2021 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding (25 november 2018)

The qualifying campaign for the U-21 EURO 2019 in Italy/San Marino has finished and the draw for the final tournament has been made last Friday.

Next in December/January the draw of the qualification for the U-21 EURO 2021 will take place. The host for this tournament will be announced at the UEFA Executive Committee meeting in Dublin on December 2nd/3rd.

This draw will be seeded based on the U-21 NT coefficient ranking.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (20 October)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the second match day.
Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (24 November)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the third match day. The match British Virgin Islands - Bonaire was postponed to a later date.

Simulation results after the first and second match day can be found respectively here and here.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday November 29th. Only four matches to be played until then: the final round of the group stage of the South East Asian Championship 2018 this weekend.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

	min pts	low pos	max pts	high pos
Malaysia	979	170	984	167
Myanmar	1085	139	1090	138
Vietnam	1219	103	1224	100
Cambodia	970	172	975	172
Indonesia	1000	162	1005	159
Philippines	1173	115	1178	113
Thailand	1156	122	1161	118
Singapore	991	165	996	163

In the table below I've used their current points and positions.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until November 25th, used to calculate the November 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2018 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 29th.

Lots of matches to be played this International Match Calendar window: 159 matches are scheduled with 136 currently in FIFA's fixture list.

Also check the probable November ranking.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable ranking

Here is the probable November 2018 ranking, to be published on November 29th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 136 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list. 
A total of 159 matches is scheduled to be played until the deadline of November 25th. 17 Scheduled friendlies are not yet included, as are 6 matches featuring non-FIFA members.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2018 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The new FIFA calculation: a brief comparative analysis (II)

See here for my previous post about the new FIFA calculation method. It explains how I came by the set of numbers used here.

There are suspicions that the number of points to be gained per match in relation to the points gaps that will occur in the ranking when using the new method for a prolonged period, will result in too little chances to improve a team's ranking in an relatively short amount of time. The previous post showed that the climb in ranking positions for 'ín form' teams indeed was (much) slower than in the 'old' FIFA-ranking.