Starting values for all matches from May 24th 2010 were determined, based on the May 2010 FIFA ranking positions, in the same way as was done by FIFA last Summer: the first team gets 1600 points (number one Brazil's actual FIFA rating at the time was 1611), the next team gets 4 points less. Teams on the same position get the same starting value.
All International Match Calendar windows from 2010 onwards were determined to correctly apply the I-factor of 10 for friendlies falling inside such a window.
Each resulting monthly ranking from July 2010 to October 2018 was determined. So f.i. the June 2018 ranking included two complete World Cup cycles (2010-2014 and 2014-2018, WC finals at the start of each cycle) calculated with the new method.
First the complete table with differences in ranking positions for each years June ranking computed as FIFA-ranking position minus ranking position according to the new method (teams are ordered by June 2018 FIFA-ranking):
| FIFA - new | jul-10 | jun-11 | jun-12 | jun-13 | jun-14 | jun-15 | jun-16 | jun-17 | jun-18 | FIFA 6/18 | new 6/18 |
| Germany | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brazil | -2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Belgium | -10 | -19 | 0 | -22 | -15 | -13 | -12 | -6 | -9 | 3 | 12 |
| Portugal | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 4 | 5 |
| Argentina | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Switzerland | -6 | -1 | -7 | -7 | -13 | -7 | -4 | -8 | -10 | 6 | 16 |
| France | -4 | -4 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Poland | -1 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 13 | -19 | -15 | -11 | -12 | 8 | 20 |
| Chile | -2 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| Spain | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| Peru | -15 | 2 | -4 | -7 | -2 | 15 | 13 | -4 | -7 | 11 | 18 |
| England | -1 | -3 | -1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Denmark | -12 | -17 | -18 | -9 | -8 | -3 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 12 | 27 |
| Uruguay | 0 | 10 | -3 | 8 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| Mexico | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 8 |
| Colombia | 6 | 20 | -3 | -13 | -7 | -2 | -4 | -2 | 6 | 16 | 10 |
| Netherlands | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 10 |
| Wales | 6 | 28 | -37 | -29 | -32 | -41 | -34 | -34 | -30 | 18 | 48 |
| Italy | -3 | -8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 13 |
| Croatia | 5 | -2 | -3 | -6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 17 |
| Tunisia | 7 | -2 | -10 | -15 | -6 | -20 | -2 | -8 | -17 | 21 | 38 |
| Iceland | -10 | 22 | 30 | -29 | -35 | -35 | -34 | -28 | -29 | 22 | 51 |
| Costa Rica | 10 | 11 | 14 | -2 | -11 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 19 |
| Sweden | 1 | -7 | -5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 23 |
| USA | 4 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 15 |
| Austria | -8 | -7 | -9 | 11 | -19 | -32 | -31 | -19 | -26 | 26 | 52 |
| Senegal | 14 | -20 | -12 | 15 | 3 | -20 | -14 | -21 | -16 | 27 | 43 |
| Slovakia | -5 | -9 | -4 | 13 | -1 | -14 | -8 | -13 | -3 | 28 | 31 |
| Northern Ireland | 4 | 4 | 32 | 37 | 5 | -30 | -38 | -33 | -29 | 29 | 58 |
| Romania | 14 | 19 | 16 | 1 | -4 | -14 | -8 | 4 | -11 | 30 | 41 |
| Republic of Ireland | -2 | -2 | -13 | 1 | 21 | 17 | -3 | -7 | -5 | 31 | 36 |
| Paraguay | -6 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 46 | 15 | 1 | -1 | 32 | 33 |
| Venezuela | -2 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 22 | 6 | -17 | 33 | 50 |
| Serbia | -7 | -3 | 1 | -3 | -2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -9 | 34 | 43 |
| Ukraine | 8 | 21 | 28 | 13 | -5 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 25 |
| Australia | 5 | 10 | 12 | 28 | 41 | 40 | 35 | 25 | 14 | 36 | 22 |
| IR Iran | 2 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 21 |
| Turkey | -1 | -8 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 21 | -9 | -4 | 6 | 38 | 32 |
| Congo DR | 3 | 7 | 10 | -29 | -23 | -38 | -33 | -27 | -26 | 38 | 64 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 6 | -11 | -17 | -16 | -8 | -7 | -19 | -10 | -1 | 40 | 41 |
| Morocco | 12 | -5 | -3 | -6 | 8 | 24 | 3 | -1 | -5 | 41 | 46 |
| Scotland | -2 | 15 | -2 | 16 | -19 | -13 | -5 | 10 | -7 | 42 | 49 |
| Montenegro | 7 | -32 | -8 | -29 | -8 | 9 | 16 | -17 | -26 | 43 | 69 |
| Greece | -5 | -4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 39 |
| Egypt | -4 | 11 | 22 | 36 | 11 | 18 | 5 | -4 | 17 | 45 | 28 |
| Czech Republic | 1 | 4 | -2 | -1 | 8 | -9 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 36 |
| Ghana | 4 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 23 | 23 | 47 | 24 |
| Nigeria | -1 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 21 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 13 | 48 | 35 |
| Cameroon | 4 | 9 | 25 | 19 | 11 | -3 | 7 | -8 | 4 | 49 | 45 |
| Bulgaria | 7 | 7 | 34 | -1 | 22 | 7 | 12 | -3 | -16 | 49 | 65 |
| Hungary | 6 | -8 | -18 | -11 | -4 | -8 | -23 | -11 | -4 | 51 | 55 |
| Burkina Faso | -3 | -4 | 21 | -8 | 5 | -1 | 1 | -15 | -5 | 52 | 57 |
| Norway | 1 | -6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 5 | 27 | -1 | 53 | 54 |
| Jamaica | 1 | -28 | -6 | -18 | 3 | -11 | -15 | 2 | -8 | 54 | 62 |
| Panama | 18 | -4 | -6 | -6 | -17 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 55 | 47 |
| Slovenia | -4 | -6 | -4 | 7 | -17 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 56 | 56 |
| Korea Republic | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 29 | 28 | 21 | 28 | 57 | 29 |
| Albania | -9 | -20 | -8 | -44 | -20 | -18 | -34 | -9 | -16 | 58 | 74 |
| Bolivia | -11 | 25 | 27 | -11 | 2 | 20 | 10 | -1 | -13 | 59 | 72 |
| Ecuador | 13 | 26 | -6 | -18 | -4 | 1 | -12 | -4 | 26 | 60 | 34 |
| Japan | -3 | -5 | -1 | 11 | 18 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 36 | 61 | 25 |
| Honduras | -1 | -8 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 62 | 60 |
| Finland | 0 | 16 | 15 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 29 | -10 | 63 | 73 |
| Mali | 1 | 17 | -10 | -18 | 5 | -2 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 64 | 59 |
| Cape Verde Islands | -7 | -29 | -32 | -29 | -57 | -51 | -43 | -11 | -28 | 65 | 93 |
| Algeria | -6 | 0 | -14 | -16 | -22 | -12 | -2 | 7 | 13 | 66 | 53 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 25 | 21 | -2 | -8 | 6 | 67 | 61 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 0 | -5 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 19 | 22 | 28 | 68 | 40 |
| Guinea | 14 | -18 | -7 | 1 | -18 | -20 | -10 | 1 | -11 | 68 | 79 |
| Russia | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 70 | 30 |
| FYR Macedonia | 6 | 23 | 20 | -1 | -3 | 10 | 43 | 36 | -17 | 71 | 88 |
| El Salvador | 17 | -2 | -6 | 14 | -5 | 8 | 11 | 18 | -13 | 72 | 85 |
| Syria | -6 | 6 | 18 | 23 | 21 | 6 | -5 | -20 | -16 | 73 | 89 |
| South Africa | -8 | -17 | -4 | -3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 74 | 68 |
| China PR | -6 | -5 | -4 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 75 | 69 |
| Zambia | 1 | 2 | -5 | -4 | 23 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 9 | 76 | 67 |
| United Arab Emirates | -13 | 4 | 5 | -15 | -18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 74 |
| Belarus | -6 | -37 | -13 | -12 | -1 | -6 | -3 | 0 | -6 | 78 | 84 |
| Canada | 37 | 19 | 16 | 21 | 38 | 35 | 14 | 33 | 8 | 79 | 71 |
| Lebanon | -9 | 17 | -5 | -8 | -4 | 5 | 23 | 11 | -32 | 79 | 111 |
| Curaçao | -4 | -3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -19 | -8 | -86 | -73 | 81 | 154 |
| Uganda | -5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 6 | -8 | -5 | -7 | 5 | 82 | 77 |
| Congo | 4 | 21 | -20 | -23 | -19 | -41 | -24 | -4 | -8 | 83 | 91 |
| Oman | -10 | 15 | 8 | 28 | 11 | 21 | 14 | 37 | 4 | 84 | 80 |
| Gabon | -8 | 15 | 4 | 26 | 31 | 0 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 85 | 78 |
| Luxembourg | -11 | -5 | -7 | 13 | -7 | -1 | 17 | 10 | -39 | 85 | 124 |
| Cyprus | -4 | 7 | 41 | 35 | 43 | -14 | -16 | -8 | -15 | 87 | 102 |
| Benin | 0 | 20 | 4 | 38 | 12 | 26 | -7 | -1 | 7 | 88 | 81 |
| Iraq | 23 | 17 | 10 | 28 | 23 | 13 | 25 | 36 | 13 | 89 | 76 |
| Faroe Islands | -8 | -10 | -5 | 26 | 24 | -43 | -55 | -63 | -53 | 90 | 143 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | -18 | -9 | -14 | -19 | -21 | -24 | -16 | -7 | 5 | 91 | 86 |
| Kyrgyz Republic | -3 | 1 | 21 | -27 | -21 | 8 | -40 | -21 | -57 | 92 | 149 |
| Israel | 11 | 3 | 44 | 26 | 33 | -4 | 17 | 0 | 27 | 93 | 66 |
| Estonia | -4 | -22 | -33 | -9 | -1 | -10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 94 | 93 |
| Uzbekistan | -8 | 0 | -4 | -8 | -3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 33 | 95 | 62 |
| Georgia | -8 | -49 | -12 | -11 | -12 | 29 | 26 | 11 | -10 | 96 | 106 |
| India | -1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 11 | -1 | 9 | -45 | -41 | 97 | 138 |
| Qatar | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -3 | 2 | 11 | 98 | 87 |
| Palestine | -2 | 0 | -15 | -15 | -70 | -47 | -37 | -33 | -31 | 99 | 130 |
| Armenia | -4 | -28 | -41 | -6 | -50 | -9 | 15 | -24 | 1 | 100 | 99 |
| Libya | -6 | -34 | -53 | -27 | -29 | 23 | 23 | -6 | 5 | 101 | 96 |
| Vietnam | 10 | 22 | -23 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -13 | 102 | 115 |
| Niger | -15 | -54 | -27 | -41 | -37 | -33 | -28 | -15 | -44 | 103 | 147 |
| Haiti | 39 | -4 | -22 | -29 | -24 | -24 | -17 | -27 | 12 | 104 | 92 |
| Azerbaijan | -3 | -3 | -3 | 4 | -22 | 8 | 29 | -30 | -3 | 105 | 108 |
| Madagascar | -4 | -12 | 6 | 24 | -12 | -38 | -44 | -53 | -40 | 106 | 146 |
| Mauritania | 4 | 19 | 39 | 10 | -14 | -7 | -21 | -35 | -26 | 107 | 133 |
| Korea DPR | -10 | 3 | -22 | 4 | 34 | 27 | -9 | 10 | 3 | 108 | 105 |
| Central African Republic | 0 | -98 | -87 | -113 | -73 | -38 | -76 | -40 | -52 | 108 | 160 |
| Jordan | -6 | -7 | -6 | -9 | -1 | 16 | -3 | 29 | 27 | 110 | 83 |
| Sierra Leone | 9 | -29 | -65 | -50 | -63 | -39 | -14 | -4 | -2 | 111 | 113 |
| Kenya | 1 | 9 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 11 | 9 | -34 | -2 | 112 | 114 |
| Bahrain | 0 | 22 | 18 | 41 | 34 | 21 | 37 | 43 | 24 | 113 | 89 |
| Mozambique | -5 | 19 | 23 | 12 | 16 | -22 | -6 | 4 | 16 | 114 | 98 |
| Philippines | -2 | -7 | -14 | -5 | -21 | -12 | -22 | -16 | -17 | 115 | 132 |
| Namibia | 8 | 33 | 14 | 2 | -4 | -6 | 17 | -22 | -1 | 116 | 117 |
| Kazakhstan | -3 | -1 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 | -12 | -25 | -9 | 117 | 126 |
| Zimbabwe | 0 | -22 | -9 | -9 | -12 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 118 | 101 |
| Tajikistan | 1 | 5 | -3 | -15 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 1 | -22 | 119 | 141 |
| New Zealand | -17 | 21 | 31 | -4 | 30 | 60 | 72 | 28 | 38 | 120 | 82 |
| Guinea-Bissau | -3 | -43 | -23 | -11 | -52 | -30 | -60 | -66 | -41 | 121 | 162 |
| Thailand | 0 | 19 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 122 | 110 |
| Malawi | -12 | -12 | 16 | 20 | 21 | -3 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 123 | 104 |
| Chinese Taipei | -1 | -6 | -3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -25 | -50 | 123 | 173 |
| Togo | -4 | 24 | 1 | -15 | -3 | -17 | -1 | 12 | 25 | 125 | 100 |
| Lithuania | 3 | 2 | 25 | 37 | 30 | 15 | 37 | 17 | 29 | 126 | 97 |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 10 | -8 | -8 | 0 | 30 | -17 | -36 | -30 | 4 | 126 | 122 |
| Sudan | 3 | -8 | -3 | 26 | 7 | -9 | 12 | 38 | 8 | 128 | 120 |
| Latvia | 4 | 20 | 17 | 50 | 30 | -1 | 15 | 29 | 27 | 129 | 102 |
| Turkmenistan | -3 | 8 | 5 | -2 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 130 | 127 |
| Andorra | 0 | -6 | -9 | -5 | -10 | -7 | -8 | -23 | -77 | 130 | 207 |
| Nicaragua | 6 | 2 | -10 | 9 | 24 | -1 | -33 | -32 | -4 | 132 | 136 |
| Yemen | -3 | 18 | 42 | 49 | 50 | 32 | 30 | -16 | -8 | 133 | 141 |
| Swaziland | 3 | 13 | 29 | 27 | 21 | 8 | -23 | -48 | -11 | 134 | 145 |
| St Kitts and Nevis | -4 | -27 | -31 | -10 | 16 | -23 | -45 | -41 | -1 | 135 | 136 |
| Rwanda | 7 | 20 | 13 | 23 | 1 | -15 | -10 | 15 | 21 | 136 | 115 |
| Angola | -2 | 12 | -1 | -7 | -2 | -11 | 19 | 31 | 28 | 137 | 109 |
| Myanmar | -4 | 10 | 17 | -2 | 1 | -14 | 6 | 4 | -16 | 138 | 154 |
| Botswana | -14 | -22 | 4 | 8 | -22 | -8 | -23 | 7 | 21 | 139 | 118 |
| Tanzania | 4 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 140 | 112 |
| Kosovo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -25 | -48 | 141 | 189 |
| Hong Kong | -5 | 8 | 23 | 12 | 21 | 23 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 142 | 143 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 6 | 10 | -12 | -62 | -30 | -65 | -41 | -10 | 20 | 143 | 123 |
| Solomon Islands | -1 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 6 | -20 | 143 | 163 |
| Afghanistan | 4 | -27 | -19 | -45 | -45 | -22 | -14 | -13 | -24 | 145 | 169 |
| Guatemala | 2 | 7 | -14 | -9 | 30 | -3 | -7 | 1 | 51 | 146 | 95 |
| Lesotho | 2 | 27 | 17 | 3 | -9 | -26 | 2 | -17 | -9 | 147 | 156 |
| Burundi | -2 | -3 | -5 | -12 | -7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 148 | 138 |
| Comoros | 1 | -10 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 9 | -16 | -29 | -25 | 149 | 174 |
| Maldives | 3 | 8 | 21 | 13 | 2 | 31 | 14 | -7 | -14 | 150 | 164 |
| Ethiopia | 23 | 14 | 7 | -10 | -9 | -19 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 151 | 121 |
| Dominican Republic | -2 | -15 | -38 | -73 | -36 | -51 | -21 | -26 | -12 | 152 | 164 |
| Suriname | -14 | -28 | -9 | -26 | 1 | 14 | 43 | -29 | 3 | 153 | 150 |
| New Caledonia | 17 | 13 | 16 | -31 | 12 | 41 | 48 | 33 | 24 | 154 | 130 |
| Mauritius | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 | -4 | -9 | -37 | -28 | -24 | 155 | 179 |
| South Sudan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | -5 | -42 | -52 | -44 | 156 | 200 |
| Tahiti | -3 | -16 | 5 | -39 | -19 | 3 | 2 | -26 | -18 | 157 | 175 |
| Liberia | 6 | -22 | -18 | -29 | -21 | 10 | -7 | 18 | 20 | 158 | 138 |
| Kuwait | -12 | -2 | -11 | 17 | 22 | 21 | 33 | 61 | 52 | 159 | 107 |
| Barbados | -7 | 3 | 26 | -4 | 15 | -26 | -18 | 11 | 3 | 160 | 157 |
| Nepal | -5 | -11 | -11 | 8 | -2 | 17 | 16 | 5 | -15 | 161 | 176 |
| Vanuatu | 10 | 21 | 17 | 38 | 38 | 45 | 29 | 25 | 10 | 162 | 152 |
| Belize | 3 | -23 | -37 | -42 | -22 | -18 | -53 | -26 | -5 | 163 | 168 |
| Indonesia | 1 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 28 | 16 | 164 | 148 |
| Fiji | -2 | 26 | 30 | 52 | 57 | 64 | 54 | 37 | 15 | 165 | 150 |
| Papua New Guinea | 0 | 3 | -12 | -10 | -6 | -2 | -8 | -40 | -32 | 166 | 198 |
| Cambodia | -5 | -10 | -10 | -5 | -5 | -15 | -19 | -27 | -39 | 166 | 205 |
| Grenada | 9 | -16 | 1 | -17 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 168 | 153 |
| Singapore | -6 | 15 | 24 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 169 | 159 |
| St Lucia | -3 | -11 | -15 | -60 | -60 | -62 | -49 | -15 | -21 | 170 | 191 |
| Malaysia | -4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 171 | 164 |
| Gambia | 9 | 10 | 8 | 58 | 42 | 55 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 172 | 119 |
| Puerto Rico | 4 | -28 | -24 | -30 | -1 | 6 | -2 | -27 | 15 | 173 | 158 |
| St Vincent and the Grenadines | -3 | -8 | -20 | -35 | -32 | -47 | -15 | 11 | 6 | 173 | 167 |
| Moldova | 0 | -9 | 38 | 29 | -2 | 18 | 44 | 39 | 50 | 175 | 125 |
| Chad | -20 | 3 | -28 | 10 | -4 | 33 | -29 | 20 | 42 | 175 | 133 |
| Dominica | -3 | -46 | -15 | -21 | -21 | -21 | -18 | 7 | -9 | 177 | 186 |
| Bermuda | 25 | 48 | -16 | 36 | 51 | 3 | 41 | 58 | 50 | 178 | 128 |
| Laos | -1 | -8 | -6 | -10 | -13 | -7 | -13 | -17 | -16 | 178 | 194 |
| Liechtenstein | -9 | -26 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -24 | 9 | 25 | 9 | 180 | 171 |
| Cuba | -12 | -27 | 15 | -41 | -35 | -22 | -6 | 35 | 46 | 181 | 135 |
| Guyana | -3 | -6 | -15 | 3 | 34 | 33 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 182 | 128 |
| Bhutan | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 3 | -37 | -19 | -37 | -23 | 183 | 206 |
| Malta | -5 | -1 | -15 | -6 | -31 | -19 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 184 | 172 |
| Macau | -1 | -17 | -8 | -5 | -6 | -22 | -10 | -23 | -24 | 185 | 209 |
| Mongolia | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 31 | 21 | 8 | 186 | 178 |
| São Tomé e PrÃncipe | 0 | 0 | -72 | -31 | -21 | -6 | -33 | -16 | -7 | 186 | 193 |
| Aruba | -1 | 3 | -31 | -45 | -74 | -44 | -49 | -16 | 1 | 188 | 187 |
| Seychelles | -1 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -2 | 0 | -11 | 0 | -7 | 188 | 195 |
| Guam | -2 | 0 | -1 | -18 | -17 | -18 | -26 | -4 | 3 | 190 | 187 |
| Timor-Leste | 0 | -6 | -2 | -21 | -14 | -62 | -34 | -15 | -21 | 190 | 211 |
| Cook Islands | 12 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 17 | -15 | 7 | 9 | 192 | 183 |
| American Samoa | 0 | 3 | -18 | -8 | -7 | 0 | -28 | -8 | -4 | 192 | 196 |
| Bangladesh | -4 | 8 | -4 | -4 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 194 | 182 |
| Brunei Darussalam | -2 | 6 | 13 | -2 | 5 | -4 | 8 | -2 | 6 | 195 | 189 |
| Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 195 | 201 |
| Samoa | -1 | 13 | -23 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -13 | 6 | 13 | 197 | 184 |
| Djibouti | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 2 | -9 | -6 | 197 | 203 |
| US Virgin Islands | 0 | -5 | -20 | -10 | -7 | -30 | -6 | -1 | 0 | 199 | 199 |
| Sri Lanka | -4 | 10 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 20 | 200 | 180 |
| Pakistan | -2 | 1 | 13 | -1 | -5 | 2 | 24 | 32 | 31 | 201 | 170 |
| Cayman Islands | -1 | -13 | -1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 21 | 202 | 181 |
| San Marino | 0 | -8 | -4 | -3 | -4 | -17 | -9 | -6 | -7 | 203 | 210 |
| British Virgin Islands | -3 | -12 | 3 | -7 | -3 | -11 | -3 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 202 |
| Montserrat | 0 | -7 | -4 | -32 | -41 | -25 | -11 | -5 | 0 | 204 | 204 |
| Eritrea | 3 | 30 | 31 | 40 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 45 | 45 | 206 | 161 |
| Bahamas | -2 | 17 | -11 | 3 | 15 | 24 | 28 | 31 | 30 | 206 | 176 |
| Somalia | -1 | 14 | 14 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 20 | 23 | 22 | 206 | 184 |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | -2 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 18 | -4 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 206 | 192 |
| Tonga | 0 | 4 | -8 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 206 | 197 |
| Anguilla | 0 | -10 | -8 | -3 | -3 | -1 | -4 | -2 | -2 | 206 | 208 |
Spotlight on some distinctive teams:
- Belgium's ranking position with new method trailed all the years between 10 and 20 positions after the FIFA-ranking. So their climb up the FIFA-ranking was followed but slower. They would be 12th this June with new method; in FIFA they were 3rd.
- Switzerland same story: their new ranking was every year between 5 and 15 positions lower than their FIFA-ranking. They would be 16th this June with new method; in FIFA they were 6th.
- Wales would never be as high with the new method as they reached in FIFA-ranking: since 2012 their ranking trailed more than 30 positions after FIFA's position. They would be 48th this June with new method; in FIFA they were 18th.
- Iceland started at spot 78 in May 2010. Same story, they trailed since 2012 some 30 positions after FIFA's position. They would be 51st this June with new method; in FIFA they were 22nd.
Where some teams are falling behind in ranking position with new method compared to FIFA, other teams would be higher placed with the new method: f.i. Spain, Mexico, Netherlands, USA, Iran and Russia. Also a lot of African teams would be higher placed: f.i. Ethiopia, Cote d'Ivoire, Angola, Togo, Rwanda and Egypt.
Regarding new recently shining stars like Curacao and Kosovo the positions with the new method evidently stay far behind compared to their FIFA-ranking. Curacao had the last two years a negative difference of some 80 positions. They were calculated with the new method as 154th in June; officially they were 81st.
The extreme differences between both June 2018 rankings are:
54 - Guyana (FIFA 182, new 128)
53 - Gambia (FIFA 172, new 119)
52 - Kuwait (FIFA 159, new 107)
51 - Guatemala (FIFA 146, new 95)
and
-77 - Andorra (FIFA 130, new 207)
-73 - Curacao (FIFA 81, new 154)
-57 - Kyrgyzstan (FIFA 92, new 149)
-53 - Faroe Islands (FIFA 90, new 143)
General conclusion: the new method is slow to react, just like it's role model the elo rating. Especially new 'in form' teams will have to be patient to climb the ranking, given the current I-factors and scaling factor in the formula.
A lot more can be analysed. With my model I can also easily compute the effects of other months as a starting ranking. So if you have specific interests, just ask.
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Thanks Ed for your efforts.Applying New method looks more fair and logic at least to my NT Jordan, in which would be 83th instead of 110th in Fifa calculation method.
ReplyDeleteBelgium would have barely if ever made it to Pot 1 in qualifying draws? Oh come on!
ReplyDeleteInteresting, thanks. Is it possible to see the points too, to see how big is inflaction after 8 years? This ranking will reward performances in the long period, I think probably the initial intent was to avoid that teams like Italy or Netherlands can not drop too more after an occasional bad performance, and teams like Wales or Poland can not climb too mutch after occasional good performance or easy group in the qualifiers. However something seem wrong, constants are exagerately too small, they started from the ranking done by the flawed previous system and now there are overrated and underrated teams, many years are needed until the ranking will turn into something a bit realistic expecially for small nations.
ReplyDeleteI think it's clear that the new system is now going to be too slow to respond to changes in team quality. Given that a particular generation might only peak for 2-3 years, it's a bit useless if the ranking takes that long to 'catch-up' with form/quality. I predict that they'll have to adapt it within a few years to make it more responsive.
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff!
ReplyDeleteQuestion. What starting value did you give to the new and returning teams? Kosovo, Gibraltar and South Sudan joined after 2010 and São Tomé & PrÃncipe wasn't ranked in 2010 because of inactivity.
Those 4 were all given a starting value of 864, the lowest starting value in May 2010.
DeleteWhat I expect to happen when a new team is introduced, is that it gets the lowest rating at the moment of its introduction, but my assumption was a bit easier to implement and anyway it is yet unknown what FIFA will do in these circumstances.
For instance when Kosovo was introduced in the ranking (July 2016) the lowest rating in the previous ranking (May 2016) was Timor-Leste with 772.
hopefully the phils go up..pls follow also spursandsport.blogspot.com
ReplyDeleteHello Ed, your conclusion is making much sense that the current fifa ranking makes it very hard for the teams to climb. Can you do an analysis for the African teams to be placed in pot 1 in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers assuming that the draw will be after the next African cup in June 2019? Can you please do simulations for this and let us know Egypt chances of getting pot 1 and what they need to do and achieve in the African cup.
ReplyDeleteOh dear Afghanistan at 169th
ReplyDeleteAlisher, I calculated all the matches from May 24th 2010 with the new method. The same method FIFA applies since June 4th 2018.
ReplyDeleteThat's the reason why I compare with the June 2018 ranking, because that ranking is the last one calculated with the 'old' FIFA-method.
I'm also curious to what ranking this exercise will lead us, so I will do that as soon as I can find the time.
ReplyDeleteI have to have starting values for all teams. I will use the first ranking from August 1993 for that.
If you calculate the all time rankings, it really doesn't matter what starting values you use, the ranking order and differences would be the same, since there were enough matches (Elo converges, that's what makes it so good)
ReplyDeleteHere's the top-50 of the October 2018 ranking, all matches from August 1993 calculated with the new method. You see the ranked teams with points, minimum and maximum rank during that period and in the last column the points difference compared to the start. All new teams in this period got a starting value of 968 points, the minimum value of the last team in the August 1993 ranking.
ReplyDelete1 - Brazil - 2048 - 1 - 4 - 476
2 - France - 1984 - 1 - 22 - 428
3 - Germany - 1956 - 1 - 10 - 356
4 - Spain - 1951 - 1 - 14 - 399
5 - Belgium - 1891 - 5 - 58 - 355
6 - Argentina - 1889 - 2 - 15 - 305
7 - Portugal - 1866 - 6 - 23 - 350
8 - Netherlands - 1840 - 2 - 17 - 296
9 - England - 1835 - 5 - 16 - 275
10 - Uruguay - 1811 - 6 - 38 - 291
11 - Colombia - 1808 - 6 - 31 - 276
12 - Chile - 1793 - 6 - 56 - 381
12 - Croatia - 1793 - 12 - 117 - 645
14 - Mexico - 1792 - 4 - 21 - 244
15 - Italy - 1775 - 1 - 15 - 179
16 - USA - 1727 - 9 - 33 - 231
17 - Iran - 1695 - 15 - 61 - 303
18 - Switzerland - 1694 - 4 - 47 - 102
19 - Sweden - 1672 - 2 - 33 - 84
20 - Japan - 1668 - 8 - 56 - 232
21 - Peru - 1659 - 17 - 82 - 327
22 - Denmark - 1649 - 4 - 36 - 85
23 - Korea Republic - 1644 - 10 - 38 - 180
24 - Russia - 1629 - 6 - 41 - 53
25 - Australia - 1618 - 12 - 53 - 218
26 - Costa Rica - 1602 - 16 - 57 - 150
27 - Paraguay - 1595 - 17 - 64 - 251
28 - Poland - 1587 - 23 - 56 - 59
29 - Senegal - 1584 - 25 - 74 - 204
30 - Ghana - 1578 - 16 - 61 - 162
31 - Ukraine - 1573 - 30 - 131 - 481
32 - Ecuador - 1572 - 21 - 54 - 104
32 - Nigeria - 1572 - 4 - 36 - 32
34 - Tunisia - 1563 - 24 - 48 - 79
35 - Turkey - 1556 - 16 - 63 - 196
36 - Cote d'Ivoire - 1555 - 9 - 48 - 63
37 - Czech Republic - 1549 - 7 - 37 - 1
38 - Egypt - 1541 - 11 - 41 - 37
39 - Cameroon - 1539 - 13 - 48 - 27
40 - Republic of Ireland - 1537 - 5 - 40 - -43
41 - Venezuela - 1535 - 37 - 127 - 295
42 - Morocco - 1529 - 16 - 62 - 53
43 - Serbia - 1521 - 14 - 57 - 133
44 - Romania - 1518 - 7 - 49 - -6
45 - Saudi Arabia - 1507 - 19 - 50 - 75
46 - Uzbekistan - 1498 - 37 - 169 - 530
47 - Greece - 1495 - 20 - 53 - 15
48 - Wales - 1490 - 24 - 88 - -10
49 - Scotland - 1483 - 20 - 58 - -5
50 - Bosnia-Herzegovina - 1482 - 50 - 197 - 514
You see the usual suspects on top. Much higher positions for the Asian powerhouses than they are now. 8 African top teams in the top-50. 9 Out of 10 CONMEBOL-teams to been seen here too. Only 5 teams occupied the number 1 position in all that time.
Iceland on 59, Curacao on 153, Kosovo on 167, Andorra and San Marino still on spot 210 and 211.
Great job, Ed!
DeleteI think this analysis shows, at least in part, the effect of dropping the continental coefficients from the old FIFA ranking system. Eliminating the coefficients probably hurt some second-tier European teams that had fewer notable wins. It also helps teams like USA and Costa Rica, who no longer have every competitive match in their region "diluted" by a lesser coefficient.
ReplyDelete