CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (24 November)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the third match day. The match British Virgin Islands - Bonaire was postponed to a later date.

Simulation results after the first and second match day can be found respectively here and here.

The 6 teams that played the Hexagonal to qualify for the World Cup 2018 -Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago- are automatically placed in league A and are also qualified for the Gold Cup 2019.

The top 6 of the resulting qualifying ranking also qualify for league A. The next 16 teams (7-22) qualify for league B and the last 12 teams (23-34) qualify for league C. Guatemala does not play these qualifiers because they were suspended by FIFA at the time of the draw.

And last but not least: the top 10 of this ranking also qualifies for the Gold Cup 2019, which will be expanded to 16 teams.

The teams below are sorted by their average ranking position. Presented are the probabilities to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and also for the Gold Cup 2019.

team	league A	league B	league C	Gold Cup
Haiti	99,99%	0,01%	0,00%	100,00%
Canada	99,43%	0,57%	0,00%	100,00%
Curacao	100,00%	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%
Jamaica	84,95%	15,05%	0,00%	100,00%
Cuba	92,61%	7,39%	0,00%	100,00%
Martinique	72,26%	27,74%	0,00%	99,91%
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Dominican Republic	14,74%	85,26%	0,00%	68,52%
Bermuda	16,43%	83,57%	0,00%	44,93%
St. Kitts and Nevis	14,98%	85,02%	0,00%	50,12%
Nicaragua	3,60%	96,40%	0,00%	53,72%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
El Salvador	0,39%	99,61%	0,00%	38,42%
Belize	0,21%	99,79%	0,00%	31,08%
French Guyana	0,41%	99,59%	0,00%	21,63%
Guyana	0,00%	96,95%	3,05%	43,12%
St. Lucia	0,00%	93,59%	6,41%	11,64%
Suriname	0,00%	95,52%	4,48%	27,63%
Montserrat	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%	6,59%
Barbados	0,00%	84,11%	15,89%	2,46%
Dominica	0,00%	74,17%	25,83%	0,02%
Guadeloupe	0,00%	60,74%	39,26%	0,02%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0,00%	74,09%	25,91%	0,00%
Aruba	0,00%	59,97%	40,03%	0,19%
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Antigua and Barbuda	0,00%	59,44%	40,56%	0,00%
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,00%	46,30%	53,70%	0,00%
Grenada	0,00%	32,39%	67,61%	0,00%
Cayman Islands	0,00%	7,45%	92,55%	0,00%
Bonaire	0,00%	9,89%	90,11%	0,00%
British Virgin Islands	0,00%	5,28%	94,72%	0,00%
Bahamas	0,00%	0,10%	99,90%	0,00%
Anguilla	0,00%	0,01%	99,99%	0,00%
Puerto Rico	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%
US Virgin Islands	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%
St. Martin	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%
St. Maarten	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%

Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league A

Cuba 44% Curacao 35% Canada 21% Haiti 19% Jamaica 12%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league A

El Salvador	-45%
Nicaragua	-29%
Dominican Republic	-26%
St. Kitts and Nevis	-14%
Guadeloupe	-8%

Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league B

Montserrat 65% El Salvador 45% Turks and Caicos Islands 37% Nicaragua 29% Dominican Republic 26%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league B

Cuba	-44%
Curacao	-35%
Cayman Islands	-27%
Bahamas	-27%
Aruba	-25%

Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for league C

Aruba	33%
Guadeloupe	32%
Cayman Islands	27%
Bahamas	27%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	18%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for league C

Montserrat	-65%
Turks and Caicos Islands	-37%
Bermuda	-31%
Dominica	-23%
Belize	-12%

Top 5 increase (%) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup

Bermuda	33%
Cuba	26%
Curacao	15%
Martinique	13%
Belize	13%

Top 5 decrease (%) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup

El Salvador	-36%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	-35%
Aruba	-21%
Guadeloupe	-20%
St. Lucia	-17%

Average number of points per position in the resulting qualification ranking:

1	11,96
2	11,70
3	10,99
4	10,06
5	9,35
6	9,04
7	8,92
8	8,48
9	7,78
10	7,26
11	7,04
12	6,91
13	6,66
14	6,34
15	6,11
16	6,01
17	5,95
18	5,80
19	5,51
20	5,11
21	4,66
22	4,31
23	4,10
24	3,99
25	3,85
26	3,56
27	3,21
28	2,94
29	2,58
30	1,93
31	1,29
32	0,82
33	0,39
34	0,07

The probabilities to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and also for the Gold Cup 2019 per Win/Draw/Loss combination:

W/D/L - combination	League A	League B	League C	Gold Cup
4 wins	100,00%	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%
3 wins, 1 draw	100,00%	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%
3 wins, 1 loss	47,56%	52,44%	0,00%	99,35%
2 wins, 2 draws *	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%
2 wins, 1 draw	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%	37,34%
2 wins, 2 losses	0,00%	99,87%	0,13%	0,00%
1 win, 3 draws *	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%
1 win, 2 draws	0,00%	93,85%	6,15%	0,00%
1 win, 1 draw	0,00%	30,03%	69,97%	0,00%
1 win, 3 losses	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%
4 draws *	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%
3 draws *	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%	0,00%
2 draws	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%
1 draw	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%
4 losses	0,00%	0,00%	100,00%	0,00%

* can't occur anymore

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