,0
50 Norway 1420 2 15,0
51 Czech Republic 1406 -4 -12,0
52 Burkina Faso 1402 4 11,0
53 Korea Republic 1401 2 6,0
53 Jamaica 1401 0 0,0
55 Hungary 1400 -6 -9,0
56 Japan 1398 -2 0,0
57 Albania 1384 0 1,0
58 Ecuador 1378 0 0,0
58 Bolivia 1378 0 0,0
58 Egypt 1378 6 14,0
61 Finland 1377 -3 -1,0
61 Mali 1377 2 12,0
63 Slovenia 1375 -2 -1,0
64 Cote d'Ivoire 1368 2 17,0
65 Honduras 1367 -3 -1,0
66 Guinea 1366 -1 13,0
67 Algeria 1351 2 8,0
68 Cape Verde Islands 1350 -1 0,0
69 FYR Macedonia 1345 -1 1,0
70 Saudi Arabia 1339 1 2,0
71 El Salvador 1335 1 3,0
72 Panama 1334 -2 -5,0
73 South Africa 1333 0 8,0
73 Zambia 1333 2 17,0
75 Syria 1320 -1 -2,0
76 China PR 1317 0 4,0
77 Belarus 1315 3 11,0
78 Canada 1310 1 3,0
79 Curacao 1306 2 3,0
80 Lebanon 1305 -3 -3,0
80 United Arab Emirates 1305 -3 -3,0
82 Uganda 1293 1 2,0
83 Oman 1291 2 4,0
84 Congo 1289 0 0,0
85 Gabon 1288 2 14,0
86 Luxembourg 1287 -4 -5,0
87 Cyprus 1272 -1 -11,0
88 Trinidad and Tobago 1269 2 0,0
89 Iraq 1265 0 -7,0
89 Georgia 1265 4 11,0
91 Benin 1264 -3 -9,0
92 Kyrgyzstan 1263 -1 -2,0
93 Faroe Islands 1258 -1 -3,0
94 Qatar 1247 0 0,0
95 Israel 1245 -1 -2,0
95 Uzbekistan 1245 1 0,0
97 Estonia 1244 1 4,0
98 India 1240 -1 -4,0
99 Palestine 1230 1 5,0
99 Armenia 1230 1 5,0
101 Mauritania 1225 2 8,0
102 Vietnam 1220 0 0,0
103 Haiti 1216 1 4,0
104 Libya 1210 -5 -16,0
104 Kenya 1210 3 6,0
106 Azerbaijan 1207 2 5,0
107 Madagascar 1200 -1 -5,0
108 Korea DPR 1196 1 0,0
109 Niger 1195 -4 -12,0
110 Bahrain 1188 2 7,0
111 Jordan 1184 -1 -5,0
112 Namibia 1180 4 10,0
113 Central African Republic 1170 -2 -17,0
114 Philippines 1169 0 -3,0
115 Zimbabwe 1167 2 0,0
116 Mozambique 1162 -3 -13,0
117 Kazakhstan 1159 1 -1,0
118 Sierra Leone 1158 -4 -14,0
119 New Zealand 1157 0 0,0
120 Tajikistan 1156 0 0,0
121 Thailand 1148 1 4,0
122 Togo 1144 1 5,0
123 Chinese Taipei 1139 0 0,0
124 Guinea-Bissau 1132 -3 -17,0
125 Antigua and Barbuda 1126 2 4,0
126 Nicaragua 1125 2 4,0
127 Turkmenistan 1120 3 0,0
128 Latvia 1119 3 3,0
129 Lithuania 1117 -3 -6,0
129 Malawi 1117 -4 -12,0
131 Yemen 1112 2 0,0
132 St. Kitts and Nevis 1109 2 0,0
132 Andorra 1109 -4 -12,0
134 Sudan 1105 -2 -9,0
135 Angola 1101 0 -7,0
136 Kosovo 1099 2 7,0
137 Equatorial Guinea 1091 4 5,0
138 Tanzania 1088 2 -1,0
138 Swaziland 1088 -2 -13,0
140 Myanmar 1086 -2 -6,0
141 Rwanda 1080 -4 -13,0
142 Solomon Islands 1073 2 0,0
143 Botswana 1068 -1 -9,0
143 Afghanistan 1068 3 0,0
143 Lesotho 1068 2 -2,0
146 Hong Kong 1066 -3 -10,0
147 Guatemala 1064 0 0,0
148 Ethiopia 1054 1 -6,0
149 Comoros 1050 0 -10,0
150 Burundi 1049 -2 -12,0
150 Maldives 1049 1 0,0
152 Dominican Republic 1045 0 5,0
153 Suriname 1040 0 5,0
154 New Caledonia 1032 0 0,0
155 Liberia 1022 0 -1,0
155 Mauritius 1022 1 0,0
157 Tahiti 1020 0 0,0
158 Kuwait 1015 1 1,0
159 Belize 1010 1 6,0
160 Indonesia 1009 4 12,0
161 South Sudan 1005 -3 -14,0
162 Nepal 1001 -2 -3,0
163 Vanuatu 1000 0 0,0
163 Barbados 1000 -1 -3,0
165 Singapore 991 1 9,0
166 Papua New Guinea 984 -1 0,0
167 Fiji 981 1 0,0
168 Cambodia 978 1 -1,0
169 St. Lucia 977 -3 -5,0
170 Malaysia 975 1 3,0
171 Grenada 968 -1 -8,0
171 Gambia 968 0 -4,0
173 Moldova 961 0 3,0
174 Chad 956 0 0,0
175 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 955 0 0,0
175 Puerto Rico 955 0 0,0
177 Cuba 954 2 8,0
178 Dominica 950 -1 -3,0
179 Liechtenstein 944 -1 -3,0
180 Guyana 943 2 6,0
181 Laos 942 -2 -4,0
182 Bermuda 940 -1 0,0
183 Macau 925 1 0,0
184 Aruba 924 1 0,0
185 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 920 2 0,0
186 Malta 919 -3 -9,0
187 Mongolia 918 -1 -4,0
188 Bhutan 917 0 0,0
189 American Samoa 908 2 0,0
189 Cook Islands 908 2 0,0
191 Guam 907 2 0,0
191 Bangladesh 907 2 0,0
193 Timor-Leste 905 -3 -4,0
194 Seychelles 904 -5 -9,0
195 Brunei Darussalam 903 0 0,0
196 Samoa 896 0 0,0
196 Djibouti 896 0 0,0
198 Sri Lanka 890 1 0,0
198 Pakistan 890 1 0,0
200 Gibraltar 888 -2 -3,0
201 US Virgin Islands 887 0 -2,0
202 Cayman Islands 873 0 -5,0
203 Tonga 868 3 0,0
203 Eritrea 868 3 0,0
203 Somalia 868 3 0,0
206 British Virgin Islands 867 -3 -5,0
207 Montserrat 864 -2 -6,0
207 Anguilla 864 -1 -4,0
209 San Marino 862 -5 -9,0
210 Bahamas 858 0 -4,0
211 Turks and Caicos Islands 855 -1 -7,0

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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18 comments:

  1. Forza azzurriOctober 7, 2018 at 10:36 PM

    I could be wrong, but it seems to me moving up (or down) with this new system is going to be extremely hard.

    How about these European qualifying groups for the 2022 World Cup?

    A - Belgium, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Georgia, Faeroe Islands
    B - France, Bosnia, Serbia, Cyprus, Israel, San Marino
    C - Croatia, Ukraine, Iceland, Luxembourg, Estonia
    D - Spain, Romania, Scotland, Belarus, Armenia, Gibraltar
    E - Portugal, Slovakia, Turkey, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Malta
    F - England, Italy, Greece, Finland, Latvia, Liechtenstein
    G - Denmark, Wales, Russia, Albania, Lithuania
    H - Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Andorra, Moldova
    I - Sweden, Netherlands, Norway, Czech Republic, Kosovo

    Ouch! Only eight games left to improve your destiny.

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownOctober 8, 2018 at 6:08 PM

    Afghanistan-Myanmar match is cancelled
    So what ranking would Afghanistan be now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 9, 2018 at 10:49 AM

      The match Myanmar - Afghanistan was already NOT included in the above probable ranking. See the match-list in probable results, the zero as first digit indicates that the match is not included in the calculation.

      Delete
  3. UnknownOctober 11, 2018 at 1:49 AM

    Hi Ed,

    You know how the ELO site has a fixture list with a points transfer per game.

    Do you think this is possible with the Fifa mechanism?

    Not asking if you can do it (although that would be great). Asking with your understanding of the fifa model if its possible to get that level of detail around the points transfer per game.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 11, 2018 at 8:39 AM

      Hey Unknown, you mean something like this ? :)

      Delete
    2. talliholicOctober 18, 2018 at 6:15 PM

      Hey unknown, check out the points transfer per game at https://elofifa.blogspot.com/

      Delete
  4. MichaelOctober 17, 2018 at 11:15 AM

    Hi Ed,
    I was wondering what would be the current ranking if the new FIFA ranking system had been applied before World Cup 2014 when France was 18th, Croatia 19th and Belgium 11th. Which place would they have reached today after World Cup 2018 ?
    And what if we go back to 2009 when Belgium was 70th in the ranking ? Would they have reached the top of the ranking ?
    I'm wondering if the new system will evolve as slow as it seems it will be the case due to low K (I) factors.

    ReplyDelete
  5. MichaelOctober 17, 2018 at 11:46 AM

    October 2018 ranking is here : https://textuploader.com/dnx3h

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdOctober 17, 2018 at 12:51 PM

      Looking good, Michael.

      I have a few differences:
      Bulgaria was in September 44th with 1430 points, so diffs should be -1 positions and -2 pts.

      Barbados has 999,59 points
      Cuba has 953,77 points
      St. Vincent has 954,68 points
      Cayman Islands has 872,96 points

      Delete
    2. MichaelOctober 17, 2018 at 5:46 PM

      Bulgaria was at 1430.50 pts actually. My excel file rounded it up to 1431 ;)

      I included 2 matches played end September appearing in Eloratings.net : Cuba-Cayman 5-0 and St Vincent-Barbados 1-1. Maybe they will not be included by FIFA though.

      Delete
    3. EdOctober 18, 2018 at 8:47 AM

      Indeed, Bulgaria's September ranking is a 'fine' example of FIFA's rounding method. To be even more precise Bulgaria had 1430,4969 in September, so rounded on two decimals 1430,50 and in their world that's 1430 :)

      Those two matches are not included in FIFA's fixture list and that list is still leading, not the list on elo ratings.

      Delete
    4. talliholicOctober 18, 2018 at 6:27 PM

      Hello Ed and Michael, I also have a ranking here: http://elofifa.blogspot.com/ I´ve included points exchange of every game since June 4th. Michael, I also have Palestine with 1233 pts, unlike the website FCTables. They have Palestine with 1237 pts. I guess they did not calculate Palestine´s win after penalties (0.75 pts). What do you think?

      Delete
  6. talliholicOctober 18, 2018 at 7:16 PM

    If you use excel, here´s a file I created where you just have to copy paste from the fifa fixtures results web site, and the formulas will do all the math, exchange points and rank teams. I´ll be happy to explain how it works. Take a look: https://1drv.ms/x/s!Anvei7RxJKLQkI5f0uF9TsgInaE7Vw

    ReplyDelete
  7. Michael Agala, kenyaOctober 24, 2018 at 7:03 PM

    Why is serraleon on positive move yet are banned and were dormant during the international week.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Peter FloydDecember 11, 2018 at 1:31 PM

    Great post

    ReplyDelete
  9. BBQ cleaners of GilbertDecember 11, 2018 at 2:22 PM

    The author portrays distinctive football rankings, examinations the points and upsides and downsides of each positioning framework. One of the principle subjects of the article is to uncover the contrast between authority football appraisals and informal open positioning.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Clipping Path ServiceFebruary 5, 2019 at 12:07 PM

    I think it is not after the FIFA world cup 2018. I Think this ranking is before world cup 2018. Am i right?

    ReplyDelete